FB: Southern Athletic Association

[jknezek]

Gained 44 spots on the SOS during our bye week? Wow. I guess it helped a lot to have Guilford and BSC both win this week. It will likely take a nose dive the next two weeks with Greensboro and Methodist coming up.

Yes. The SOS is a tricky and not consistently helpful calculation in my opinion. Luckily for Huntingdon, they should win out, and primary criteria is wins. Plus, there really isn't much Huntingdon can do to improve their situation. So long as Berry wins out, there aren't many places Huntingdon can go without a flight, and frankly going to an undefeated Berry is probably better than anywhere they would reasonably be flown. There is nothing left to Huntingdon's resume that is likely to earn them a home game. So Huntingdon is actually in an odd position of having almost no options. So long as they win the AQ, I give them a 90% chance of playing Berry, and an 85% chance of going to Berry. Berry would probably need to lose both remaining games and still have the AQ (Centre losing somewhere else), for Huntingdon to reasonably expect a home game at 9-1, and even then it would likely be against Berry.

[Ralph Turner]

Gained 44 spots on the SOS during our bye week? Wow. I guess it helped a lot to have Guilford and BSC both win this week. It will likely take a nose dive the next two weeks with Greensboro and Methodist coming up.

Yes. The SOS is a tricky and not consistently helpful calculation in my opinion. Luckily for Huntingdon, they should win out, and primary criteria is wins. Plus, there really isn't much Huntingdon can do to improve their situation. So long as Berry wins out, there aren't many places Huntingdon can go without a flight, and frankly going to an undefeated Berry is probably better than anywhere they would reasonably be flown. There is nothing left to Huntingdon's resume that is likely to earn them a home game. So Huntingdon is actually in an odd position of having almost no options. So long as they win the AQ, I give them a 90% chance of playing Berry, and an 85% chance of going to Berry. Berry would probably need to lose both remaining games and still have the AQ (Centre losing somewhere else), for Huntingdon to reasonably expect a home game at 9-1, and even then it would likely be against Berry.

A general question to the readers of this board...

How much is your "standard deviation" for the SOS, now that we are 8 weeks into the season?

25 places (~10%)?  50 places (~20%)? More?

[Hawks88]

Gained 44 spots on the SOS during our bye week? Wow. I guess it helped a lot to have Guilford and BSC both win this week. It will likely take a nose dive the next two weeks with Greensboro and Methodist coming up.

Yes. The SOS is a tricky and not consistently helpful calculation in my opinion. Luckily for Huntingdon, they should win out, and primary criteria is wins. Plus, there really isn't much Huntingdon can do to improve their situation. So long as Berry wins out, there aren't many places Huntingdon can go without a flight, and frankly going to an undefeated Berry is probably better than anywhere they would reasonably be flown. There is nothing left to Huntingdon's resume that is likely to earn them a home game. So Huntingdon is actually in an odd position of having almost no options. So long as they win the AQ, I give them a 90% chance of playing Berry, and an 85% chance of going to Berry. Berry would probably need to lose both remaining games and still have the AQ (Centre losing somewhere else), for Huntingdon to reasonably expect a home game at 9-1, and even then it would likely be against Berry.

Yeah, to get a home game we would need something like Hendrix beating Trinity, Trinity beating Berry, Berry losing to BSC, and Centre losing to either Millsaps, Sewanee or BSC and ending up with a three or four way tie with anyone but Trinity getting the AQ. If Trinity were to get the AQ then I have a feeling we are the 4th team in the Texas sub-bracket. Actually, if I read the SAA tie-breaker correctly then Berry would win the 4 way tie by way of them and Centre being 2-1 against the tied teams and Trinity and Hendrix both being 1-2 with Berry then having the head-to-head over Centre.

[jknezek]

A general question to the readers of this board...

How much is your "standard deviation" for the SOS, now that we are 8 weeks into the season?

25 places (~10%)?  50 places (~20%)? More?

I'm not even sure I'd look at it that way. If you are in the top 50, I'd say with 75% certainty you've had a challenging schedule. If you are in the 50-150 range, I'd say it is 75% certain you played an average type schedule. Once you get above 150, there's probably a 90% chance you've played a weaker than average schedule.

However, there is a reason for the variance. For example, right now Hope is listed at 10th for SOS and Lawrence at 13th, you flip it over and you get CMU at 216 and ETBU at 181. Any reasonable analysis of these schedules, knowing the quality of teams not just their records, will have you laughing at these numbers.

And then you just get the silly math. A 10 team conference can barely have a team with an SOS above or below .500 at the end of the season. So any time you look at an NCAC team like Denison at 8, you know it's just because they haven't played the weak part of their schedule yet. Southwestern at 4-3, barely above .500, can't keep their SOS up when the total of the 9 conference games has to be right around .500. So they will drop like a stone in coming weeks.

Meanwhile, Wash U, with no conference games this year, sits at 3. With Case and Bridgewater ahead, it's possible they could end up with the toughest schedule in the country, mathematically, but also in practice.

CMU is 7-1. Chicago is 4-3. UWW is 4-3. Wartburg is 7-0. NCC is 6-1. W&L is 5-2. Buena Vista is 3-4. Case is 7-0. Bridgewater is 4-3. Since they have almost no overlapping conference restraints, besides W&L and Bridgewater, all these teams can finish above .500. In reality, only UWW, BV and Bridgewater aren't in contention for their conference AQ. But more importantly is the math aspect. None of these teams have to lose because another one has won.

[albatross]

Yeah, to get a home game we would need something like Hendrix beating Trinity, Trinity beating Berry, Berry losing to BSC, and Centre losing to either Millsaps, Sewanee or BSC and ending up with a three or four way tie with anyone but Trinity getting the AQ. If Trinity were to get the AQ then I have a feeling we are the 4th team in the Texas sub-bracket. Actually, if I read the SAA tie-breaker correctly then Berry would win the 4 way tie by way of them and Centre being 2-1 against the tied teams and Trinity and Hendrix both being 1-2 with Berry then having the head-to-head over Centre.

I had to read this like 5 times, Hawks88!  If all of this happens I don't know what I will do with myself...

[Ron Boerger]

Gained 44 spots on the SOS during our bye week? Wow. I guess it helped a lot to have Guilford and BSC both win this week. It will likely take a nose dive the next two weeks with Greensboro and Methodist coming up.

Yes. The SOS is a tricky and not consistently helpful calculation in my opinion. Luckily for Huntingdon, they should win out, and primary criteria is wins. Plus, there really isn't much Huntingdon can do to improve their situation. So long as Berry wins out, there aren't many places Huntingdon can go without a flight, and frankly going to an undefeated Berry is probably better than anywhere they would reasonably be flown. There is nothing left to Huntingdon's resume that is likely to earn them a home game. So Huntingdon is actually in an odd position of having almost no options. So long as they win the AQ, I give them a 90% chance of playing Berry, and an 85% chance of going to Berry. Berry would probably need to lose both remaining games and still have the AQ (Centre losing somewhere else), for Huntingdon to reasonably expect a home game at 9-1, and even then it would likely be against Berry.

Yeah, to get a home game we would need something like Hendrix beating Trinity, Trinity beating Berry, Berry losing to BSC, and Centre losing to either Millsaps, Sewanee or BSC and ending up with a three or four way tie with anyone but Trinity getting the AQ. If Trinity were to get the AQ then I have a feeling we are the 4th team in the Texas sub-bracket. Actually, if I read the SAA tie-breaker correctly then Berry would win the 4 way tie by way of them and Centre being 2-1 against the tied teams and Trinity and Hendrix both being 1-2 with Berry then having the head-to-head over Centre.

Could you paste the SAA tiebreaker here?   I did a cursory look for it earlier but came up empty.

Here are the SAA PoTW:

Offense - PJ Settles - Junior QB - Rhodes
- 211 yards (career high), 2TD on 19 carries; 19-of-33 passing for 288 yards, 2TD.

Defense - John Cleveland - Senior DB - Sewanee
- Career-best 13 tackles, 10 solo; 2 INTs and a forced a fumble.

Special Teams - Jake Holloway - Freshman P - Centre
- 6 punts averaging 43.2 yards, 4 inside the 20.

[albatross]

Could you paste the SAA tiebreaker here?   I did a cursory look for it earlier but came up empty.

From the Football section of the SAA Operating Manual:

"In the case of two or more teams tying for the conference championship, each team will be declared a co-champion and receive a trophy. To determine the representative to NCAA postseason competition and the recipient of the conference's automatic bid, the following criteria will be used as a tie-breaker:

A. Two teams – head-to-head result from conference game played.

B. Three teams – Using the following point system:

• Each team will be awarded two points for each victory against other
  conference co-champions.

• Each team is awarded one point for each victory over other conference
  teams not sharing the championship.

• In the event that both parts of Section B are applied and two teams are
  still tied, the formula will revert back to Section A.

C. If Sections A and B cannot break the tie and there are still three teams tied, then the team or teams with the fewest losses will be declared as the recipient of the conference's automatic bid to the NCAAs. If two teams have the equal number of losses, Section A is applied.

D. If there are still three teams tied with the same number of losses, then the percentage of each team's opponents' total overall record will be used. The team whose opponents have the higher win/loss percentage will receive the conference's automatic bid to the NCAAs. If two teams remain throughout any of these tie-breaking procedures. Section A is applied."

[Ron Boerger]

So Berry is really in the driver's seat.   They beat Centre and are undefeated.   Even in the off chance Trinity wins out, they have two losses already so would be eliminated by (c); Centre would be eliminated by (b).   The only scenario where Berry doesn't get the bid is one in which they either lose both to BSC and Trinity (in which case Centre gets it if they win out) or one in which Centre loses one of its next three games against the conference bottom half and Trinity wins out.     Both are possible but neither is likely. 

[BerryCollegeFan]

Looks like it is going to be a rainy day Saturday for Berry in Birmingham.  Forecast call for rain Friday night and into the morning Saturday, could be moved on by game time.  It won't make a good tailgating scene for the fans.

Does anyone know how the BSC field responds to the rain?  I expect it to be slick.  It looks like it is a good spot to drain however...

[albatross]

Looks like it is going to be a rainy day Saturday for Berry in Birmingham.  Forecast call for rain Friday night and into the morning Saturday, could be moved on by game time.  It won't make a good tailgating scene for the fans.

Does anyone know how the BSC field responds to the rain?  I expect it to be slick.  It looks like it is a good spot to drain however...

If I remember correctly from playing there last year, irrigation is not a problem. Water can run off the embankment on the non-stadium/highway side, and the field has the standard, "slight" slope with drains. There are also places for the water to flow from the higher elevation, like the road going behind/adjacent to the stadium. It could also maybe collect on top of the named wall behind the endzone, but my memory might be failing me there.

JK will know better than all of us - in fact I probably stared up at his tailgating spot when I was warming up!

[jknezek]

Drainage won't be a problem. Field is turf and well designed to drain. I was over there for a rainy Wesley game a few years ago. Water is directed around the field from the high side road and drains easily off the turf itself. How slippery is the turf I couldn't tell you versus other fields in the rain, but I'm guessing about the same. I'm kind of bummed the weather isn't looking so good. I was thinking about running over and watching the game, but I'm not sitting out there in the rain, and I'm told we have company coming in that night.

I'm also kind of boycotting BSC since they seem to have reserved my traditional spot for their own tailgates. No longer first come first served on the hill. That takes a lot of the fun out of going.

I'll still keep an eye on the weather. When a possible home seed in the South is that close to me, it's generally worth the effort to go get a feel for them in person. Even if I don't expect BSC to put up much of a fight.

[BerryCollegeFan]

thanks for the feedback

[Hawks88]

They have brand new turf this season. We had some complaints about it, a couple of ankle injuries maybe attributed to it. When I walked on it after the game it didn't feel right, like my feet were shifting side-to-side. I didn't think there was enough of the fill/pellets in it. Maybe they have adjusted it since then.

[Ron Boerger]

In other news ... Rhodes junior LB Rowdy Kowalik gets a shout out in this ESPN story on Tim Duncan's hurricane relief efforts for the USVI (he handles social media and website for the social media-averse Duncan):  http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21137486/tim-duncan-brings-hope-hometown-hit-hard-hurricanes

[Pat Coleman]

They have brand new turf this season. We had some complaints about it, a couple of ankle injuries maybe attributed to it. When I walked on it after the game it didn't feel right, like my feet were shifting side-to-side. I didn't think there was enough of the fill/pellets in it. Maybe they have adjusted it since then.

Brand-new turf installs usually take some time and use to settle out. These types of fields definitely feel soft when first installed and the infill packs down a little bit after use.