BB: Top Teams in West Region

[CrashDavisD3]

A few years back Linfield got shipped out of the West Region. I don't recall where they were shipped but I believe they were a Pool A team.

They won that regional and went on to Appleton.

[Teddy_Ballgame]

Any thoughts on shakeups in the regional rankings?
Can't imagine 1-5 changing much... Cal Lu had a great weekend, but no reason for them to jump Linfield. UTT won the ASC, so they may break off from the tie with Trinity but no reason for them to jump Cal Lu who also went undefeated in winning their conference tournament. Trinity and George Fox sat on their tushes.

TLU did drop 2 of 3 though. They continue to show weakness against above average teams.
They were 16-2 in the ASC West- a division in which the #2 team was .500 overall on the year (and against whom TLU split 4 games).
Outside of the ASC West, they were 14-10 in games counting towards their in-region record.
       -They split with Louisiana
       -Dropped 2 to Trinity
       -Lost their only game with the Ozarks
       -Lost a series to UT Dallas.
Going solely by the head to head numbers in a conference where teams in different divisions have very different looking conference schedules, TLU failed to show that they were definitively better than any of the top 3 teams in the ASC West (UTT, LC, UTD).

Pomona-Pitzer also lost two games last weekend, but they won two and finished second in their conference tournament.
If you look at their full in region schedule, they have a winning record against every team except CLU and Linfield- the two best teams in the whole region.
They had 7 total games against those two teams, meaning 6 losses right off the bat, compared to just the two TLU had against Trinity. They had series wins against all 8 other SCIAC teams (3-2 vs both Redlands and Oxy, 3-1 vs ULV)
They were 4-0 against NWC opponents not managed by Scott Brosius
They had two wins (and six losses) against regionally ranked teams- 1-3 vs CLU, 1-0 vs Ithaca, 0-3 vs Linfield

Overall PP has an in-region winning percentage of .667 (28-14) compared to TLU at .714 (30-12). That's a seemingly large difference, but TLU finishes with a .492 SOS compared to PP at .525. The difference is more drastic in raw OWP, with TLU at .484 and PP at .529. I just think comparing the two, TLU is lacking in quality wins (series or otherwise) and has some more troublesome losses. .

So my biased rankings would look like this:
1. Linfield
2. CLU
3. UTT
4. Trinity
5. George Fox
6. PP
6.5 TLU

Also I think PP and George Fox are closer than others might expect. In terms of common opponents- PP was 14-10 to GFU's 9-7. GFU has the advantage in WP and SOS, which is the golden standard on these boards and for the selection committee. But I think those are more important when looking at large groups of teams and when comparing teams with little in common. When you have as much overlap in schedules as these two do, I think common opponents should have a lot more weight. And PP does have the advantage there. Obviously I don't expect PP to be ahead of GFU tomorrow, but just want to throw out another perspective.

[Ralph Turner]

I think that this week's regional rankings will be the final ranking because all teams have finished their seasons, and there are very few remaining games to impact the SOS in other conference tourneys.

[CrashDavisD3]

Here are the 5 teams that will be in West Regional. Not sure who will be #6. Pomona-Pitzer or Texas-Lutheran or team from another region,

1. Linfield
2. CLU
3. UTT
4. Trinity
5. George Fox

[NWBaseballFan10]

A few years back Linfield got shipped out of the West Region. I don't recall where they were shipped but I believe they were a Pool A team.

They won that regional and went on to Appleton.

It was 2008 when Linfield won the NWC by a game over George Fox, but the NCAA decided to ship Linfield to the Midwest Regional. I believe Linfield would have been the #2 seed in the West Regional, but they ended up being a #5 or #6 in the Midwest. I doubt that this would happen again in 2013 considering Linfield should be the #1 seed in the West but who knows (stranger things have happened ) If anybody is getting shipped anywhere it will probably be an out-of-region team coming to the West.

[Ralph Turner]

Back then, we had Chapman and Cal State East Bay participating in the tourney as Pool B bids.

We have actually hurt our chances for Pool C bids with the loss of good Pool B teams as they have moved into conferences (UDallas and Chapman) or left D-3 (CSU-East Bay to D2 and Menlo to NAIA).

I have conceptualized the statistical logjam that we get in Pool C as a peloton in cycling.

We seem to get quite a bit of separation from the leaders in the "lead" pack in the West Region from the rest of the 30-odd teams in Pool C.  I think that the "gap" allows other Pool C schools from the other regions to slip into the "gap" by "0.001 of a second".  We have a lot of teams that wreak havoc with the overall records that knock out "good" teams from Pool C contention.

The West Region teams have quality #1 and #2 pitchers on the squad.  When one gets to the northern regions, the opponent #2 pitcher will inflict the loss on a good squad that is contending for Pool A and C, but the good squad mops up in a given week when their pitching staff gets wins out of #1, #3, #4, #5 and maybe even pitcher #6.  Bingo, the team went 5-1 that week.  Conversely, in the ASC, earlier in the year, HPU's #1 beat the TLU #1, and the Bulldogs get a "bad" loss.  The weather in the West allows us to play starting in early February.  We rarely play more than 4 games in a week.  Five and six games is common up north!

[108 Stitches]

Last year Coe was brought in. Given the South Regional is in the Memphis area I would imagine it will be another Mid-West team.

[Ralph Turner]

Let's look at what the committee will see in TLU.

Good wins:
None to speak of.

It is what it is:
CTX  2-2
Losing to a CCIW mid-level Wheaton IL in game #2 1-0
Winning the MIssissippi College series 2 games to one.
Going 1-2 in the ASC finals
Losing to Trinity both times.

Bad losses:
UOzarks         losing 12-4
Hosting UTD and going  1-2 in the series
HPU loss in game #1 by a score of 2-1

TLU is 33-12, 30-12 in-region.  IMHO, there is not doubt that going 36-9 on the season (33-9 in region)  gets them in.

[CrashDavisD3]

Let's look at what the committee will see in TLU.

Good wins:
None to speak of.

It is what it is:
CTX  2-2
Losing to a CCIW mid-level Wheaton IL in game #2 1-0
Winning the MIssissippi College series 2 games to one.
Going 1-2 in the ASC finals
Losing to Trinity both times.

Bad losses:
UOzarks         losing 12-4
Hosting UTD and going  1-2 in the series
HPU loss in game #1 by a score of 2-1

TLU is 33-12, 30-12 in-region.  IMHO, there is not doubt that going 36-9 on the season (33-9 in region)  gets them in.

Looks like TLU stays home again. Wins over 30 but too many bad losses and not enough good wins vs SOS strong teams. Amazing how teams with 33 wins stays home but teams in the low to mid 20 wins gets in.

I know  all about SOS, In region....etc...etc....

[Teddy_Ballgame]

WOW. Pomona-Pitzer has jumped up to 5 in the regional rankings, TLU slides down to 6, and George Fox drops out entirely!
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d3/regional_rankings

Was not expecting the Hens to jump that high, nor would I have expected TLU to jump George Fox after going 1-2 and finishing 3rd in conference. George Fox's biggest weakness may be the fact that have a lot fewer in-region games than everyone else.

There are no games left to play in the west, so no changes can be expected in the order. However, the selection committee is independent of the regional committee and may go a different route in seeding, and may decide not to hand out a Pool C to either PP, TLU, or GFU. I think it would be a shame to have to ship a team into such a strong region (in terms of depth at least), but we will find out Sunday.

[BamColt]

Division 3 tourney picks are almost spun a wheel every year it seems. They dont have the resources or manpower the two other divisions above them have to determine who qualifies.

[TexasBB]

I think it would be a shame to have to ship a team into such a strong region (in terms of depth at least), but we will find out Sunday.

It would be more than a shame. As I stated in my post last week, the West region should be able to keep 6 representative teams and I among others would be angry if we have less than 6 representing the region. If they want to ship one out and a different team in that is ok as long as we net 6.

[Whatagame]

Well, I guess that since Pomona-Pitzer, TLU and G. Fox have combined for a stunning 2-15 record against ranked/region opponents, maybe 2 teams will be shipped out West.  Weren't two teams shipped-in to Linfield last year?  Coe and someone else I can't remember.

[TexasBB]

Take a look at the lower 2 teams in each of the other regions. The most likely regions to ship someone in from is from the south or midwest due to distance. P-P and TLU have better in region winning percentages and overall winning percentages than the bottom two in each of those divisions. So if they ship in another team it would not likely be superior to what we already have unless they ship in a top 2 or 3  level team from another region (not likely). Therefore any of those 5 or 6 level  teams would likely be inferior to what we have in the 5 and 6 spot already.

TexasBB

[Whatagame]

Yes, I hope not, it would be a shame not to field 6 West teams in Austin.