Pool C -- 2012

[wally_wabash]

Just out of curiousity, what is the highest ranked team to not make the playoffs? In the d3football.com poll era, that is.

UMHB in 2003...ranked 11th and didn't get in to the field.  ONU in 2009 was ranked 13th and didn't get invited. 

[roocru]

Just out of curiousity, what is the highest ranked team to not make the playoffs? In the d3football.com poll era, that is.

UMHB in 2003...ranked 11th and didn't get in to the field.  ONU in 2009 was ranked 13th and didn't get invited.

That year was a tough one (my son's junior year)!  However, the next year the Cru lost to Linfield in the Stagg Bowl!

[Bill McCabe]

I still have heartburn over that slight. 

[wally_wabash]

Thought it would be fun to see how my Pool C selections change given ATN's mock regional rankings.  Let's check it out...the selections, in order, using ATN's regional rankings:

Bethel - 6-1, .658 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO
Huntingdon - 4-1, .605 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO
Wabash - 4-1, .584 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO
Elmhurst - 6-1, .590 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO
**Heidelberg - 7-0, .371 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO
Rowan - 5-1, .568 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO
Millsaps - 5-1, .545 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO

With Wittenberg, RPI, and PLU left on the table. 

Here's what I projected Saturday night:

Bethel
Huntingdon
Willamette
Heidelberg
Wabash
Rowan
Elmhurst

Six out of seven isn't too bad.  Millsaps in, Willamette out is the only difference in the final seven.  Explained by me subjectively keeping 1-loss Willamette ahead of 2-loss PLU despite the H2H result, while ATN put PLU in front of Willamette.  Some other subtle differences in the order of selections stem from things like Wheaton and CMU being regionally ranked and the treatment of Heidelberg's SOS in the mock up.  Good stuff. 

**BTW, this is where it gets really hard because Heidelberg is undefeated but the SOS is awful.  This is also where I either stick with my previous caveat of excluding a third MIAC team or go with the rankings.  I'll do both here, but first I'll exclude Concordia-Moorhead so that we get an apples to apples comparison. 

Now, let's not exclude Concordia-Moorhead this time.  Here's what I'd get:

Bethel - 6-1, .658 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO
Huntingdon - 4-1, .605 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO
Wabash - 4-1, .584 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO
Elmhurst - 6-1, .590 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO
Concordia-Moorhead - 5-1, .601 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO
Heidelberg - 7-0, .371 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO
Rowan - 5-1, .568 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO

Millsaps, Wittenberg, and PLU left on the table here. 

[hazzben]

Keep up the great analysis Wally. This will all shift, obscure and clarify for these teams in the weeks ahead, but this gives us a great snapshot of where we sit right now. +k

[wally_wabash]

Just a heads up that I will probably hold off on projecting the field until the official regional rankings get released on Wednesday. 

The first rankings are usually pretty interesting.  Anxious to see what we get on Wednesday. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

I would entertain a debate about Whitewater being placed in front of IC, but there really isn't a good, criteria-based reason to have them any higher than that.  And that's just in the West. 

....

There is the matter of Buffalo State being out of region.  It would be an absolute shame if the committee bent that rule in a way that unduly benefits Whitewater.  CWRU was very obviously kept out of last year's tournament because they lost an out of region game.  Wabash was kept out in 2010 because they lost an out of region game.  To do a 180 on that this year smacks of favoritism and I really, really hope that doesn't happen.  If in 22 days Whitewater has one of the best seven at-large résumés, then awesome.  But don't let it be because they choose to ignore a D3 result.  The idea of regionality is absurd in the current climate of "administrative regions".  Whitewater lost, at home, to a team that's going to finish in the bottom half of the E8.  The E8 isn't a bad league, but you just can't lose that game, plus another one, and expect to get in without an abundance of quality wins, which Whitewater does not have.  [/end rant]

+K.  Well said.  Of course it'll be hard to leave the three-time defending champs out at 8-2, but barring an awful lot of carnage around the nation, it will be even more absurd to include a team with UWW's 2012 resume over the other Pool C candidates you've named above.

[02 Warhawk]

I would entertain a debate about Whitewater being placed in front of IC, but there really isn't a good, criteria-based reason to have them any higher than that.  And that's just in the West. 

....

There is the matter of Buffalo State being out of region.  It would be an absolute shame if the committee bent that rule in a way that unduly benefits Whitewater.  CWRU was very obviously kept out of last year's tournament because they lost an out of region game.  Wabash was kept out in 2010 because they lost an out of region game.  To do a 180 on that this year smacks of favoritism and I really, really hope that doesn't happen.  If in 22 days Whitewater has one of the best seven at-large résumés, then awesome.  But don't let it be because they choose to ignore a D3 result.  The idea of regionality is absurd in the current climate of "administrative regions".  Whitewater lost, at home, to a team that's going to finish in the bottom half of the E8.  The E8 isn't a bad league, but you just can't lose that game, plus another one, and expect to get in without an abundance of quality wins, which Whitewater does not have.  [/end rant]

+K.  Well said.  Of course it'll be hard to leave the three-time defending champs out at 8-2, but barring an awful lot of carnage around the nation, it will be even more absurd to include a team with UWW's 2012 resume over the other Pool C candidates you've named above.

As much as I want to see UWW get a bid, they really have no business getting one. It shouldn't matter what they did in previous years.

I have no problems with the above teams getting in before Whitewater

[ExTartanPlayer]

I would entertain a debate about Whitewater being placed in front of IC, but there really isn't a good, criteria-based reason to have them any higher than that.  And that's just in the West. 

....

There is the matter of Buffalo State being out of region.  It would be an absolute shame if the committee bent that rule in a way that unduly benefits Whitewater.  CWRU was very obviously kept out of last year's tournament because they lost an out of region game.  Wabash was kept out in 2010 because they lost an out of region game.  To do a 180 on that this year smacks of favoritism and I really, really hope that doesn't happen.  If in 22 days Whitewater has one of the best seven at-large résumés, then awesome.  But don't let it be because they choose to ignore a D3 result.  The idea of regionality is absurd in the current climate of "administrative regions".  Whitewater lost, at home, to a team that's going to finish in the bottom half of the E8.  The E8 isn't a bad league, but you just can't lose that game, plus another one, and expect to get in without an abundance of quality wins, which Whitewater does not have.  [/end rant]

+K.  Well said.  Of course it'll be hard to leave the three-time defending champs out at 8-2, but barring an awful lot of carnage around the nation, it will be even more absurd to include a team with UWW's 2012 resume over the other Pool C candidates you've named above.

As much as I want to see UWW get a bid, they really have no business getting one. It shouldn't matter what they did in previous years.

I have no problems with the above teams getting in before Whitewater

I will admit that it's hard - really hard - to just ignore past years' results because a single season IS kind of a small sample size.  Think about Division I (FBS) - if, say, Rutgers and Notre Dame both finish undefeated, the SEC champion has one loss, and the Big 12 champion has one loss, does anyone think the title game will actually be Rutgers vs. Notre Dame? 

The same kind of applies in Division III - there just isn't enough inter-regional play to possibly KNOW (based on one season's data alone) which conferences are the strongest.  So past knowledge does have to come into play in some cases.  I know this sounds like selective judgement, and it kind of is, but what are ya gonna do?

As we're all aware, if any other WIAC team went 8-2 with an out-of-region loss to a 4-6ish team, this wouldn't even be a conversation.  So I guess that's why I'm okay with dismissing past years' results in this case.

[smedindy]

At least in D-3, we have the best solution for teams wanting to avoid this:

Win Your League (or Win Your Games in Pool "B")

[bleedpurple]

At least in D-3, we have the best solution for teams wanting to avoid this:

Win Your League (or Win Your Games in Pool "B")

That's how I have always felt. For those who get in with a pool c, they should be grateful for the second chance.  For those who don't get the second chance, begin doing everything you can to not need one next year! 

[desertcat1]

At least in D-3, we have the best solution for teams wanting to avoid this:

Win Your League (or Win Your Games in Pool "B")

That's how I have always felt. For those who get in with a pool c, they should be grateful for the second chance.  For those who don't get the second chance, begin doing everything you can to not need one next year! 

Having been there that is why we said "LEAVE NO DOUBT"  IT WORKS TOO.

Go Cats
Go Big D

[smedindy]

With the results thus far, the "B" contingent not named Wesley is pretty much wishing and hoping that there's more carnage everywhere.

And don't look now, but the NCAC is on it's way to a total cluster-flop with the potential of four teams tying for the league title and three of those teams being 9-1. Dios mio!

[K-Mack]

Oops.   Auto spell check on my smart phone.

"UW-Wastewater"!

I spewed my soft drink onto the keyboard when I read this.

That goes into the Hall of Fame of team names (allegedly) butchered by "auto spell check".

That goes right up there with "Horrid Pain" for Howard Payne and "Hardened Sinners" for the Baptist univeristy Hardin-Simmons.

Nice.

I definitely thought HS did that on purpose at first.

[K-Mack]

If Concordia beats UST, you have Cobbers with 1 loss and the Pool A. UST and Bethel with 1 loss and Pool C candidates.

I think MIAC could be a three-bid league this way. UST on the board before Bethel, in this case, most likely.