BB: Top Teams in West Region

Started by CrashDavisD3, February 20, 2012, 08:23:11 PM

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OshDude

Click a region at the bottom of the rankings at ncaa.com.

108 Stitches


Teddy_Ballgame

Quote from: Ricky Nelson on April 25, 2013, 07:28:11 PM
Click a region at the bottom of the rankings at ncaa.com.

Ah... thanks again!

Using the data here as a base I played around with some numbers- even with an optimistic outlook of how the final games go for each team, I can't see PP's SOS climbing above .530. Makes jumping Fox pretty tough.

TLU is still definitely within striking distance. Their record is better, but their SOS is pretty darn low (.484). And they could easily rack up 3 losses in the ASC tournament...

Of course, as Crash mentioned earlier, this only for regional rankings which obviously don't guarantee any bids.

Teddy_Ballgame

Trinity punches their ticket to the postseason, joining Linfield (who had a 3-0 weekend) in Pool A. This is good news for possible Pool C teams in the West and around the country.

In the ASC, all the higher seeds advanced to the double elimination weekend. UTT will have home field advantage and should be the favorite for Pool C squads not wishing to have to compete against them for a bid. TLU improves their resume with a 2-0 weekend.

In the SCIAC, the tournament field is set. Cal Lutheran went 3-1 on the week (24-4 in conference) and is the convincing 1 seed. Pomona Pitzer was 3-1 on the week (20-8 overall) and grabbed the two seed. Redlands had a couple big wins to grab the 3 seed (17-11 overall), and Occidental (16-11 with a game to play) will be the 4 seed. The tournament will be held over three days, double elimination with the higher seed hosting the opening round.

My updated regional rankings:
1. Linfield 30-4 (NWC Pool A)
2. Cal Lutheran 30-7-1 (If not SCIAC Pool A, lock for Pool C)
3. Trinity 32-7 (SCAC Pool A)
4. UT-Tyler 28-8 (Driver's seat for a Pool A from the ASC)
5. George Fox 23-10 (Pool C contender, no games left)
6. Texas Lutheran 29-10 (Still in running for ASC Pool A, also contender for Pool C)
7. Pomona Pitzer 26-12 (Still in running for SCIAC Pool A, need help for Pool C)

My only change from last week's initial rankings is flipping Trinity and UTT. Trinity went undefeated in the SCAC tournament, and twice beat a Centenary team that had their number in the regular season. Not a knock against Tyler, who won both their games and have the ASC finale this weekend.
George Fox and TLU have to be happy about Trinity, but will definitely need to keep rooting for conference favorites around the country to feel safe. I think Tyler is pretty much a lock even if they don't win the ASC, but two losses for TLU would really hurt. George Fox is in a pretty good spot too, with no chance of damaging their pretty strong resume. Pomona Pitzer can only be thinking about taking the SCIAC tournament, they would need a ton of help for a Pool C.

Just_Some_Guy

Quote from: Teddy_Ballgame on April 29, 2013, 02:40:49 AM
Trinity punches their ticket to the postseason, joining Linfield (who had a 3-0 weekend) in Pool A. This is good news for possible Pool C teams in the West and around the country.

In the ASC, all the higher seeds advanced to the double elimination weekend. UTT will have home field advantage and should be the favorite for Pool C squads not wishing to have to compete against them for a bid. TLU improves their resume with a 2-0 weekend.

In the SCIAC, the tournament field is set. Cal Lutheran went 3-1 on the week (24-4 in conference) and is the convincing 1 seed. Pomona Pitzer was 3-1 on the week (20-8 overall) and grabbed the two seed. Redlands had a couple big wins to grab the 3 seed (17-11 overall), and Occidental (16-11 with a game to play) will be the 4 seed. The tournament will be held over three days, double elimination with the higher seed hosting the opening round.

My updated regional rankings:
1. Linfield 30-4 (NWC Pool A)
2. Cal Lutheran 30-7-1 (If not SCIAC Pool A, lock for Pool C)
3. Trinity 32-7 (SCAC Pool A)
4. UT-Tyler 28-8 (Driver's seat for a Pool A from the ASC)
5. George Fox 23-10 (Pool C contender, no games left)
6. Texas Lutheran 29-10 (Still in running for ASC Pool A, also contender for Pool C)
7. Pomona Pitzer 26-12 (Still in running for SCIAC Pool A, need help for Pool C)

My only change from last week's initial rankings is flipping Trinity and UTT. Trinity went undefeated in the SCAC tournament, and twice beat a Centenary team that had their number in the regular season. Not a knock against Tyler, who won both their games and have the ASC finale this weekend.
George Fox and TLU have to be happy about Trinity, but will definitely need to keep rooting for conference favorites around the country to feel safe. I think Tyler is pretty much a lock even if they don't win the ASC, but two losses for TLU would really hurt. George Fox is in a pretty good spot too, with no chance of damaging their pretty strong resume. Pomona Pitzer can only be thinking about taking the SCIAC tournament, they would need a ton of help for a Pool C.

Good stuff, Teddy.

Just a couple of record adjustments.
1. Linfield 32-5 (NWC Pool A)
2. Cal Lutheran 31-7-1 (If not SCIAC Pool A, lock for Pool C)
3. Trinity 36-7 (SCAC Pool A)
4. UT-Tyler 32-10 (Driver's seat for a Pool A from the ASC)
5. George Fox 26-12 (Pool C contender, no games left)
6. Texas Lutheran 32-10 (Still in running for ASC Pool A, also contender for Pool C)
7. Pomona Pitzer 27-12 (Still in running for SCIAC Pool A, need help for Pool C)

Ralph Turner

Teddy Ballgame cited the REGIONAL record which is the primary criteria.  +1, Teddy! :)

Overall record, cited by JSG, is secondary criteria.

Just_Some_Guy

Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 29, 2013, 09:55:55 AM
Teddy Ballgame cited the REGIONAL record which is the primary criteria.  +1, Teddy! :)

Overall record, cited by JSG, is secondary criteria.

Totally missed that. Thanks for the clarification, Ralph!

JSG

CrashDavisD3

Quote from: Teddy_Ballgame on April 29, 2013, 02:40:49 AM
Trinity punches their ticket to the postseason, joining Linfield (who had a 3-0 weekend) in Pool A. This is good news for possible Pool C teams in the West and around the country.

In the ASC, all the higher seeds advanced to the double elimination weekend. UTT will have home field advantage and should be the favorite for Pool C squads not wishing to have to compete against them for a bid. TLU improves their resume with a 2-0 weekend.

In the SCIAC, the tournament field is set. Cal Lutheran went 3-1 on the week (24-4 in conference) and is the convincing 1 seed. Pomona Pitzer was 3-1 on the week (20-8 overall) and grabbed the two seed. Redlands had a couple big wins to grab the 3 seed (17-11 overall), and Occidental (16-11 with a game to play) will be the 4 seed. The tournament will be held over three days, double elimination with the higher seed hosting the opening round.

My updated regional rankings:
1. Linfield 30-4 (NWC Pool A)
2. Cal Lutheran 30-7-1 (If not SCIAC Pool A, lock for Pool C)
3. Trinity 32-7 (SCAC Pool A)
4. UT-Tyler 28-8 (Driver's seat for a Pool A from the ASC)
5. George Fox 23-10 (Pool C contender, no games left)
6. Texas Lutheran 29-10 (Still in running for ASC Pool A, also contender for Pool C)
7. Pomona Pitzer 26-12 (Still in running for SCIAC Pool A, need help for Pool C)

My only change from last week's initial rankings is flipping Trinity and UTT. Trinity went undefeated in the SCAC tournament, and twice beat a Centenary team that had their number in the regular season. Not a knock against Tyler, who won both their games and have the ASC finale this weekend.
George Fox and TLU have to be happy about Trinity, but will definitely need to keep rooting for conference favorites around the country to feel safe. I think Tyler is pretty much a lock even if they don't win the ASC, but two losses for TLU would really hurt. George Fox is in a pretty good spot too, with no chance of damaging their pretty strong resume. Pomona Pitzer can only be thinking about taking the SCIAC tournament, they would need a ton of help for a Pool C.

Good Job Teddy !! Great breakdown

I get to sit and watch the rest of the West in 2013 as Chapman fails to make playoffs for the 2nd year in a row after reaching the 2011 NCAA Championship game. Losing record and with the Head Coach still suspended not sure where the program will be in 2014.  I attended 4 Regionals (2007, 2008, 2009, 2010) 4 World Series in Appleton(2007, 2008, 2009, 2011).
This... is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.  "There are three types of baseball players: those who make things happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened."
Crash Davis Bio - http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/crash0908.html

Jack Parkman

I think the SCIAC Tournament should be a very exciting 3 days.  I was looking at all 4 teams and their records to see how they did against each other.  Here is a very simple breakdown.

1. CLU- 7-2 overall against the other tournament teams
    2-1 vs Pomona
    2-1 vs Redlands
    3-0 vs Oxy

2. Pomona- 5-5 overall against the other tournament teams
    1-2 vs CLU
    2-1 vs Redlands
    2-2 vs Oxy

3. Redlands- 4-6 overall against the other tournament teams
    1-2 vs CLU
    1-2 vs Pomona
    2-2 vs Oxy

4. Oxy- 4-7 overall against the other thournament teams
    0-3 vs CLU
    2-2 vs Pomona
    2-2 vs Redlands

It's pretty interesting that there was only 1 sweep out of all of these games and I think the tournament is going to be extremely competitive.  I am curious who Oxy will throw on Friday since they switched it up a little this weekend but who knows if that really means anything.  I do feel like Oxy has the most depth on the mound and we will see if that helps in the long run.

Teddy_Ballgame

Quote from: Jack Parkman on April 29, 2013, 12:46:03 PM
It's pretty interesting that there was only 1 sweep out of all of these games and I think the tournament is going to be extremely competitive.  I am curious who Oxy will throw on Friday since they switched it up a little this weekend but who knows if that really means anything.  I do feel like Oxy has the most depth on the mound and we will see if that helps in the long run.
Agreed on Oxy's depth on the mound. If you look at their pitching stats this year, pretty much everyone they've thrown out there (and that's a lot of guys) has had success. Starters and relievers almost all have ERA's sitting in the 2.00's and 3.00's. That bodes well if they can get into the later stages, but it doesn't help that they have to start the tournament at Cal Lu- the only team that didn't really have any problems hitting the Oxy pitching staff.

And call me a homer, but I've actually been pretty impressed with the depth of the Sagehens' staff as the year has progressed. Injuries to Rosenbaum and Yen after they had been fantastic in the rotation, plus the chronic injuries to Guy Stevens who would almost certainly have been in the starting rotation if healthy, have allowed for some other pitchers to grab more innings and sharpen their stuff. Collin Majev, for instance, had a great start against La Verne yesterday and may be a key to success in the tournament. And despite all the injuries, the Hens were still 2nd in SCIAC (behind Oxy) in overall ERA at 3.33.

CLU has had three good starters, but Habden and Peters both struggled this weekend. Roth has been fantastic in relief, but their depth in the bullpen is a little questionable (by the numbers anyway). The Kingsmen are pretty much a guaranteed to put up runs, but if opposing teams can keep pace and get into their bullpen they've got a shot.

And on the subject of pitching and depth, I think Redlands is in the toughest spot coming into the tournament. Smith and Hart are both good, experienced pitchers but their team ERA was almost 5 this season and the bullpen looks shaky. If those two get knocked out early, the Bulldogs are gonna have a really tough time staying alive.

CrashDavisD3

Quote from: Teddy_Ballgame on April 29, 2013, 02:00:00 PM
Quote from: Jack Parkman on April 29, 2013, 12:46:03 PM
It's pretty interesting that there was only 1 sweep out of all of these games and I think the tournament is going to be extremely competitive.  I am curious who Oxy will throw on Friday since they switched it up a little this weekend but who knows if that really means anything.  I do feel like Oxy has the most depth on the mound and we will see if that helps in the long run.
Agreed on Oxy's depth on the mound. If you look at their pitching stats this year, pretty much everyone they've thrown out there (and that's a lot of guys) has had success. Starters and relievers almost all have ERA's sitting in the 2.00's and 3.00's. That bodes well if they can get into the later stages, but it doesn't help that they have to start the tournament at Cal Lu- the only team that didn't really have any problems hitting the Oxy pitching staff.

And call me a homer, but I've actually been pretty impressed with the depth of the Sagehens' staff as the year has progressed. Injuries to Rosenbaum and Yen after they had been fantastic in the rotation, plus the chronic injuries to Guy Stevens who would almost certainly have been in the starting rotation if healthy, have allowed for some other pitchers to grab more innings and sharpen their stuff. Collin Majev, for instance, had a great start against La Verne yesterday and may be a key to success in the tournament. And despite all the injuries, the Hens were still 2nd in SCIAC (behind Oxy) in overall ERA at 3.33.

CLU has had three good starters, but Habden and Peters both struggled this weekend. Roth has been fantastic in relief, but their depth in the bullpen is a little questionable (by the numbers anyway). The Kingsmen are pretty much a guaranteed to put up runs, but if opposing teams can keep pace and get into their bullpen they've got a shot.

And on the subject of pitching and depth, I think Redlands is in the toughest spot coming into the tournament. Smith and Hart are both good, experienced pitchers but their team ERA was almost 5 this season and the bullpen looks shaky. If those two get knocked out early, the Bulldogs are gonna have a really tough time staying alive.

I predict the best hitting team win win not the deepest pitching. What happens in tournaments like this is everyone seems to run out of pitching at some point in this tournament. Cal Lu leads the SCIAC in Hitting, Runs Scored and Fielding, and 3rd in team ERA. Tough to beat Cal Lu and the Weekend games are at Cal Lu.

http://www.thesciac.org/sports/bsb/2012-13/teams?sort=r&r=0&pos=h
This... is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.  "There are three types of baseball players: those who make things happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened."
Crash Davis Bio - http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/crash0908.html

Teddy_Ballgame

This:
Quote from: CrashDavisD3 on April 29, 2013, 11:56:29 AM
I attended 4 Regionals (2007, 2008, 2009, 2010) 4 World Series in Appleton(2007, 2008, 2009, 2011).
Makes me take you pretty darn seriously here:
Quote from: CrashDavisD3 on April 29, 2013, 04:43:02 PM

I predict the best hitting team win win not the deepest pitching. What happens in tournaments like this is everyone seems to run out of pitching at some point in this tournament. Cal Lu leads the SCIAC in Hitting, Runs Scored and Fielding, and 3rd in team ERA. Tough to beat Cal Lu and the Weekend games are at Cal Lu.

http://www.thesciac.org/sports/bsb/2012-13/teams?sort=r&r=0&pos=h

Haha and I think you're right... to a point. In my experience on a couple very good teams that fell short at the regionals, depth on the mound was pretty important. You need guys out of the pen who can keep you in a game if and when a starter falters. One or two very good starting pitchers are great in getting you to the final stages, but they can't win it for you.

The other big thing in this double elimination tournament, and I think it supports your point Crash, is that it can be won in three games. So a Cal Lu can approach this like a regular season SCIAC series and use their three main starters with support from their best few arms out of the pen and theoretically win it all by going out and pounding the baseball without having to really dig too deep in their pitching staff (note: the numbers indicate that their staff is still pretty good. I'm not trying to take away from what their pitching has done. I'm just asserting that if there is some weakness on this team, it could be bullpen depth. Which is a weakness on pretty much any D3 baseball team.)

What would be difficult for me as a coach would be wrestling with when to use certain pitchers, knowing that I may well need someone to start a fourth game. My best long relief guy might also be my go-to #4 starter, but do I want to risk not putting him on the mound in the first or second game of the tournament just because there may be a fourth game? I tend to think you do whatever you can to win immediately in a tournament or regional, and worry about the rest later. But do you want to risk completely depleting your staff in the process?

Teddy_Ballgame

The rankings have been updated on D3baseball and by the ABCA for the week. Linfield still holds the top spot nationally in both polls (duh!), and all six regionally ranked teams plus Pomona Pitzer are at least receiving votes in both poles.

D3baseball.com (previous ranking)
1. Linfield (1)
8. Trinity Tx (9)
11. Cal Lutheran (11)
17. Texas-Tyler (17)
Ranking extrapolated for those receiving votes:
28. Texas Lutheran (30)
29. George Fox (29)
42. Pomona Pitzer (31)

ABCA
1. Linfield (1)
3. Trinity Tx (7)
8. Cal Lutheran (6)
17. Texas-Tyler (17)
22. George Fox (25)
27. Texas Lutheran (27)
30. Pomona-Pitzer (rv/32)

Trinity jumps up in both polls after their very impressive SCAC tournament championship and regional qualification. Everyone else pretty much stays steady- with the exception of P-P who lost a ton of votes from d3baseball, but jumped back in the rankings on ABCA.

It will be interesting to see if this order holds for the regional rankings. I imagine CLU will still be in the 2 spot, but Trinity should have at least jumped UTT. GFU didn't play, so do they drop behind TLU after TLU's 2-0 weekend performance? I wouldn't think so, but I do think it's safe to say PP is still on the outside looking in.

Ralph Turner

Of course Trinity had a good series and the wins over Centenary reversed some of the "bad outings" from earlier in the season.

Wheaton MA and Webster did not have weeks a good as one might expect.  Marietta's strength  "softened" a bit.

Lots of juggling in the mid-pack.

Ralph Turner

I have P-P at RV T-39, a 4-way tie.