BB: Top Teams in West Region

Started by CrashDavisD3, February 20, 2012, 08:23:11 PM

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TexasBB

New rankings are out. Find it interesting that Tyler beat Centennary 2 out of 3, the same team that has beaten TU 4 out of 5, and yet fell 3 spots from 13 to 16. In the meantime  TU only fell one spot from 9 to 10.  I am not sure how any of this works at this point. I am guessing that since Centennary is a provisional member winning or loosing to them must not account for much - treated like a non DIV III team?

This is not real important anyway as these rankings have nothing to do with what really matters and that is the regional rankings that don't come out until April 25.

Based on the DIV III poll the regional rankings would be as follows:
1. Linfield
2. Trinity
3. UT Tyler
4. George Fox
5. Cal Lutheran
6. Pomona-Pitzer

Texas Lutheran is mentioned but not ranked

This is certainly different that what Crash shows

TexasBB

Jack Parkman

Quote from: TexasBB on April 09, 2013, 11:30:02 AM

Based on the DIV III poll the regional rankings would be as follows:
1. Linfield
2. Trinity
3. UT Tyler
4. George Fox
5. Cal Lutheran
6. Pomona-Pitzer


I do not believe that is the case.  The polls are simply opinion (for the most part) but the Regional Ranking use solid data and formulas.  I don't think it would be too different (especially the teams) than this but I do think it would be different.

Spence

Quote from: Jack Parkman on April 09, 2013, 12:41:20 PM
Quote from: TexasBB on April 09, 2013, 11:30:02 AM

Based on the DIV III poll the regional rankings would be as follows:
1. Linfield
2. Trinity
3. UT Tyler
4. George Fox
5. Cal Lutheran
6. Pomona-Pitzer


I do not believe that is the case.  The polls are simply opinion (for the most part) but the Regional Ranking use solid data and formulas.  I don't think it would be too different (especially the teams) than this but I do think it would be different.

The order would be almost totally different other than #1 and maybe #3.

Richard Hamstocks

Quote from: CrashDavisD3 on April 08, 2013, 07:21:04 AM
CDD3 TOP 6 for the Regional 4-8-2013

1-Cal Lutheran 22-6-1 **** 15-1 last 16 games
2-Linfield 22-5-1         **** 2 losses in past 4 games
3-Texas-Tyler 25-8      *** Beat Centenary 2 of 3
4-Texas-Lutheran 25-8 * 11-1 in Conference Games
5-Pomona-Pitzer 22-7   * Next 3 games with Linfield
6-Trinity-Texas 26-7    ** Lost 4 games to Centenary * Lost to 6-14 Rockford  Needs to play top ASC Teams some year

Team - In region W% - SOS - Record vs ranked opponents (assuming all 7 were to be ranked)
Linfield - .833 - .520 - 0-0
UTT - .786 - .532 - 0-0
GF - .777 - .517 - 1-2 (CLU)
CLU - .767 - .531 - 4-2 (GF 2-1, PP 2-1)
Trinity - .759 - .457 - 1-0 (TLU)
P-P - .750 - .494 - 1-2 (CLU)
TLU - .733 - .458 - 0-1 (Trinity)

The data suggests that GF has a much better case for being ranked than TLU (though any person's rankings needn't be based on data alone).  Since the regional rankings are going to be data driven, it's something to consider.  I'd put CLU above GF today  (due to head to head and everything else being very close) but otherwise, I think things look about right.  Luckily, the regional ranking committee will be getting some good data very soon (P-P vs Linfield, Linfield vs GF) which will make their job easier than it is right now. 

Just_Some_Guy

Quote from: Richard Hamstocks on April 09, 2013, 03:05:15 PM
Quote from: CrashDavisD3 on April 08, 2013, 07:21:04 AM
CDD3 TOP 6 for the Regional 4-8-2013

1-Cal Lutheran 22-6-1 **** 15-1 last 16 games
2-Linfield 22-5-1         **** 2 losses in past 4 games
3-Texas-Tyler 25-8      *** Beat Centenary 2 of 3
4-Texas-Lutheran 25-8 * 11-1 in Conference Games
5-Pomona-Pitzer 22-7   * Next 3 games with Linfield
6-Trinity-Texas 26-7    ** Lost 4 games to Centenary * Lost to 6-14 Rockford  Needs to play top ASC Teams some year

Team - In region W% - SOS - Record vs ranked opponents (assuming all 7 were to be ranked)
Linfield - .833 - .520 - 0-0
UTT - .786 - .532 - 0-0
GF - .777 - .517 - 1-2 (CLU)
CLU - .767 - .531 - 4-2 (GF 2-1, PP 2-1)
Trinity - .759 - .457 - 1-0 (TLU)
P-P - .750 - .494 - 1-2 (CLU)
TLU - .733 - .458 - 0-1 (Trinity)

The data suggests that GF has a much better case for being ranked than TLU (though any person's rankings needn't be based on data alone).  Since the regional rankings are going to be data driven, it's something to consider.  I'd put CLU above GF today  (due to head to head and everything else being very close) but otherwise, I think things look about right.  Luckily, the regional ranking committee will be getting some good data very soon (P-P vs Linfield, Linfield vs GF) which will make their job easier than it is right now.

+1. This looks about right to me, though I'd probably have CLU leapfrogging both GF & UTT at this point.

I'd also have TLU on the outside looking in right now, but if they win 5 of their next 7 I think they're in the conversation. Though, you win the ASC tournament and you're in regardless.

JSG

OshDude

If those numbers are correct, it's hard to imagine CLU outside the top two, maybe even No. 1.

Another note that I'm sure most everyone knows: top 25 polls are not bound by regional ranking criteria, so it stands to reason that they could differ.

Spence

I'm not at home,. but from memory I think the order in my version of the top 25 has been Linfield (national #1 for 4-5 weeks for me), Cal Lu, UT-Tyler, George Fox. I almost ranked Pomona-Pitzer this week so I guess they'd be my #5.

TexasBB

A touching story of a boy that went from batboy to starter after loosing his father.

http://www.uttylerpatriots.com/baseball/news/195/2967/

Teddy_Ballgame

Quote from: Richard Hamstocks on April 09, 2013, 03:05:15 PM
Quote from: CrashDavisD3 on April 08, 2013, 07:21:04 AM
CDD3 TOP 6 for the Regional 4-8-2013

1-Cal Lutheran 22-6-1 **** 15-1 last 16 games
2-Linfield 22-5-1         **** 2 losses in past 4 games
3-Texas-Tyler 25-8      *** Beat Centenary 2 of 3
4-Texas-Lutheran 25-8 * 11-1 in Conference Games
5-Pomona-Pitzer 22-7   * Next 3 games with Linfield
6-Trinity-Texas 26-7    ** Lost 4 games to Centenary * Lost to 6-14 Rockford  Needs to play top ASC Teams some year

Team - In region W% - SOS - Record vs ranked opponents (assuming all 7 were to be ranked)
Linfield - .833 - .520 - 0-0
UTT - .786 - .532 - 0-0
GF - .777 - .517 - 1-2 (CLU)
CLU - .767 - .531 - 4-2 (GF 2-1, PP 2-1)
Trinity - .759 - .457 - 1-0 (TLU)
P-P - .750 - .494 - 1-2 (CLU)
TLU - .733 - .458 - 0-1 (Trinity)

The data suggests that GF has a much better case for being ranked than TLU (though any person's rankings needn't be based on data alone).  Since the regional rankings are going to be data driven, it's something to consider.  I'd put CLU above GF today  (due to head to head and everything else being very close) but otherwise, I think things look about right.  Luckily, the regional ranking committee will be getting some good data very soon (P-P vs Linfield, Linfield vs GF) which will make their job easier than it is right now. 

Great data! That's very helpful... Bearing all that in mind my rankings would be:
1. Linfield- After an opening day loss to ULV, all their losses came from three 3-game series where they took 2 of 3.
2. CLU- they're on a tear, similar to Linfield their in-region losses have come from 3 series in which they won 2 of 3 and one where they went 1-1-1.
3. UTT- In-region winning percentage is great, so is SOS. Need to finish strong in the ASC, but they're in the driver's seat.
4. George Fox- Can't ignore their SOS, quality wins, but they could easily drop down and out following the next two weekends against PLU and Linfield
5. P-P- All in-region losses have been in SCIAC and they are the clear cut #2 behind a very strong CLU (their only SCIAC series loss)
6. Trinity- Biggest blow is dropping 4 of 5 to Centenary, but with CU ineligible this year and the win against TLU, they deserve the 6 spot
7. TLU- Weak SOS and lowest winning percentage of the group. No real stand-out wins. Some questionable losses.

8. ULV? 18-9 overall, 15-7 in region
Pros- win against Linfield, Hardin Simmons Cons- Dropped one to CMS (ouch), still have to play CLU, 1-3 against top 6/7 in the West
9. Hardin Simmons? 20-12 overall, 20-12 in region
Pros- Seemingly strong schedule, all in region (I don't have their SOS), dismantled PLU Cons- 1-2 against top 6/7 in the West

Just_Some_Guy

Some big series this week w/ post-season implications:

Linfield vs. Pomona
George Fox vs. Pac Lutheran
Texas Lutheran vs. Hardin Simmons

Who ya got, gents?

-JSG

TexasBB

The first team in each list wining 2 out of 3.

Just_Some_Guy

Quote from: Just_Some_Guy on April 12, 2013, 11:23:03 AM
Some big series this week w/ post-season implications:

Linfield sweeps Pomona
George Fox vs. Pac Lutheran
Texas Lutheran sweeps Hardin Simmons

Who ya got, gents?

-JSG

George Fox and Pac Lu are split 1-1, but I think we'll see GFU's Zarosinski against PLU's Lubking today, which *may* favor the Lutes. It looks like all of PLU runs were unearned in their game 2 win, including 4 with two outs in the top of the 6th. Tough loss for GFU.

JSG

Ralph Turner

TLU clinches the ASC-West in their last season in the ASC.

They move to the SCAC next year.

TexasBB

ASC has lost a lot of good teams the past couple of years. McMurry, Centennary, Texas Lutheran and not any joining the conference. Got to wonder if it will be able to continue or will break up. The west division has especially been hit hard as Centenarry was only in the east for a year.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: TexasBB on April 14, 2013, 05:08:56 PM
ASC has lost a lot of good teams the past couple of years. McMurry, Centennary, Texas Lutheran and not any joining the conference. Got to wonder if it will be able to continue or will break up. The west division has especially been hit hard as Centenarry was only in the east for a year.
IMHO, Centenary always was just awaiting the invitation to join Trinity and Southwestern, their fellow members in the Associated  Colleges of the South.  (colleges.org)
I cannot think of any other schools that will move at this time.

The remaining 11 Presidents re-affirmed their commitment to the ASC last fall.

15/16 was always unwieldy.  The ASC could never get enough teams (18 or so) to split into two conferences.

I don't know where the remaining 11 would go.  D-1?  Who is D-1 material?

Who else wants to commit to D-2?  I think that several schools are looking to see how McMurry does in D-2.