2012 Division III NCAA Tournament

[sac]

I am surprised that NYU who lost 3 of their last 5, got an at-large bid.  Stockton goes 4-1 down the stretch and has a tougher schedule and doesn't get in..

Last 5 games is not a criterion for the tourney.

I would dispute Richard Stockton playing a tougher schedule than NYU as well.

[njachoopsfan]

I am surprised that NYU who lost 3 of their last 5, got an at-large bid.  Stockton goes 4-1 down the stretch and has a tougher schedule and doesn't get in..

Last 5 games is not a criterion for the tourney.

But isn't strength of schedule.  They even made a not of that on the selection show what NYU's was not strong ..  So how you finish down the stretch has absolutely no bearing on selection to the tournament.

Stockton lost most of their games early in the season, losing 4 of their first 5 games and then went 18-4.   NYU started strong but didn't play well down the stretch.   It may not be an official criteria but losing 3 of 5 and 5 of 10 has to be considered when handing out bids.

Just sayin...

[smedindy]

You need to look at the entire body of work. I don't think the NCAA's SOS is really a good measure of, say, strength of schedule. But that's just me.

NYU - 29th in Massey, 87th in SOS
Richard Stockton - 78th in Massey, 140th in SOS

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

You need to look at the entire body of work. I don't think the NCAA's SOS is really a good measure of, say, strength of schedule. But that's just me.

Right, but it's still the criteria they use.  I thought, for most of the year, that Stockton was better than their record.  I thought the schedule was pretty tough, especially early on.  They lost more than they should have, but they played well in a conference that was pretty rough on each other this year.

[smedindy]

You need to look at the entire body of work. I don't think the NCAA's SOS is really a good measure of, say, strength of schedule. But that's just me.

Right, but it's still the criteria they use.  I thought, for most of the year, that Stockton was better than their record.  I thought the schedule was pretty tough, especially early on.  They lost more than they should have, but they played well in a conference that was pretty rough on each other this year.

But explain that 140th ranked schedule, though? That's good, not outstanding, especially compared to some other bubble teams.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

You need to look at the entire body of work. I don't think the NCAA's SOS is really a good measure of, say, strength of schedule. But that's just me.

Right, but it's still the criteria they use.  I thought, for most of the year, that Stockton was better than their record.  I thought the schedule was pretty tough, especially early on.  They lost more than they should have, but they played well in a conference that was pretty rough on each other this year.

But explain that 140th ranked schedule, though? That's good, not outstanding, especially compared to some other bubble teams.

Was that 140 based on the NCAA numbers or Massey?  The NCAA only cares about their own numbers.  If it was the NCAA numbers, then it's it a bit questionable.

To me, looking at who got in and who was left out, it seems like the regional committees put more emphasis on the SOS number and games against ranked opponents, while the national committee seemed to give a little extra weight to in-region wins - at least in some of the last spots.

[augie_superfan]

You need to look at the entire body of work. I don't think the NCAA's SOS is really a good measure of, say, strength of schedule. But that's just me.

NYU - 29th in Massey, 87th in SOS
Richard Stockton - 78th in Massey, 140th in SOS

The Massey ratings have margin of victory included so it's not really a fair comparison to the NCAA SOS figures

[smedindy]

Those were Massey numbers.

[sac]

You need to look at the entire body of work. I don't think the NCAA's SOS is really a good measure of, say, strength of schedule. But that's just me.

NYU - 29th in Massey, 87th in SOS
Richard Stockton - 78th in Massey, 140th in SOS

The Massey ratings have margin of victory included so it's not really a fair comparison to the NCAA SOS figures

You can use the BCS version found under the "more" tab, which takes out margin of victory. 

Stockton # 101
NYU  #39

[smedindy]

I think my point always has been that the NCAA's SOS calculation isn't really equivalent to a true SOS, and I know the NCAA uses their version, but I prefer a method that adds in more performance metrics.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I think my point always has been that the NCAA's SOS calculation isn't really equivalent to a true SOS, and I know the NCAA uses their version, but I prefer a method that adds in more performance metrics.

Right, but so long as the numbers are in-region only, they're going to be skewed.

I'm also part neanderthal in that I trust my own instincts about teams (informed by statistics) in many cases.  It's easier for me to accept a loss the first weekend of the season or at a tournament over Christmas break than it is for the computers to quantify those things.

That's just one example, and applies typically only to losses, but there are others.

I think, based on your offering of last five games data, that you want the teams who are playing best at tournament time to be there.  I agree.

It's why I like Stockton.  I think they played a tough schedule and rounded into form.  NYU was wildly inconsistent and may not actually have played a great schedule (verdict is still out on just how good the UAA is this season).

Still, the NCAA could care less about any of it.  They want numbers to run the show.

[smedindy]

You say they played a tough schedule, but the metrics don't match it compared to NYU.

[sac]

I think my point always has been that the NCAA's SOS calculation isn't really equivalent to a true SOS, and I know the NCAA uses their version, but I prefer a method that adds in more performance metrics.

Using efficiency for my fan poll voting.  NYU was in the top 25 all winter,  Richard Stockton was not really even close.


From the data I used, the 6 "best" teams in order, to not make the field were:

Augustana
Hampden-Sydney**  Had a massive blowout win that probably skewed things a little
Whitman
Lake Forest
Emory
Williams

[ECSUalum]

Just a shout out to Dave McHuge and Pat Coleman on a very informative Hoopsville tonight. Only my second time, (other when Coach Colbert of Keene was interviewed).   Nice job giving all quads and pods within some commentary, and I liked Dave's end comments re info. transparency from NCAA committees.  If there is nothing to hide, there is no imaginable reason why we, the D3 community, (Daves terminology), should not be able to examine the final regional rankings and any mathematical algorithms used to set the Pool Cs and bracketing

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Thank you... but you should watch more often!