Pool C -- 2012

[K-Mack]

Wouldnt PLu have a better shot than UWW if PLu wins out, their 2 loses are against a #3 and #8(assuming linfield and CLU win out also)

I know this is an old question, but PLU definitely has a shot ... but don't forget to consider who a team beat, not just how many and who its losses are too.

This is the main issue right now for LC and PLU. Beating Willamette could help PLU if they are regionally ranked at some point.

[K-Mack]

I wish that we had regional rankings after week #8.

I think that 2-loss Louisiana College (Losses to UMHB and Wesley and needing a win over HSU) needs some consideration in that group of strong Pool C teams. Right now, I think that they are the first team at the table from the South Region, after Wesley comes off as Pool B (and if Wesley beats Huntingdon this weekend.)

Right now, I have LC behind Huntingdon, F&M, and Millsaps in the Pool C pecking order in the South.  Let's play the futures game with these teams...

Huntingdon - Will either beat Wesley and be the Pool B (which sets off some bad dominoes for LC...that would push Wesley into Pool C with 2 losses and the Wolverines would HAVE to be in front of LC because they beat LC) or they will lose to Wesley and fall back behind LC in the pecking order.

F&M - Will either beat JHU and be in Pool A or lose and be behind LC with 2-losses.  Of course, if they do beat JHU, that pushes JHU into Pool C, most likely in front of LC. 

Millsaps - If Millsaps gets to 9-1, they become an interesting case.  Is their win% advantage enough to keep them in front of Huntingdon who has a h2h win and a heavy SOS advantage over Millsaps?  If not, then Millsaps, as distasteful as that might be to LC fans, are probably in front of LC.  If Millsaps gets tagged behind Huntingdon, then they probably go behind LC as well.  Just depends on how that h2h result manifests itself in the regional rankings. 

LC's biggest problem is that they don't and won't have a win against a regionally ranked opponent.  There will be 2-loss teams that do.  LC's biggest reason for optimism is that if Wesley beats Huntingdon and JHU beats F&M and Millsaps loses either at Trinity or vs. B-SC, then LC may very well be at the top of the South region's at-large list and getting to the table is half the battle.  Doesn't seem likely that LC would get passed over 7 times.  But there's also the matter of week 11 vs. Hardin Simmons which is definitely not a gimme for LC. 

By comparison, UWW needs a lot more help to get into the serious conversation because the West isn't blowing itself up the same way the South is.  And right now LC is a better at-large candidate than UWW is.  The Warhawks really do need a lot of help in the next 18 days.

Wally, I'm not so sure a two loss Huntingdon would be behind a two loss Louisiana College. HC would have the stronger SOS and would likely have wins over regionally ranked opponents(Millsaps, Hampden-Sydney(?), Wesley or Adrian). Whether or not we manage to beat Wesley, we still have the Adrian game to contend with week 11, who I imagine will be regionally ranked if they go ahead and win their conference.

I love that we have multiple fans who can have these discussions now without us needing to lead them. Most everything discussed is spot on, and you guys are mentioning SoS and RROs ... I'm like a proud co-Dad.

[jknezek]

I love that we have multiple fans who can have these discussions now without us needing to lead them. Most everything discussed is spot on, and you guys are mentioning SoS and RROs ... I'm like a proud co-Dad.

Was at the Huntingdon game with Hawks and DGPugh today. Between the three of us we've seen a lot of D3 football in a lot of places and it was really nice to have a good discussion with guys that had a solid grasp on how it all works. Between the site and this board, you can learn a lot in a short time and do it in a good environment. You should be pretty proud.

[wally_wabash]

Relevant to all of that is that everything pretty much came up roses for Louisiana College today.  They won, F&M lost and not to JHU which makes that whole scenario moot, Millsaps lost again so that scenario is dead AND may deprive Huntingdon of their RRO win, and Wesley did not get pushed into Pool C.  The Wildcats may have just surged to the top of the South's at-large list in one Saturday. 

[smedindy]

In other words, the South is the cannibalistic region this year.

[hazzben]

If Concordia beats UST, you have Cobbers with 1 loss and the Pool A. UST and Bethel with 1 loss and Pool C candidates.

I think MIAC could be a three-bid league this way. UST on the board before Bethel, in this case, most likely.

This could happen. UST is the better team, but they are brutally beaten up right now. They've had as many as 11 starters out in one game over the last few weeks. 4-6 may be out for the season, and numerous regulars didn't play today in a big game against Augsburg. If they're not full strength Concordia could definitely make a run at them.

[K-Mack]

Just out of curiousity, what is the highest ranked team to not make the playoffs? In the d3football.com poll era, that is.

http://www.d3football.com/top25/previous

http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/index

I'm thinking a CCIW, MIAC, WIAC or OAC two-loss team in the past year or two. Rings a bell, but can't think of who. Look at the playoff brackets, then the Week 11 top 25 in the above links to find a match.

Just out of curiousity, what is the highest ranked team to not make the playoffs? In the d3football.com poll era, that is.

UMHB in 2003...ranked 11th and didn't get in to the field.  ONU in 2009 was ranked 13th and didn't get invited.

Nevermind, I see this got addressed. What about the years Linfield and Whitworth got left out ('01 predates the poll, and '08 Whitworth had two losses, so nevermind again).

[K-Mack]

Relevant to all of that is that everything pretty much came up roses for Louisiana College today.  They won, F&M lost and not to JHU which makes that whole scenario moot, Millsaps lost again so that scenario is dead AND may deprive Huntingdon of their RRO win, and Wesley did not get pushed into Pool C.  The Wildcats may have just surged to the top of the South's at-large list in one Saturday.

Looks pretty good for them. I was hoping to find wally's breakdown here so I could answer a similar question about Willamette (who might also be in good shape), but I guess I have to do my own work again. Darnit!

[jknezek]

Relevant to all of that is that everything pretty much came up roses for Louisiana College today.  They won, F&M lost and not to JHU which makes that whole scenario moot, Millsaps lost again so that scenario is dead AND may deprive Huntingdon of their RRO win, and Wesley did not get pushed into Pool C.  The Wildcats may have just surged to the top of the South's at-large list in one Saturday.

Agree with this completely. And for once, it actually ties out with who I think would win all those games. La Col is probably the best of those teams, though I think Huntingdon would give them a run for their money. Plus it's hard to argue against La Col at the top of the board considering their two losses are to what are probably the two best teams in the South. They were right there against Wesley, not so much UMHB. La Col's biggest problem is a lack of quality wins.

[K-Mack]

Relevant to all of that is that everything pretty much came up roses for Louisiana College today.  They won, F&M lost and not to JHU which makes that whole scenario moot, Millsaps lost again so that scenario is dead AND may deprive Huntingdon of their RRO win, and Wesley did not get pushed into Pool C.  The Wildcats may have just surged to the top of the South's at-large list in one Saturday.

Agree with this completely. And for once, it actually ties out with who I think would win all those games. La Col is probably the best of those teams, though I think Huntingdon would give them a run for their money. Plus it's hard to argue against La Col at the top of the board considering their two losses are to what are probably the two best teams in the South. They were right there against Wesley, not so much UMHB. La Col's biggest problem is a lack of quality wins.

Yep. They are not going to have anything to compare with a team that has two losses but a really key victory or three, like say, Salisbury. Should have a good SoS though.

I wonder if LC had held on against Wesley and the shoe was on the other foot, the Wolverines with the two losses, how different it would all be. First of all Pool B would still be open, LC would be top 10-15 ranked and Wesley's close loss to UMHB ....

Ah, nevermind. Hypotheticals can be confusing.

[wally_wabash]

Relevant to all of that is that everything pretty much came up roses for Louisiana College today.  They won, F&M lost and not to JHU which makes that whole scenario moot, Millsaps lost again so that scenario is dead AND may deprive Huntingdon of their RRO win, and Wesley did not get pushed into Pool C.  The Wildcats may have just surged to the top of the South's at-large list in one Saturday.

Looks pretty good for them. I was hoping to find wally's breakdown here so I could answer a similar question about Willamette (who might also be in good shape), but I guess I have to do my own work again. Darnit!

Ballparking it right now, but Willamette probably has a tougher road to the tournament than LC does.  In the West right now, Willamette is probably sitting behind 1-loss Bethel and Concordia-Moorhead, and 2-loss PLU (which you guys had fleshed out already in your mock rankings).  Willamette would definitely be ahead of Whitworth at this point, and then you have the tricky situation of what to do with 1-loss Illinois College.  Is the 1-loss and zero wins over RRO and a bad SOS better than Willamette's two losses and monster SOS?  That's hard to say for sure.  We'll have an idea of how those things are being factored when the rankings come out on Wednesday.  Right now, I think that SOS advantage is so overwhelming that they would be ahead of IC in the pecking order. 

Anyway, all of that is to say that the South has butchered itself to the point where a 2-loss team with zero wins over RRO is probably the best at-large candidate while the West hasn't.  If the pick were LC or Willamette, Willamette might be a better choice than LC.  But Willamette, right now at least, probably wouldn't see the table whereas LC would be there from the beginning.  That's an interesting situation...or frustrating depending on your point of view.   

[smedindy]

Depending on the other regions, it's plausible that no team from the South gets a "C".

[K-Mack]

Thought it would be fun to see how my Pool C selections change given ATN's mock regional rankings.  Let's check it out...the selections, in order, using ATN's regional rankings:

Bethel - 6-1, .658 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO
Huntingdon - 4-1, .605 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO
Wabash - 4-1, .584 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO
Elmhurst - 6-1, .590 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO
**Heidelberg - 7-0, .371 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO
Rowan - 5-1, .568 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO
Millsaps - 5-1, .545 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO

With Wittenberg, RPI, and PLU left on the table. 

Here's what I projected Saturday night:

Bethel
Huntingdon
Willamette
Heidelberg
Wabash
Rowan
Elmhurst

Six out of seven isn't too bad.  Millsaps in, Willamette out is the only difference in the final seven.  Explained by me subjectively keeping 1-loss Willamette ahead of 2-loss PLU despite the H2H result, while ATN put PLU in front of Willamette.  Some other subtle differences in the order of selections stem from things like Wheaton and CMU being regionally ranked and the treatment of Heidelberg's SOS in the mock up.  Good stuff. 

**BTW, this is where it gets really hard because Heidelberg is undefeated but the SOS is awful.  This is also where I either stick with my previous caveat of excluding a third MIAC team or go with the rankings.  I'll do both here, but first I'll exclude Concordia-Moorhead so that we get an apples to apples comparison. 

Now, let's not exclude Concordia-Moorhead this time.  Here's what I'd get:

Bethel - 6-1, .658 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO
Huntingdon - 4-1, .605 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO
Wabash - 4-1, .584 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO
Elmhurst - 6-1, .590 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO
Concordia-Moorhead - 5-1, .601 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO
Heidelberg - 7-0, .371 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO
Rowan - 5-1, .568 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO

Millsaps, Wittenberg, and PLU left on the table here.

Just starting with this group of teams, and applying what we learned today ... OWU loses to Wabash, and I'm gonna assume Bash gets the NCAC AQ by virtue of something or other.

Heidelberg and Huntingdon lose. Berg and OWU join the Pool C discussion.

I'd have to give the entire field a closer look, but is it safe to assume our Pool C leaders are:
Bethel
C-Moorhead
Heidelberg
Elmhurst
Rowan
Wittenberg and/or OWU

and then the group of two-loss teams? LC, PLU, Willamette, etc. Huntingdon?

Who am I not thinking of?

I realize C-M and UST still play each other, that I didn't go around the board properly, and that there's plenty of time between now and recording of the podcast to actually sort this out.

[smedindy]

As we understand the NCAC tie-breakers (that were last seen in 2010, dug up by Wally and not published), K-Mack, Witt would get the AQ in a three-way or four-way tie. The H2H's don't factor in since OWU and Kenyon didn't play Witt (and Kenyon missed Wabash). Wabash is eliminated because they're the only team that lost to Allegheny (first common opponent). Kenyon has a road loss (OWU and Witt don't) so they're out and Witt has a higher power ranking. It's a mess, really.

Of course, that's conjecture since we don't know what the NCAC is cooking up for sure. A four-way tie at 6-1 is quite plausible.

[wally_wabash]

Just starting with this group of teams, and applying what we learned today ... OWU loses to Wabash, and I'm gonna assume Bash gets the NCAC AQ by virtue of something or other.

Heidelberg and Huntingdon lose. Berg and OWU join the Pool C discussion.

I'd have to give the entire field a closer look, but is it safe to assume our Pool C leaders are:
Bethel
C-Moorhead
Heidelberg
Elmhurst
Rowan
Wittenberg and/or OWU

and then the group of two-loss teams? LC, PLU, Willamette, etc. Huntingdon?

Who am I not thinking of?

I realize C-M and UST still play each other, that I didn't go around the board properly, and that there's plenty of time between now and recording of the podcast to actually sort this out.

That would be what I've got.  Baldwin-Wallace has just the one loss, but I think we're kind of anticipating one more coming.  The other one-loss team sort of lurking around out there is Bridgewater State.  Of Salve Regina and Framingham State, one of them is going to qualify and one is going to be out.  But Bridgewater State can finish 9-1 and have a not-brutal SOS.  It's a longshot for them, but with the way things are going any 1-loss team may have a shot.  And I think we saw a NEFC Pool C team in that same situation a couple of years ago...Curry maybe?). 

In any case, as you can see from the list there, we've got two weeks left to play and not a ton of 1-loss teams left.  High quality two loss teams are very likely to be in play on 11/11.