WBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[thunder38]

Maybe some others with a better lay of the land can help me out here but at 17-3 but with a soft strength of schedule, where does Wheaton sit in the Pool C conversation. At the very least, assuming they lose to Carthage next Saturday and then lose the tournament semifinal they would head into Selection Monday at 21-5.

You've overlooked the fact that one of Wheaton's games was against a non-regional foe, NAIA Clarke. That game won't count towards Wheaton's in-region winning percentage. In other words, Wheaton will go into the CCIW tourney having played only 24 relevant games in the eyes of the selection committee, rather than 25.

If Wheaton wins out until the conference tourney semifinal, save for another loss to Carthage on February 16, WC would be sitting at .800 (20-5) in region on Selection Monday. If Wheaton wins out until the conference tourney final (presumably a loss to host Carthage), save for that loss on February 19 to the Lady Reds, WC would finish at .808 (21-5) in region. Either way, the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance would be a shoo-in for a Pool C slot, regardless of SOS, because the in-region winning percentage would be so high. I'm pretty sure that no team with an .800 in-region winning percentage has ever been left out of either the women's tournament or the men's tournament since the NCAA set up the pools system as its current basketball tourney format for D3.

That was my assumption but I wanted to defer to someone with a bit more experience so thanks for that Greg.

[iwu70]

Congrats to Ms. Bohlen on Player of the Week.  She had a devastatingly good game against my Titans, hitting trey after trey. 

Looks like CC and WC get into the DIII dance, unless the Titans pull off a big upset in the CCIW tournament.

Go Titans, keep fighting.  Lots of basketball to be played. 

IWU70

[Mr. Ypsi]

Carthage finally edges into the Top 25 (AT #25, 1 point shy of 24, but also only 1 point above 26!).  Wheaton still shut out the voting entirely.

[RogK]

thunder38 mentioned Breanna Bohlen as someone who could make all-conference this year. In addition to her, Coach Madsen has several others that are worthy of consideration. Obviously Brooke Olson will be 1st team, possibly she or Stephanie Kuzmanic as MOP. After Olson, Maris Hovee may be the most important Wheaton player : she is a major defensive force, blocking a fair amount of shots and altering/discouraging many more; also a top rebounder and dishes out a large quantity of assists. Hannah Considine has had a number of outstanding games and should not be discriminated against for being a freshman.
If Carthage goes 14-0, they could get 4 on all-CCIW. Kuzmanic could be MOP and definitely should be joined on the 1st team by Cailee Corcoran. I'd also include Michelle Wenzel as all-conference, but Coach Bernero could also suggest Haley Stercic and Kristi Schmidt or ?? When you look at Carthage players' stats, add credit to the individuals for their excellent team defense.

[iwumichigander]

Carthage finally edges into the Top 25 (AT #25, 1 point shy of 24, but also only 1 point above 26!).  Wheaton still shut out the voting entirely.

It will be interesting to see the regional rankings.  Carthage should make the regional rankings and maybe Wheaton.   Getting in to the 1st regional ranking Feb 6th might help their cases with respect to Top 25 voters. 

[thunder38]

With Carthage now in the Top 25 Wheaton only has one loss to a non-Top 25 team, granted its a very bad loss but at 17-3 I would think they should at least be getting a few votes considering they were on the verge of the Top 25 prior to the loss at Carthage.

[RogK]

The remaining schedules for the lower 5/8ths of the league :
AUG (2-8) : M, NC, at E, at IW;
MIL (2-8) : at A, W, at IW, NC;
ELM (3-7) : C, at NP, A, at W;
NC (4-6) : IW, at A, NP, at M;
NP (4-6) : W, E, at NC, at C;
Based on the above, I predict that neither Augie nor Millikin will finish at 7-7.

[Backseat Driver]

Maybe some others with a better lay of the land can help me out here but at 17-3 but with a soft strength of schedule, where does Wheaton sit in the Pool C conversation. At the very least, assuming they lose to Carthage next Saturday and then lose the tournament semifinal they would head into Selection Monday at 21-5.

You've overlooked the fact that one of Wheaton's games was against a non-regional foe, NAIA Clarke. That game won't count towards Wheaton's in-region winning percentage. In other words, Wheaton will go into the CCIW tourney having played only 24 relevant games in the eyes of the selection committee, rather than 25.

If Wheaton wins out until the conference tourney semifinal, save for another loss to Carthage on February 16, WC would be sitting at .800 (20-5) in region on Selection Monday. If Wheaton wins out until the conference tourney final (presumably a loss to host Carthage), save for that loss on February 19 to the Lady Reds, WC would finish at .808 (21-5) in region. Either way, the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance would be a shoo-in for a Pool C slot, regardless of SOS, because the in-region winning percentage would be so high. I'm pretty sure that no team with an .800 in-region winning percentage has ever been left out of either the women's tournament or the men's tournament since the NCAA set up the pools system as its current basketball tourney format for D3.

A couple of quick thoughts on this...

1. Wheaton still has a game coming up against NAIA-Robert Morris, so the numbers will be different.

2. In 2004-2005, Wheaton finished 22-4, 13-1 in the CCIW. The Thunder tied eventual national-champion Millikin for the CCIW regular-season title, but lost to IWU by 2 in the CCIW semifinal. Wheaton was not selected as a Pool C. Wheaton's '04-'05 non conference:

W vs. Aurora
W vs. Benedictine
W vs. Dominican
W vs. Wisconsin Lutheran
L vs. Calvin
L vs. Hope
W vs. Lake Forest
W vs. Texas Lutheran
W vs. Concordia (TX)
W vs. Southwestern
W vs. Clarke

So Wheaton's 4 losses were to Calvin, Hope, Millikin, and IWU that year, and they played one non D-III opponent (Clarke). I'm not sure how the "in-region" winning percentage breaks down for that, but it looks pretty similar to what Wheaton has done this year. And I think Wheaton's loss to Augie this year looks worse than their "bad" loss to IWU in '04-'05.

I realize this is a different scenario, and the projections you guys have brought up include a win in the CCIW semi-final. Maybe a win against IWU in '04-'05 would have gotten Wheaton selected, but I guess the point I'm making is that I think Wheaton really should focus on winning the AQ this year. Regardless of record, it's best to not leave your fate to the selection committee.

[Gregory Sager]

Maybe some others with a better lay of the land can help me out here but at 17-3 but with a soft strength of schedule, where does Wheaton sit in the Pool C conversation. At the very least, assuming they lose to Carthage next Saturday and then lose the tournament semifinal they would head into Selection Monday at 21-5.

You've overlooked the fact that one of Wheaton's games was against a non-regional foe, NAIA Clarke. That game won't count towards Wheaton's in-region winning percentage. In other words, Wheaton will go into the CCIW tourney having played only 24 relevant games in the eyes of the selection committee, rather than 25.

If Wheaton wins out until the conference tourney semifinal, save for another loss to Carthage on February 16, WC would be sitting at .800 (20-5) in region on Selection Monday. If Wheaton wins out until the conference tourney final (presumably a loss to host Carthage), save for that loss on February 19 to the Lady Reds, WC would finish at .808 (21-5) in region. Either way, the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance would be a shoo-in for a Pool C slot, regardless of SOS, because the in-region winning percentage would be so high. I'm pretty sure that no team with an .800 in-region winning percentage has ever been left out of either the women's tournament or the men's tournament since the NCAA set up the pools system as its current basketball tourney format for D3.

A couple of quick thoughts on this...

1. Wheaton still has a game coming up against NAIA-Robert Morris, so the numbers will be different.

True. I was just looking at the d3hoops.com schedule for Wheaton when I made that post. For some reason, the d3hoops.com page for Wheaton does not include the game against Robert Morris.

I think that the numbers would've been different, anyway, because I'm expecting an NPU win over Wheaton tomorrow night.

[Mr. Ypsi]

thunder38 mentioned Breanna Bohlen as someone who could make all-conference this year. In addition to her, Coach Madsen has several others that are worthy of consideration. Obviously Brooke Olson will be 1st team, possibly she or Stephanie Kuzmanic as MOP. After Olson, Maris Hovee may be the most important Wheaton player : she is a major defensive force, blocking a fair amount of shots and altering/discouraging many more; also a top rebounder and dishes out a large quantity of assists. Hannah Considine has had a number of outstanding games and should not be discriminated against for being a freshman.
If Carthage goes 14-0, they could get 4 on all-CCIW. Kuzmanic could be MOP and definitely should be joined on the 1st team by Cailee Corcoran. I'd also include Michelle Wenzel as all-conference, but Coach Bernero could also suggest Haley Stercic and Kristi Schmidt or ?? When you look at Carthage players' stats, add credit to the individuals for their excellent team defense.

When I first read this I thought you were predicting up to 4 from Carthage on the first team, not overall, and checked CCIW.org to see how crazy that was!   During the Titans amazing 66-4 run the last five years, they had a first and 2 seconds in 2008 (13-1), 2 firsts, a second and a third in 2009 (14-0), the same again in 2009 (13-1), a first, a second and 2 thirds in 2011 (13-1), and a first, a second, and a third in 2012 (13-1).  For those unwilling to do the math, that's 3 years of 4 and 2 years of 3 (and only one of the five teams went 14-0), so it would not be at all out of line for Carthage to get 4 if they go 14-0 (or even 13-1).

[Backseat Driver]

Maybe some others with a better lay of the land can help me out here but at 17-3 but with a soft strength of schedule, where does Wheaton sit in the Pool C conversation. At the very least, assuming they lose to Carthage next Saturday and then lose the tournament semifinal they would head into Selection Monday at 21-5.

You've overlooked the fact that one of Wheaton's games was against a non-regional foe, NAIA Clarke. That game won't count towards Wheaton's in-region winning percentage. In other words, Wheaton will go into the CCIW tourney having played only 24 relevant games in the eyes of the selection committee, rather than 25.

If Wheaton wins out until the conference tourney semifinal, save for another loss to Carthage on February 16, WC would be sitting at .800 (20-5) in region on Selection Monday. If Wheaton wins out until the conference tourney final (presumably a loss to host Carthage), save for that loss on February 19 to the Lady Reds, WC would finish at .808 (21-5) in region. Either way, the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance would be a shoo-in for a Pool C slot, regardless of SOS, because the in-region winning percentage would be so high. I'm pretty sure that no team with an .800 in-region winning percentage has ever been left out of either the women's tournament or the men's tournament since the NCAA set up the pools system as its current basketball tourney format for D3.

A couple of quick thoughts on this...

1. Wheaton still has a game coming up against NAIA-Robert Morris, so the numbers will be different.

True. I was just looking at the d3hoops.com schedule for Wheaton when I made that post. For some reason, the d3hoops.com page for Wheaton does not include the game against Robert Morris.

I think that the numbers would've been different, anyway, because I'm expecting an NPU win over Wheaton tomorrow night.

Naturally...

It should definitely be another good game between Wheaton and North Park tomorrow, with both teams back at full strength. I think it's a "must win" for both teams, so the intensity and sense of urgency should be high on both sides.

[RogK]

Thanks, Mr. Ypsi, for doing that research. I couldn't resist a little speculation on possible all-conf selections, even though a lot of big games remain to be played.

[RogK]

Within conference play so far (10 games per team), the league scoring average is 68.2. Last season's avg in conf play was 62.1. This increase can be traced directly to North Central Coach Roof's decision to adapt "the System."
The average final score so far is 76.4 to 60.0. In 10 games involving North Central, the average final is 104.0 to 83.8. In the 30 games not involving NC, the average final is 67.2 to 52.0.
Proportionally, the North Central finals have been a bit closer (1.24 : 1) than those in the other 30 games (1.29 : 1).
The sums are as follows : 2015 for winners and 1560 for losers in the 30 games not involving NC; 1040 to 838 in the NC games. I'm trusting that the scores listed in the Composite Schedule on cciw.org are correct.
A few more items : The highest winning score in the 30 non-NC games is 83 by Carthage, while the lowest winning score in the NC games is 85, also by Carthage. The highest losing score in the 30 non-NC games is 67, matching the lowest losing score in any of the 10 NC games.

[RogK]

Tonight we have the unusual circumstance of a consequential 2-8 vs 2-8 game (Millikin at Augie).
If (and I'm not predicting this or any other results) Carthage, Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan all win (they would be favored to do so), then those contending for the 4th playoff spot would be two 4-7 teams (North Park and North Central) plus two 3-8 teams (Elmhurst and the Millikin/Augie winner). Could happen.

[thunder38]

Tonight we have the unusual circumstance of a consequential 2-8 vs 2-8 game (Millikin at Augie).
If (and I'm not predicting this or any other results) Carthage, Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan all win (they would be favored to do so), then those contending for the 4th playoff spot would be two 4-7 teams (North Park and North Central) plus two 3-8 teams (Elmhurst and the Millikin/Augie winner). Could happen.

And that likely explains a lot as to why the CCIW has gotten very little love nationally this year.