BB: Top Teams in West Region

[CrashDavisD3]

did the criteria change this year, as far as now doesn't every game count?  No more in region v out of region---or did I just make that up

Yes....

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/MANUALS_DIIIMBA_PreChampsManual_2013-14.pdf

Berths from Pool B and Pool C will be selected on a national basis, using regional selection criteria. There will
be no predetermined regional allocations for Pools B and C.

At-large selection :
To be considered during the at-large selection process (Pools B or C), an institution must play at least 70 percent of its
competition against Division III in-region opponents, unless a waiver has been approved by the Division III Championships
Committee. In-region competition consists of the following:
● All competition within an institution's defined sports region.
● All competition within an institution's geographical region (Constitution 4.13.1).
● All competition within a 200-mile radius from one institution to another.
● All conference competition

Section 2•4 Selection Criteria
Primary Criteria
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will
be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
● Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents.
● Division III head-to-head competition
● Results versus common Division III opponents
● Results versus ranked Division III opponents as established by the rankings at the time of selection.
● Division III strength of schedule
● Win-loss percentage — last 25% of the season (if applicable)
Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their third and fourth years shall count in the primary criteria.
Provisional and reclassifying members shall remain ineligible for rankings and selection.
Weighted Scale. Once the OWP and OOWP are calculated, they are to be combined on a weighted scale (e.g., 2/3 weight
for OWP and 1/3 weight for OOWP) and this combined number becomes the strength of schedule.
seConDary Criteria
If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria
listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against out-of-region Division III
and all other opponents including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA
Divisions I and II).
● Non-Division III win-loss percentage.
● Results versus common non-Division III opponents
● Non-Division III Strength of Schedule

[NWBaseballFan10]

My picks for Regional Tournament. Lots of baseball left but the picture is getting clearer. Tournament upsets can make things change. I will check back to see how far off I am in May 2013

SCIAC: Cal Lu
NWC: Linfield
SCAC: Trinity-Texas
ASC: Concordia-Texas
Pool C(2): Chapman, Whittier, Pacific Lutheran,  LeTourneau, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Texas-Lutheran

Not to interrupt the discussion on selection criteria, but here's my two cents on the regional predictions at this point.

As of now, I think the NWC, SCAC, and ASC conferences are the front runners for getting 2 teams into the Regional (These predictions are based solely on if the committee doesn't fly in a team outside the West Region). The only team at this point who could afford a slip-up in the SCIAC postseason tournament and still maybe get an at-large bid would be Cal Lu. I don't think Chapman's resume will be strong enough if they don't win the conference tournament. With this in mind, I think there are 11 teams right now with a resume that gives them a shot at the postseason.

ASC-
LaTourneau
MHB
Concordia

NWC-
PLU
Linfield
George Fox

SCAC-
Trinity
TLU

SCIAC-
Chapman
Cal Lu
Whittier

The conferences with 3 teams in the mix should only have two by season's end I'm expecting. I see Whittier and LaTourneau being 2 of these teams left out while the NWC situation is a bit more hazy (I'm not ready to toss Fox out of the mix, but they certainly have dug themselves in a hole for conference play).

[Spence]

did the criteria change this year, as far as now doesn't every game count?  No more in region v out of region---or did I just make that up

Yep, which means in theory it doesn't matter whether you go west or east if you're in Trinity's position.

There is the consideration of being able to put a lump on a team that you might be fighting for regional seeding (since in theory Pool C is considered on a national basis, another reason to go out of your region), but that's really the only difference now, at least as the book reads.

Birmingham Southern is playing New Paltz State, Otterbein and Wooster in Florida this week during spring break.

[108 Stitches]

NWBBFan10:

Two years ago St. Johns and Coe were flown in for the West Regional. (in Mc Minville)

[CrashDavisD3]

NWBBFan10:

Two years ago St. Johns and Coe were flown in for the West Regional. (in Mc Minville)

I expect at least one team in 2014 to be flown in from outside the West Regionals in McMinville this year.

I expect 2 teams from NWC, 1 from SCIAC, 1 from SCAC and 1 from ASC plus one from outside the region.

[dp643]

Trinity is the new #1 in the country. UMHB one spot away from cracking the top 25. A win tonight for the CRU would be huge for this young team.

[108 Stitches]

Top teams in West by D3Baseball.

#   School (1st votes)   Rec   Pts   Prev.
1   Trinity (Texas) (15)   18-1   605   2
2   Linfield (9)   15-3   603   1
3   Southern Maine (1)   4-1   554   3
4   Kean   11-2   542   4
5   UW-Stevens Point   4-1   518   5
6   Webster   5-2   446   6
7   Salisbury   12-4   423   7
8   Cortland State   10-4   387   8
9   St. Thomas   6-2   386   9
10   Rowan   5-0   384   13
11   Marietta   8-3   362   10
12   Wheaton (Mass.)   7-3   304   11
13   Cal Lutheran   12-4   303   12
14   Concordia-Chicago   9-2   275   16
15   Birmingham-Southern   15-3   260   21
16   UW-Whitewater   0-0   249   14
17   Mount Union   10-1   196   20
18   Shenandoah   12-2   195   rv
19   Johns Hopkins   6-2   159   18
20   George Fox   15-5   120   17
21   Concordia (Texas)   13-2   100   rv
22   Augustana   6-2   97   23
23   Case Western Reserve   11-3   96   24
24   LeTourneau   16-2   75   rv
25   Rhodes   15-5   54   rv
Dropped out: No. 15 Ithaca, No. 19 Manchester, No. 22 Bridgewater (Va.) No. 25 Washington and Jefferson.

Others receiving votes: Mary Hardin-Baylor 50, Ithaca 47, Heidelberg 47, Endicott 30, Washington and Jefferson 28, St. John Fisher 28, Buena Vista 23, Hampden-Sydney 23, Bridgewater (Va.) 22, Millsaps 21, Wis.-Oshkosh 18, Manchester 17, Frostburg St. 12, Huntingdon 9, Anderson (Ind.) 7, Dickinson 6, St. Scholastica 6, Otterbein 5, Alvernia 4, La Roche 3, Lynchburg 3, Covenant 2, York (Pa.) 2, Farmingdale State  1, Berry 1.

[Ron Boerger]

A little surprised TLU didn't at least receive some votes, but they did drop a 3-2 decision in walkoff fashion to Hardin-Simmons (7-9) yesterday.  That broke a seven-game Cowboys losing skein. 

[108 Stitches]

According to Massy.

Trinity TX
Linfield
Stevens Pt
Wisconsin
Rowan
M Hardin-Baylor
Shenandoah
Le Tourneau
St Thomas MN
Concordia TX
Tufts
Heidelberg
St John Fisher
Birmingham So
George Fox
Concordia IL
Pac Lutheran
Endicott
Trinity CT
Bethel MN
Webster Univ
Millsaps
Mt Union
Piedmont
Hampden-Sydney
TX Lutheran
Case Western
Methodist
Cortland St
Cal Lutheran
IAC Kean
Rutgers-Camden
Buena Vista
Bowdoin
Marietta
Connecticut
Emory
UT Dallas
WI Whitewater
S Maine

[Spence]

Well I know whose rankings I'm not using for anything.

Sure does love him some West and South region. Maybe a pretty decent ordinal within those regions, but the relationship nationally is just crazy wrong, and this happens every year with both him and Boydsworld. The latter must have given up on D-III rankings because I don't see them posted anymore.

D3baseball.com poll is also skewed, but not nearly as much. Happens every year and people never seem to do better at it.

[108 Stitches]

I prefer Massy since it is  analytically based, not someone's opinion. It won't be accurate for a couple of weeks until the Northern schools get their games in. If you follow it you see those schools coming up in the rankings and the weaker West and South schools moving down.

[Spence]

It usually remains West and South biased (right now it seems pretty messed up in the other regions though, even among teams that have 10-15 games played.

Like I say, this happens every year. If it was accurate, you'd see the West and South winning practically every year in Appleton. As I've said before, my thinking is that it overrates the difference between non-power D-II/NAIA and high end D-III. Perhaps the difference as the season progresses is less due to more games being played back east, but more D-III games being played in the west?

Just because something has numbers and is analytically based doesn't mean it's right. It's still subject to human error because that's what wrote the analysis routine, program, etc.

In other words, Massey's rankings are Massey's opinion, just formed by way of algorithm rather than empirical observation or analysis of raw data. They're not above criticism, especially when there's such a skew.

Eh whatever, no one gives a hang about these rankings outside this board, and it all gets worked out in the postseason. Just sort of my annual PSA on using these global computer rankings that weren't at all designed with D-III baseball in mind.

[108 Stitches]

Once the whole country has played 20-25 games there should be enough data to get an accurate assessment. 

[Spence]

Hasn't been that way in the past...not sure why it would be this year.

[dp643]

108...rumor has it a couple of big bats for the CRU wont be playing tonight due to injuries. Take it easy on us please.