WBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[lmitzel]

I did this over on the men's board as well, but since I know Rog likes the advanced metrics, here's everyone's Pythagorean win percentage through the first round of conference play:

• IWU: 7.5-0.5
• NPU: 5.4-2.6
• Wheaton: 5.0-3.0
• Carthage: 4.6-3.4
• Millikin: 4.4-3.6
• Augie: 3.6-4.4
• Carroll: 2.1-5.9
• NCC: 1.8-6.2
• Elmhurst: 0-6.7.4

I think the most jarring one to me is 4-4 NCC being two games up on its Pythagorean win percentage, but if you factor out the drubbing at the hands of Illinois Wesleyan, they're a just-over-.500 team. That win I think is also why the Titans are so high on this list, while North Park's numbers are similar to NCC's in that if you remove the 31 point loss to the team in green, five single digit wins plus a 10 and 13 point victory help explain it.

Obviously, such a small sample size can really skew the results of this. I'll be interested to see how it looks after conference play is complete.

[RogK]

Thanks for figuring those Pythagoreans, lmitzel. I agree that a big margin in one game affects the formula a lot when the sample is only eight games.
However, I'm not necessarily a fan of advanced metrics. If I don't know what a particular formula ignores or what it gives value to, I don't pay attention to it.
The link you provided for Pythagorean does explain the calculation. The choice of which exponent to use seems arbitrary. Maybe they settled on 13.91 by working backwards, seeing which exponent produced the most accurate results.
I don't consider effective FG% to be an advanced metric. It's rather basic, using only "points scored from FGs" and "FG attempts".

[GoPerry]

Hide your eyes RogK.

At the midway point, I think it's Kendall Sosa and Jayla Johnson as neck and neck front runners for MOP with Hannah Frazier just a sliver below.  It will probably be a little dependent on how their team fares the rest of the way.  I really think Alexis Jones might actually be the most deserving of all those three but Augie's lack of team success will likely leave her out of serious consideration.

(You can look again, RogK).  While I expected better overall results from Carthage this season, there's no doubt that NPU's win in Kenosha is another impressive one.  The downtown Lady Vikes have already played @WC, @ IWU, @ Carthage with remaining road games @ NCC @Augie @MU.  IWU still has road games @ Wheaton, @Carthage and @NPU.  Wheaton still has @Augie, @Carthage, @ NPU.  I don't think there's any question the schedule favors the Park and being up a game in the standings - a neutral observer would say it's theirs to lose.

[Gregory Sager]

Hide your eyes RogK.

At the midway point, I think it's Kendall Sosa and Jayla Johnson as neck and neck front runners for MOP with Hannah Frazier just a sliver below.  It will probably be a little dependent on how their team fares the rest of the way.  I really think Alexis Jones might actually be the most deserving of all those three but Augie's lack of team success will likely leave her out of serious consideration.

I agree. If we're talking about versatility, then Alexis Jones may be the best all-around player in the league. The only thing she can't do well on the court is shoot the trey. A week or two ago I would've put Autumn Kalis in this conversation as well, especially because, like Jones, she's a senior. But she's really gone cold; in Carthage's last three games against North Central, Millikin, and North Park she's only shot 13-47 (.277) from the field. I don't know if she's trying to do too much for a Lady Reds team that is struggling, or if the defense against her has been the difference, but she's fading along with her team.

I'd like to find out which Viking had the primary responsibility of guarding her last night; Kalis was 4-14 in terms of field goals. We were speculating about it at the scorer's table last night (since I only saw the last minute of the game at Tarble, and it was mostly scramble ball). My guess is Sinead Molloy, although Jacki Rapp is a possibility as well.

(You can look again, RogK).  While I expected better overall results from Carthage this season, there's no doubt that NPU's win in Kenosha is another impressive one.  The downtown Lady Vikes have already played @WC, @ IWU, @ Carthage with remaining road games @ NCC @Augie @MU.  IWU still has road games @ Wheaton, @Carthage and @NPU.  Wheaton still has @Augie, @Carthage, @ NPU.  I don't think there's any question the schedule favors the Park and being up a game in the standings - a neutral observer would say it's theirs to lose.

As a not-so-neutral observer, I'm not used to this kind of talk about the Vikings. I find that it makes me nervous.

[RogK]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYALKcapKN0
I was going to suggest that MOP discussion begin at 5:08pm central next week Thursday Jan 30.

[Gregory Sager]

[Ultimate Titan Fan]

I gotta hand it to Wheaton for playing a great game. It's headed for a repeat of previous years: Titans and Thunder in the CCIW tourney final.

[iwu70]

Agree with Ultimate . . . seems headed that way to me, too.  Though, it's clear that NPU is in the top tier now, this season, and could upend the normal WC-IWU end-of-season, CCIW tournament battle for the AQ.  MU also improved. 

WC played well vs. IWU, no doubt, but I think too in this one the Titans were not well-prepared, well-coached at the end, those last few possessions really showed some miscues, some poor execution or something.  They came up really short on several possessions in the last minute or so.  These close games, always come down to just a few key plays.   Likely two more chances for the Titans at WC and in the tournament. 

I'm still voting for Sosa, for MOP, as of now.  Tough tough D on her and she still gets 23, above her average. 

Agree with some of the earlier comments about Alexis Jones and Kalis.  Really thought Kalis was in the conversation too, earlier. 

IWU'70

[Gregory Sager]

I gotta hand it to Wheaton for playing a great game. It's headed for a repeat of previous years: Titans and Thunder in the CCIW tourney final.

Fine, doubt the Vikings all you like.

Not that I've ever been in their locker room, but I'm sure that their bulletin board has plenty of space.

[Gregory Sager]

WC played well vs. IWU, no doubt, but I think too in this one the Titans were not well-prepared, well-coached at the end, those last few possessions really showed some miscues, some poor execution or something.

I watched the WC @ IWU game on demand last night as prep for next Wednesday. What I saw was: a) bad ball protection by the Titans in the final minute that had nothing to do with Mia Smith -- a pass to a non-existent teammate that sailed out of bounds, and an aimless drive underneath the basket right into two defenders that led to a second straight turnover; and b) good ball movement and timely offensive opportunism by Wheaton, which won the game every bit as much as Illinois Wesleyan lost it.

In her postgame interview, Mia tore her players a new one. She didn't pull any punches. She really hit them hard for their mental lapses. So ... you blame Mia, Mia blames her players, and the rest of us will enjoy all of that trouble in paradise.

I'm still voting for Sosa, for MOP, as of now.  Tough tough D on her and she still gets 23, above her average.

I'm going to have to fire off an angry e-mail to the new CCIW commish about her apparent decision to allow you to vote for the women's basketball MOP.

[GoPerry]

I gotta hand it to Wheaton for playing a great game. It's headed for a repeat of previous years: Titans and Thunder in the CCIW tourney final.

WC played well vs. IWU, no doubt, but I think too in this one the Titans were not well-prepared, well-coached at the end, those last few possessions really showed some miscues, some poor execution or something.

b) good ball movement and timely offensive opportunism by Wheaton, which won the game every bit as much as Illinois Wesleyan lost it.

In her postgame interview, Mia tore her players a new one. She didn't pull any punches. She really hit them hard for their mental lapses. So ... you blame Mia, Mia blames her players, and the rest of us will enjoy all of that trouble in paradise.

Yeah, I saw the Smith interview also.  And sorry, but you guys have it all wrong.  IWU just played bad and weren't smart.  The loss had nothing to do with the Titan opponent playing good defense, making key baskets, breaking the press, taking care of the ball etc . . .

[iwu70]

I said very clearly that "WC played well."   

Didn't see the Coach Mia interview.  She's usually pretty frank and blunt with players.  I agree on the mistakes on those last few possessions . . . and that's what I said in my first post after the game, if you check back.  The Titans didn't get the best looks or opportunities, had poor execution the last 3-4 times down the floor, in crunch time, when the game was on the line. 

Likely two more opportunities vs. WC to get it right, to get it better.   I have faith.

Greg, I think if the CCIW Commish gets a MOP ballot from Hong Kong, she might have a question or two!     LOL  Just hope the other "voters" take my advice and give their support to Sosa.  Of course, more basketball to be played so the race for MOP still has a number of very viable and possible candidates.  (Same on the men's side, too, right?). 

IWU'70

[Gregory Sager]

Didn't see the Coach Mia interview.  She's usually pretty frank and blunt with players.  I agree on the mistakes on those last few possessions . . . and that's what I said in my first post after the game, if you check back.  The Titans didn't get the best looks or opportunities, had poor execution the last 3-4 times down the floor, in crunch time, when the game was on the line.

I simply pointed out that you threw Mia Smith under the bus:

I think too in this one the Titans were not well-prepared, well-coached at the end,

... which, IMO, she didn't deserve. I didn't see anything wrong with her X's and O's or her substitutions. Her players were the ones who made the mistakes on the floor.

Enough. I'm done talking about a team that isn't even playing this weekend.

This is where Massey currently has the CCIW's teams:

team	MR	SoS
Illinois Wesleyan	25	7
North Park	28	58
Wheaton	46	51
Augustana	92	15
Millikin	97	85
Carthage	104	50
North Central	124	55
Carroll	132	26
Elmhurst	152	59

And this is what Ken's computer forecasts for tomorrow, with the home team in bold:

Augustana 71, Carroll 69 (AC 52%, CU 48%)
Wheaton 61, Carthage 59 (WC 54%, CC 46%)
North Park 69, Elmhurst 55 (NPU 88%, EC 12%)
Millikin 66, North Central 62 (MU 61%, NCC 39%)

Massey anticipates three very close games tomorrow, with the road teams eking out victories in each of them, plus a relatively easy win for NPU in the crackerbox. That troubles me a bit, as I think that Elmhurst is a more dangerous team now with a healthy Kelly Weyhrich than it had been earlier in the year without her. Yes, the 'jays looked dreadful against Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan, but in their last game they led wire-to-wire in the Griz against Millikin and won by double digits. NPU is still an obvious favorite, but I'm not taking that 14-point margin to the bank.

[GoPerry]

Massey anticipates three very close games tomorrow, with the road teams eking out victories in each of them, plus a relatively easy win for NPU in the crackerbox. That troubles me a bit, as I think that Elmhurst is a more dangerous team now with a healthy Kelly Weyhrich than it had been earlier in the year without her. Yes, the 'jays looked dreadful against Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan, but in their last game they led wire-to-wire in the Griz against Millikin and won by double digits. NPU is still an obvious favorite, but I'm not taking that 14-point margin to the bank.

Yes.  ECs Kween Jean also brings a solid inside presence against the likes of Jayla Johnson, Hannah Frazier, etc.  I don't think you game plan for her, but she's someone who is capable of doing some scoring, rebounding, causing fouls etc.  She definitely warrants attention defensively if not just for her 6'3" size.

[Gregory Sager]

Definitely agree with you on that, GP. I think that Kween Jean is one of the most improved players in the league this season.