D3 Basketball Ranking System

[Ralph Turner]

My bad!  Thank you for the clarification.

I did not check the browser to confirm the URL when I made that post.  I thought that I was on the Final 2011 poll when I quoted the #16 and #33 rankings.

http://www.d3hoops.com/top25/men/2010-11/final

Living in a world where Confidence Intervals, Odds Ratios and Relative Risk are not natural, but imposed upon me,  I look at these indices and wish for them to be displayed as a figure with standard deviations demonstrated.

Among 420 schools that play men's basketball, we are discussing the top Decile.   Also, I stated on another board, I think that a plane flight is worth 7 points in Home Court Advantage.  The flight back for the home team to become the visitor makes that a 14-point swing.  Pat Coleman quoted a coach's assessment that is was "20 points" when one got on a plane.

I like "7 points" more than the "20 point" swing.  I hope that we can keep that in mind as teams travel over the holidays.

[KnightSlappy]

Among 420 schools that play men's basketball, we are discussing the top Decile.   Also, I stated on another board, I think that a plane flight is worth 7 points in Home Court Advantage.  The flight back for the home team to become the visitor makes that a 14-point swing.  Pat Coleman quoted a coach's assessment that is was "20 points" when one got on a plane.

I like "7 points" more than the "20 point" swing.  I hope that we can keep that in mind as teams travel over the holidays.

Actually, that could be an interesting study. augie_superfan, would you be able to look at that with last year's data? How much did teams that had to fly across the country under perform expectations?

[Ralph Turner]

Among 420 schools that play men's basketball, we are discussing the top Decile.   Also, I stated on another board, I think that a plane flight is worth 7 points in Home Court Advantage.  The flight back for the home team to become the visitor makes that a 14-point swing.  Pat Coleman quoted a coach's assessment that is was "20 points" when one got on a plane.

I like "7 points" more than the "20 point" swing.  I hope that we can keep that in mind as teams travel over the holidays.

Actually, that could be an interesting study. augie_superfan, would you be able to look at that with last year's data? How much did teams that had to fly across the country under perform expectations?

i agree.  I would arbitrarily assume that a 500 mile trip, either by bus or by plane, is the 7-point difference.

A 500-mile flight by both teams to a neutral site would cancel out.  Most indices like 3 points as home court advantage in most (local) games.

How UAA teams handle it might be an interesting sub-group?

[smedindy]

Of course, it may be different when teams have a tournament and have time to get acclimated instead of a one-off.

[Ralph Turner]

Of course, it may be different when teams have a tournament and have time to get acclimated instead of a one-off.

That might show up in the sub-set of "second night tourney games".

[augie_superfan]

Actually, that could be an interesting study. augie_superfan, would you be able to look at that with last year's data? How much did teams that had to fly across the country under perform expectations?

Yeah, I could run through that at some point.  For last year, I basically have each game and it's predicted margin at the time of the game and then of course the actual score.  So I could easily compare how teams did that flew as opposed to the other games....I'd just have to identify those games in which teams flew.  Easy ones would be the tourney games.  Obviously some Thanksgiving/Christmas tournament games.  Are there any teams in the South/West regions that have to fly for any of their conference games?  I guess just about any SCIAC vs. NWC games would require a flight, right?

[Ralph Turner]

That is why I selected the 500 mile limit. 

You can get the mileage from the TES system at the NCAA.

500 miles on a bus or a flight to some school 500 miles away is still a long way from the fan base and is a night or 2 on the road.

[augie_superfan]

Updated predictions for tonight's games on the website:

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/nov-18-2011-predictions

NOTE:  Still has a big reliance on last year's rankings so the accuracy is limited.  Also, it assumes the team listed as HOME on the D3Hoops scoreboard page is indeed the home team.  With all the tourneys this weekend, a ton of games are at neutral sites.  If this is the case, just add 2.5 points to the margin listed to get the neutral margin.

Enjoy!

[augie_superfan]

Updated rankings for all teams thru Friday's games.  Also have predictions for today's games updated on the website.

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/

Prediction results thru 11/18/2011:  76.7% of games correct


NOTE:  Rankings are still heavily reliant on the preseason ratings.  Enjoy.

[augie_superfan]

Updated rankings thru Sunday's games:

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/

Also have predictions for the full slate of games Tuesday:

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/nov-22-2011-predictions

Some tight projected "Top 25" games tomorrow:

No. 8 St. Thomas	No. 21 UW-River Falls	1
Capital	No. 11 Wittenberg	-1
No. 20 Centre	Transylvania	0

[KnightSlappy]

Is the rating number basically points above average?


Also, Maine-Presque Isle and Nebraska Wesleyan are D3 teams.

[smedindy]

He talked about them in his explanation, KnightSlappy. They don't have enough D3 games to map properly.

[KnightSlappy]

Then carry on!

[augie_superfan]

Is the rating number basically points above average?

Yes, the way the rankings are scaled means you can interpret the value as the margin vs. an "average" team on a neutral floor.

Also, Maine-Presque Isle and Nebraska Wesleyan are D3 teams.

Over the long weekend, I'm going to rerun the games with M-PI and NW in them to see if there is much difference.  M-PI plays most of their D3 games upfront so, on second look, they should probably provide good data.  I think NW is pretty much the same way so we will see.

[sac]

Updated rankings thru Sunday's games:

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/

Also have predictions for the full slate of games Tuesday:

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/nov-22-2011-predictions

Some tight projected "Top 25" games tomorrow:

No. 8 St. Thomas	No. 21 UW-River Falls	1
Capital	No. 11 Wittenberg	-1
No. 20 Centre	Transylvania	0

Transylvania 72 Centre 64
Wittenberg 69 Capital 63
River Falls 79 St. Thomas 64