Pool C -- 2012

[Mr. Ypsi]

Oh, and if you were wondering who it really should have been in my scenario, here they are:

Heidelberg 11
UW-Platteville 13
Wheaton 17
Elmurst 20
Concordia-Moorehead 21
Bethel 22
Pacific Lutheran 24

I agree with the comments about the problems with including polls in the decision-making.  However, I certainly could live with that pool C lineup!

Notice, however, that 4 of your 7 ARE pool C selections.

[K-Mack]

I agree with both points actually. While there should be some knowledge of the prior performance and Bridgewater probably isn't nearly on par with most of the rest of the field, you can't get in a situation where you are picking the same teams/conferences -- I think "self perpetuating" as Wally calls it. There has to be better balance. Where that is, I'm not sure.

Yup. This was a major issue with the old system. A team that had been undefeated before was always ahead of a team that hadn't, so the door wasn't even open for new teams to prove themselves.

There are examples of conferences that have come up. The SCIAC didn't get a bid from 1994 til the AQ, and didn't win a game until 2004, when Occidental beat Willamette at home, and Concordia-Moohead on the road, before losing at eventual champion Linfield in Round 3.

Since then, the SCIAC has progressed to where two of its teams can get in, if they earn it appropriately.

If there's too much subjectivity, teams have much less opportunity to earn respect for their conferences. This way, the AQ gives every conference a shot every year, and after that, nobody is entitled to an at-large bid.

We are seeing a shift toward rewarding SoS ... and believe it or not, that was a factor for Bridgewater State even though it's hard to believe that schedule compares to what Wheaton or C-M play.

The committee too feels a responsibility to give a fair shot to teams, and going by perceptions of conference strength too much, while it feels right to us, doesn't work for someone whose goal is to give teams who stack up on the criteria, regardless of conference or region, a fair shot. There would not have been much of an outcry had the Bears been left out, but if they are sitting there with a .510 or .520 and 1-1 vs. RROs and someone who is 0-1 with a sub-.500 (or whatever) gets in.

Based on the comments I've heard, I have to believe there was strong sentiment for Concordia-Moorhead, and whoever was on the board out of Wheaton and Wabash, and maybe Lycoming at the end. Perhaps the sentiment was so strong for some of these teams that it split the vote, and Bridgewater more or less backed in, by being say ... the No. 2 team on everyone's final vote, while C-M was No. 1 on some and No. 4 on others ... I don't know, but I bet it was probably a pretty slim margin.

Which is exactly why the AQ's are the key to what we do here.  These "lesser" teams have an avenue into the playoffs where they get the opportunity on the field to prove they aren't really lesser after all.  Once you lose a game, then all bets are off and it becomes a crap shoot.

This x 100.

We all have our opinion on which criteria should be selectively applied to what teams in which region, and we'd all like to see the "best" Pool C teams make it, but with such little inter-regional play in D3 it's impossible to KNOW which teams are the best or more deserving.  We might have a really high understanding, but until the games are played we don't know for sure.  And just because a team or conference has recently struggled in the playoffs, that doesn't guarantee this season's representative will also be weak.  Many here might not remember, but there was a time not too long ago where the WIAC was considered a likely one & done conference.   It also hasn't been too long since the entire 16 team field was a popularity contest with no defined path to the playoffs.

Things change in time.   Maybe this is the year someone else steps up.  Maybe not.

Bravo, sir.

[K-Mack]

Skimming through the last 10 pages (since Saturday's games ended). Some favorites/karma given out:

At any rate...many teams will enter...only seven will leave...The POOL "C" ZONE!

Tagline keeper.

feelin' good!  Rowan's in Pool C--  right!!!(for Keith)

!!!

Re: Ypsi and Wally on earlier release of RROs, you guys hit the major teams. It is sort of arbitrary where the line is drawn, but it's also drawn pretty far from the end of the playoff field, meaning any team with a stone-cold case to get in should be in the discussion for other reasons as well (overall record, SoS, common opponents, etc.).

Also I think this is a good place for subjectivity. Brad said that on the calls, the national committee looks at the regional committee's top 10s and considers teams that might have been just outside the RR top 10. So the Willamette, IWU and DelVals of the world may get considered, although it's circumstantial evidence rather than something iron-clad the committee can point to.

ORAR

Another thing is that if C-M or Wheaton had gone, or maybe even OWU, not sure any of us are having this discussion to this degree. The Bridgewater State case is peculiar.

Something just occurred to me. That means OWU was the North team on the board (apologies if this has been discussed already), and Waynesburg was probably the team on the board in the South. So the West team (C-M?) is eliminated on overall record, and then Bridgewater had the best resume of the three 9-1 teams. That makes sense.

MORE TO COME ...

[K-Mack]

With all its flaws I still like d3's better.

+1

One thing that I see people gravitating to over and over is a focus on who somebody lost to.  I'm much more keen on focusing in on who teams beat.  If you beat a good team (or two!) somewhere along the line and you're being compared to a team that did not, you're going places in my breakdown. 

If I've got four teams in front of me and all of them have zero quality wins, then I'll get down to nitpicking what loss is "better" than another.  Like Mike Singletary before me, I want winners.   

+1

Agreed, smed. The SOS numbers count for something, but some qualitative judgement has to come into play here.  If anyone really wants to argue that Wabash, with losses to Oberlin and Allegheny, deserves to come to the board before Heidelberg, then I have no faith at all in the Pool C process.

+1

So you think with the RRO win today for LC that we should hear their name called tomorrow? Even if PLU gets in? Btw this is the first year i've followed D3 football, and having people on here like Wally have really helped me to get hooked and make me a life-long d3 fan. Thanks for all you have done!

Score one for the boards. And Wally.

I love you Wally!

Lol.

Wheaton has never lost a first round playoff game in 8 appearances... that will come into play

That's neat, but it will in no way, shape, form, or fashion have anything to do with 2012 championship tournament selection.

Handling the light work. Nice!

I think Keith said it in here or on Twitter or maybe in a different forum on the site, but this is probably the most challenging Pool C that the committee has had to deal with in the AQ era.

Said it somewhere, and it's not even all that close. There was (02?) where Week 11 was crazy, and ('04/5?) when 9-1 Cortland State and 9-1 Franklin got left out, and ('09?) when there were nine one-loss teams for six spots.

Common denominator there is that there were too many one-loss teams who were a play or a day away from being unbeaten, and had wins over good teams, etc ... This is the first year we had to consider six to eight two-loss teams, alongside three 9-1 teams with shaky resumes for the final four Pool C spots.

No matter what the committee did, some people were going to be unhappy. The right 7th team IMO was probably C-M (but I'm biased subjectively because of the way the Bethel game ended), and I would have loved to see Platteville against some of the teams that got in. Man we could actually have a nice eight-team NIT with UW-P, C-M, Wheaton, Wabash hosting OWU, Waynesburg, Salve Regina and Muhlenberg (or whatever) ... Willamette too.

Could you imagine if C-M had gotten in. Even though Horan was not allowed to participate in the Pool C part of the call, somebody would have been lobbing accusations.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Keith, to clarify, I brought the RR dates up to point out that opponents of those teams were hurt by them not being ranked (which they would have been if the rankings began earlier, like in previous years).  Once QB Gallik went down on a freak accident (he wasn't even touched, but landed wrong with 29 seconds remaining in the Wheaton game), and RB T J Stinde's attempted comeback was thwarted by injury, added to all the other injury losses, IWU was only a shadow of the former team and went from 6-0 to 6-4.  They were not even remotely close to selection by the end, but NCC, Elmhurst, and Wheaton all having another RRO win might have affected seeding (and selection, in Wheaton's case).  Likewise, UWW would have been ranked if rankings began the same time as previously, since the UWSP debacle was still in the future.  THEY eventually had no chance of selection, but it might have affected their opponents.

[K-Mack]

Keith, to clarify, I brought the RR dates up to point out that opponents of those teams were hurt by them not being ranked (which they would have been if the rankings began earlier, like in previous years).  Once QB Gallik went down on a freak accident (he wasn't even touched, but landed wrong with 29 seconds remaining in the Wheaton game), and RB T J Stinde's attempted comeback was thwarted by injury, added to all the other injury losses, IWU was only a shadow of the former team and went from 6-0 to 6-4.  They were not even remotely close to selection by the end, but NCC, Elmhurst, and Wheaton all having another RRO win might have affected seeding (and selection, in Wheaton's case).  Likewise, UWW would have been ranked if rankings began the same time as previously, since the UWSP debacle was still in the future.  THEY eventually had no chance of selection, but it might have affected their opponents.

I thought that was a very good point when you made it the first time, and I still do.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Keith, to clarify, I brought the RR dates up to point out that opponents of those teams were hurt by them not being ranked (which they would have been if the rankings began earlier, like in previous years).  Once QB Gallik went down on a freak accident (he wasn't even touched, but landed wrong with 29 seconds remaining in the Wheaton game), and RB T J Stinde's attempted comeback was thwarted by injury, added to all the other injury losses, IWU was only a shadow of the former team and went from 6-0 to 6-4.  They were not even remotely close to selection by the end, but NCC, Elmhurst, and Wheaton all having another RRO win might have affected seeding (and selection, in Wheaton's case).  Likewise, UWW would have been ranked if rankings began the same time as previously, since the UWSP debacle was still in the future.  THEY eventually had no chance of selection, but it might have affected their opponents.

I thought that was a very good point when you made it the first time, and I still do.

OK, I wasn't trying to belabor the point, but thought you thought I was whining on behalf of IWU (and UWW, etc.)!

[wally_wabash]

Another thing is that if C-M or Wheaton had gone, or maybe even OWU, not sure any of us are having this discussion to this degree. The Bridgewater State case is peculiar.

Something just occurred to me. That means OWU was the North team on the board (apologies if this has been discussed already), and Waynesburg was probably the team on the board in the South. So the West team (C-M?) is eliminated on overall record, and then Bridgewater had the best resume of the three 9-1 teams. That makes sense.

I get why Bridgewater State was picked if they were on the board with OWU, C-M, and Waynesburg.  That's probably the right pick per the criteria (even if we don't believe that BSU was the "best" team available in that spot).  The thing that I don't get is why they jumped Lycoming on the East's list between Wednesday's rankings and Sunday night.  The answer is obviously the SOS shift (Lyco took a big hit from their last game), but in my view the SOS change wasn't big enough to move an idle team up and over a team that won their week 11 game 38-0.  That's the curious part to me.  I really try not to fuel the conspiracy stuff, but is it possible that somebody on the East RAC crunched some numbers and realized that BSU had better selection criteria than Lycoming and shuffled accordingly?  That's not too far out there.  I don't know. 

[K-Mack]

Also, please educate yourself in general. Thanks.

Burn of epic proportions.

Is there even one Wittenberg fan on these boards? Yelling at a bunch of Wabash fans about how much they like Wittenberg is comedy.

Despite my previous slap at AO, I thought he and USee and Smed all had good points about scheduling. Bridgewater State and other NEFC teams could play more LL, E8, Centennial and NJAC teams, or at least top teams in New England, but as Smed mentioned, state schools schedule state schools, sometimes out of necessity, and there have to be teams who want to play Bridgewater State as well. Not having been a power in recent seasons (though they kind of were in the 90s), why would, say, a Hobart take a game against them rather than preserve its traditional games with "like institutions" Dickinson and Carnegie Mellon. We do have to ask who is available for BSC to schedule to improve said sked.

By the way, it is Bridgewater State. There is a Bridgewater already, from the ODAC, and lazy typing is outlawed in this case. BSC is acceptable.

(iron fist)

Also "ensure" but then I'm just being a grammar jerk.

[smedindy]

Another thing is that if C-M or Wheaton had gone, or maybe even OWU, not sure any of us are having this discussion to this degree. The Bridgewater State case is peculiar.

Something just occurred to me. That means OWU was the North team on the board (apologies if this has been discussed already), and Waynesburg was probably the team on the board in the South. So the West team (C-M?) is eliminated on overall record, and then Bridgewater had the best resume of the three 9-1 teams. That makes sense.

I get why Bridgewater State was picked if they were on the board with OWU, C-M, and Waynesburg.  That's probably the right pick per the criteria (even if we don't believe that BSU was the "best" team available in that spot).  The thing that I don't get is why they jumped Lycoming on the East's list between Wednesday's rankings and Sunday night.  The answer is obviously the SOS shift (Lyco took a big hit from their last game), but in my view the SOS change wasn't big enough to move an idle team up and over a team that won their week 11 game 38-0.  That's the curious part to me.  I really try not to fuel the conspiracy stuff, but is it possible that somebody on the East RAC crunched some numbers and realized that BSU had better selection criteria than Lycoming and shuffled accordingly?  That's not too far out there.  I don't know.

Wasn't it last year where we speculated that the East did the same thing and jumped St. John Fisher up so they'd match up favorably against CWRU and others when it came to "C" selections? I recall that being tossed around a bit, perhaps.

[pg04]

Also, please educate yourself in general. Thanks.

Burn of epic proportions.

Well now it just seems mean  .

[smedindy]

Found it - last year the last published RRs had St. John Fisher behind Endicott in the East.

SJF was selected and Endicott was not.

Hmmmm.....

(Side Note: Everytime I type "Endicott" I hear the Kid Creole song in my head...)

[AO]

Let me try to replicate the committee call:

Ok, so we're down to Concordia and Bridgewater State, Concordia holds a sizeable advantage in SOS which according to our precedent is easily enough to overcome the difference between 9-1 and 8-2.  However, since Bridgewater State has beaten Endicott who was regionally ranked we will give them the nod as Concordia's win over St. Olaf while being far more impressive doesn't count as St. Olaf lost too early in the season in a much tougher region making it tough for them to get in the region rankings.

[wartknight]

Found it - last year the last published RRs had St. John Fisher behind Endicott in the East.

SJF was selected and Endicott was not.

Hmmmm.....

(Side Note: Everytime I type "Endicott" I hear the Kid Creole song in my head...)

Conspiracy Theory

[K-Mack]

Another thing is that if C-M or Wheaton had gone, or maybe even OWU, not sure any of us are having this discussion to this degree. The Bridgewater State case is peculiar.

Something just occurred to me. That means OWU was the North team on the board (apologies if this has been discussed already), and Waynesburg was probably the team on the board in the South. So the West team (C-M?) is eliminated on overall record, and then Bridgewater had the best resume of the three 9-1 teams. That makes sense.

I get why Bridgewater State was picked if they were on the board with OWU, C-M, and Waynesburg.  That's probably the right pick per the criteria (even if we don't believe that BSU was the "best" team available in that spot).  The thing that I don't get is why they jumped Lycoming on the East's list between Wednesday's rankings and Sunday night.  The answer is obviously the SOS shift (Lyco took a big hit from their last game), but in my view the SOS change wasn't big enough to move an idle team up and over a team that won their week 11 game 38-0.  That's the curious part to me.  I really try not to fuel the conspiracy stuff, but is it possible that somebody on the East RAC crunched some numbers and realized that BSU had better selection criteria than Lycoming and shuffled accordingly?  That's not too far out there.  I don't know.

I'm not a big conspiracy guy either, but I wouldn't put it beyond a regional committee or conference coaches to do whatever is within the rules to stack the deck in their favor. They clearly have something to gain, and no motive to not do it because they aren't doing anything illegal, although it might be unfair to someone else down the line.

Which leads me to what I think the difference between BSC and Lyco is.

Delaware Valley, in our projections, was the 10th regionally ranked team, so Lyco had a win vs. RRO and looked good. In the actual rankings though, Salve/Fram/BSC brought up the rear in Week 1, Fram/BSC/Endicott in Week 2, and DV couldn't have moved in after losing to Widener.

So maybe there was a reshuffling by the national committee of the RAC's rankings, or maybe the SoS did it, but BSC was 9-1 with a .520 and a win over Endicott and loss to Framingham State, while Lyco has a .494 and loss to Widener.

Not sure how that moved Lyco 7th/BSC 9th around, although Salve (6) had to drop behind Framingham (8) with the h2h result from the NEFC title game.

It is coincidental that with all the MAC/NEFC interrelation, the Bears go to Widener in Round 1.