2012 Division III NCAA Tournament

[NEPAFAN]

How about Scranton in the sweet sixteen?

[Ralph Turner]

Aside from IWU's big win over Hope, what's the next biggest upset of the tourney?

Was it Becker topping William Paterson in the 1st round?

Maybe Carroll U. over Transylvania in the 1st round?

Farmingdale State over Hartwick in the 1st round?

Trinity (TX) over Mary Hardin-Baylor in the 1st round?

Edgewood over River Falls in the 1st round?

I think it could be Carroll over Transy.  Carroll was 4th best in a weak MWC and pulled wins to take the conf. tourney. 

Edgewood over River Falls, possibly, but River Falls isn't very experienced in the NCAAs and Edgewood, despite not winning the NATHCON was supposed to be the best team in the conference.

6 host teams lost in the 1st round, 3 more in the 2nd round.  I think that's correct.

I would say Becker over William Paterson.   Where is Becker from?

Becker is from outside Worcester, MA.  They've been on the cusp of a minor breakthrough for several seasons now.  William Patterson was probably overrated.

I think Trinity over MHB is probably the biggest upset.  Trinity was the third? best team in their conference this year.

Carroll over Transy is another option, but no one was quite sure what to make of Transy this year.

Respectfully, I have to give props to Trinity's Coach Cunningham who brought along a very young, very smart, very disciplined team which put it together in the last half of the season. The fact that these players were down 20 points in the second half to Whitworth and came back to within 2 says a lot about them.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Aside from IWU's big win over Hope, what's the next biggest upset of the tourney?

Was it Becker topping William Paterson in the 1st round?

Maybe Carroll U. over Transylvania in the 1st round?

Farmingdale State over Hartwick in the 1st round?

Trinity (TX) over Mary Hardin-Baylor in the 1st round?

Edgewood over River Falls in the 1st round?

I think it could be Carroll over Transy.  Carroll was 4th best in a weak MWC and pulled wins to take the conf. tourney. 

Edgewood over River Falls, possibly, but River Falls isn't very experienced in the NCAAs and Edgewood, despite not winning the NATHCON was supposed to be the best team in the conference.

6 host teams lost in the 1st round, 3 more in the 2nd round.  I think that's correct.

I would say Becker over William Paterson.   Where is Becker from?

Becker is from outside Worcester, MA.  They've been on the cusp of a minor breakthrough for several seasons now.  William Patterson was probably overrated.

I think Trinity over MHB is probably the biggest upset.  Trinity was the third? best team in their conference this year.

Carroll over Transy is another option, but no one was quite sure what to make of Transy this year.

Respectfully, I have to give props to Trinity's Coach Cunningham who brought along a very young, very smart, very disciplined team which put it together in the last half of the season. The fact that these players were down 20 points in the second half to Whitworth and came back to within 2 says a lot about them.

They did well, but it was more a coming together at the end of the year, right?  Certainly not expected for most of us.  I think Carroll has to fall into the same category.

[Ralph Turner]

Aside from IWU's big win over Hope, what's the next biggest upset of the tourney?

Was it Becker topping William Paterson in the 1st round?

Maybe Carroll U. over Transylvania in the 1st round?

Farmingdale State over Hartwick in the 1st round?

Trinity (TX) over Mary Hardin-Baylor in the 1st round?

Edgewood over River Falls in the 1st round?

I think it could be Carroll over Transy.  Carroll was 4th best in a weak MWC and pulled wins to take the conf. tourney. 

Edgewood over River Falls, possibly, but River Falls isn't very experienced in the NCAAs and Edgewood, despite not winning the NATHCON was supposed to be the best team in the conference.

6 host teams lost in the 1st round, 3 more in the 2nd round.  I think that's correct.

I would say Becker over William Paterson.   Where is Becker from?

Becker is from outside Worcester, MA.  They've been on the cusp of a minor breakthrough for several seasons now.  William Patterson was probably overrated.

I think Trinity over MHB is probably the biggest upset.  Trinity was the third? best team in their conference this year.

Carroll over Transy is another option, but no one was quite sure what to make of Transy this year.

Respectfully, I have to give props to Trinity's Coach Cunningham who brought along a very young, very smart, very disciplined team which put it together in the last half of the season. The fact that these players were down 20 points in the second half to Whitworth and came back to within 2 says a lot about them.

They did well, but it was more a coming together at the end of the year, right?  Certainly not expected for most of us.  I think Carroll has to fall into the same category.

Yes, but they won the 6-team SCAC-West.  They had a 13-game winning streak ( 9 in conference, 3 in SCAC tourney, and 1 in NCAA 1st round).  They went 9-1 vs SCAC-West teams (losing to Colorado College on 12/3) and lost at home to BSC on 1/14, on the road to Sewanee on 1/20 and and Centre on 1/21.  That was 3-3 versus the SCAC-East.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Aside from IWU's big win over Hope, what's the next biggest upset of the tourney?

Was it Becker topping William Paterson in the 1st round?

Maybe Carroll U. over Transylvania in the 1st round?

Farmingdale State over Hartwick in the 1st round?

Trinity (TX) over Mary Hardin-Baylor in the 1st round?

Edgewood over River Falls in the 1st round?

I think it could be Carroll over Transy.  Carroll was 4th best in a weak MWC and pulled wins to take the conf. tourney. 

Edgewood over River Falls, possibly, but River Falls isn't very experienced in the NCAAs and Edgewood, despite not winning the NATHCON was supposed to be the best team in the conference.

6 host teams lost in the 1st round, 3 more in the 2nd round.  I think that's correct.

I would say Becker over William Paterson.   Where is Becker from?

Becker is from outside Worcester, MA.  They've been on the cusp of a minor breakthrough for several seasons now.  William Patterson was probably overrated.

I think Trinity over MHB is probably the biggest upset.  Trinity was the third? best team in their conference this year.

Carroll over Transy is another option, but no one was quite sure what to make of Transy this year.

Respectfully, I have to give props to Trinity's Coach Cunningham who brought along a very young, very smart, very disciplined team which put it together in the last half of the season. The fact that these players were down 20 points in the second half to Whitworth and came back to within 2 says a lot about them.

They did well, but it was more a coming together at the end of the year, right?  Certainly not expected for most of us.  I think Carroll has to fall into the same category.

Yes, but they won the 6-team SCAC-West.  They had a 13-game winning streak ( 9 in conference, 3 in SCAC tourney, and 1 in NCAA 1st round).  They went 9-1 vs SCAC-West teams (losing to Colorado College on 12/3) and lost at home to BSC on 1/14, on the road to Sewanee on 1/20 and and Centre on 1/21.  That was 3-3 versus the SCAC-East.

Maybe it's just because I was never all that impressed with BSC or Centre this year.

I can be convinced Carroll was the biggest upset - I just think taking down MHB was bigger than taking down Transy.

[KnightSlappy]

What's the ASC's history in the tournament? My gut feeling is that highly regarded teams flop more often than the reverse. Granted, they usually travel a lot, but that wasn't the case here.

[EDIT] Realized that info was probably in Gordon Mann's guidebook.

Looks like they're now 13-17, .433 (since 2002).

[Pat Coleman]

The guidebook is fantastic! It's been on my screen all weekend.

http://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2011/11/new-resource-new-season

[Ralph Turner]

What's the ASC's history in the tournament? My gut feeling is that highly regarded teams flop more often than the reverse. Granted, they usually travel a lot, but that wasn't the case here.

[EDIT] Realized that info was probably in Gordon Mann's guidebook.

Looks like they're now 13-17, .433 (since 2002).

I wish that the ASC could be flown to the F&M bracket every year.  That would give us 2-3 wins until we hit the "meat" of the tournament.

Sometimes highly regarded can be the perception that the coach sells to his friends.  UMHB started out about right (#16) and floated up because they did not lose any games.  (I always had UMHB on the underside of the distribution in the Poster's Poll.)

Sometimes the style-of-play match-up that you get determines your success. We ASC teams have trouble against traditional teams that have lots of height.  We usually get sent to the Midwest. We never have big men in the ASC. However, our guard play will give teams fits.  (509)Rat said that the McMurry (20-9 on the season) guard play was the toughest that he had seen all year. Whitworth could not put McMurry away.  We had a high pressure attack on the Whitworth guards all night.  McMurry had its all-conference big man Steven Jones on the bench with 2 fouls within the first 5 minutes. Whitworth should have had this game at double digits by halftime.

UMHB benefited from float up, but I thought that they would show better than they did against Trinity.  Give props to Coach Cunningham.

The true test of the UMHB "pod" may be how well that Whitworth performs.

As for overall strength of the ASC, they will always be "solid mid-Major" (around #10-15 of 40) in D3 in my book.  With the changes that are occurring, we should have a nice "West Region" mini-bracket with the ASC, the NWC, the SCIAC and the "new SCAC" as four travel orphans.

[Pat Coleman]

What's the ASC's history in the tournament? My gut feeling is that highly regarded teams flop more often than the reverse. Granted, they usually travel a lot, but that wasn't the case here.

[EDIT] Realized that info was probably in Gordon Mann's guidebook.

Looks like they're now 13-17, .433 (since 2002).

I wish that the ASC could be flown to the F&M bracket every year.  That would give us 2-3 wins until we hit the "meat" of the tournament.

Gotta win a home game against the team that went 12-4 in the SCAC at some point. Might as well be in the first round.

[sac]

Using straight Efficiency rating, the higher rated team went 23-7 in round 1, 12-4 in round 2 for a total of 35-11.

Using schedule strength adjusted efficiency rating, the higher rated team went 24-6 in round 1, 12-4 in round 2 for a total of 36-10.



Using straight efficiency calculations the biggest upset of the first round was....

St. Mary's over Bethany -15
Wittenberg over Birm-Southern -13
Trinity over MHB -11

Using schedule adjustment...

Trinity over MHB  -16
St. Thomas over Claremont MS  -8
St. Mary's over Bethany  -7
Carroll over Transy -7


Second round upsets

Straight efficiency
Scranton over Becker -13
IWU over Hope -5

Schedule strength adjusted
Scranton over Becker -7
IWU over Hope -6


For the Sectionals, the Four 'favorites' (same for straight or adjusted)

Middlebury
MIT   
Wooster
Whitewater

The Sectional at Whitewater is pretty much a statistical dead heat with all 4 teams within 2 points of each other.

[Ralph Turner]

What's the ASC's history in the tournament? My gut feeling is that highly regarded teams flop more often than the reverse. Granted, they usually travel a lot, but that wasn't the case here.

[EDIT] Realized that info was probably in Gordon Mann's guidebook.

Looks like they're now 13-17, .433 (since 2002).

I wish that the ASC could be flown to the F&M bracket every year.  That would give us 2-3 wins until we hit the "meat" of the tournament.

Gotta win a home game against the team that went 12-4 in the SCAC at some point. Might as well be in the first round.

One thing is for sure about next season...
as a D-3 fan at large, I won't have to defend the ASC for all of its foibles.

[Gregory Sager]

What's the ASC's history in the tournament? My gut feeling is that highly regarded teams flop more often than the reverse. Granted, they usually travel a lot, but that wasn't the case here.

[EDIT] Realized that info was probably in Gordon Mann's guidebook.

Looks like they're now 13-17, .433 (since 2002).

I wish that the ASC could be flown to the F&M bracket every year.  That would give us 2-3 wins until we hit the "meat" of the tournament.

Gotta win a home game against the team that went 12-4 in the SCAC at some point. Might as well be in the first round.

One thing is for sure about next season...
as a D-3 fan at large, I won't have to defend the ASC for all of its foibles.

When are you due to become a free agent, Ralph? The CCIW needs to know when to put in its bid for your fan contract.

[Ralph Turner]

What's the ASC's history in the tournament? My gut feeling is that highly regarded teams flop more often than the reverse. Granted, they usually travel a lot, but that wasn't the case here.

[EDIT] Realized that info was probably in Gordon Mann's guidebook.

Looks like they're now 13-17, .433 (since 2002).

I wish that the ASC could be flown to the F&M bracket every year.  That would give us 2-3 wins until we hit the "meat" of the tournament.

Gotta win a home game against the team that went 12-4 in the SCAC at some point. Might as well be in the first round.

One thing is for sure about next season...
as a D-3 fan at large, I won't have to defend the ASC for all of its foibles.

When are you due to become a free agent, Ralph? The CCIW needs to know when to put in its bid for your fan contract.

Right now, it looks like August 1, 2012.   

[smedindy]

Ralph, The NCAC could use some help against the OAC, CCIW and MIAA. Help the underdogs, like the Terriers!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Like the CCIW needs any more fans interacting?