WBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

bblover · February 22, 2012, 02:26:48 PM

Based on watching only a few games this season and proven record of not being able to predict games, I am going to forecast that IWU is going to fall to Milliken in a major upset. I do not think IWU is that good; they played well-above their talent level to win so many this year, a real compliment to their coach. However, if they lose, IWU will get an at-large bid. Carthage will beat Wheaton, and Carthage will beat Milliken in the final. If IWU does manage to get by Milliken, I expect the Wheaton/Carthage winner to get the conference bid.

iwu70 · February 22, 2012, 03:38:51 PM

bblover, I think you will continue your "proven record."

Titans have won games with their talent, speed, defense and dedication to full court pressure . . . and surely they have the talent level to play this kind of game, esp. on their home floor. Offensively, running the floor and Olivia Lett's consistent exceptional offensive abilities have carried the day for the Titans. Don't really know how Olivia can play any further "above her talent level," though I'd love to see that!!!

I expect The Titans to beat MU by more than 10, then face a much tougher matchup in the championship game. Both CC and WC are good, tough teams -- though very different in personnel and approach. On recent form, one would have to pick WC, though I earlier thought it would be Carthage. We'll see. WC had a marvelous "tuneup" game at Augie, so will be very ready for this weekend. They seem to live and die by the trey. CC will have to stay with their speed and defend the perimeter shooters, rebound the ball very well, to win vs. WC this weekend.

Hope all the chatroom chatsters are planning to make the trip to The Shirk for three very good games. The Shirk is always a marvelous place to enjoy DIII hoops when the place is full and jumping. Welcome all!!!

Guess we'll see new regional rankings and the All-CCIW team selections later today or tomorrow.

IWU70

Hoosier Titan · February 22, 2012, 04:13:12 PM

Quote from: bblover on February 22, 2012, 02:26:48 PM
Based on watching only a few games this season and proven record of not being able to predict games, I am going to forecast that IWU is going to fall to Milliken in a major upset. I do not think IWU is that good; they played well-above their talent level to win so many this year, a real compliment to their coach. However, if they lose, IWU will get an at-large bid. Carthage will beat Wheaton, and Carthage will beat Milliken in the final. If IWU does manage to get by Milliken, I expect the Wheaton/Carthage winner to get the conference bid.

bblover,

I think you have just made Mia Smith's motivational talk for the first game a lot easier! She'll just have to print out your post and show it to the players. I am interested as to how you've concluded that IWU is "not that good" and have played above their talent level if you haven't seen them play.

All four coaches are pros and the players will give their all. I have no idea who will win the Wheaton-Carthage matchup, and I never predict how a team I follow will do. I am looking forward to all the weekend's games, though!

thunder38 · February 22, 2012, 04:38:49 PM

All-Conference selections come out tomorrow as the men's came out today.

New regional rankings are out and IWU sits #6 in the Central. Given that they sit that low and behind Wash U and 3 WIAC teams, IWU's Pool C chances aren't the lock that everyone is making them out to be. Especially given the depth of the Great Lakes Region and the in-region records of those teams IWU may actually need the AQ to get in. After seeing the Regional Rankings today, the only way the CCIW has a chance of being a 2-bid league is if someone knocks off IWU in the championship game.

thunder38 · February 22, 2012, 04:46:36 PM

Quote from: bblover on February 22, 2012, 02:26:48 PM
Based on watching only a few games this season and proven record of not being able to predict games, I am going to forecast that IWU is going to fall to Milliken in a major upset. I do not think IWU is that good; they played well-above their talent level to win so many this year, a real compliment to their coach. However, if they lose, IWU will get an at-large bid. Carthage will beat Wheaton, and Carthage will beat Milliken in the final. If IWU does manage to get by Milliken, I expect the Wheaton/Carthage winner to get the conference bid.

I agree that the "proven record" will continue to be the trend here. Illinois Wesleyan is still the class of the conference and despite getting challenged a little more frequently on the road this year than past years, they still have more than enough talent to dispatch Millikin by double digits. I'm with Backseat here that this will be closer to the blowout from earlier this year at the Shirk, than it will be to the close game these two teams played at the Griz a couple weeks ago.

I do agree that the Wheaton/Carthage game will be a tossup. It was pointed out that I forgot to mention Corcoran in my previous breakdown, and that's because Wheaton's game plan has seemingly been to let Corcoran get her points by attempt to slow down Jacklin because despite Corcoran's First-Team level talent, Jacklin is still a much more dynamic player. I was in no way trying to minimize the talent of Corcoran, but instead was looking at the fact that Wheaton's game plans in the two Carthage games this year has been in limiting Jacklin and letting Corcoran "get hers".

I expect Carthage will really try to ugly that game because Wheaton has the advantage in a track-meet style game. That being said, I expect a game more in the 50s than I do in the 70s.

Just as far as matchups go I think Wheaton matches up better with IWU than Carthage, and having the win over the Titans in their pockets already this year. But beating IWU at King and beating them at the Shirk are indeed different and I hesitate to say Wheaton is ready to tackle that animal yet.

iwu70 · February 22, 2012, 05:17:27 PM

Yes, IWU ranked 6th in Central region, as Whitewater enters the picture. UC gets a Pool A, and one of the WI teams likely gets a Pool A, but that would still have three Central regional teams ahead of IWU. I agree that the Titans are not a "lock" on Pool C, depends what happens with other Pool A bids, and in other regions. To be sure, of course, best to win the tourney and get the AQ. Titans have a strong record, strong schedule, losses pretty much only against top 25 teams, but still would be best to be sure and win the AQ. Nice to be playing at home.

GO TITANS!!!

IWU70

Backseat Driver · February 22, 2012, 05:24:02 PM

Quote from: Hoosier Titan on February 22, 2012, 04:13:12 PM
Quote from: bblover on February 22, 2012, 02:26:48 PM
Based on watching only a few games this season and proven record of not being able to predict games, I am going to forecast that IWU is going to fall to Milliken in a major upset. I do not think IWU is that good; they played well-above their talent level to win so many this year, a real compliment to their coach. However, if they lose, IWU will get an at-large bid. Carthage will beat Wheaton, and Carthage will beat Milliken in the final. If IWU does manage to get by Milliken, I expect the Wheaton/Carthage winner to get the conference bid.

bblover,

I think you have just made Mia Smith's motivational talk for the first game a lot easier! She'll just have to print out your post and show it to the players. I am interested as to how you've concluded that IWU is "not that good" and have played above their talent level if you haven't seen them play.

All four coaches are pros and the players will give their all. I have no idea who will win the Wheaton-Carthage matchup, and I never predict how a team I follow will do. I am looking forward to all the weekend's games, though!

If Mia Smith has to scour the message boards to motivate her team, then bblover might be right about their chances against Millikin

In seriousness though, I would be absolutely shocked if IWU loses on Friday. It's not impossible, but to me it's the highest degree of unlikely. And I'm not trying to bash Millikin, because they are a quality team with a top-notch coach. I just think IWU is on another level right now.

IWU has played one of the toughest schedules out there, and is 20-5. To say that they are not very good is quite silly, although something tells me that bblover was typing tongue-in-cheek.

thunder38 · February 22, 2012, 06:22:18 PM

In all fairness BD, North Central beating Millikin and Millikin still making the tournament was the highest degree of unlikely. Ooops

Hoosier Titan · February 22, 2012, 06:23:18 PM

Quote from: Backseat Driver on February 22, 2012, 05:24:02 PM

If Mia Smith has to scour the message boards to motivate her team, then bblover might be right about their chances against Millikin

IF she needed to do that, I would agree. Fortunately, I doubt very much that she's anywhere near these boards. And she's done a great job of motivating them for five years' worth of championships now.

I have to say that after quite a few decades of watching basketball--women's and men's, Division III and Division I, including the last undefeated DI men's team--I have never seen a player so far above the level of all the other players as Olivia Lett. Last year's IWU team had more stars, but she has lifted her level of play immensely. It's a pleasure to watch her, and she made it easier to decide whether to follow the IWU women or men this weekend.

Mr. Ypsi · February 22, 2012, 08:26:22 PM

While it would seem that IWU should be a lock for a Pool C, they would likely be the FOURTH team from the Central to even reach the table for discussion. I'm gonna be really nervous if they don't win the AQ. (Fortunately, I'm pretty confident they will.)

spencer1988 · February 23, 2012, 12:33:22 AM

This is my prediction for this weekend in Bloomington.

Carthage beats Wheaton in a close ugly game.
IWU beats Millikin by 20

Carthage beats IWU in a slugfest.

Backseat Driver · February 23, 2012, 07:37:58 AM

Quote from: Hoosier Titan on February 22, 2012, 06:23:18 PM
Quote from: Backseat Driver on February 22, 2012, 05:24:02 PM

If Mia Smith has to scour the message boards to motivate her team, then bblover might be right about their chances against Millikin

IF she needed to do that, I would agree. Fortunately, I doubt very much that she's anywhere near these boards. And she's done a great job of motivating them for five years' worth of championships now.

That was my point.

RogK · February 23, 2012, 10:50:25 AM

Previous all-conference honors for players currently in the league:
Beth Wellbaum (3rd team), Meghan Merklein (2nd, 3rd), Megan Ney (2nd, 3rd), Lindsey Brenneman (2nd, 2nd), Kamauria Acree (2nd), Diana Jacklin (1st, 2nd), Julia Robert (3rd), Brooke Olson (3rd), Olivia Lett (2nd), Laura Karsten (1st/MOP).

iwu70 · February 23, 2012, 12:39:02 PM

Earlier, I said Carthage over WC in the semis, but have changed my mind, due to WC's recent form.

For the CCIW tourney,

WC over Carthage, very close game
IWU over MU, by 10 or more

Final:

IWU over WC by about 5-7

Titans want, need to be sure about getting into the Dance. No Pool C drama required. Just win out. Last games Hasselbring, Solaria and Lett play on the Shirk hardwoods in CCIW play. Finish strong, TITANS!!!

GO TITANS!!!

IWU70

iwu70 · February 23, 2012, 12:46:53 PM

All-Conference selections up, on the CCIW site.

Congrats to Coach Smith, Coach of the Year and Olivia Lett, first-team All-CCIW and MOP of the Year!!! Both much deserved.

Congrats to Melissa Gardner second team, and Britt Hasselbring third team. All good.

Kudos to all the other honorees from the various CCIW teams. Good luck especially to all the seniors in their future endeavors.

Should be a great weekend of D3 hoops this weekend, men and women.

IWU70