BB: Top Teams in West Region

[OshDude]

Well, I guess that since Pomona-Pitzer, TLU and G. Fox have combined for a stunning 2-15 record against ranked/region opponents, maybe 2 teams will be shipped out West.  Weren't two teams shipped-in to Linfield last year?  Coe and someone else I can't remember.

Coe and Saint John's. Coe finished third at that regional as the No. 5 seed. No. 6 Saint John's went 0-2.

[108 Stitches]

I saw both of them and Coe was decent, St. John's was not. Coe was probably similar to a TLU this year from an eyeball point of view.... not that this matters.

P-P did as much as they could for themselves coming through the losers bracket to get second place in the SCIAC tourney. Getting swept by Linfield did not help GF's cause. LTU did not do enough to separate themselves.

Likely 2 teams shipped in but maybe P-P gets in.

[Ralph Turner]

Take a look at the lower 2 teams in each of the other regions. The most likely regions to ship someone in from is from the south or midwest due to distance. P-P and TLU have better in region winning percentages and overall winning percentages than the bottom two in each of those divisions. So if they ship in another team it would not likely be superior to what we already have unless they ship in a top 2 or 3  level team from another region (not likely). Therefore any of those 5 or 6 level  teams would likely be inferior to what we have in the 5 and 6 spot already.

TexasBB

Let's look at the stats for Wash U St L, #6 in the Central.

Team             Reg. record    Reg. win % OWP (rank)    OOWP    NCAA SOS
9 Washington U.    22-11    .667    .5903 (6)       .5328    0.571

Look at the OWP winning percentage, .590. 

Their 22-11 is incredible!  That is against 6th toughest OWP in the country!

Look at their games versus regionally ranked opponents.  (Designated by the bold.)

Overall: 23-15 - Conference: 0-0
2/22    at Rhodes    L, 16-7    BX RC RC
2/23    at Webster •    W, 3-2    BX RC
2/23    at Rhodes    L, 10-1    BX RC
3/3    at North Central (Ill.) •    W, 3-1    BX RC
3/4    vs. North Park •    W, 3-0    BX
3/4    vs. Buena Vista •    W, 7-4    BX RC
3/7    vs. Fontbonne •    L, 4-3    BX RC
3/10    vs. Brandeis •    W, 5-4    BX RC
3/11    at Emory •    W, 6-2    BX RC
3/12    vs. Case Western Reserve •    L, 13-3    BX RC RC
3/13    at Brandeis •    W, 13-5    BX RC
3/14    vs. Emory •    W, 6-0    BX
3/14    at Rochester •    W, 11-4    BX RC
3/15    at Case Western Reserve •    L, 6-2    BX RC RC
3/17    vs. Rochester •    L, 8-4    BX RC
3/22    vs. Illinois Wesleyan •    W, 5-4    BX RC
3/23    vs. St. Norbert •    W, 1-0    BX
3/23    vs. Illinois Wesleyan •    W, 6-3    BX RC
3/29    vs. Grinnell •    L, 3-2    BX
3/29    vs. Grinnell •    W, 4-2    BX RC
3/30    vs. Grinnell •    L, 16-3    BX
3/30    vs. St. Norbert •    W, 3-2    BX RC
4/4    at DePauw    W, 9-7    BX
4/4    at DePauw    L, 2-1    BX
4/6    vs. Webster •    L, 19-7    BX
4/6    vs. Webster •    W, 8-6    BX RC
4/11    vs. Fontbonne •    W, 13-1    BX RC
4/16    at Saint Louis    L, 5-4    BX RC
4/17    vs. Blackburn •    W, 8-4    BX RC
4/20    vs. Greenville •    W, 13-2    BX
4/20    vs. Greenville •    W, 9-0    BX RC
4/24    vs. Webster •    L, 10-7    BX RC
4/27    at Chicago •    L, 4-1    BX
4/27    at Chicago •    W, 3-0    BX RC
4/28    at Chicago •    W, 10-5    BX
4/28    at Chicago •    L, 2-1    BX RC
4/30    vs. Benedictine •    L, 5-4    BX RC RC
5/1    at Rose-Hulman •    W, 14-1    BX RC
5/11    vs. Chicago •    1:00 PM    LS
5/11    vs. Chicago •    4:30 PM    LS

Wash U is 4-5 against regionally ranked teams.

[TexasBB]

Ok I see theat Ralph, but if they move Washington U out of the Central then someone else has to move in since the Central will have 6 teams. Thus a lower level team moves in instead of just leaving them in the Central and leaving 6 western region teams to fill the west. So a team like Denison which is a 9th seed might be moved to the Central? In essence a 9th seed would be taking the place of 6th seed from the West if they do that type of shift.

[OshDude]

My early opinion is that the NCAA may need Wash U, if selected, in Millington. We'll see how the remaining Pool A dominoes fall. Whatever the case, my spreadsheet suggests the NCAA can/will need to get creative.

[BigPoppa]

Let's look at what the committee will see in TLU.

Good wins:
None to speak of.

It is what it is:
CTX  2-2
Losing to a CCIW mid-level Wheaton IL in game #2 1-0
Winning the MIssissippi College series 2 games to one.
Going 1-2 in the ASC finals
Losing to Trinity both times.

Bad losses:
UOzarks         losing 12-4
Hosting UTD and going  1-2 in the series
HPU loss in game #1 by a score of 2-1

TLU is 33-12, 30-12 in-region.  IMHO, there is not doubt that going 36-9 on the season (33-9 in region)  gets them in.

I can't see TLU getting a bid. One can say it is related to the incestuous scheduling in the West, but they reality is that TLU did not win the games that a team deserving of a bid should have won.

[BigPoppa]

I think it would be a shame to have to ship a team into such a strong region (in terms of depth at least), but we will find out Sunday.

It would be more than a shame. As I stated in my post last week, the West region should be able to keep 6 representative teams and I among others would be angry if we have less than 6 representing the region. If they want to ship one out and a different team in that is ok as long as we net 6.

The problem is that Pool C bids are NOT handed out regionally, but nationally. Anyone not grabbing a Pool A bid has to be compared to the rest of the teams in the NATION (not the region), which often becomes a beauty contest based on who they beat and lost to. In the committee's eyes, they choose the best Pool C teams regardless of region. Once that is done, then they sort out who goes where.

[BigPoppa]

By early Sunday much of this will be shaken out. As always happens, some top level locks for bids will lose their conference's Pool A bid and take a Pool C instead. It happens every year. If you are a bubble team, cheer for the teams ahead of you to win the Pool A bids. If you have two schools from the same conference ahead of you in the regional rankings, you might be in trouble as only one win get a Pool A... and you are forced to sit and wait for those ahead of you to be selected before you even get a look.

[forheavendial4999]

I think it was you Forheaven that suggested that Trinity, Concordia, TLU and maybe one other program invite some of the eastern power house teams (maybe a couple of West Coast teams would come) down for a round robin type of tournament over easter break. Great idea that probably won't get any traction, but good idea none-the-less.

Not so sure that was what I said...but it's one option. Traveling to play them is another. Meeting St. Thomas and Whitewater in St. Louis or something...once the Metrodome goes down they're going to be looking for places to play early in the year.

There are as many options as there are creative people to think of them. And there are as many excuses for not using those options too.

[forheavendial4999]

Ok I see theat Ralph, but if they move Washington U out of the Central then someone else has to move in since the Central will have 6 teams. Thus a lower level team moves in instead of just leaving them in the Central and leaving 6 western region teams to fill the west. So a team like Denison which is a 9th seed might be moved to the Central? In essence a 9th seed would be taking the place of 6th seed from the West if they do that type of shift.

No one can really be moved from east to west this year inside of mileage restrictions. You can't even get a team from PA to Terre Haute with less than 500 miles.

I think trying to predict the regions this year will prove to be a fool's errand. Anything could happen. I would like to see them ship more middle seed teams than just taking the two lowest in a region and moving them, thereby diluting whatever region they go to.

[OshDude]

Ok I see theat Ralph, but if they move Washington U out of the Central then someone else has to move in since the Central will have 6 teams. Thus a lower level team moves in instead of just leaving them in the Central and leaving 6 western region teams to fill the west. So a team like Denison which is a 9th seed might be moved to the Central? In essence a 9th seed would be taking the place of 6th seed from the West if they do that type of shift.

No one can really be moved from east to west this year inside of mileage restrictions. You can't even get a team from PA to Terre Haute with less than 500 miles.
...

There are PA teams that can drive to RHIT, but it will be interesting to see what the committee decides.

[forheavendial4999]

Ok I see theat Ralph, but if they move Washington U out of the Central then someone else has to move in since the Central will have 6 teams. Thus a lower level team moves in instead of just leaving them in the Central and leaving 6 western region teams to fill the west. So a team like Denison which is a 9th seed might be moved to the Central? In essence a 9th seed would be taking the place of 6th seed from the West if they do that type of shift.

No one can really be moved from east to west this year inside of mileage restrictions. You can't even get a team from PA to Terre Haute with less than 500 miles.
...

There are PA teams that can drive to RHIT, but it will be interesting to see what the committee decides.

I guess I meant from outside the region. Yes, La Roche and W&J are inside 500. Larger point being that basically anyone moving from NE/NY/MA regions (except within those 3, from NE to NY for instance) will be flying. So they could literally do just about anything they want as far as who goes where.

[Teddy_Ballgame]

I think it would be a shame to have to ship a team into such a strong region (in terms of depth at least), but we will find out Sunday.

It would be more than a shame. As I stated in my post last week, the West region should be able to keep 6 representative teams and I among others would be angry if we have less than 6 representing the region. If they want to ship one out and a different team in that is ok as long as we net 6.

The problem is that Pool C bids are NOT handed out regionally, but nationally. Anyone not grabbing a Pool A bid has to be compared to the rest of the teams in the NATION (not the region), which often becomes a beauty contest based on who they beat and lost to. In the committee's eyes, they choose the best Pool C teams regardless of region. Once that is done, then they sort out who goes where.

How they can use in-region criteria to determine bids nationally is beyond me. What does one team's success in the West have anything to do with another team's success in the Central? Now that's not to say Wash U and others aren't deserving. They may well be. But there's gotta be a better way to compare teams. Some metric to compare regions at least.

Now I understand that next year the committee will be using overall D3 record and not in-region? That will help, but will still lead to difficulties due to isolation, and (I'm guessing) a new reluctance for inter-region scheduling at the beginning of the season (which is the easiest time for teams to do non-conference games).

It just seems to me like it would be a lot easier to allocate bids strictly by region, with a pre-set number of bids per region.

[Ralph Turner]

I think it would be a shame to have to ship a team into such a strong region (in terms of depth at least), but we will find out Sunday.

It would be more than a shame. As I stated in my post last week, the West region should be able to keep 6 representative teams and I among others would be angry if we have less than 6 representing the region. If they want to ship one out and a different team in that is ok as long as we net 6.

The problem is that Pool C bids are NOT handed out regionally, but nationally. Anyone not grabbing a Pool A bid has to be compared to the rest of the teams in the NATION (not the region), which often becomes a beauty contest based on who they beat and lost to. In the committee's eyes, they choose the best Pool C teams regardless of region. Once that is done, then they sort out who goes where.

How they can use in-region criteria to determine bids nationally is beyond me.

(You sound like Mr Ypsi on the Hoops and Football Boards.    ) 

What does one team's success in the West have anything to do with another team's success in the Central? Now that's not to say Wash U and others aren't deserving. They may well be. But there's gotta be a better way to compare teams. Some metric to compare regions at least.

There is so little crossover play that you cannot find an easy metric.  I once imagined a Deviation from the Mean to compare the really good SOS scores that you see in New England and the Mid-Atlantic, with the near .500 scores that we see in the West Region.  If the committee did not acknowledge how really lousy our SOS numbers are in the West and ASC/SCAC, comparable to "nationally", then we would be skunked every year.

Now I understand that next year the committee will be using overall D3 record and not in-region? That will help, but will still lead to difficulties due to isolation, and (I'm guessing) a new reluctance for inter-region scheduling at the beginning of the season (which is the easiest time for teams to do non-conference games).

It just seems to me like it would be a lot easier to allocate bids strictly by region, with a pre-set number of bids per region.  

And then you get the problem of really strong regions not getting enough at-large bids when a region is really strong.  IMHO, the West was not really strong this year.  The ASC, as a whole, has been down for several years now.  I think that we will get two Pool C bids, kinda what we deserve.

[CrashDavisD3]

Formulas are too complicated IMO. What ever metric you use has flaws. Needs to be simplified. I am glad they are going away from in region stuff.