2013 Division III NCAA Tournament

[Gregory Sager]

Just for the sake of reference, let's look at each of the Elite Eight teams' road thus far, using the latest d3hoops.com poll and the Massey Ratings:

St. Thomas (#1 d3h / #1 Massey)
UNR / #76 Aurora
#22 / #11 Wheaton (IL)
#12 /  #4 Calvin
d3h avg. = #25 / Massey avg. = #30

Williams (#8 d3h / #8 Massey)
UNR  / #43 Wesley
#9 / #22 Catholic
#25 / #20 Virginia Wesleyan
d3h avg. = #25 / Massey avg. = #28

Mary Hardin-Baylor (UNR d3h / #17 Massey)
-- bye --
UNR / #18 Concordia (TX)
#6 / #14 @ Whitworth
d3h avg. = #29 / Massey avg. = #16 or #148 (including bye)

St. Mary's (MD) (#11 d3h / #10 Massey)
#24 / #67 MIT
#26 / #23 @ Alvernia
UNR / #121 Morrisville State
d3h avg. = #30 / Massey avg. = #70

Amherst (#2 d3h / #5 Massey)
-- bye --
UNR / #66 Plattsburgh State
UNR / #16 Randolph-Macon
d3h avg. = #40 / Massey avg. = #41 or #165 (including bye)

Cabrini (#30 d3h / #26 Massey)
#16 / #9 @ Hampden-Sydney
#21 / #30 @ Ohio Wesleyan
#20 / #31 @ Wooster
d3h avg. = #19 / Massey avg. = #23

North Central (#3 d3h / #2 Massey)
UNR / #65 Centre
#5 / #3 vs. UW-Whitewater
#10 / #7 Illinois Wesleyan
d3h avg. = #18 / Massey avg. = #25

Middlebury (#7 d3h / #19 Massey)
UNR / #123 Curry
UNR / #29 @ Cortland State
UNR / #74 Ithaca
d3h avg. = #40 / Massey avg. = #79

(For all teams unranked by d3hoops.com, I assigned a #40 value, since 39 teams received votes in the last poll. For the two teams that received byes, the second Massey number includes a #413 ranking for the open slot, since there are 412 D3 men's basketball teams rated by Massey.)

[Gregory Sager]

Now, let's look at the Elite Eight in terms of their aggregate opponent rankings/ratings:

St. Thomas:	d3h avg. = #25 / Massey avg. = #30
Williams:	d3h avg. = #25 / Massey avg. = #28
Mary Hardin-Baylor:	d3h avg. = #29 / Massey avg. = #16 or #148 (including bye)
St. Mary's (MD):	d3h avg. = #30 / Massey avg. = #70
Amherst:	d3h avg. = #40 / Massey avg. = #41 or #165 (including bye)
Cabrini:	d3h avg. = #19 / Massey avg. = #23
North Central:	d3h avg. = #18 / Massey avg. = #25
Middlebury:	d3h avg. = #40 / Massey avg. = #79

A few things jump out:

* Cabrini's run is really impressive. The Cavaliers are the greatest road warriors since Mel Gibson. Not only have they faced the second-most highly-ranked teams (d3hoops.com), just barely behind NCC, and most highly-rated teams (Massey) on average, they've won all three of those games on the road. Cabrini needs to get much more of a shout-out from the d3boards.com regulars (myself included) for this remarkable feat than it's gotten thus far.

* Aside from Cabrini, North Central (representing the so-called "Bracket of Death") has had the toughest road to Salem. Williams and St. Thomas follow next, in close proximity to each other. St. Mary's and Mary Hardin-Baylor have had it comparatively easy, although I'd argue that UMHB's two-thousand-mile flight to beat Whitworth in the home gym of the Pirates more than cancels out the benefit of having a first-round bye.

* Amherst and Middlebury have had the two easiest roads to the Elite Eight, by either the d3hoops.com or Massey standard. Even if you were to take away Amherst's first-round bye and force the Lord Jeffs to play either one of what would've been the two likeliest choices for their first-round opponent if this was a 63-team bracket rather than a 62-team bracket -- the Brandeis Judges, who were unranked in the latest d3hoops.com poll and currently sit at #48 in the Massey Ratings, or the Springfield Pride, who are unranked and #97 -- Amherst's tourney strength of schedule doesn't improve much by either standard, and it certainly doesn't vault them past any of the other seven Elite Eight teams by comparison.

[Greek Tragedy]

* Amherst and Middlebury have had the two easiest roads to the Elite Eight, by either the d3hoops.com or Massey standard. Even if you were to take away Amherst's first-round bye and force the Lord Jeffs to play either one of what would've been the two likeliest choices for their first-round opponent if this was a 63-team bracket rather than a 62-team bracket -- the Brandeis Judges, who were unranked in the latest d3hoops.com poll and currently sit at #48 in the Massey Ratings, or the Springfield Pride, who are unranked and #97 -- Amherst's tourney strength of schedule doesn't improve much by either standard, and it certainly doesn't vault them past any of the other seven Elite Eight teams by comparison.

And Middlebury has won by 2 at home, 4 on the road and 1 at home. 

[Greek Tragedy]

I saw that Lakeland's Jake Schwartz was on the poll to be voted in as one of the last two players for the all-star team. Then I was disappointed when he didn't get enough votes. I see now that he did make the East squad. How did that happen?

It would have been great to see SEVEN games in just two days this weekend. How different are the prices this year with four games on Friday and three on Saturday? Looks like they could charge for an afternoon session and an evening session.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I think I've seen all but one of Cabrini's tournament games over the past three years, about a third of those in person.  The thing that jumps out at me over and over is their absolute fearlessness.  Road or home doesn't really matter because these guys genuinely play like whatever they try is going to work out.  They step up in big moments and don't get down in tough ones.  This is prime coaching pure and simple.  Whatever Kahn is doing to instill this kind of confidence in these guys is outstanding.

I'd compare it to the way last year's Kentucky team played - the big difference being Kentucky was the most talented team on the floor every time out.  These Cabrini guys are good, but they weren't the most talented team in Wooster on Saturday, they just didn't care.

I began watching them because they're close to where I live - I honestly came in seeing them as sort of villains, certainly outsiders and I think these boards have shown some of the rhetoric against them.  However, over three years, they've won me over.  I have a lot of respect for the approach they take to the game.

I think Amherst is the worst possible matchup for them - a team that can run as well, if not better, with better talent overall.  At the same time, there's no way I'd count them out.  I think this will be THE game to watch on Friday.

[magicman]

I saw that Lakeland's Jake Schwartz was on the poll to be voted in as one of the last two players for the all-star team. Then I was disappointed when he didn't get enough votes. I see now that he did make the East squad. How did that happen?

It would have been great to see SEVEN games in just two days this weekend. How different are the prices this year with four games on Friday and three on Saturday? Looks like they could charge for an afternoon session and an evening session.

Greek,

Jake Schwartz was chosen as a 1st Team All District Player from the Midwest Region. The NABC All Star Game features players that were 1st Team selections from the different regions. They take 2 players from each district to form the All Star Teams. That's how Jake made the team. 2 of the Midwest 1st teamers are from North Central and they can't be on the All Star team since they are still playing in the tournament. That only leaves 4 other players from the 1st team (the 1st team has 6 players on it) to consider for the All Star game choices.

Here's the link to all the NABC All District Selections:
http://static.psbin.com/z/e/dtmf3oj4do2ttt/2013_NABC_Division_III_All-District_Teams_and_Coaches.pdf

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

There is a good chance that of the two players selected ahead of him to play... one or both decided not to make the trip. So instead of being on the outside looking in after the fan vote, he is playing since he was the next in line.

[Greek Tragedy]

I think magic misunderstood me, but Dave cleared things up. Thanks.

[magicman]

There is a good chance that of the two players selected ahead of him to play... one or both decided not to make the trip. So instead of being on the outside looking in after the fan vote, he is playing since he was the next in line.

I think magic misunderstood me, but Dave cleared things up. Thanks.

Not sure that Dave cleared things up.

I looked at the rosters listed for the All Star game and both the players that were selected by the fan voting, Spencer Niekamp from Capital and Jake Galow of Rhodes were listed on the teams. Niekamp was put on the West team and Galow was on the East team (listed as Andrew Galow instead of Jake Galow). If, as Dave states, one of these players decided not to make the trip, then why are they listed on the team?   That was why I said that Jake Schwarz made the team for being a Midwest Region 1st team All District selection. Each All Star team has 9 players on the roster. If one of the players that was chosen in the fan voting decided not to go and that player was still listed on one of the All Star teams just to show that he was one of those chosen by the fans, then whichever team he's on would have 10 players listed so that they would still have 9 available for the game. Otherwise 1 team would only have 8 actual players. That makes me think that I'm correct when I stated the reason that Jake Schwarz is on the All Star team. We'll know for sure on Saturday I guess.    

[magicman]

I discovered that of the 6 players selected to the NABC's Midwest District 1st Team the only player that is playing in the All Star game is Jake Schwarz. Normally 2 senior players are selected from the 1st team of each of the 8 regions and then there are 2 players chosen by the fan voting. That gives us the 18 players, divided into 2  nine player teams.

In the Midwest Region two of the six players are on North Central and since they are still alive in the NCAA tournament they can't play in the All Star game. Two other players on the 1st Team are juniors and can't play in the game for that reason. That only leaves Jake Schwarz and Taylor Koth from Ripon as the two senior 1st team players available from the Midwest region. Koth apparently chose not to make the trip (I'm guessing here) because he's not on the All Star teams. The other player from the Midwest who is playing in the All Star game is Ethan Spurlin from Translyvania, who interestingly, was not a 1st or 2nd team NABC selection. Spurlin was a D3hoops All Midwest Region 3rd team this year and was selected for a number of honors last year as well. He's a good choice to round out the All Star teams.

So it would appear that Jake Schwarz is on the All Star team for the reason I mentioned in my first post in answer to the Greek's question. He isn't replacing a fan voted player. I guess I didn't misunderstand you after all Greek!      

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I am not saying the fan voted players aren't making the trip... I am saying the NABC has two guys from the East Region they have selected... so Jake Schwartz's opportunity is put up for a vote and he doesn't get in. However, the players in his region ahead of him or else where decide they can't make the trip, so Schwartz is added to the group. I also know with the number of teams in Salem and the decision NOT to reserve places for players on these teams as in years past for the final four... so they may have had to fill in some spots.

[magicman]

I am not saying the fan voted players aren't making the trip... I am saying the NABC has two guys from the East Region they have selected... so Jake Schwartz's opportunity is put up for a vote and he doesn't get in. However, the players in his region ahead of him or else where decide they can't make the trip, so Schwartz is added to the group. I also know with the number of teams in Salem and the decision NOT to reserve places for players on these teams as in years past for the final four... so they may have had to fill in some spots.

Dave,
Not sure what you saying about 2 guys from the East region. How does the East region come into play with the Midwest region? And  what I'm saying is Jake Schwarz didn't replace anybody for any reason. He was selected as one of only 2 seniors from the Midwest District 1st team. Nobody from his region or elsewhere could possibly be ahead of him according to the selection process the NABC has chosen to follow. I think it's pretty cut and dried.

I also believe that 2 years ago or last year the decision was made not to add players to the All Star rosters from the losing teams that were at Salem. That isn't something that's being done this year for the first time.

This statement sure sounded like you thought he might be replacing a fan voted player who chose not to make the trip. Especially the bolded part Notice I wrote you said... might be replacing... not that you said.. would be replacing. 

There is a good chance that of the two players selected ahead of him to play... one or both decided not to make the trip. So instead of being on the outside looking in after the fan vote, he is playing since he was the next in line.

I believe when you posted that, in reply to the Greek's question, you were throwing that out there as an option and I understand that it could have been the reason that Schwarz was on the team. However I believe the facts support what I  mentioned for his selection as the correct reason that he's on the All Star team. That's all I'm saying.     

[Pat Coleman]

I am not saying the fan voted players aren't making the trip... I am saying the NABC has two guys from the East Region they have selected... so Jake Schwartz's opportunity is put up for a vote and he doesn't get in. However, the players in his region ahead of him or else where decide they can't make the trip, so Schwartz is added to the group. I also know with the number of teams in Salem and the decision NOT to reserve places for players on these teams as in years past for the final four... so they may have had to fill in some spots.

Dave,
Not sure what you saying about 2 guys from the East region. How does the East region come into play with the Midwest region? And  what I'm saying is Jake Schwarz didn't replace anybody for any reason. He was selected as one of only 2 seniors from the Midwest District 1st team. Nobody from his region or elsewhere could possibly be ahead of him according to the selection process the NABC has chosen to follow. I think it's pretty cut and dried.

I also believe that 2 years ago or last year the decision was made not to add players to the All Star rosters from the losing teams that were at Salem. That isn't something that's being done this year for the first time.

This statement sure sounded like you thought he might be replacing a fan voted player who chose not to make the trip. Especially the bolded part Notice I wrote you said... might be replacing... not that you said.. would be replacing. 

There is a good chance that of the two players selected ahead of him to play... one or both decided not to make the trip. So instead of being on the outside looking in after the fan vote, he is playing since he was the next in line.

I believe when you posted that, in reply to the Greek's question, you were throwing that out there as an option and I understand that it could have been the reason that Schwarz was on the team. However I believe the facts support what I  mentioned for his selection as the correct reason that he's on the All Star team. That's all I'm saying.     

No offense, magicman, but Schwarz would never have been in the voting if he were in the top two. What is far more likely is that when North Central won on Saturday, Derek Raridon became unavailable to play in the game, making Schwarz the next choice.

Raridon, Koth and Schwarz were all seniors on the NABC team, as was Mark Lessen.

[magicman]

Pat,

I stated in an earlier post that  of the six players on the NABC 1st team from the Midwest Region 4 of them couldn't be in the All Star game. Raridon and Gamble were on North Central and still playing in the tournament. I stated that 2 other players on the 1st team were juniors. That only left 2 seniors Schwarz and Koth but only one of them, Schwarz, was on the team. I went to the D3hoops team page for Eureka to check on Mark Lesson and the link to their website brought up a crazy looking page that I have now found is outdated. (You need to change that link) I brought up an article from that page that stated Lesson was a junior but didn't realize the article was from last year. So there were 3 seniors that could have played in the All Star game but only Schwarz is on the team.  I realize that if Raridon and Gamble were not still playing that one of them, Raridon I'm sure, (maybe both) would have been selected for the All Star game and possibly Schwarz wouldn't be playing.

Here's the link for the Eureka website that you should substitute for the one you have:

http://eurekareddevils.com/index.aspx?path=mbball&tab=basketball(m)   

[Pat Coleman]

Magicman,

Gamble is a junior, not a senior. Might need to recheck your calculations. The seniors are as I listed them in my post: Raridon, Koth, Schwarz and Lessen.