Pool C -- 2011

[smedindy]

Barring any serious upsets in the remaining CCIW play, it is quite possible for a 3 way tie for the CCIW crown.

I'll take 'things that have been posted on this board every year' for $200, Alex.

I would say that it's almost McCarver-esque, but at least Mugsy was accurate and on-point!

[Mugsy]

Barring any serious upsets in the remaining CCIW play, it is quite possible for a 3 way tie for the CCIW crown.

I'll take 'things that have been posted on this board every year' for $200, Alex.

The main point I was trying to make was that while not likely, it is possible that there will be a 9-1 CCIW team may not make the playoffs.  It is not outrageous to think that Wheaton could beat NCC, but not likely. 

Sorry if I was stating the obvious about the CCIW, but there haven't been that many 3 way ties in the conference history.  I'll go back to the CCIW board and leave the discussion to the experts.

[Frank Rossi]

Barring any serious upsets in the remaining CCIW play, it is quite possible for a 3 way tie for the CCIW crown.

I'll take 'things that have been posted on this board every year' for $200, Alex.

The main point I was trying to make was that while not likely, it is possible that there will be a 9-1 CCIW team may not make the playoffs.  It is not outrageous to think that Wheaton could beat NCC, but not likely. 

Sorry if I was stating the obvious about the CCIW, but there haven't been that many 3 way ties in the conference history.  I'll go back to the CCIW board and leave the discussion to the experts.

I like the CCIW's tiebreaker for these scenarios:

1. Head-to-head competition
2. Best record by tied teams against the next best team or the next best tied teams in conference standings
3. Point differential between tied teams in conference
4. The fewest defensive yards given up versus tied teams in conference
5. Random drawing by CCIW commissioner.

At least it's based on the on-field performance in some relevant way.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Man we have an awesome community on the board. Nice work on this and subsequent posts.

This needs an update after Saturday, no? Bethel, LV, Montclair, etc. picked up losses.

I made another post about 22 hours ago that had this past weekend's games factored in

[K-Mack]

Yes, I see now.

Must stop posting before I'm caught up.

I've updated my list from the other day. I believe (and I could be wrong) these are all the teams that could finish with 1 loss but not win their conference. This doesn't include teams that can only finish with 1 loss by winning their conference (such as North Central in the CCIW) or 2 loss teams worthy of Pool C discussion (such as UW-Oshkosh)

Conf        Team                            Record          Conf Deciding Games
ASC:  Louisiana College   6-1 (4-1) (none)
CC:   Johns Hopkins       7-0 (6-0) (vs Ursinus)
CCIW: Illinois Wesleyan   6-1 (3-1) (none)
      Wheaton             6-1 (3-1) (@ North Central)
E8:   Salisbury           7-0 (5-0) (vs St John Fisher)
LL:   Hobart              5-0 (3-0) (vs RPI)
MAC:* Delaware Valley     8-0 (6-0) (@ Lycoming, vs Widener)
      Widener             7-1 (5-1) (@ Del Val)
      Lycoming            6-1 (4-1) (vs Del Val)
MIAA: Adrian              7-0 (3-0) (vs Albion)
MIAC: St Olaf             6-1 (4-1) (none)
MWC:  Illinois College    7-1 (6-1) (none)
NCAC: Wabash              7-0 (4-0) (vs Wittenberg)
NEFC: Endicott            8-0 (6-0) (@ Western New England, NEFC Championship)
NWC:  Linfield            6-0 (4-0) (vs Lewis & Clark)
      Lewis & Clark       6-0 (3-0) (@ Pacific Lutheran, vs Willamette, @ Linfield)
OAC:  Mount Union         7-0 (6-0) (vs Baldwin-Wallace)
PAC:  Thomas More         7-0 (6-0) (@ Westminster, vs Waynesburg)
SCAC: Trinity (TX)        7-0 (3-0) (vs Birmingham Southern, vs Centre)
      Centre              6-0 (3-0) (@ Millsaps, @Trinity)
      Birmingham Southern 5-1 (2-1) (@ Trinity, vs Millsaps)
SCIAC Redlands            5-1 (3-1) (none)

Pool B
      Wesley              6-1
      Case Western Reserve 6-1

ECFC: None
HCAC: None
IIAC: None
NAthC None
NJAC: None
ODAC: None
UMAC: None
USAC: None
WIAC: None

[Ralph Turner]

The "Pool C'ers" wish list.  Our motto is "None for all and all for none", (but keeping your fingers crossed for your own team.)

I've updated my list from the other day. I believe (and I could be wrong) these are all the teams that could finish with 1 loss but not win their conference. This doesn't include teams that can only finish with 1 loss by winning their conference (such as North Central in the CCIW) or 2 loss teams worthy of Pool C discussion (such as UW-Oshkosh)

Conf        Team                            Record          Conf Deciding Games
ASC:  Louisiana College   6-1 (4-1) (none)  Lose to McMurry on Nov 5
CC:   Johns Hopkins       7-0 (6-0) (vs Ursinus)  Run the table
CCIW**: Illinois Wesleyan   6-1 (3-1) (none)
      Wheaton             6-1 (3-1) (Lose @ North Central)
E8:   Salisbury           7-0 (5-0) (Defeat  St John Fisher and run the table including Wesley)
LL:   Hobart              5-0 (3-0) (Beat RPI)
MAC:* Delaware Valley     8-0 (6-0) (Run the table @ Lycoming, vs Widener)
      Widener             7-1 (5-1) (Lose @ Del Val)
      Lycoming            6-1 (4-1) (Lose vs Del Val)
MIAA: Adrian              7-0 (3-0) (Win vs Albion)
MIAC: St Olaf             6-1 (4-1) (Run the table. none)
MWC:  Illinois College    7-1 (6-1) (none)
NCAC: Wabash              7-0 (4-0) (Run the table and win Wittenberg; Okay to lose versus DePauw)
NEFC: Endicott            8-0 (6-0) (Win @ Western New England, NEFC Championship)
NWC:  Linfield            6-0 (4-0) (Win vs Lewis & Clark)
      Lewis & Clark       6-0 (3-0) (Lose at least 2 of 3; @ Pacific Lutheran, vs Willamette, @ Linfield)
OAC:  Mount Union         7-0 (6-0) (Run the table and win vs Baldwin-Wallace)
PAC:  Thomas More         7-0 (6-0) (Run the table  and win @ Westminster, vs Waynesburg)
SCAC**: Trinity (TX)        7-0 (3-0) (Run the table vs Birmingham Southern, vs Centre)
      Centre              6-0 (3-0) (@ Millsaps, Lose @Trinity)
      Birmingham Southern 5-1 (2-1) (Lose @ Trinity, vs Millsaps)
SCIAC Redlands            5-1 (3-1) (none)

Pool B
      Wesley              6-1  Lose at Salisbury
      Case Western Reserve 6-1

Pool C leftovers
ECFC: None
HCAC: None
IIAC: None
NAthC None
NJAC: None
ODAC: None
UMAC: None
USAC: None
WIAC: None

**The CCIW and  the SCAC have a great chance to get one Pool C bid.

St Olaf and Redlands look like they are in great shape, too.

Iliinois College has too weak of a schedule.

It looks like there may be 1-2 bids that are up for grabs beyond the "first cut".  I think that 4 Pool C bids are "no-brainers".  The rest get very hard.  The committee will have its job cut out for itself.

[Ralph Turner]

Two more names on the list of contenders...

I think that McMurry and UW-Oshkosh will be on the table, especially if they appear in either of the Regional Rankings.

[ExTartanPlayer]

3. Point differential between tied teams in conference

The ASC used to have this as a tiebreaker criteria, but I believe that they abandonded it after the following 2003 debacle.  All three teams finished 8-1 in ASC play, with the score triangle described here.

Hardin-Simmons 20, East Texas Baptist 14 (OT)
Mary Hardin-Baylor 43, Hardin-Simmons 36
East Texas Baptist 28, Mary Hardin-Baylor 21

The tiebreaker: East Texas Baptist wins by virtue of the best point differential (as they "lost" by 6 and "won" by 7 for a net differential of +1 while UMHB was even-steven and HSU was -1).

Unfortunately, this only happened because HSU scored a touchdown after stopping ETBU in overtime, so they did not kick the PAT.  If Hardin-Simmons had kicked the PAT in overtime, the "point differential" would have been even all around.

[smedindy]

Two more names on the list of contenders...

I think that McMurry and UW-Oshkosh will be on the table, especially if they appear in either of the Regional Rankings.

I see no reason why they wouldn't. Well, logically they would be in the rankings. But I've seen some illogical regional rankings before...

[K-Mack]

I love when what we recorded on the podcast the night before agrees with what Ralph posts on Monday morning.

[Ralph Turner]

I love when what we recorded on the podcast the night before agrees with what Ralph posts on Monday morning.

Big smiles and deep belly laugh!

Hey, the podcast is 58 minutes long. I had to get ready for the day job! 

I attribute it to a convergence of minds around the great truths of D3football.com, just after midnight on Sunday.

FCGrizzliesGrad should get some credit for putting the list together! 

[K-Mack]

I love when what we recorded on the podcast the night before agrees with what Ralph posts on Monday morning.

Big smiles and deep belly laugh!

Hey, the podcast is 58 minutes long. I had to get ready for the day job! 

I attribute it to a convergence of minds around the great truths of D3football.com, just after midnight on Sunday.

FCGrizzliesGrad should get some credit for putting the list together! 

Yeah I don't mean it is any kind of we-said-it-first ... I think of you (and this board) as a good check and balance for anything I might have missed.

So when this lists the same most likely six Pool C teams as Pat and I just discussed, I feel better that we see what everyone else who is examining closely sees. That's all.

And yes, hat tip to FCGG.

[Ralph Turner]

I love when what we recorded on the podcast the night before agrees with what Ralph posts on Monday morning.

Big smiles and deep belly laugh!

Hey, the podcast is 58 minutes long. I had to get ready for the day job! 

I attribute it to a convergence of minds around the great truths of D3football.com, just after midnight on Sunday.

FCGrizzliesGrad should get some credit for putting the list together! 

Yeah I don't mean it is any kind of we-said-it-first ... I think of you (and this board) as a good check and balance for anything I might have missed.

So when this lists the same most likely six Pool C teams as Pat and I just discussed, I feel better that we see what everyone else who is examining closely sees. That's all.

And yes, hat tip to FCGG.

More big smiles!

We have 3 great weeks of ball coming up. 

I wonder if a

Linfield, Cal Lu, Redlands, UMHB, Trinity, McMurry bracket plus two or

Linfield, Cal Lu, Redlands, UMHB, Trinity, a fly-in, and LaCollege hosting Huntingdon bracket

might be drawn.

And find 8 worthy teams in the East (maybe a Salisbury and JHU moved into the east) and keep UMU home this season.

[K-Mack]

Those are interesting propositions. The throw-all-the-flights-in-one-bracket-and-let-them-eliminate-each-other idea has been bandied about before.

One thing we learned in the past year or two is that distance of flight also matters. So they might not want a Huntingdon or LC in a bracket with Linfield and the SCIAC. Might be better to keep them true West ... who knows?

Another interesting thought ... who gets the home game if two SCIACs make it. Cal Lu would be the conference winner, but has already played at Linfield this season, and would have the same overall record and perhaps a lower SoS (I haven't looked) than Redlands. Runners up have played at home before while conference champs have gone on the road (last year, Montclair State at H-SC, W&L at Thomas More for example.

Lots of ideas to kick around these next few weeks.

[Ralph Turner]

2011 Handbook

DePauw has been moved to the North Region, but Salisbury is nowhere to be found...

The Seagulls are not listed with the Empire 8 and are not among the South Region independents.