Pool C -- 2011

Ralph Turner · November 02, 2011, 05:52:49 PM

Quote from: smedindy on November 02, 2011, 04:44:48 PM
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2011/11/02/first-ncaa-regional-rankings/

Well, now...

My biggest shocker is CWRU breaking up the CCIW trio, and at #5 in the North are poised to take a "C" if they go unscathed through the UAA season (and Wesley doesn't lose to Huntingdon).

How far down do either Salisbury or SJF fall after this weekend when one will take loss #2? Will they fall far enough not to be on the board?

Whoever loses between Trinity and Centre could be in trouble for a "C". They weren't as highly ranked as I thought they would be.

Redlands isn't in good shape either with that ranking, I feel.

Smed, thanks for the post.

Right now, I see Redlands as the #2 Pool C team in the West. Would you (or anyone else) have ranked them higher than St Olaf?

smedindy · November 02, 2011, 06:09:42 PM

Yes, I would have. They beat NC and have a better SOS.

Being the second "C" in a region isn't a very good position to be in, because then you are relying on others getting selected in your region and then how you stack up against the rest of the crew.

Ralph Turner · November 02, 2011, 07:09:23 PM

I posted my thoughts on the blog.

I think the East gets shut-out.

K-Mack · November 02, 2011, 08:21:31 PM

Quote from: Mugsy on October 29, 2011, 04:44:28 PM
Almost had a major shift in Pool C consideration. IWU barely defeats Millikin 28-25. Millikin had the ball in the IWU redzone with just over 2 minutes left, but opted to go for it on 4th and 3 instead of kicking a tying FG.

Ouch

K-Mack · November 02, 2011, 08:22:41 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 02, 2011, 07:09:23 PM
I posted my thoughts on the blog.

I think the East gets shut-out.

It's highly likely there will be an item in ATN of great interest to this topic tomorrow. I wonder if I should read yours first or stay independent ... hmmm.

(reads)

Mr. Ypsi · November 02, 2011, 08:34:08 PM

Quote from: K-Mack on November 02, 2011, 08:21:31 PM
Quote from: Mugsy on October 29, 2011, 04:44:28 PM
Almost had a major shift in Pool C consideration. IWU barely defeats Millikin 28-25. Millikin had the ball in the IWU redzone with just over 2 minutes left, but opted to go for it on 4th and 3 instead of kicking a tying FG.

Ouch

IWU/Millikin results are ALWAYS dicey. In 2009, we beat both NCC and Wheaton, finishing the season 10-2 with a playoff loss at UWW. The other loss? To a so-so Millikin team in our homecoming game, no less! When I was a Titan (40+ years ago

), the Big Blue were the devil incarnate. My sense is that the rivalry no longer is that strong in B'town, but as strong as ever in Decatur - that can be a recipe for disaster.

K-Mack · November 02, 2011, 08:44:04 PM

Quote from: smedindy on November 02, 2011, 06:09:42 PM
Yes, I would have. They beat NC and have a better SOS.

Being the second "C" in a region isn't a very good position to be in, because then you are relying on others getting selected in your region and then how you stack up against the rest of the crew.

I also would have Redlands ahead of St. Olaf and would make the same exact point. Redlands, as it stands, can't get in until Olaf gets in. Luckily the committee seems to love Olaf.

There are definitely some things that could shake the field up: Delaware Valley losing to one but not both of Lyco and Widener.

We need the LC/McMurry, Centre/Trinity, Wheaton/NCC results, etc. The good news is we get them all this week, not after Week 11's games.

(I see Ralph's analysis makes a lot of assumptions)

smedindy · November 02, 2011, 08:55:38 PM

Witt / Wabash would clear things up (or muddy it up). I have a feeling that most every "C" contender is a Little Giants fan this week (as it should be!

)

Ralph Turner · November 02, 2011, 08:57:31 PM

Thanks for the comments, KMack.

Sorry for the "imprecision" and the errors on the projections on won-loss records for overall and in-region. I did not have the time to complete those fully. However, I tried to show the correct number of "in-region" losses at the end of the season for all the 40 teams, especially the Pool B/Pool C teams.

In any case, I make one general assumption for all of those projections.

The higher ranked team in the regional rankings, whether at home or away, wins every game.

Ralph Turner · November 02, 2011, 08:59:51 PM

Smed, do we need a Pool C yell practice for Wabash?

"Wabash Always Fights!"

There. How was that?

Mr. Ypsi · November 02, 2011, 09:19:16 PM

While I will be rooting for Wabash, in fairness to those who cannot, you could always root for Witt AND an upset (if there is such a thing) in the Monon Bell game!

Then the 'caveboyzz' (as DPU supporters would have it) would be watching from home.

smedindy · November 02, 2011, 09:26:44 PM

I'm going to pretend you didn't say that Ypsi...

In fact, I'm going to escort you to Ralph's cheer practice! Don't be late...

FCGrizzliesGrad · November 02, 2011, 09:50:21 PM

Maybe it's just me being pessimistic and too hard on them... but I was surprised to see Franklin at #2 in the North. If they win out are they really in line to be a high seed?

smedindy · November 02, 2011, 09:59:21 PM

If Wabash wins out, then their SOS would improve and I think they'd nudge ahead of Franklin.

But they're in line to host (if they submitted of course...)

Mr. Ypsi · November 02, 2011, 10:01:36 PM

Quote from: smedindy on November 02, 2011, 09:26:44 PM
I'm going to pretend you didn't say that Ypsi...

In fact, I'm going to escort you to Ralph's cheer practice! Don't be late...

Now smeds, don't overlook my opening phrase! Just trying to be helpful to those Pool C fans who would find it impossible to root for the LGs.

FFGG, I, too, was surprised to see them THAT high. But don't forget that UWW was a free pass. (At least for the regional committee; we'll see about the national committee - or at least we can guess about the national committee!)