BB: Top Teams in West Region

[CrashDavisD3]

I saw them very early in the season, but that was my impression of them, solid pitching, pretty good defense and so so offense. Their pitching should keep them in most games and the rest is up to the baseball gods.

Once all of the West teams get named I will pull up the NCAA data on them and do a comparison for fun.

One of the reasons Chapman is not one of the top teams in 2012 is defense. 10 losses by 1 run, 4 losses by 2 runs

27 passed balls, 82 errors, 47 unearned runs

[Jack Parkman]

Not sure if this is related to the entire region but the SCIAC has gone from 1-2 dominating teams to a bunch of pretty-good teams.  I don't think La Verne will last too long in the regional as their pitching was very suspect.  I do not think they were the best team in the SCIAC (I know it sounds stupid since they won it) and I wish Pomona got the chance in the regional.  The biggest change in the SCIAC is the bats.  Many of the SCIAC fields are launching pads (especially Pomona and Oxy) and the new bats have taken away the mentality that teams could rely on the long ball.  The league leader in HR's was Campbell from Pomona with 11 and Aldape from Oxy with 8.  In past SCIAC seasons the HR totals were much higher and the pitching numbers were very average.  With high school kids using the new bats the real (or lack of) tallent shows and those are the kids that are playing in college now.  The day of the meat-head who brings nothing to the team other that power are over.  The SCIAC recruits against each other all the time and they are all looking for the same type of kid- fast as hell and a good contact hitter.  Pitchers can throw inside again and the conference itself has ballanced out a bunch.

Obviously every team is using the new bats and are going through the same adjustments but the SCIAC was always a power-bat conference.  Getting a pitcher like Schwenn from Whittier or Rauh from Chapman (although he dominated with the old bats too) are very valuable as one mistake pitch is a lot less likely to get hit out of the park than it was before.

Boggs at Concordia has built that entire team around pitching and defense and I trully believe they are going to win the West regional.  I do think playing on the turf in Oregon will be an advantage for them too as they play on it all the time where most schools never touch it during the year.

[108 Stitches]

That is a great point about Concordia regarding their field.

Admittedly I have not seen CTX since the beginning of the season, but I think Trinity is a better overall team. Loosing Lucero takes from the favorite, but they have enough arms to get through a Regional IMO. Untimely errors (and as always, luck) will be the deciding factor IMO.

[Ralph Turner]

Trinity 3, CTX 2 Box score on 02/11/2012.

Lucero versus Grygar.

[El Hombre]

EttaFan posted a list of possible Pool C teams on another thread.  The list is below. 
Also listed below is a ranking of the top 10 teams in the West, ranked by RPI. 

The West Region only has 3 teams that are AQ, leaving 3 open Pool C positions.  However, if you review the list of possible Pool C teams, over 20 teams on that list have a higher RPI than the West's best Pool C possibility, Trinity at .571.  In Ricky Nelson's interview with Anthony Holman (Asst. Director of Championships), he stated that the committee takes into consideration the lower SOS numbers from the West, given factors such as fewer teams, travel limitations, etc.

The question is the following:  Given that consideration from the NCAA, will they fill all the West Region Pool C spots with teams from the West?  Or will they send in teams from other regions? 

Possible Pool C Teams - from EttaFan (see thread "Pool C Predictions" for criteria)
Rank   Team   Regional Win%     SOS    RPI   Region  Conference   Pool

1   Montclair State   .808   .583   .639   MA   NJAC   C
2   Rowan   .697   .571   .603   MA   NJAC   C
3   Eastern Connecticut   .679   .575   .601   NE   LEC   C
4   St. John Fisher   .750   .545   .596   NY   E8   C
5   Ramapo   .692   .564   .596   MA   NJAC   C
6   Chicago   .633   .582   .595   C   UAA   C
7   Southern Maine   .618   .587   .595   NE   LEC   C
8   Alvernia   .731   .549   .595   MA   MACC   C
9   Amherst   .769   .536   .594   NE   NESCAC   C
10   Neumann   .667   .570   .594   MA   CSAC   C
11   Shenandoah   .743   .542   .592   S   USAC   C
12   Bowdoin   .600   .580   .585   NE   NESCAC   C
13   Concordia (Ill.)   .737   .531   .583   MW   NATHC   C
14   Emory   .703   .538   .579   S   UAA   C
15   UW-Whitewater   .629   .559   .577   MW   WIAC   C
16   William Paterson   .667   .546   .576   MA   NJAC   C
17   Johns Hopkins   .625   .557   .574   MA   CC   C
18   Huntingdon   .667   .542   .573   S   GSAC   C
19   Millsaps   .639   .550   .572   S   SCAC   C
20   Bates   .593   .565   .572   NE   NESCAC   C
21   St. John's   .742   .515   .572   MW   MIAC   C
22   Washington College   .684   .533   .571   MA   CC   C
23   Trinity (Texas)   .795   .496   .571   W   SCAC   C
24   North Park   .727   .518   .570   C   CCIW   C
25   DePauw   .732   .515   .569   ME   NCAC   C


Now here is a list of the top 10 teams in the West, ranked by RPI . . .

RPI Ratings - West Region         
Rank  Team    Regional Win %     SOS    RPI
1  Concordia (TX)   0.795             0.500   0.574
2  Trinity              0.795             0.496   0.571
3  La Verne           0.667             0.532   0.566
4  Whitworth           0.773             0.494   0.564
5  Pacific              0.769             0.494   0.563
6  Chapman           0.545             0.560   0.556
7  Pacific Lutheran   0.647             0.523   0.554
8  Pomona Pitzer     0.676             0.510   0.552
9  Texas-Tyler          0.694             0.502   0.550
10  George Fox          0.606             0.528   0.548

[tigerfan_2001]

I think they will fly in one and maybe two teams from other regions.

[TexasBB]

I would hope that they stay within the region due to its diversity and travel issues. The SOS is impacted negatively by the inability of teams to travel far for "fill in games" (during the week) once conference play starts. So the teams schedule who they can that are relatively close. (see me earlier posts on this). With 35 teams available (total of 38 teams in the West Region) to fill 3 pool c spots they can find worthy teams within the region. I think Trinity is in so that leaves only 2 spots to fill out of the remainig 34 teams.

TexasBB

[108 Stitches]

Trinity is a lock and I would hate to be Pac Lu or Pacific. My guess is that Pacific* gets the other spot and that one other team is flown in.


* based on zero experience in this, but given that Pacific beat PacLu 2 of 3 they get the nod....

[Richard Hamstocks]

The Pacific/Pac Lu series was taken into account in last week's regional rankings, in which Pacific did not make the top 6.  Since then, Pacific has not played and Pac Lu dropped two in-region games (and one more against an NAIA opponent).  It seems unlikely that Pacific will leapfrog Pomona-Pitzer, but somewhat likely that Pac Lu will drop out (or at least below the two SCIAC teams behind them).  I would not be surprised to see Pacific enter at 6 this week.  If the west only gets one more pool C (beyond Trinity), does anybody have a feel for the relative merits of Pacific vs Pomona-Pitzer?  At least from the regional committees standpoint, they seem to like PP. 

[CrashDavisD3]

Regional Ranking Predictions for this week 
1  Concordia (TX)   
2  Trinity(TX)               
3  La Verne           
4  Whitworth         
5  Pacific             
6  Pomona Pitzer     

BUT 5 and 6 could be reversed. 

[Richard Hamstocks]

Regional Ranking Predictions for this week 
1  Concordia (TX)   
2  Trinity(TX)               
3  La Verne           
4  Whitworth         
5  Pacific             
6  Pomona Pitzer     

BUT 5 and 6 could be reversed. 

Curious as to why you think the orders would be switching when only Concordia (which I agree might move to 1) has played since the last regional rankings.  Pacific had 2-1 wins over George Fox, Linfield and Pac Lu during the season, but those teams on average went .500 over the weekend (as they only played each other), so that shouldn't help too much, if at all. Is it common for the regional committee to flip flop teams even when no new information is available?   

[CrashDavisD3]

Regional Ranking Predictions for this week 
1  Concordia (TX)   
2  Trinity(TX)               
3  La Verne           
4  Whitworth         
5  Pacific             
6  Pomona Pitzer     

BUT 5 and 6 could be reversed. 

Curious as to why you think the orders would be switching when only Concordia (which I agree might move to 1) has played since the last regional rankings.  Pacific had 2-1 wins over George Fox, Linfield and Pac Lu during the season, but those teams on average went .500 over the weekend (as they only played each other), so that shouldn't help too much, if at all. Is it common for the regional committee to flip flop teams even when no new information is available?   

Pacific was not ranked last week in regionally ranking. I am not sure if they will be #5 or 6 in my predictions. Of course I could be wrong and Pacific goes unranked like last week but that would wrong in my opinion.

[108 Stitches]

Curious as to why you think the orders would be switching when only Concordia (which I agree might move to 1) has played since the last regional rankings.  Pacific had 2-1 wins over George Fox, Linfield and Pac Lu during the season, but those teams on average went .500 over the weekend (as they only played each other), so that shouldn't help too much, if at all. Is it common for the regional committee to flip flop teams even when no new information is available?   

Richard I am not sure if any of the games from last weekend made it into the regtional rankings. I am with Crash as I think Pacific should be ranked, and possibly above PacLu.

[BigPoppa]

Regional Ranking Predictions for this week 
1  Concordia (TX)   
2  Trinity(TX)               
3  La Verne           
4  Whitworth         
5  Pacific             
6  Pomona Pitzer     

BUT 5 and 6 could be reversed. 

Curious as to why you think the orders would be switching when only Concordia (which I agree might move to 1) has played since the last regional rankings.  Pacific had 2-1 wins over George Fox, Linfield and Pac Lu during the season, but those teams on average went .500 over the weekend (as they only played each other), so that shouldn't help too much, if at all. Is it common for the regional committee to flip flop teams even when no new information is available?   

A lot of time the numbers can change based on other opponents results that they have played at another time of the season... or by a previous opponent (not orginally ranked) showing up in the rankings and bumping their record vs ranked opponents up or down as a result. There are a ton of factors involved.

[Richard Hamstocks]

Curious as to why you think the orders would be switching when only Concordia (which I agree might move to 1) has played since the last regional rankings.  Pacific had 2-1 wins over George Fox, Linfield and Pac Lu during the season, but those teams on average went .500 over the weekend (as they only played each other), so that shouldn't help too much, if at all. Is it common for the regional committee to flip flop teams even when no new information is available?   

Richard I am not sure if any of the games from last weekend made it into the regtional rankings. I am with Crash as I think Pacific should be ranked, and possibly above PacLu.

The regional rankings came out on Thursday, so they definitely didn't involve the weekends games.  I'm expecting changes as well, and think Pacific should be in there over Pac Lu (especially after this weekend). We'll see on Thursday, but I was interested in knowing why Crash is predicting La Verne to jump Whitworth and Pacific to jump Pomona.  Pacific entering into the rankings would seemingly help Whitworth as that would be an extra 2-1 against a regionally ranked opponent for them.  Wondering if there was something I'm missing.