FB: Southern Athletic Association

[awadelewis]

HX's remaining games against 3-5 Rhodes, 3-6 Sewanee will take care of the SOS.

Rhodes and Millsaps. And yes, I put that in the paragraph at the top. But I'm doing this on a week by week and not trying to look at projections.

Yep... we close the season next week with Centre coming to the Mountain.

[Ron Boerger]

Thanks for the correction (but point still true  )

Meanwhile, Hendrix won this week's d3football.com PoTW.   I've been to four games this year and have seen two PoTWs in person, sadly this one went against us but it was a heck of a play.

[albatross]

Thanks for the correction (but point still true  )

Meanwhile, Hendrix won this week's d3football.com PoTW.   I've been to four games this year and have seen two PoTWs in person, sadly this one went against us but it was a heck of a play.

not only are they brothers - they are identical twins! sorry to hear about the confrontation related to seating, Hendrix is known to have strong road attendance (and a few parents, make that a very loud few, are known to be uh...strong-willed...).

[BerryCollegeFan]

Thanks for the correction (but point still true  )

Meanwhile, Hendrix won this week's d3football.com PoTW.   I've been to four games this year and have seen two PoTWs in person, sadly this one went against us but it was a heck of a play.

That was an amazing play.  I can hear the coaches now ... Always be running to the ball, you never know how the ball might bounce.

[BerryCollegeFan]

Congrats to Berry's Soumahoro.  Another player of the week award.  But this time the special teams award is for blocking 2 extra points.

http://berryvikings.com/sports/fball/2017-18/releases/soumahoro_potw_2

[BerryCollegeFan]

Third time -- the big difference here is Hendrix sneaking in at 10. Considering they weren't even in my long shots before it's surprising, but with 2 RROs and a monster SOS, it's hard to ignore them in favor of anyone else. A huge boost to Berry's chance to host, Centre's shot at an at-large, and a hit to JHU's limited chance to host if it blocks W&L from getting ranked. Hendrix is a dead team walking, meaning they have no chance at making the field, so while they would be the correct choice given the criteria, it's possible the committee would look elsewhere for that 10 spot to maybe a projected ODAC champion. I'd also say with games against Rhodes (3-5) and Millsaps (3-5) ahead, Hendrix won't hold this monster SOS. Westminster's SOS, despite their impressive losses, would be a non-starter for me for a spot here, though giving that spot to Westminster would improve W&J's chances to host and Case's chances to get in. With Case and Westminster playing this weekend, however, that wouldn't really have a long term effect.

One other note as we approach the first regional rankings, with the now defunct once ranked always ranked, these preliminary rankings just don't matter. It's entirely possible the committee will take the easy way out and just go by record the first week, moving HSU down below the undefeated teams. It's a cop out but would save time, especially for something that has no meaning when they sit down and do the important ranking at the end of the season.


1) 8-0 UMHB (2-0 RRO South and West, 41 SOS) -- SOS keeps moving down
2) 9-0 Berry (2-0 RRO, 114 SOS) -- SOS has plummeted, but an extra RRO win has them looking good to host
3) 6-1 HSU (0-1 RRO, 35 SOS) -- Big SOS jump. Might jump Berry if Berry loses the RRO result
4) 8-0 W&J (1-0 RRO, 163 SOS) -- Meandering SOS doesn't help
5) 8-0 CWRU (0-0 RRO, 235 SOS) -- SOS should start moving up with last couple games, but Wash U hurts
6) 7-1 Centre (1-1 RR, 76 SOS) -- SOS held steady and picked up an RRO with Hendrix. Huge for at large chances, especially if CWRU loses one of their last 2
7) 7-1 JHU (1-0 RRO, 17 SOS) -- Big SOS gain. If W&L keeps winning, JHU's SOS will be ok. Jumped by Centre on Hendrix moving in
8) 7-1 F&M (0-1 RRO, 94 SOS) -- SOS dropped like a stone
9) 6-1 Huntingdon (0-0 RRO, 128 SOS) -- no RROs and a weak finish. Their SOS will continue to fall
10) 5-2 Hendrix (0-2 RRO, 13 SOS) -- who sees this coming? But a huge boost to Berry and Centre if they can hold position


Dropped Out
7-2 CMU (0-1 RRO, 206 SOS) -- tough loss to a good team

Long Shot
Westminster (0-2 RRO North and South, 142 SOS) -- big win but winning robs them of the RRO result
6-2 W&L (0-1 RRO, 54 SOS)
5-2 Shenandoah (0-0 RRO, 141 SOS)

Shouldn't Berry's SOS improve since Trinity is the last game and would have a SOS of .600 which is higher that Berry's current OWP

[jknezek]

Shouldn't Berry's SOS improve since Trinity is the last game and would have a SOS of .600 which is higher that Berry's current OWP

Maybe a bit, but a lot depends on Maryville and LaGrange. Berry's "Conference" SOS is going to be close to .500. Maybe a bit above, maybe a bit below depending on how conference mates do in OOC games with a small compounding factor for how your conference OOC records turn out. What really drives the needle above or below .500 is how your OOC opponents do. The more they win, the higher you can drag your SOS. The more they lose, the lower your SOS will go. And the more they win or lose against quality teams or poor teams you get a small multiplier or detractor.

It's just math based on records basically. So if you had an 11 team conference that played 10 conference games in a full round robin only, the SOS could only be .500. If you are the ODAC and have a 7 team conference this year, with 4 OOC games, or the WIAC with similar, high performing OOC opponents, you can really drive your SOS up.

There is a reason UWW and Wash U have massive SOS. Their OOC opponents have all done really well and they have several of them. Similarly you can look at SUNY Maritime, with 3 OOC opponents played and 5 wins between them, and you see why they have an awful SOS.

[jknezek]

First Regional Rankings are out:

South Region   SOS   Notes
1. Mary Hardin-Baylor 8-0
2. Hardin-Simmons 6-1 +
3. Berry 9-0
4. Washington & Jefferson 8-0
5. Johns Hopkins 7-1
6. Centre 7-1
7. Case Western Reserve 8-0
8. Franklin & Marshall 7-1
9. Huntingdon 6-1
10. Westminster (Pa.) 6-2


Versus my last set:
1) 8-0 UMHB (2-0 RRO South and West, 41 SOS)
2) 9-0 Berry (2-0 RRO, 114 SOS)
3) 6-1 HSU (0-1 RRO, 35 SOS)
4) 8-0 W&J (1-0 RRO, 163 SOS)
5) 8-0 CWRU (0-0 RRO, 235 SOS)
6) 7-1 Centre (1-1 RR, 76 SOS)
7) 7-1 JHU (1-0 RRO, 17 SOS) --
8) 7-1 F&M (0-1 RRO, 94 SOS)
9) 6-1 Huntingdon (0-0 RRO, 128 SOS)
10) 5-2 Hendrix (0-2 RRO, 13 SOS)


Kind of interesting. They have HSU in second. That's a SOS decision and it helps that they didn't rank Hendrix. How they chose Westminster over Hendrix is beyond me. There is nothing in the criteria right now to justify that other than Westminster having played an extra game. Hendrix has a far stronger SOS right now. JHU seems to have benefited from their SOS, to the detriment of CWRU. I'm guessing the theory here is that Case has the next two weeks to move up, so they aren't getting credit for being undefeated against mainly a pile of bad, bad, teams.

So the upshot is, they clearly went with SOS twice, giving the nod to HSU and JHU, and then for some reason completely dropped the SOS for the 10 spot. Not that it matters much except it cost Berry and Centre an extra RRO and shifted it over to W&J. Case and Westminster play this weekend, so that will sort out some of this.

And with that, I'm going to move this whole discussion over to the South Region Fan Poll thread where it probably belongs.

[Pat Coleman]

Regional rankings are out:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2017/first-regional-ranking

[BerryCollegeFan]

Shouldn't Berry's SOS improve since Trinity is the last game and would have a SOS of .600 which is higher that Berry's current OWP

Maybe a bit, but a lot depends on Maryville and LaGrange. Berry's "Conference" SOS is going to be close to .500. Maybe a bit above, maybe a bit below depending on how conference mates do in OOC games with a small compounding factor for how your conference OOC records turn out. What really drives the needle above or below .500 is how your OOC opponents do. The more they win, the higher you can drag your SOS. The more they lose, the lower your SOS will go. And the more they win or lose against quality teams or poor teams you get a small multiplier or detractor.

It's just math based on records basically. So if you had an 11 team conference that played 10 conference games in a full round robin only, the SOS could only be .500. If you are the ODAC and have a 7 team conference this year, with 4 OOC games, or the WIAC with similar, high performing OOC opponents, you can really drive your SOS up.

There is a reason UWW and Wash U have massive SOS. Their OOC opponents have all done really well and they have several of them. Similarly you can look at SUNY Maritime, with 3 OOC opponents played and 5 wins between them, and you see why they have an awful SOS.

I believe Maryville and LaGrange play this weekend.  So that won't help the average at all.  All the ooc games have been played for SAA so it seems the overall conference w/l record is available.

[jknezek]

Shouldn't Berry's SOS improve since Trinity is the last game and would have a SOS of .600 which is higher that Berry's current OWP

Maybe a bit, but a lot depends on Maryville and LaGrange. Berry's "Conference" SOS is going to be close to .500. Maybe a bit above, maybe a bit below depending on how conference mates do in OOC games with a small compounding factor for how your conference OOC records turn out. What really drives the needle above or below .500 is how your OOC opponents do. The more they win, the higher you can drag your SOS. The more they lose, the lower your SOS will go. And the more they win or lose against quality teams or poor teams you get a small multiplier or detractor.

It's just math based on records basically. So if you had an 11 team conference that played 10 conference games in a full round robin only, the SOS could only be .500. If you are the ODAC and have a 7 team conference this year, with 4 OOC games, or the WIAC with similar, high performing OOC opponents, you can really drive your SOS up.

There is a reason UWW and Wash U have massive SOS. Their OOC opponents have all done really well and they have several of them. Similarly you can look at SUNY Maritime, with 3 OOC opponents played and 5 wins between them, and you see why they have an awful SOS.

I believe Maryville and LaGrange play this weekend.  So that won't help the average at all.  All the ooc games have been played for SAA so it seems the overall conference w/l record is available.

But not all your OOC opponents have finished their schedule. An OOC who is 4-4 now, but finishes 6-4 will change the SOS a bit. As will the opponents of OOC opponents. It's a math formula, with weekly updates, so every week it changes as you could see from my attempts at predicting Regional Rankings.

[albatross]

I've posted on this already on the BBall boards - but don't forget to tune into the SEC Network tomorrow night to watch Centre play Kentucky!

[Ron Boerger]

I've posted on this already on the BBall boards - but don't forget to tune into the SEC Network tomorrow night to watch Centre play Kentucky!

And may John Calipari have mercy on their souls.

[roocru]

Check out the Facebook post below for a very appropriate article concerning the in state game versus Austin College and Trinity.  The author, an AC alum, has been posting some amazing Austin College historical facts over the past several months.  Whether you are a fan of either school, this is worth a read!


https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10214173191193904&set=a.10201195493919583.1073741827.1537683178&type=3&theater

[Ron Boerger]

An entertaining game in San Antonio where Trinity got by Austin, 49-35, in a game that saw the teams put six TDs on the board in the first 13:30.   Unfortunately, the game was locally televised, and the excessive commercials meant the game lasted nearly four hours even with Trinity keeping the ball on the ground (368 yards on 45 carries) most of the game.    The first play from scrimmage for Trinity was a 84 yard Jay Foster TD run, answered two plays later by a Colt Collins to Kevin Ray 87 yard pass and run (to the 1!).   

The Tigers improved to 6-3 (5-2 SAA) and will close their season at conference champion Berry next week, hoping their newly found offensive prowess (nearly 1200 yards combined the last two weeks) will help them keep up with the Vikings.    Austin fell to 3-6 (1-5 SAA) and close their season at Rhodes.