D3 Basketball Ranking System

augie_superfan · November 23, 2011, 10:14:55 AM

After some great games and some Top 25 upsets last night, I have updated the rankings on my website. I have a full listing of all rankings and the Top 75 also updated through Tuesday night's games.

System prediction results so far:

Correctly predicted winner: 75.9%

Margin correct within 5 points: 64.7% of the time
Margin correct within 10 points: 77.8% of the time
Margin correct within 15 points: 88.1% of the time

augie_superfan · November 24, 2011, 09:31:47 AM

Predictions for Friday's games:

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/nov-25-2011-predictions

Have a good Thanksgiving!

augie_superfan · November 26, 2011, 01:05:44 PM

Saturday's games:

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/nov-26-2011-predictions

Also have updated rankings

CityD3 · November 26, 2011, 08:07:18 PM

This is awesome.

augie_superfan · November 27, 2011, 10:34:28 AM

Quote from: CityD3 on November 26, 2011, 08:07:18 PM
This is awesome.

Thanks CityD3, glad you enjoy.

Here are today's predictions:

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/nov-27-2011-predictions

Expect an update to the website after tonight's games. Full rankings for all teams, and also expect for the first time this year: Conference Rankings and Team Strength of Schedule Ratings

augie_superfan · November 27, 2011, 11:19:25 PM

Updated thru Sunday's games:

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/

I have full rankings, Top 75 rankings including SOS rankings, separate SOS page with all teams and conference rankings

Enjoy!

Ralph Turner · November 27, 2011, 11:32:58 PM

Having UMHB and UT-Dallas in the Top 75 is good.

augie_superfan · December 03, 2011, 01:34:24 PM

Got the updated predictions for today's games online now:

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/dec-3-2011-predictions

The Top 75 and Full Rankings are updated also and I will have the rest updated after the full slate of games today.

augie_superfan · December 11, 2011, 11:10:23 PM

Site has been update thru Sunday's games: https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/

As of today's rankings, there is no longer any preseason bias. As of today, the system has predicted 1088 out of 1441 games correctly (75.5 %). Hopefully that percentage will continue to improve as more games are played.

The top team is currently Hope. This is bolstered by winning their only two Division III games with one of those being over highly ranked (#5) Wheaton.

Enjoy!

magicman · December 13, 2011, 07:29:13 PM

I check out these rankings all the time and have found them to be pretty accurate. I prefer them to Massey's. Keep up the good work. Plus K

augie_superfan · December 18, 2011, 10:17:29 PM

Updated the site through today's games (except for the yet to be finished Widener @ Occidental game).

augie_superfan · February 27, 2012, 11:48:37 PM

Final regular season prediction results:

3719 correct out of 4970 games = 74.83%

I have added a page that has my system's bracket prediction for the entire tournament. I also have a page that shows the Round 1 games, the predicted winner, the predicted margin and the "odds" of winning that round. These will be updated after each round for the next matchups.

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/

Ralph Turner · February 28, 2012, 12:27:27 AM

Augie, how much did you give for Home court advantage?

Thanks.

augie_superfan · February 28, 2012, 12:43:17 AM

Used 3 points for the playoffs...had 2.5 all season long but it came out closer to 3 on the year so I figured to just use that. However, I can only do that for the first two rounds. I also don't have any effect for teams that will be flying, like Whitworth. So, for a potential UMHB vs. Whitworth matchup, my system tells me Whitworth in basically a toss-up but my head tells me to take UMHB.

Obviously the home-court advantage has a big potential to affect the S16 and E8 games but I can't predict the host team so I can't apply the HCA for those rounds.

Ralph Turner · February 28, 2012, 01:05:48 AM

Quote from: augie_superfan on February 28, 2012, 12:43:17 AM
Used 3 points for the playoffs...had 2.5 all season long but it came out closer to 3 on the year so I figured to just use that. However, I can only do that for the first two rounds. I also don't have any effect for teams that will be flying, like Whitworth. So, for a potential UMHB vs. Whitworth matchup, my system tells me Whitworth in basically a toss-up but my head tells me to take UMHB.

Obviously the home-court advantage has a big potential to affect the S16 and E8 games but I can't predict the host team so I can't apply the HCA for those rounds.

My bias is that a plane flight in D3 is worth about 7 points. I think that McMurry gains 4 net points due to travel.

Whitworth will be the best fundamental team that we have seen this season.