BB: Top Teams in West Region

[Teddy_Ballgame]

Changes could occur next week based on records against regionally ranked teams. RAC's don't necessarily know the rankings of other regions, and records vs. RR teams were not listed along with the first set of rankings.

Thank you, I didn't realize that! Makes the GFU-PP debate a little more interesting...

GFU has:
The same in-region winning percentage as PP (23-10)
The exact same record against Linfield (0-3) and CLU (1-2) who are regionally ranked, while PP also is 1-0 vs regionally ranked Ithaca
An 8-2 record against their other common opponents while PP is 10-3

On paper I think this is an interesting matchup. GFU has the benefit (or the curse) of watching from the sidelines as PP finishes up their season.

[108 Stitches]

And what about Trinity? If they do lose in their conference tournament, I assume they still get a Pool C?

This year Trinity has the easiest path to the Regionals since Centenary is not eligible for postseason play. They can come in 2nd and still make it. If they don't do this they will not get a bid IMO.

[CrashDavisD3]

First regional rankings released: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3baseball/2013/04/25/first-ncaa-regional-rankings-for-2013/
Should come down to the wire, and both teams will certainly be paying attention and hoping Linfield and Trinity take care of business in their conference tournaments.

Scratch that- looks like there isn't a post season tournament in the NWC. Linfield is ahead 4 spots in the loss column with 5 conference games left to play. They are pretty much a shoe in. The way I see it right now-
1. Linfield- Definitely in, NWC champion/Pool A
2. Cal Lu- Definitely in, SCIAC tournament still to be played/Pool A or Pool C?
3. UTT- ASC tournament still to be played, UTT or TLU or both will be Pool C candidates
4. Trinity- Should win SCAC tournament/Pool A
5. George Fox- Needs a Pool C
6. TLU- ASC tournament still to be played, UTT or TLU or both will be Pool C candidates

7. PP- 3 conference games, plus conference tournament

The ASC tournament, with it's opportunity to add 4 losses to a team's in-region record is a big question mark. If UTT doesn't get the auto bid, do they rack up enough losses to put themselves on the bubble? If TLU doesn't get the auto bid, do the losses that come with the tournament have enough of a negative impact on their record to bump them?

Also- is GFU pretty safe at this point? They only have games left against Corban (non D3?). And what about Trinity? If they do lose in their conference tournament, I assume they still get a Pool C?

The other thing I often forget to account for is that Pool C's are given out nationally... there's always the chance that the West gets 5 or 7 teams total, regardless of the fact that the rankings always include 6.

Yep the only thing can screw this list above is upset winners for Pool A bids for the ASC, or SCIAC or SCAC....Someone could stay home if that happens. The West last year did not even get enough teams to fill their 6 team regional. NCAA shipped a team from outside the region to the West Regional. A few years back Linfield got shipped to another regional and the West had 2 teams in Appleton.

George Fox and Pomona-Pitzer are on the bubble and any upset Pool A winners for SCAC, SCIAC or ASC will cause them to stay home. Also if Trinty does not win or finish 2nd in the SCAC tourney they get to stay home also...Linfield and Cal Lu are the only locks right now for the West Regional IMO.

Also being Regionally Ranked does not guarantee you will get a Pool C bid.

[Whatagame]

First regional rankings released: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3baseball/2013/04/25/first-ncaa-regional-rankings-for-2013/
Should come down to the wire, and both teams will certainly be paying attention and hoping Linfield and Trinity take care of business in their conference tournaments.

Scratch that- looks like there isn't a post season tournament in the NWC. Linfield is ahead 4 spots in the loss column with 5 conference games left to play. They are pretty much a shoe in.

Just for clarification, Linfield has already clinched. They only have three conference games left.  The last two games against conference opponents on the first weekend in May are "non-conference" add-on games that a number of NWC teams (excluding GFU) are playing to fill-out their schedules.

Overall this year, NWC teams were 18-12-1 versus the SCIAC.  Might this be a tiny factor tipping the scales toward GFU over PP?  I don't even know if something like this is even looked at?

[Teddy_Ballgame]

First regional rankings released: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3baseball/2013/04/25/first-ncaa-regional-rankings-for-2013/
Should come down to the wire, and both teams will certainly be paying attention and hoping Linfield and Trinity take care of business in their conference tournaments.

Scratch that- looks like there isn't a post season tournament in the NWC. Linfield is ahead 4 spots in the loss column with 5 conference games left to play. They are pretty much a shoe in.

Just for clarification, Linfield has already clinched. They only have three conference games left.  The last two games against conference opponents on the first weekend in May are "non-conference" add-on games that a number of NWC teams (excluding GFU) are playing to fill-out their schedules.

Overall this year, NWC teams were 18-12-1 versus the SCIAC.  Might this be a tiny factor tipping the scales toward GFU over PP?  I don't even know if something like this is even looked at?

I'm learning a lot today! Thanks for the clarification.

I don't know that the NWC record vs SCIAC would be an official criterion, but it's gotta be something that would show itself indirectly in other categories- particularly OWP and OOWP. I know if I personally had to rank the two teams, I probably have GFU ahead (barely) for reasons I have trouble articulating but I think have a lot to do with the record you cite. I think it's a pretty decent sample too- it doesn't include CMS or Cal Tech.

Still, I think ultimately I would rather be PP and still have a chance to make their case on the field. I'm not sure what exactly the Hens would need to do in the last 3 round robin games and conference tournament to pull ahead of GFU, but winning out (even excepting a loss to CLU in the championship) would probably do it. Trouble is, ULV, Oxy, and Whittier have all taken a game from them this year so it won't be easy.

[TexasBB]

Just for clarificaiton on the ASC tournament. There are a total of 8 teams involved 4 from each division. It is broken into 2 rounds. In the first round The top seed in each division Texas Lutheran in the West and UT Tyler in the East, host the 4th seed from the opposing division in a best of 3 series taking place this weekend. The other games have the #2 seed from each division hosting a game against the #3 seed from the opposing division. The 4 winners of this round then play a double ellimination tournament the following week. The host team for that round is the highest remaining seed from the East division. So if UT Tyler beats Hardin-Simmons in its best of 3 this weekend it will host the double ellimination round.

No team can loose more than 3 games. (Go 2-1 in the opening round and loose twice in the double ellimination round.)
No team can do better than go 5-0 to win both rounds. In theory a team could go 7-2 and win the tournament ( 2-1 in the first round and 5-1 in and win the second round) however, that is highly unlikely.

TexasBB

[Teddy_Ballgame]

Does anybody have any sleeper teams that we haven't been discussing who could make a run for a bid in the regional? At this point, I think the 6 ranked teams and PP are the only ones with a legitimate shot at a Pool C. Maybe you can throw Occidental in as a (very) long shot if they win out and lose to CLU in the SCIAC championship.

But are there any teams from the SCAC, SCIAC, or ASC who could pull out an upset in the conference tournament? Louisiana College, for instance, seems to be playing pretty decent ball going into the ASC tournament and haven't lost a conference series in months.

And thank you TexasBB for the clarification on ASC tournament rules. They are definitely unique... but I probably should have looked these things up before posting How are the 4 remaining teams seeded for the double elimination round? Is it by overall conference record?

[Whatagame]

First regional rankings released: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3baseball/2013/04/25/first-ncaa-regional-rankings-for-2013/
Should come down to the wire, and both teams will certainly be paying attention and hoping Linfield and Trinity take care of business in their conference tournaments.

Scratch that- looks like there isn't a post season tournament in the NWC. Linfield is ahead 4 spots in the loss column with 5 conference games left to play. They are pretty much a shoe in.

Just for clarification, Linfield has already clinched. They only have three conference games left.  The last two games against conference opponents on the first weekend in May are "non-conference" add-on games that a number of NWC teams (excluding GFU) are playing to fill-out their schedules.

Overall this year, NWC teams were 18-12-1 versus the SCIAC.  Might this be a tiny factor tipping the scales toward GFU over PP?  I don't even know if something like this is even looked at?

I'm learning a lot today! Thanks for the clarification.

I don't know that the NWC record vs SCIAC would be an official criterion, but it's gotta be something that would show itself indirectly in other categories- particularly OWP and OOWP. I know if I personally had to rank the two teams, I probably have GFU ahead (barely) for reasons I have trouble articulating but I think have a lot to do with the record you cite. I think it's a pretty decent sample too- it doesn't include CMS or Cal Tech.

Still, I think ultimately I would rather be PP and still have a chance to make their case on the field. I'm not sure what exactly the Hens would need to do in the last 3 round robin games and conference tournament to pull ahead of GFU, but winning out (even excepting a loss to CLU in the championship) would probably do it. Trouble is, ULV, Oxy, and Whittier have all taken a game from them this year so it won't be easy.

I agree.  As they say in golf, its often nice to be "in the clubhouse early" with a good score, but in this case, I bet GFU wishes they had 2 or 3 D3 games left of the "non-conference conference" ilk to strengthen (or weaken I suppose, if they lose) their position.

[retired]

Correct me if I'm wrong about the SCAC, but Trinity is only guaranteed a bid with a second place finish if Centenary wins. Second place to anyone else and that team gets the Pool A.

[TexasBB]

For the double elimination round in the ASC tournament seeding is determined by the highest remaining seeds that won in the first round. So if both #1 seeds advance they will play the lower seed. In this case if UTT and Tex Lu both win the first round UTT would play the lowest seeded remaining team since it is the host school.

[Jack Parkman]

Correct me if I'm wrong about the SCAC, but Trinity is only guaranteed a bid with a second place finish if Centenary wins. Second place to anyone else and that team gets the Pool A.

That is correct.  I just don't see anyone other than Trinity getting the bid but if it is someone else, Trinity's chances are pretty much shot.

[OshDude]

Changes could occur next week based on records against regionally ranked teams. RAC's don't necessarily know the rankings of other regions, and records vs. RR teams were not listed along with the first set of rankings.

Thank you, I didn't realize that! Makes the GFU-PP debate a little more interesting...

GFU has:
The same in-region winning percentage as PP (23-10)
The exact same record against Linfield (0-3) and CLU (1-2) who are regionally ranked, while PP also is 1-0 vs regionally ranked Ithaca
An 8-2 record against their other common opponents while PP is 10-3

On paper I think this is an interesting matchup. GFU has the benefit (or the curse) of watching from the sidelines as PP finishes up their season.

The NCAA has GFU with a better record and a better SOS than PP.
GFU 23-10, .543
PP 23-11, .519

GFU's SOS is fourth in the region. The top three? MS College .568; Linfield .559; Whitworth .558.

[Teddy_Ballgame]

Changes could occur next week based on records against regionally ranked teams. RAC's don't necessarily know the rankings of other regions, and records vs. RR teams were not listed along with the first set of rankings.

Thank you, I didn't realize that! Makes the GFU-PP debate a little more interesting...

GFU has:
The same in-region winning percentage as PP (23-10)
The exact same record against Linfield (0-3) and CLU (1-2) who are regionally ranked, while PP also is 1-0 vs regionally ranked Ithaca
An 8-2 record against their other common opponents while PP is 10-3

On paper I think this is an interesting matchup. GFU has the benefit (or the curse) of watching from the sidelines as PP finishes up their season.

The NCAA has GFU with a better record and a better SOS than PP.
GFU 23-10, .543
PP 23-11, .519

GFU's SOS is fourth in the region. The top three? MS College .568; Linfield .559; Whitworth .558.

Thank you. I had been omitting a PP loss to Buena Vista while in Arizona, thinking it was out of region. But I recall hearing somewhere that the AZ tournament now counts as in region (granted, my math for their record would still have been off).

Taking your input into account, PP going 4-1 with only a loss to CLU still may not be enough to jump GFU. Doing so would bring their records to a near tie (GFU 23-10, .696 WP; PP 27-12, .692 WP), and while the rest of their schedule will likely boost PP's SOS, probably not enough to bring them in line with Fox. And my previous comment points to the rest of the relevant numbers looking like a wash.

Regardless of the comparisons between PP and Fox and PP and TLU, the Hens still get the opportunity to go out this weekend and next weekend and take the decision out of the hands of some committee by winning the SCIAC tournament. Their destiny is still in their own hands.

Where are the NCAA's numbers available by the way?

[Ralph Turner]

Just for clarificaiton on the ASC tournament. There are a total of 8 teams involved 4 from each division. It is broken into 2 rounds. In the first round The top seed in each division Texas Lutheran in the West and UT Tyler in the East, host the 4th seed from the opposing division in a best of 3 series taking place this weekend. The other games have the #2 seed from each division hosting a game against the #3 seed from the opposing division. The 4 winners of this round then play a double ellimination tournament the following week. The host team for that round is the highest remaining seed from the East division. So if UT Tyler beats Hardin-Simmons in its best of 3 this weekend it will host the double ellimination round.

No team can loose more than 3 games. (Go 2-1 in the opening round and loose twice in the double ellimination round.)
No team can do better than go 5-0 to win both rounds. In theory a team could go 7-2 and win the tournament ( 2-1 in the first round and 5-1 in and win the second round) however, that is highly unlikely.

TexasBB

Not picking on you TexasBB, but my randomly associated brain wonders:

If a team only needs one "L" to be eliminated in a single elimination tourney format,
then does a team need 2 "L's" to be elliminated in a double ellimination tourney format?   

(Anyway, that is why I use Firefox with the built-in spell check as my browser of preference.     )

[Ralph Turner]

Changes could occur next week based on records against regionally ranked teams. RAC's don't necessarily know the rankings of other regions, and records vs. RR teams were not listed along with the first set of rankings.

Thank you, I didn't realize that! Makes the GFU-PP debate a little more interesting...

GFU has:
The same in-region winning percentage as PP (23-10)
The exact same record against Linfield (0-3) and CLU (1-2) who are regionally ranked, while PP also is 1-0 vs regionally ranked Ithaca
An 8-2 record against their other common opponents while PP is 10-3

On paper I think this is an interesting matchup. GFU has the benefit (or the curse) of watching from the sidelines as PP finishes up their season.

The NCAA has GFU with a better record and a better SOS than PP.
GFU 23-10, .543
PP 23-11, .519

GFU's SOS is fourth in the region. The top three? MS College .568; Linfield .559; Whitworth .558.

Thank you. I had been omitting a PP loss to Buena Vista while in Arizona, thinking it was out of region. But I recall hearing somewhere that the AZ tournament now counts as in region (granted, my math for their record would still have been off).

Taking your input into account, PP going 4-1 with only a loss to CLU still may not be enough to jump GFU. Doing so would bring their records to a near tie (GFU 23-10, .696 WP; PP 27-12, .692 WP), and while the rest of their schedule will likely boost PP's SOS, probably not enough to bring them in line with Fox. And my previous comment points to the rest of the relevant numbers looking like a wash.

Regardless of the comparisons between PP and Fox and PP and TLU, the Hens still get the opportunity to go out this weekend and next weekend and take the decision out of the hands of some committee by winning the SCIAC tournament. Their destiny is still in their own hands.

Where are the NCAA's numbers available by the way?

Buena Vista and PP are both in administrative region #4.  That is why the game is in-region.   

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