FB: Southern Athletic Association

[hasanova]

I think the only football playing schools within 500 miles of HC are:
USAC conference mates Brevard, Greensboro, LaGrange, and Maryville.
SAA non-Texas schools
ASW Belhaven and LC (ETBU comes in at 501)
ODAC E&H and Guilford

Good luck to the Hawks, Hawks88.  Huntingdon's had a fine season since opening day.

[Ralph Turner]

Huntingdon really is the problem, not Berry. Like I showed above, Berry has options. Huntingdon really doesn't.  RHIT and Franklin are about 550 miles. There just isn't an option in the Missouri area, Western TN, or Kentucky unless somehow Centre gets in (480 miles).

I have stricken the non-options for Berry.

When all is said and done, Berry actually has quite a few reasonable options. Using the NCAA TES system you get the following:

Berry --- 472 miles to W&L, 525 to Hampden Sydney, 611 to Randolph-Macon, 595 to Shenandoah.

I'm surprised W&L fits, but they do. Still, of these ODAC teams, W&L has to play all 3 contenders on the road in the coming weeks and already has a conference loss. I don't rate their odds of winning the ODAC all that high right now.

HSU over 900 miles, UMHB is 839 miles. The ASC is out.

Huntingdon is 209 miles. Averett is the only other 1 conference loss USASAC school and their loss is to Huntingdon, but they are 436 miles. Both schools are in.

BUT, and here is where it gets interesting, Rose-Hulman is 461 miles, Franklin is 463. So the HCAC is definitely in play. So the southernmost North schools are legit options.

Which leads us to Wittenberg is exactly 500 miles. Depauw is 495 miles, so the NCAC is in play.

Then you have to start going farther afield. Frostburg State is 636 miles, Wesley is 760, so the NJAC, the southernmost East region conference, is out.

Johns Hopkins out of the CC, the northern most South Conference, is 696, Ursinus is 808 miles.

CWRU, W&J and CMU are all out, so the PAC is out.
UMU is 672.


I may have missed a few, but I'm willing to bet I got most of the options. People underestimate how far you can go with 500 miles. So we tend to think there are fewer options than there really are available.

Respectfully, Berry may have only 1 more option when we know who the Pool A's are.

I would prefer putting Centre in the other side of the bracket from Berry with a Berry-friendly team so I might avoid a second round plane flight in to one corner of that bracket.

at Berry
Huntingdon
                                              Second round game
                                              Second round game
Centre
"Berry-travel-friendly"

If Huntingdon wins the first round, a plane flight is needed for Round 2.

[jknezek]

With respect Ralph, the odds of Centre and HSU getting in are.... minimal. Centre will have a very limited RRO record and not a great SOS. A 9-1 Centre, with OOC wins over Hanover and Anderson that have 3 wins between them so far, isn't going to fire anyone up. I really don't see anyone else in the SAA getting regionally ranked, so Centre is going to be 0-1 with a mediocre SOS. It's not much of a resume.

[Ralph Turner]

With respect Ralph, the odds of Centre and HSU getting in are.... minimal. Centre will have a very limited RRO record and not a great SOS. A 9-1 Centre, with OOC wins over Hanover and Anderson that have 3 wins between them so far, isn't going to fire anyone up. I really don't see anyone else in the SAA getting regionally ranked, so Centre is going to be 0-1 with a mediocre SOS. It's not much of a resume.

Thanks for the response. So I think that we are anticipating a first round match up with Berry and Huntingdon...

[jknezek]

With respect Ralph, the odds of Centre and HSU getting in are.... minimal. Centre will have a very limited RRO record and not a great SOS. A 9-1 Centre, with OOC wins over Hanover and Anderson that have 3 wins between them so far, isn't going to fire anyone up. I really don't see anyone else in the SAA getting regionally ranked, so Centre is going to be 0-1 with a mediocre SOS. It's not much of a resume.

Thanks for the response. So I think that we are anticipating a first round match up with Berry and Huntingdon...

It's getting increasingly hard to avoid. Plus it's a pretty pairing. Huntingdon will have an ugly loss, granted week 1, but Guilford is not helping their case. Berry will likely be undefeated. So it will look right for Berry to host Huntingdon in a 4-8 type match up. That leaves the two ASC and two West Coast conference winners paired again, most likely. Hopefully they will spring for the extra flight, sending Linfield to HSU (based on common opponent?) and maybe Chapman/SCIAC winner to UMHB. Avoids any first round rematches, even if some of those teams probably deserve better. Then pair the winners in round 2, where again, they probably deserve better but it is what it is. Meanwhile, winner of Berry/Huntingdon can go a Southern North match up or they just start flying them somewhere, kind of inevitable if Huntingdon wins.

The ODAC winner coming from most likely Shenandoah, H-SC, W&L or RMC can go a lot of places, so that's no big deal.

[albatross]

With respect Ralph, the odds of Centre and HSU getting in are.... minimal. Centre will have a very limited RRO record and not a great SOS. A 9-1 Centre, with OOC wins over Hanover and Anderson that have 3 wins between them so far, isn't going to fire anyone up. I really don't see anyone else in the SAA getting regionally ranked, so Centre is going to be 0-1 with a mediocre SOS. It's not much of a resume.

Thanks for the response. So I think that we are anticipating a first round match up with Berry and Huntingdon...

It's getting increasingly hard to avoid. Plus it's a pretty pairing. Huntingdon will have an ugly loss, granted week 1, but Guilford is not helping their case. Berry will likely be undefeated. So it will look right for Berry to host Huntingdon in a 4-8 type match up. That leaves the two ASC and two West Coast conference winners paired again, most likely. Hopefully they will spring for the extra flight, sending Linfield to HSU (based on common opponent?) and maybe Chapman/SCIAC winner to UMHB. Avoids any first round rematches, even if some of those teams probably deserve better. Then pair the winners in round 2, where again, they probably deserve better but it is what it is. Meanwhile, winner of Berry/Huntingdon can go a Southern North match up or they just start flying them somewhere, kind of inevitable if Huntingdon wins.

The ODAC winner coming from most likely Shenandoah, H-SC, W&L or RMC can go a lot of places, so that's no big deal.

well said. Huntingdon is the team that could lock it all up, pretty much. I hope they spring for the extra flight regarding SCIAC/West Coast and ASC. That would make things a lot more entertaining...

[paparcc]

With respect Ralph, the odds of Centre and HSU getting in are.... minimal. Centre will have a very limited RRO record and not a great SOS. A 9-1 Centre, with OOC wins over Hanover and Anderson that have 3 wins between them so far, isn't going to fire anyone up. I really don't see anyone else in the SAA getting regionally ranked, so Centre is going to be 0-1 with a mediocre SOS. It's not much of a resume.

Thanks for the response. So I think that we are anticipating a first round match up with Berry and Huntingdon...

It's getting increasingly hard to avoid. Plus it's a pretty pairing. Huntingdon will have an ugly loss, granted week 1, but Guilford is not helping their case. Berry will likely be undefeated. So it will look right for Berry to host Huntingdon in a 4-8 type match up. That leaves the two ASC and two West Coast conference winners paired again, most likely. Hopefully they will spring for the extra flight, sending Linfield to HSU (based on common opponent?) and maybe Chapman/SCIAC winner to UMHB. Avoids any first round rematches, even if some of those teams probably deserve better. Then pair the winners in round 2, where again, they probably deserve better but it is what it is. Meanwhile, winner of Berry/Huntingdon can go a Southern North match up or they just start flying them somewhere, kind of inevitable if Huntingdon wins.

The ODAC winner coming from most likely Shenandoah, H-SC, W&L or RMC can go a lot of places, so that's no big deal.

well said. Huntingdon is the team that could lock it all up, pretty much. I hope they spring for the extra flight regarding SCIAC/West Coast and ASC. That would make things a lot more entertaining...

I'm new to this playoff stuff so it's interesting and educational to read the thoughts of knowledgeable people.

However, me thinks we Berry fans, and especially coaches and players, need to just concern ourselves with Milsaps, Birmingham-Southern, and Trinity....one at a time.  The rest is totally beyond our control.   

[jknezek]

With respect Ralph, the odds of Centre and HSU getting in are.... minimal. Centre will have a very limited RRO record and not a great SOS. A 9-1 Centre, with OOC wins over Hanover and Anderson that have 3 wins between them so far, isn't going to fire anyone up. I really don't see anyone else in the SAA getting regionally ranked, so Centre is going to be 0-1 with a mediocre SOS. It's not much of a resume.

Thanks for the response. So I think that we are anticipating a first round match up with Berry and Huntingdon...

It's getting increasingly hard to avoid. Plus it's a pretty pairing. Huntingdon will have an ugly loss, granted week 1, but Guilford is not helping their case. Berry will likely be undefeated. So it will look right for Berry to host Huntingdon in a 4-8 type match up. That leaves the two ASC and two West Coast conference winners paired again, most likely. Hopefully they will spring for the extra flight, sending Linfield to HSU (based on common opponent?) and maybe Chapman/SCIAC winner to UMHB. Avoids any first round rematches, even if some of those teams probably deserve better. Then pair the winners in round 2, where again, they probably deserve better but it is what it is. Meanwhile, winner of Berry/Huntingdon can go a Southern North match up or they just start flying them somewhere, kind of inevitable if Huntingdon wins.

The ODAC winner coming from most likely Shenandoah, H-SC, W&L or RMC can go a lot of places, so that's no big deal.

well said. Huntingdon is the team that could lock it all up, pretty much. I hope they spring for the extra flight regarding SCIAC/West Coast and ASC. That would make things a lot more entertaining...

I'm new to this playoff stuff so it's interesting and educational to read the thoughts of knowledgeable people.

However, me thinks we Berry fans, and especially coaches and players, need to just concern ourselves with Milsaps, Birmingham-Southern, and Trinity....one at a time.  The rest is totally beyond our control.   

From a team and player point of view that is 100% correct. From a fan point of view, you will quickly learn that speculating, and being completely wrong, about obscure first round match ups is part of the joy of this board.

[Ralph Turner]

With respect Ralph, the odds of Centre and HSU getting in are.... minimal. Centre will have a very limited RRO record and not a great SOS. A 9-1 Centre, with OOC wins over Hanover and Anderson that have 3 wins between them so far, isn't going to fire anyone up. I really don't see anyone else in the SAA getting regionally ranked, so Centre is going to be 0-1 with a mediocre SOS. It's not much of a resume.

Thanks for the response. So I think that we are anticipating a first round match up with Berry and Huntingdon...

It's getting increasingly hard to avoid. Plus it's a pretty pairing. Huntingdon will have an ugly loss, granted week 1, but Guilford is not helping their case. Berry will likely be undefeated. So it will look right for Berry to host Huntingdon in a 4-8 type match up. That leaves the two ASC and two West Coast conference winners paired again, most likely. Hopefully they will spring for the extra flight, sending Linfield to HSU (based on common opponent?) and maybe Chapman/SCIAC winner to UMHB. Avoids any first round rematches, even if some of those teams probably deserve better. Then pair the winners in round 2, where again, they probably deserve better but it is what it is. Meanwhile, winner of Berry/Huntingdon can go a Southern North match up or they just start flying them somewhere, kind of inevitable if Huntingdon wins.

The ODAC winner coming from most likely Shenandoah, H-SC, W&L or RMC can go a lot of places, so that's no big deal.

+1!  I agree. IMHO, Chapman would be a #3 (or maybe a #4) in the East Regional and everyone else might be the #1 in the East Regional.

jknezek,

Can you give me your first guess at the South Regional Rankings (not your South Region Fan Poll ballot) as they will appear to the National Committee, 1-10?

Thanks.

[Ralph Turner]

I'm new to this playoff stuff so it's interesting and educational to read the thoughts of knowledgeable people.

However, me thinks we Berry fans, and especially coaches and players, need to just concern ourselves with Milsaps, Birmingham-Southern, and Trinity....one at a time.  The rest is totally beyond our control.   

Welcome to the Boards around Playoff Time.

This is when it gets fun!

This page of FAQ's will help you.

http://www.d3football.com/interactive/faq/playoffs

Be sure to do the Monday Morning podcasts and read the articles on the front page of the website.

After 2 or 3 seasons, you will get to where you can predict most of the picks and understand why the committee went with the teams that they did, whether you agree or not.

[jknezek]

With respect Ralph, the odds of Centre and HSU getting in are.... minimal. Centre will have a very limited RRO record and not a great SOS. A 9-1 Centre, with OOC wins over Hanover and Anderson that have 3 wins between them so far, isn't going to fire anyone up. I really don't see anyone else in the SAA getting regionally ranked, so Centre is going to be 0-1 with a mediocre SOS. It's not much of a resume.

Thanks for the response. So I think that we are anticipating a first round match up with Berry and Huntingdon...

It's getting increasingly hard to avoid. Plus it's a pretty pairing. Huntingdon will have an ugly loss, granted week 1, but Guilford is not helping their case. Berry will likely be undefeated. So it will look right for Berry to host Huntingdon in a 4-8 type match up. That leaves the two ASC and two West Coast conference winners paired again, most likely. Hopefully they will spring for the extra flight, sending Linfield to HSU (based on common opponent?) and maybe Chapman/SCIAC winner to UMHB. Avoids any first round rematches, even if some of those teams probably deserve better. Then pair the winners in round 2, where again, they probably deserve better but it is what it is. Meanwhile, winner of Berry/Huntingdon can go a Southern North match up or they just start flying them somewhere, kind of inevitable if Huntingdon wins.

The ODAC winner coming from most likely Shenandoah, H-SC, W&L or RMC can go a lot of places, so that's no big deal.

+1!  I agree. IMHO, Chapman would be a #3 (or maybe a #4) in the East Regional and everyone else might be the #1 in the East Regional.

jknezek,

Can you give me your first guess at the South Regional Rankings (not your South Region Fan Poll ballot) as they will appear to the National Committee, 1-10?

Thanks.

This is kind of a wag just going by what's available right now in terms of SOS and who I think might be ranked. Obviously the CC tangle unravels a bit depending on who gets ranked, and some of those teams still play. Same with CWRU and CMU and Westminster and CMU and W&J. Hard to ignore H-SC's SOS, I'm not sure CNU gets ranked in the East right now though and 2 losses is a tough pill to swallow at this point in the season.

That being said, CWRU gets credit for being undefeated, but not over HSU losing to UMHB. Same with W&J. Unless CMU gets ranked. If CMU sneaks in instead of Shenandoah, then I would bump W&J up over HSU being 1-0 RRO. If W&J is 0-0, I think HSU claims that third spot.  Centre's SOS is going to come down, but for now it looks good, and you are pairing that with a loss to my theoretical 2. That's not a bad resume. Not enough to get over an undefeated CWRU, but second best among the 1 loss teams. Ursinus over JHU right now on H2H. F&M not far behind. Hard to ignore F&M's SOS, but the loss to JHU slots them below the Blue Jays. You could push Ursinus behind JHU and F&M on SOS, but that ignores a big H2H. Luckily Ursinus and F&M still play. Shenandoah gets the 10 spot because Hobart could be ranked in the East and their SOS is significantly better than the other possibilities.

1) UMHB (2-0 RRO South and West, 5 SOS)
2) Berry (1-0 RRO, 60 SOS)
3) HSU (0-1 RRO, 47 SOS)
4) W&J (0-0 RRO, 197 SOS)
5) CWRU (0-0 RRO, 234 SOS)
6) Centre (0-1 RR, 55 SOS)
7) Ursinus (1-0 RRO, 194 SOS)
8) JHU (1-1 RRO, 30 SOS)
9) F&M (0-1 RRO, 17 SOS)
10) Shenandoah (0-1 RRO East, 104 SOS)

Other possibilities
CMU (0-1 RRO, 201 SOS)
Huntingdon (0-0 RRO, 142 SOS)
Westminster (0-1 RRO North, 206 SOS)

Long Shots
H-SC (0-2 RRO West and East, 8 SOS)

[jknezek]

By the way, the upshot of all of that is UMHB and HSU go through to the playoffs, CWRU would block Centre from seeing the table except maybe the last round. The CC teams would figure themselves out. Berry, W&J, and Shenandoah would all B A bids. I do think an undefeated CWRU gets in, giving the south 3 of the 6? B/C slots. That would be quite a haul, but there is no way Centre gets a 4th.

And with a lot of football to play, all this will be absolute garbage long before it matters.

[Ralph Turner]

By the way, the upshot of all of that is UMHB and HSU go through to the playoffs, CWRU would block Centre from seeing the table except maybe the last round. The CC teams would figure themselves out. Berry, W&J, and Shenandoah would all B A bids. I do think an undefeated CWRU gets in, giving the south 3 of the 6? B/C slots. That would be quite a haul, but there is no way Centre gets a 4th.

And with a lot of football to play, all this will be absolute garbage long before it matters.

No, not garbage!

I think that the South gets 3 at large of the 7 bids. HSU edges out undefeated Springfield for 2nd Pool B bid and undefeated Springfield gets a Pool C bid.

I like how you have described the process for the newbies on the boards.  +1!

[awadelewis]

So... Trinity beat Sewanee today by a score of 27-21.   Trinity had a 27-0 lead in the third quarter and let us put up three touchdowns on them over about a  6-7 minute period at the end of the third and start of the fourth.   This was after Trinity's defense was skull-dragging our kids up to that point.

And I think Sewanee would have made it even more difficult on Trinity except for the refs calling a rather dubious roughing the passer penalty and a darn silly (I said stronger words at the time) personal foul penalty by one of our defensive players.

Now that I've seen both Berry and Trinity,  advantage Berry when Trinity goes to Rome if the Vikings keep playing like they been doing so far this season.

[Ron Boerger]

Oh, I would agree, but if Trinity could just play a full game ... against BSC, Sewanee, to a lesser extent Millsaps, TU were lights out for three quarters and then the wheels fall off.   Against Rhodes, Centre, Chapman it was iffy first 2-3 quarters and huge play down the stretch.   Let's play 48, men!