FB: Southern Athletic Association

tigerguy · November 02, 2024, 04:12:08 PM

Bleh. Trinity's offense took a step back this week, despite score differential. 10 penalties is also unacceptable.

Ron Boerger · November 02, 2024, 06:44:14 PM

Yep. Penalties cost them two TDs including an incredible catch by Alex Tavares in the back of the end zone. Four FGs mean the "can't finish" bug from earlier in the season has returned (but kudos to Huettel who made a 49-yarder).

Ron Boerger · November 03, 2024, 11:17:13 AM

The latest D3Datacast NPI estimates are out. As expected Trinity is third of the three SAA teams and is currently below the line for the playoffs (both Berry and Centre are above the line). They just need to keep winning and hope for some help.

TLU also finds themselves below the line as of this update.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/football/

Ron Boerger · November 06, 2024, 09:17:53 AM

Southwestern elevated acting HC Bill Kreisel to HC yesterday, and given the job he's done with a team that was in total disarray last year, I'd say it was well-warranted.

Ron Boerger · November 08, 2024, 10:24:07 AM

And on that note, I think Saturday's game between Southwestern and Trinity could be very interesting. Last year was a 57-7 blowout by Trinity in Georgetown that may not have been even that close as 62 Tiger players (including four QBs) saw playing time in the rout. Coach Kreisel has his charges playing at a much higher level this season and two weeks ago only lost to Centre by ten, playing the Colonels even until yielding those ten in the fourth quarter. They're not terribly consistent - a 37-point loss to Berry and losses to Hendrix and Millsaps also mar the schedule - but when they're on their game (big wins against Sewanee, Rhodes, UPS and a tight win against McMurry in the opener) they can certainly be competitive, and there is a natural rivalry between SW and TU. Trinity can't afford to take them lightly. Southwestern, not Berry, has the leading rushing attack in the conference, and they've allowed the fewest yards rushing as well. Leroy Rodriguez' total of 693 yards on the ground (5.0 ypc) trails only Brandon Cade (892) among SAA rushers. Defensively, DJ James leads the conference in passes defended, with 13 breakups and two interceptions.

tigerguy · November 09, 2024, 12:24:51 PM

Although they took a step back last week offensively, Trinity is no doubt playing better than they were at the beginning of the season. Under the old playoff selection rules, I don't think this team is anywhere close to deserving a playoff spot. I don't believe their secondary will be able to stop any legitimate playoff team offsenses, and their own offense just isn't good enough to keep up on the other end. The run game has been frustratingly inconsistent at times.

If they make the playoffs - great. NPI aside, I do believe they are probably on the cusp of a playoff team under a top-40 format, although I would easily place the two WIAC teams above Trinity if it came down to it. So far, Trinity has performed about as well as I expected considering all of the experience they graduated at core positions. Hopeful they finish strong and the o-line shows up today against a very good Southwestern front.

Ron Boerger · November 09, 2024, 05:22:50 PM

Very solid effort from Trinity today - almost totally shut down the SW passing attack, kept their running under control, and three blocked punts along with a couple fumble recoveries and two interceptions. Returning a lot of these folks next year, too.

tigerguy · November 10, 2024, 10:45:10 AM

Trinity now within top 40 in D3datacast's projections, which have closesly matched the NCAA official NPI releases. Centre at #33 and Berry at #28. TLU at #34 and UMHB at #37; so, other than Hardin Simmons, the SAA/ASC/SCAC teams are all very tightly bunched.

Ron Boerger · November 10, 2024, 11:30:01 AM

Trinity would get some help, NPI-wise, from a win next week; UMHB (one team above them) will be hurt because they will have to count a W against sorry HPU which will end up hurting their NPI (updated).

Ron Boerger · November 11, 2024, 10:16:47 AM

Today's D3football.com podcast posits the 12 teams likely to get an at-large bid, and according to them, if chalk happens, Trinity gets a bid along with Centre. So would TLU, in which case a first-round TLU-Trinity rematch is likely at TLU. Go chalk!!

Ron Boerger · November 15, 2024, 10:15:47 AM

Logan Hansen's latest estimate of Trinity's chances to get a Pool C bid: 88.2%

He also posits a 12.9% chance UMHB gets a bid. Who knows who would host and who would travel in that scenario - if UMHB, TLU, and Trinity all get in, someone will have to get on a plane as HSU will have a first-round bye.

tigerguy · November 16, 2024, 10:32:06 AM

Logan Hansen says that as things stand, either Trinity/berry/Centre could still win the Pool A AQ. I didn't think that was possible based on how far ahead Berry's opponent win% was going into this week (I had Trinity's at 54.44%, Berry: 57.78%; Centre: 55.06%), but I'll obviously trust his math and records much more than my quick calculation.

Still overwhelmingly likely that Berry takes the Pool A, in which case, Hansen projects that for Trinity to get in, one or two of the following teams need to win:

Case Western to beat Carnegie Mellon (23% chance)
Westminster to beat Grove City (32%)
John Carroll to beat Marietta (55%)
Linfield to beat Whitworth (69%)
Dickinson to beat Ursinus (18%)
UW-River Falls to beat UW-Oshoksh (64%)
Bubble teams should root for:
Wabash to beat DePauw (9%)
UW-Platteville to beat UW-Stout (71%)
Southwestern to beat Texas Lutheran (21%)
Rhodes to beat Berry (3%)
Sewanee to beat Centre (4%)

Hansen projects the odds of at least two of these games breaking in Trinity's (and the other bubble team's) favor at approx 83%. So, lots of games to watch and pay attention to.

Ron Boerger · November 16, 2024, 11:18:09 AM

Any of the three teams can get the SAA bid if the other(s) lose. It's not likely, but it is possible.

Berry gets it if they win - unless Centre loses (they get the bid on the three-way OWP tiebreaker)
Centre gets it if they win and Berry loses (they have the H2H against Trinity).
Trinity gets it if they win and Centre loses (they have the H2H against Berry).

Ron Boerger · November 16, 2024, 11:21:20 AM

Also not sure that bubble teams want Wabash to beat Depauw, since that would take a pool C bid away (DPU is in with a loss, Wabash only if they win today).

tigerguy · November 16, 2024, 01:04:18 PM

Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 16, 2024, 11:18:09 AMAny of the three teams can get the SAA bid if the other(s) lose. It's not likely, but it is possible.

Berry gets it if they win - unless Centre loses (they get the bid on the three-way OWP tiebreaker)
Centre gets it if they win and Berry loses (they have the H2H against Trinity).
Trinity gets it if they win and Centre loses (they have the H2H against Berry).

Ah - makes a lot more sense that he was probably referring to a scenario where one or both other teams lost, as opposed to the tie-breaker opponents win %.