Pool C -- 2012

[Mugsy]

As far as what's going on here in the North, I think you project North Central as Pool A right now because Elmhurst is going to be a favorite against IWU (can the Titans rebound...sure they can, but would you bank on it...not me).  Thank the heavens for garbage time touchdowns, am I right Cards fans?!  So that throws Wheaton as a serious Pool C player right now because when the rankings come out Wheaton almost HAS to be in front of North Central...identical records, Wheaton has the h2h.  Seems an obvious move to me.  That'll make Wheaton 1-1, Elmhurst, and NCC all 1-1 vs RRO.  I think the relative order here has to be Elmhurst then Wheaton then NCC. 

Quite an obscure scenario. 

Wheaton would miss out of playoffs even though they might be ranked higher than NCC, because NCC has the AQ on point differential.  Wheaton needed to beat NCC by 20 to lead the point differential.  While leading 35-14 with just under 5 minutes remaining, Wheaton went to softer coverage to avoid allowing a quick TD.  Wheaton was allowing the short underneath passes and NCC drove down for the TD, thus taking the lead in point differential.

NCC destroyed Elmhurst, Elmhurst edged out Wheaton, and Wheaton handled NCC.  Weird year...

Elmhurst will likely be ranked highest of the 3, though virtually all but the BlueJay faithful view NCC and Wheaton as stronger teams. 

[MonroviaCat]

So Wally, you gonna take a stab at this before regional rankings come out?  Bethel, Wabash, and Concordia really muddied this up for us!  PLU gets a boost and I think CLU may have just gained a first round home game....unless the committee insists on seeing the CLU to Linfield rematch again.....

[SUADC]

Is the time updated on the site?

[K-Mack]

As far as what's going on here in the North, I think you project North Central as Pool A right now because Elmhurst is going to be a favorite against IWU (can the Titans rebound...sure they can, but would you bank on it...not me).  Thank the heavens for garbage time touchdowns, am I right Cards fans?!  So that throws Wheaton as a serious Pool C player right now because when the rankings come out Wheaton almost HAS to be in front of North Central...identical records, Wheaton has the h2h.  Seems an obvious move to me.  That'll make Wheaton 1-1, Elmhurst, and NCC all 1-1 vs RRO.  I think the relative order here has to be Elmhurst then Wheaton then NCC. 

Quite an obscure scenario. 

Wheaton would miss out of playoffs even though they might be ranked higher than NCC, because NCC has the AQ on point differential.  Wheaton needed to beat NCC by 20 to lead the point differential.  While leading 35-14 with just under 5 minutes remaining, Wheaton went to softer coverage to avoid allowing a quick TD.  Wheaton was allowing the short underneath passes and NCC drove down for the TD, thus taking the lead in point differential.

NCC destroyed Elmhurst, Elmhurst edged out Wheaton, and Wheaton handled NCC.  Weird year...

Elmhurst will likely be ranked highest of the 3, though virtually all but the BlueJay faithful view NCC and Wheaton as stronger teams.

Agree with both wally and mugsy here on pretty much all counts. In the poll this week, I actually had it Wheaton, Elmhurst, NCC, but as was mentioned, there is no right answer, especially because the Albion loss in hindsight doesn't look as bad for Wheaton, while the UW-La Crosse loss kind of does. So for polling purposes, the answer might be a little different than for regional ranking purposes, for which the criteria is clear, and that might be different than for AQ purposes.

[K-Mack]

This feels like a handy place to do this ... as many of the Pool C possbilities (plus B/Wesley) as I can think of (I know all these teams don't have a real shot, and some would have to lose to be in Pool C, so save it) and where they sit in the SoS rankings:

Team    Regional
record    Regional
win %    OWP (rank)    OOWP    NCAA

1 Wesley    5-1    .833    .7561 (2)    .5538    0.689
4 Willamette    6-2    .750    .6604 (4)    .5582    0.626
5 Pacific Lutheran    6-2    .750    .6545 (5)    .5664    0.625
9 Concordia-Moorhead    6-2    .750    .6190 (13)    .5730    0.604
10 Huntingdon    4-2    .667    .6512 (7)    .5058    0.603
14 Bethel    7-2    .778    .5942 (24)    .5669    0.585
27 Endicott    8-2    .800    .6023 (20)    .4846    0.563
31 Wabash    5-2    .714    .6111 (17)    .4601    0.561
33 Wheaton (Ill.)    7-2    .778    .5714 (39)    .5315    0.558
45 Muhlenberg    6-2    .750    .5625 (49)    .5176    0.548
46 Hardin-Simmons    5-3    .625    .5472 (58)    .5477    0.547
49 North Central (Ill.)    7-2    .778    .5507 (53)    .5310    0.544
55 Franklin and Marshall    7-2    .778    .5352 (68)    .5419    0.537
56 Lycoming    7-2    .778    .5652 (43)    .4783    0.536
62 Elmhurst    8-1    .889    .5211 (77)    .5486    0.530
63 UW-Platteville    7-2    .778    .5152 (83)    .5607    0.530
64 Lake Forest    8-1    .889    .5493 (54)    .4906    0.530
80 Cal Lutheran    7-1    .875    .5098 (94)    .5263    0.515
82 St. Olaf    6-2    .750    .4754 (147)    .5936    0.515
85 Ohio Wesleyan    8-1    .889    .5161 (81)    .5009    0.511
87 Bridgewater State    9-1    .900    .5116 (88)    .5097    0.511
89 Rowan    6-1    .857    .5098 (95)    .5048    0.508
96 Louisiana College    5-2    .714    .4889 (128)    .5360    0.505
106 Otterbein    6-2    .750    .4921 (123)    .5138    0.499
115 Greenville    7-2    .778    .5000 (103)    .4860    0.495
119 UW-Whitewater    6-2    .750    .4630 (164)    .5524    0.493
120 St. Scholastica    8-2    .800    .4938 (117)    .4893    0.492
139 Kean    5-2    .714    .4808 (138)    .4917    0.484
140 Northwestern (Minn.)    8-2    .800    .4815 (136)    .4867    0.483
144 Castleton State    7-2    .778    .4783 (142)    .4888    0.482
149 Gallaudet    5-2    .714    .4909 (127)    .4528    0.478
158 Baldwin-Wallace    7-2    .778    .4493 (171)    .5275    0.475
166 Franklin    7-1    .875    .4677 (157)    .4764    0.471
167 Delaware Valley    7-2    .778    .4638 (162)    .4842    0.471
169 Framingham State    9-1    .900    .4483 (174)    .5095    0.469
170 Salve Regina    9-1    .900    .4419 (181)    .5219    0.469
175 Millsaps    6-2    .750    .4444 (176)    .5069    0.465
187 Wisconsin Lutheran    7-2    .778    .4429 (178)    .4715    0.452
194 Heidelberg    8-1    .889    .4118 (206)    .5253    0.450
197 Thomas More    6-2    .750    .4426 (180)    .4489    0.445
211 Hanover    6-2    .750    .4000 (211)    .4844    0.428
214 Mount Ida    7-2    .778    .3857 (217)    .4945    0.422
216 Carroll    7-2    .778    .3889 (215)    .4852    0.421
218 Wittenberg    8-1    .889    .3692 (224)    .5217    0.420
220 Kenyon    6-2    .750    .3770 (222)    .5010    0.418
221 Washington and Jefferson    6-2    .750    .3833 (218)    .4844    0.417
223 Illinois College    7-1    .875    .3692 (225)    .5035    0.414
224 Ferrum    6-2    .750    .3667 (226)    .4951    0.410
227 Waynesburg    9-0    1.000    .3529 (228)    .4991    0.402
228 St. Norbert    7-1    .875    .3538 (227)    .4835    0.397
229 Chapman    6-2    .750    .3396 (229)    .5121    0.397

[K-Mack]

So Wally, you gonna take a stab at this before regional rankings come out?

To do that, he (or anyone else who wanted to take a stab) would first have to take a stab at projecting the regional rankings, so then we could have that info to use to make the Pool C selections.

I think that's step one, to re-do the RR based on what we know now.

[Frank Rossi]

Updated.

OWU and Ill. Coll ... and Bridgewater State, which Wally did not mention and who is 9-1 but is guarded from losing in the NEFC championship game by not participating in it (Fram vs. Salve), might actually be today's big winners. We shall see.

Here are the 1-loss teams remaining in Pool C:

- Wabash or Wittenberg (one will likely win the AQ, the other goes to Pool C)
- OWU (hard to find a scenario that favors the Bishops for the NCAC AQ)
- Elmhurst
- Heidelberg
- Baldwin-Wallace (probably has a second loss coming via UMU)
- Rowan
- Bethel
- Concordia-Moorhead
- Illinois College

And that's it.  9 teams, one is almost certainly going to lose a second time (BW), another has a strong test coming (Concordia-Moorhead).  Elmhurst also has a game left with IWU which is not a gimme, especially if IWU can collect themselves a bit between now and 11/10.

I remember pointing out Bridgewater State to you last weekend on "In the HuddLLe" -- I really think there are two things that make it different from the Endicott scenario last year:

1) The Springfield win was a lot better than the OOC wins Endicott had in 2011.  For subjective strength reasons, this helps Bridgewater; and

2) There are just a lot less one-loss teams on the board this year.  How many times can the Committee pass over a one-loss team when no other one-loss teams exist on the board?  Bridgewater State is likely the second East team on the board.  That means after Rowan is the 1st or 2nd Pool C team picked (assuming a win next week), Bridgewater State will be sitting there for 5 or 6 picks.

That said, this could cause a real chaotic problem in bracketing.  Mount Union is assumed to be a #1 seed atop the East-centric bracket.  Yet, if the NEFC winner, the ECFC winner and Bridgewater State are 6, 7 and 8 in the bracket, Mount Union would be forced to face #5 in the bracket in the First Round to avoid a flight.  The New England teams are all 500+ miles away, and the more teams we see from New England, the uglier the matchups will look in terms of quality teams being ousted in the first round at the hands of the Mount Unions of the fields.  I think the Committee is going to be pained in choosing Bridgewater State, knowing the geographic Twister the pick could cause.  However, I believe it becomes unavoidable under the projected status of the board currently (which can only get better from Bridgewater State in the clubhouse right now at 9-1).

[wally_wabash]

So Wally, you gonna take a stab at this before regional rankings come out?  Bethel, Wabash, and Concordia really muddied this up for us!  PLU gets a boost and I think CLU may have just gained a first round home game....unless the committee insists on seeing the CLU to Linfield rematch again.....

Oh no.  Like last week, I'll wait to project anything until the rankings come out on Wednesday.  Once we get to the point where official rankings are being released, I think it's best to just wait on those instead of trying to guess at what those rankings will look like and projecting off of that guess.   

That, and I don't have the foggiest idea how to order these teams right now, especially in the North.  I don't think we get much change in the South...I think Huntingdon is still just slightly ahead of LC.  I think the East is still probably Rowan-Lyco-Bridgewater State.  North and West though...your guess is as good as mine. 

[USee]

It used to be, before the days of published criteria, SOS and regional rankings, that the committee really favored home vs away records and winning streaks.

For example, losing in the last 2 weeks of the season was often the death blow for a team's pool C chances. That is not a published criteria now but, may be  a way to differentiate teams and rank them.

For example, Wheaton's win yesterday over a RRO was on the road, while they lost to Elmhurst and Albion on the road. Elmhurst's only loss is @NCC and they will have won 6 straight with a win over IWU Saturday. NCC will have 2 losses at home and a loss in the last 2 weeks of the season.

If the committee had the freedom to look at those types of things, they may be able to separate some of the 2 loss teams, etc.

The regional rankings will be huge this week.

[Frank Rossi]

So Wally, you gonna take a stab at this before regional rankings come out?  Bethel, Wabash, and Concordia really muddied this up for us!  PLU gets a boost and I think CLU may have just gained a first round home game....unless the committee insists on seeing the CLU to Linfield rematch again.....

Oh no.  Like last week, I'll wait to project anything until the rankings come out on Wednesday.  Once we get to the point where official rankings are being released, I think it's best to just wait on those instead of trying to guess at what those rankings will look like and projecting off of that guess.   

That, and I don't have the foggiest idea how to order these teams right now, especially in the North.  I don't think we get much change in the South...I think Huntingdon is still just slightly ahead of LC.  I think the East is still probably Rowan-Lyco-Bridgewater State.  North and West though...your guess is as good as mine.

Remember that Lyco plays a winless team this week.  That means its SOS will likely plunge below Bridgewater State, whose OOWP will rise based on the NEFC Championship game most likely.  Subjectivity and games vs. RRO would be the only counterbalance for the Lyco as #2 at-large scenario even if this week's numbers put Lyco above Bridgewater State again.  It's another case of football's SOS numbers being too fluid due to lack of sample size, making the ordering in the East a tough game to guess.

[wesleydad]

if del val beats widener and gets the mac AQ, does that make the committees job easier since widener would likely be the second team on the board after rowan in the east.  sending a 5 to mount would really be unfair since the 5 would likely beat any of the teams in the 6 - 8 spots in the mount bracket.

[smedindy]

After last year I wouldn't be surprised about what the committee will do. I think we need to see the field first before kvetching about seeds and travel! (I speculated last week about a possible North bracket- ooperdy!)

[Mr. Ypsi]

As far as what's going on here in the North, I think you project North Central as Pool A right now because Elmhurst is going to be a favorite against IWU (can the Titans rebound...sure they can, but would you bank on it...not me).  Thank the heavens for garbage time touchdowns, am I right Cards fans?!  So that throws Wheaton as a serious Pool C player right now because when the rankings come out Wheaton almost HAS to be in front of North Central...identical records, Wheaton has the h2h.  Seems an obvious move to me.  That'll make Wheaton 1-1, Elmhurst, and NCC all 1-1 vs RRO.  I think the relative order here has to be Elmhurst then Wheaton then NCC. 

Quite an obscure scenario. 

Wheaton would miss out of playoffs even though they might be ranked higher than NCC, because NCC has the AQ on point differential.  Wheaton needed to beat NCC by 20 to lead the point differential.  While leading 35-14 with just under 5 minutes remaining, Wheaton went to softer coverage to avoid allowing a quick TD.  Wheaton was allowing the short underneath passes and NCC drove down for the TD, thus taking the lead in point differential.

NCC destroyed Elmhurst, Elmhurst edged out Wheaton, and Wheaton handled NCC.  Weird year...

Elmhurst will likely be ranked highest of the 3, though virtually all but the BlueJay faithful view NCC and Wheaton as stronger teams.

Even some of the BlueJay faithful agree with that!

Nonetheless, one loss trumps two losses most of the time: I finally crossed my fingers and went Elmhurst, NCC, Wheaton on my poll ballots, but it is impossible to find a single logical way to untangle the CCIW 'triplets'!

If only IWU's Gallik hadn't gotten hurt - we could be debating the 'quadruplets'!

[USee]

North RR should look like this IMO

mt Union
CUC
Elmhurst
Heidelberg
Witt
Adrian
OWU
Franklin
Wheaton
Wabash

[K-Mack]

Pat and I just went HARD on Pool C in the podcast. 16-17 teams, especially if Kenyon ends up with the NCAC AQ, in contention. Four in each region. Kinda cool to look at them as a group side by side.

But because we've got a site to run, and we need to sleep, we'll roll this stuff out during the week. I'm promising a bonus Pool C blog post, and Pat will do another playoff projection.

As i said on the podcast, we've had two seasons where things go haywire in Week 11 and two-loss Pool C teams get to the board ... but I don't think we've ever had this many who believe in their chances (or this few one-loss teams; I count five, maybe six, depending on who clinches the NCAC) and barring losses by undefeated teams that cost them AQs and drop them into Pool C (Widener, Waynesburg).

All in all, this just got pretty awesome. Week 11 here we come.