Pool C -- 2012

[hazzben]

Wouldnt PLu have a better shot than UWW if PLu wins out, their 2 loses are against a #3 and #8(assuming linfield and CLU win out also)

You could certainly make that argument. I wouldn't disagree with it. I'm not sure I'd pick PLU to beat UWW, but in terms of regional ranking and playoff criteria, they have better numbers in about every aspect. And PLU's SOS numbers are through the roof.

[smedindy]

Thinking that Linfield and CLU will be regionally ranked and the overall SOS of PLU should put them on the board ahead of UW-W unless the committee disregards the Buff State result - which they shouldn't if precedence holds.

[Pat Coleman]

Problem is there is precedent for everything, and we never know which year's precedent they are going to choose.

[hazzben]

Problem is there is precedent for everything, and we never know which year's precedent they are going to choose.

So true! If there's one precedent that should trump all, it's that the committee has done and will do some surprising and unexpected stuff from time to time.

[desertcat1]

Problem is there is precedent for everything, and we never know which year's precedent they are going to choose.

So true! If there's one precedent that should trump all, it's that the committee has done and will do some surprising and unexpected stuff from time to time.

That is a true story ... "THEY HAVE"  just win baby  , and it will take care of it's self..  We have been there for sure . .
Go Cats
Go BIG D

[Hawks88]

I wish that we had regional rankings after week #8.

I think that 2-loss Louisiana College (Losses to UMHB and Wesley and needing a win over HSU) needs some consideration in that group of strong Pool C teams. Right now, I think that they are the first team at the table from the South Region, after Wesley comes off as Pool B (and if Wesley beats Huntingdon this weekend.)

Right now, I have LC behind Huntingdon, F&M, and Millsaps in the Pool C pecking order in the South.  Let's play the futures game with these teams...

Huntingdon - Will either beat Wesley and be the Pool B (which sets off some bad dominoes for LC...that would push Wesley into Pool C with 2 losses and the Wolverines would HAVE to be in front of LC because they beat LC) or they will lose to Wesley and fall back behind LC in the pecking order.

F&M - Will either beat JHU and be in Pool A or lose and be behind LC with 2-losses.  Of course, if they do beat JHU, that pushes JHU into Pool C, most likely in front of LC. 

Millsaps - If Millsaps gets to 9-1, they become an interesting case.  Is their win% advantage enough to keep them in front of Huntingdon who has a h2h win and a heavy SOS advantage over Millsaps?  If not, then Millsaps, as distasteful as that might be to LC fans, are probably in front of LC.  If Millsaps gets tagged behind Huntingdon, then they probably go behind LC as well.  Just depends on how that h2h result manifests itself in the regional rankings. 

LC's biggest problem is that they don't and won't have a win against a regionally ranked opponent.  There will be 2-loss teams that do.  LC's biggest reason for optimism is that if Wesley beats Huntingdon and JHU beats F&M and Millsaps loses either at Trinity or vs. B-SC, then LC may very well be at the top of the South region's at-large list and getting to the table is half the battle.  Doesn't seem likely that LC would get passed over 7 times.  But there's also the matter of week 11 vs. Hardin Simmons which is definitely not a gimme for LC. 

By comparison, UWW needs a lot more help to get into the serious conversation because the West isn't blowing itself up the same way the South is.  And right now LC is a better at-large candidate than UWW is.  The Warhawks really do need a lot of help in the next 18 days.

Wally, I'm not so sure a two loss Huntingdon would be behind a two loss Louisiana College. HC would have the stronger SOS and would likely have wins over regionally ranked opponents(Millsaps, Hampden-Sydney(?), Wesley or Adrian). Whether or not we manage to beat Wesley, we still have the Adrian game to contend with week 11, who I imagine will be regionally ranked if they go ahead and win their conference.

[Pat Coleman]

Adrian doesn't look that good for a regional ranking right now.

[Hawks88]

Adrian doesn't look that good for a regional ranking right now.

I guess you're right. I just looked at their SOS. Kinda way down there aren't they?

[d-train]

Thinking that Linfield and CLU will be regionally ranked and the overall SOS of PLU should put them on the board ahead of UW-W...

I hope you are right (of course).  PLU's losses so far were against 2 pretty darn good teams that deserve to be highly ranked.  But on the flip side, the Lutes are 0-2 against them.  Their best wins are over Willamette, Redlands, and (hopefullly) Whitworth.  Also, the Lutes play only 9 games and finish at Menlo (NAIA).  So at this point, a 6-2 D-3 record is the best possible outcome where other two-loss Pool C's may have as many as 8 D-3 wins. 

[hazzben]

Thinking that Linfield and CLU will be regionally ranked and the overall SOS of PLU should put them on the board ahead of UW-W...

I hope you are right (of course).  PLU's losses so far were against 2 pretty darn good teams that deserve to be highly ranked.  But on the flip side, the Lutes are 0-2 against them.  Their best wins are over Willamette, Redlands, and (hopefullly) Whitworth.  Also, the Lutes play only 9 games and finish at Menlo (NAIA).  So at this point, a 6-2 D-3 record is the best possible outcome where other two-loss Pool C's may have as many as 8 D-3 wins. 

That's what will probably hurt you.

[Ralph Turner]

I wish that we had regional rankings after week #8.

I think that 2-loss Louisiana College (Losses to UMHB and Wesley and needing a win over HSU) needs some consideration in that group of strong Pool C teams. Right now, I think that they are the first team at the table from the South Region, after Wesley comes off as Pool B (and if Wesley beats Huntingdon this weekend.)

Right now, I have LC behind Huntingdon, F&M, and Millsaps in the Pool C pecking order in the South.  Let's play the futures game with these teams...

Huntingdon - Will either beat Wesley and be the Pool B (which sets off some bad dominoes for LC...that would push Wesley into Pool C with 2 losses and the Wolverines would HAVE to be in front of LC because they beat LC) or they will lose to Wesley and fall back behind LC in the pecking order.

F&M - Will either beat JHU and be in Pool A or lose and be behind LC with 2-losses.  Of course, if they do beat JHU, that pushes JHU into Pool C, most likely in front of LC. 

Millsaps - If Millsaps gets to 9-1, they become an interesting case.  Is their win% advantage enough to keep them in front of Huntingdon who has a h2h win and a heavy SOS advantage over Millsaps?  If not, then Millsaps, as distasteful as that might be to LC fans, are probably in front of LC.  If Millsaps gets tagged behind Huntingdon, then they probably go behind LC as well.  Just depends on how that h2h result manifests itself in the regional rankings. 

LC's biggest problem is that they don't and won't have a win against a regionally ranked opponent.  There will be 2-loss teams that do.  LC's biggest reason for optimism is that if Wesley beats Huntingdon and JHU beats F&M and Millsaps loses either at Trinity or vs. B-SC, then LC may very well be at the top of the South region's at-large list and getting to the table is half the battle.  Doesn't seem likely that LC would get passed over 7 times.  But there's also the matter of week 11 vs. Hardin Simmons which is definitely not a gimme for LC. 

By comparison, UWW needs a lot more help to get into the serious conversation because the West isn't blowing itself up the same way the South is.  And right now LC is a better at-large candidate than UWW is.  The Warhawks really do need a lot of help in the next 18 days.

Yes.  I do think that Wesley and JHU win and Millsaps fades.

[wally_wabash]

Adrian doesn't look that good for a regional ranking right now.

I guess you're right. I just looked at their SOS. Kinda way down there aren't they?

Adrian is an interesting case.  Doing a quick and dirty look at the north region, Adrian is going to be behind the four remaining undefeateds (UMU, OWU, H'berg, Concordia-Chi.).  H'berg will lose before the rankings come out, but will almost certainly still be in front of Adrian.  Adrian also has a CCIW problem...they lost to Carthage and Carthage is losing to all of the teams at the top of the CCIW.  So they'll also be behind North Central and IWU who have a better result against the common opponent.  They'll also be behind Elmhurst.  So that's seven teams so far.  Wabash would rank ahead of Adrian today as well.  That's 8.  So we've got two spots left and these are the teams left to fill those spots:
Adrian
Franklin
Baldwin-Wallace
Wittenberg
Wheaton

Of these five teams jockeying for two spots, Franklin has the lowest SOS and zero quality wins and no common opponents (yet..B-W's purple whoopin' is coming...Adrian beat Defiance who is coming up soon for Franklin).  Adrian's SOS is basically the same as Franklin's, and they also don't have quality wins or common opponents (yet).  Wittenberg has the best SOS among this group but has zero quality wins (a common theme).  Adrian probably is ahead of Wheaton at this point and really should be if they beat Albion.  Today, I'd probably have Adrian sitting 11th or 12th in the region depending on how people choose to look at Franklin. 

The good news for Huntingdon is that we've got two weeks of games that will affect these rankings.  IWU could suffer a loss on Saturday that takes them out of these rankings (the Carthage thing is still sticky though).  B-W has a loss coming on 11/3.  Wabash has a dangerous game on Saturday.  Wittenberg isn't going to lose, but their SOS is going to plummet.  There's an outside shot that Adrian, with a pair of wins, could sneak into the regional rankings before the week 11 game with Huntingdon.  Definitely not a slam dunk though. 

[Ralph Turner]

Adrian has always been my #10 in the North Region.

[tigerguy]

Just out of curiousity, what is the highest ranked team to not make the playoffs? In the d3football.com poll era, that is.

[SUADC]

Just out of curiousity, what is the highest ranked team to not make the playoffs? In the d3football.com poll era, that is.

I know Salisbury was #17 in 2008. I believe they have the top 25 going back to 2003, I believe you would look at week 11 and then look at the playoff bracket to see what team.