FB: Southern Athletic Association

[pbrooks3]

Go Colonels!  Get it done in Birmingham regardless.

[msbrownny]

We are assuming that the committee will use common sense and that is just not a safe bet. Just like assuming they knew the rules about the AQ prior to Oct. 31st was also a bad call. What is sad is that the young men of the Centre College football team that this will affect had nothing to do with the decision to leave an established conference, nor did they have anything to do with the lack of understanding the NCAA has for its own rules. So for them to be overlooked (if no when they go 10-0) because of politics and the committee's own negligence would be disheartening. So clearly I am invested in Centre football. #PEV #9-0

[jknezek]

Other than some Framingham St. and TLU people, most of the D3 universe probably agrees with you. Hopefully it will work itself out. But the most important thing is Centre needs to win this weekend. I wish I could get to the game, since it is in town, but we have two birthday parties and trip to get ready for. It's been that kind of fall. I only made 2 D3 games this year. Disappointing.

[msbrownny]

Yeah, seems like the RAC in the South has gone out of their way to move Centre behind the Mules this week, I guess to prove a point about TLU being the 2nd Pool B team?  I got nothing logical on this front.  I thought they were a lock for the 2nd Pool B slot at 10-0.
[/quote]

I was looking at this and was shocked. Not only is Centre behind TLU who lost at home by 56 points, but they are now behind the Mules, it seems like Centre is being punished for leaving an established conference. So we will wait and see what happens on Sunday and see if in the modern era Centre will be the first undefeated team to be snubbed. So Saturday is a must win in Birmingham and then the rest is in the committee's hands. When you've done all that you can do you just stand.

[jknezek]

I was looking at this and was shocked. Not only is Centre behind TLU who lost at home by 56 points, but they are now behind the Mules, it seems like Centre is being punished for leaving an established conference. So we will wait and see what happens on Sunday and see if in the modern era Centre will be the first undefeated team to be snubbed. So Saturday is a must win in Birmingham and then the rest is in the committee's hands. When you've done all that you can do you just stand.

Centre is being punished, quite honestly, because their schedule is full of really bad teams. The OOC schedule, the only thing the Colonels have control over, absolutely flopped. My W&L team has been flat out bad, Hanover was unexpectedly poor, and Wash U wasn't up to their usual standards. So all three games, which typically would feature teams at .500 or well above, simply don't. Then the SAA fell down. Only Rhodes looks remotely like a good team, and they lost to the only really good non-conf team they played, Chicago.

So Centre is being punished for things that were out of their control, unfortunately. I hope it works out for the Colonels, but they are a case study in what happens when your opponents are all terrible in the same year. No one knows if you are any good, regardless of how many wins you string together. Still, next year it won't matter, so I desperately hope common sense prevails.

[SaintsFAN]

I was looking at this and was shocked. Not only is Centre behind TLU who lost at home by 56 points, but they are now behind the Mules, it seems like Centre is being punished for leaving an established conference. So we will wait and see what happens on Sunday and see if in the modern era Centre will be the first undefeated team to be snubbed. So Saturday is a must win in Birmingham and then the rest is in the committee's hands. When you've done all that you can do you just stand.

Centre is being punished, quite honestly, because their schedule is full of really bad teams. The OOC schedule, the only thing the Colonels have control over, absolutely flopped. My W&L team has been flat out bad, Hanover was unexpectedly poor, and Wash U wasn't up to their usual standards. So all three games, which typically would feature teams at .500 or well above, simply don't. Then the SAA fell down. Only Rhodes looks remotely like a good team, and they lost to the only really good non-conf team they played, Chicago.

So Centre is being punished for things that were out of their control, unfortunately. I hope it works out for the Colonels, but they are a case study in what happens when your opponents are all terrible in the same year. No one knows if you are any good, regardless of how many wins you string together. Still, next year it won't matter, so I desperately hope common sense prevails.

I'm with jknezek here -- its the schedule and not the fact they left a certain conference.  Centre leaving the SCAC behind actually helped TLU in my opinoin, allowing them to move away from the ASC schedule that was killing the program. 

[Ron Boerger]

The question is should TLU's one good win (vs regionally ranked HSU) overcome the stinking pile they dropped at home vs UMHB.     If you look at the rest of their season, they have other wins of a TD or less against underwhelming foes (.500 ish Lousiana College and East Texas Baptist, 3-6 Trinity, the latter two at home) with most of their big margins coming early in the season against mediocre teams (winless Sul Ross, .500 ish Howard Payne, NAIA SAGU that lost to HPU and Austin among others).    When you look at the entire body of work, the HSU result looks more like an outlier and less indicative of the season as a whole.

My hope for Centre is that enough of the pool B/C candidates above them get upset so this won't be a problem, because assuming they win on Saturday, they've earned a playoff bid.   My real hope is that the committee figures out how to do their job between now and selection Sunday, but that may be too much to ask.

[D3AlumniParent]

Folks, I've made this point repeatedly in the Pool C thread (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8234.msg1626998#msg1626998), and I'll do so again: if you remove UMHB from TLU's SOS calculation, Centre's SOS will end up slightly HIGHER than TLU's. Their SOS is being propped up by the wins of a team that BEAT them.

Why should TLU get an advantage over an undefeated team because of a stat that doesn't reflect WHO THEY BEAT, when Centre's SOS is propped up by nobody because they NEVER LOST?  I thought "who you beat" is the generally prevailing thought as to what matters most.

My opinion is that Rhodes is better than Hardin-Simmons anyway. H-S's SOS might look good (ranked 48 to the 103 of Rhodes). But they only have six D3 games to go by so far. And here's the killer: if their game against Southwestern hadn't been cancelled (not sure why it was), their SOS would be SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER than Rhodes' SOS. They'd drop to the neighborhood of .481 -or 153rd place. It just goes to show you how fragile these numbers are.

Then, guess what? It should then be extremely difficult to justify a #10 RR ranking by the RC (which includes TLU's coach). Next likely candidates for #10 would be Emory & Henry or Rhodes. And say goodbye to TLU's RR win. (Seemed like quite a sham to have a win over a RR#10, vs an estimated #11-13, that pushed an undefeated team out of the picture).

They say figures lie and liars figure, right? Then just let common sense prevail. What does the eyeball test tell you (as C.M. Newton used to say when heading the March Madness basketball committee)? All these false numbers do is provide PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY of the "Texas politics" taking place on the South RC. Only a small regional committee, containing members who are DIRECTLY impacted by all the nuances of where each team is ranked, would have the chutzpah to create this situation.

It's been pointed out a few times in these forums by D3 moderators that this is the only time EVER where an undefeated team might slip to Pool C.  This may never happen again.

Allow me to put this in a very important and distinct light:

One of the primary comparison criteria, Strength of Schedule, HAS NEVER BEEN USED to compare a Pool C team that was undefeated with one that had losses. This sets a precedent that cannot be denied and SHOULD ALLOW either the RC or National Committee to then dissect the SOS calculation, while keeping true to it's spirit, but make it RELEVANT to this situation.

I only hope the NCAA National Committee demonstrates integrity in this process and right's the wrong of the Regional Committee. Said many times in these forums, this NCAA and it's  tournament stand for INCLUSIVENESS. I hope that proves to be true for the young men who have walked off the field victors each and every time this year.

Decades of tradition will have the Praying Colonels together Sunday evening for milk and cookies. They'd break up into groups, talk and watch films during the season. This time they'll stay together as a team and watch as the tournament brackets are unveiled. What a shame it would be, for in this room, to have the season's only defeat- one in which the young men had absolutely no power to influence. In my heart I do not believe the NCAA wants or will allow this to happen.

[wally_wabash]

Folks, I've made this point repeatedly in the Pool C thread (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8234.msg1626998#msg1626998), and I'll do so again: if you remove UMHB from TLU's SOS calculation, Centre's SOS will end up slightly HIGHER than TLU's. Their SOS is being propped up by the wins of a team that BEAT them.

You don't get to cherry pick which parts of the schedule count and which parts don't.  That's not how the game is played. 

Why should TLU get an advantage over an undefeated team because of a stat that doesn't reflect WHO THEY BEAT, when Centre's SOS is propped up by nobody because they NEVER LOST?  I thought "who you beat" is the generally prevailing thought as to what matters most.

I don't think TLU's advantage over Centre is the SOS only.  I think that's part of it, but the bigger part (IMO) is that they have an RRO win.  And that's the "who you beat" part of it for TLU. 

My opinion is that Rhodes is better than Hardin-Simmons anyway. H-S's SOS might look good (ranked 48 to the 103 of Rhodes). But they only have six D3 games to go by so far. And here's the killer: if their game against Southwestern hadn't been cancelled (not sure why it was), their SOS would be SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER than Rhodes' SOS. They'd drop to the neighborhood of .481 -or 153rd place. It just goes to show you how fragile these numbers are.

I'm interested in that math.  I'm not sure that's right....I don't think Southwestern alone can scrub over 0.06 points out of HSUs SOS.  You are right though in the abstract- that not playing Southwestern helps HSU's SOS.  It's not a good metric, no doubt. 

Then, guess what? It should then be extremely difficult to justify a #10 RR ranking by the RC (which includes TLU's coach). Next likely candidates for #10 would be Emory & Henry or Rhodes. And say goodbye to TLU's RR win. (Seemed like quite a sham to have a win over a RR#10, vs an estimated #11-13, that pushed an undefeated team out of the picture).

This is where I think there is an interesting conversation to be had.  Why HSU and not E&H or Rhodes?   I looked for common opponents and there aren't any, so that's not it.  I don't see a lot about Hardin-Simmons that makes them stand out from Rhodes or E&H aside from those SOS figures that are accepted without context.   The one thing I admittedly don't know anything about are the two non-division opponents that HSU played.  If those are quality teams, then HSU may have scored some points in the secondary criteria. 

They say figures lie and liars figure, right? Then just let common sense prevail. What does the eyeball test tell you (as C.M. Newton used to say when heading the March Madness basketball committee)? All these false numbers do is provide PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY of the "Texas politics" taking place on the South RC. Only a small regional committee, containing members who are DIRECTLY impacted by all the nuances of where each team is ranked, would have the chutzpah to create this situation.

And then this thing goes off the rails a bit.  Just a couple of more thoughts on this:
- Centre hasn't slipped to Pool C and Centre hasn't been left out of the tournament yet.  Centre also isn't 10-0 yet.  The way things got ordered this week maybe sets the table for some precedent-making things, but we should probably let the thing play out before going this kind of bonkers. 
- Juicy as the Great Texas Playoff Conspiracy is, I think you do the folks who work on these committees a pretty severe disservice by accusing them of stacking the deck.  It's one thing for us to look at those rankings and disagree or even say "hey, I think they got this wrong".  It's another to say they rigged it.  That kind of thing probably needs proof. 

Ultimately here, I agree with you.  Centre (and anybody else who runs the table) deserves to keep playing until they lose.  I think it would be a shame if they didn't get that chance. But I'm still hopeful, maybe even a little optimistic, that they will. 

[D3AlumniParent]

Ultimately here, I agree with you.  Centre (and anybody else who runs the table) deserves to keep playing until they lose.  I think it would be a shame if they didn't get that chance. But I'm still hopeful, maybe even a little optimistic, that they will.

Wally. Thanks very much for the response and for considering my thoughts. I went ahead and responded, but in the Pool C forum

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8234.630

[Tekken]

Centre is being punished, quite honestly, because their schedule is full of really bad teams. The OOC schedule, the only thing the Colonels have control over, absolutely flopped. My W&L team has been flat out bad, Hanover was unexpectedly poor, and Wash U wasn't up to their usual standards. So all three games, which typically would feature teams at .500 or well above, simply don't. Then the SAA fell down. Only Rhodes looks remotely like a good team, and they lost to the only really good non-conf team they played, Chicago.

So Centre is being punished for things that were out of their control, unfortunately. I hope it works out for the Colonels, but they are a case study in what happens when your opponents are all terrible in the same year. No one knows if you are any good, regardless of how many wins you string together. Still, next year it won't matter, so I desperately hope common sense prevails.

THIS.  And it doesn't matter why.  Perfect storms are called perfect storms for a reason.  Much can change with a weeks worth of football left, but Centre stands dead center in a perfect storm right now. 

[DFWCrufan]

HSU/Southwestern was called because to weather.. 3 Lighting delays and they called the game at around midnight

[D3AlumniParent]

Centre is being punished, quite honestly, because their schedule is full of really bad teams. The OOC schedule, the only thing the Colonels have control over, absolutely flopped. My W&L team has been flat out bad, Hanover was unexpectedly poor, and Wash U wasn't up to their usual standards. So all three games, which typically would feature teams at .500 or well above, simply don't. Then the SAA fell down. Only Rhodes looks remotely like a good team, and they lost to the only really good non-conf team they played, Chicago.

So Centre is being punished for things that were out of their control, unfortunately. I hope it works out for the Colonels, but they are a case study in what happens when your opponents are all terrible in the same year. No one knows if you are any good, regardless of how many wins you string together. Still, next year it won't matter, so I desperately hope common sense prevails.

THIS.  And it doesn't matter why.  Perfect storms are called perfect storms for a reason.  Much can change with a weeks worth of football left, but Centre stands dead center in a perfect storm right now.

Funny, timmy, how the lack of ANY significant wins by TLU has turned the tables on the "scheduling" debate. Despite a series of out-of-character bad seasons by Centre's opponents, Centre did what they had to do- win every time they played. And they WON BIG with an average margin of victory of 25.6 points.

http://goo.gl/KSeVrj

Let's hope the TLU head coach takes some of your advice, which you've been so gracious to condescendingly give over and over and over again: schedule better. As evidenced this year with TLU where UMHB propped up TLU's SOS tremendously.

[D3AlumniParent]

My real hope is that the committee figures out how to do their job between now and selection Sunday, but that may be too much to ask.

Amen

I think the Colonels made it all but impossible to let politics keep them home. 

[roocru]

My real hope is that the committee figures out how to do their job between now and selection Sunday, but that may be too much to ask.

Amen

I think the Colonels made it all but impossible to let politics keep them home. 

I think such a relatively new poster should stop disparaging the integrity of some of the coaches on this committee.  I know Coach Dawson of Austin College very well and have even spoken to him about what a difficult job this selection committee has.  I also know Coach Danny Padron very well as his son was a quarterback for the Cru while my son was playing.  I also know him through the Texas High School Coaches Association. I find it offensive that someone thinks these two men are "playing the system" to gain an advantage.  It is very easy to cast aspersions about someone you have no knowledge about.

Did you listen to the D3 Bracketology show tonight that was listed on the front page of the D3Football site.  If you had, you might have a better idea of how incredibly difficult this job is and what tiny changes can make significant differences in the choices made.  In 2003, my son played for the Cru and stayed home with a 9-1 record.  I did some spouting off and was told by other posters to study the criteria and some history to see why it happened.  I did and am much the better for it.

There are many of us SCAC fans that are still a little bitter about the teams that left the SCAC to form a conference fully knowing what that would do to both conferences, but even with that bitterness, I can look at the criteria and recognize that Centre is a special situation that I cannot remember coming around before and still hope they get in. 

Whatever happens tomorrow, remember that the National Committee will have to agree or reverse any situation for Centre to get in and that if they don't, it won't be because of "politics".