Pool C -- 2012

[HScoach]

North RR should look like this IMO

mt Union
CUC
Elmhurst
Heidelberg
Witt
Adrian
OWU
Franklin
Wheaton
Wabash

That's is a VERY winnable region for Oshkosh once Mount heads east again.  I would expect UWO to be placed here to break up the Linfield/St Thomas/Oshkosh grouping.   Most dangerous team to UWO in the North is probably NCC which probably won't be regionally ranked.  H'Berg has some talent, but they're VERY young and this will be their first ever playoff appearance.   Hard to imagine they'll do much damage beyond Round 1.  I realize UWO is making their first appearance too, but big difference between Nate Wara and Co's experience versus the sophomores at H'Berg.   Whereas NCC is battle tested, though inconsistent.

[AUKaz00]

this could cause a real chaotic problem in bracketing.  Mount Union is assumed to be a #1 seed atop the East-centric bracket.  Yet, if the NEFC winner, the ECFC winner and Bridgewater State are 6, 7 and 8 in the bracket, Mount Union would be forced to face #5 in the bracket in the First Round to avoid a flight.  The New England teams are all 500+ miles away, and the more teams we see from New England, the uglier the matchups will look in terms of quality teams being ousted in the first round at the hands of the Mount Unions of the fields.  I think the Committee is going to be pained in choosing Bridgewater State, knowing the geographic Twister the pick could cause.  However, I believe it becomes unavoidable under the projected status of the board currently (which can only get better from Bridgewater State in the clubhouse right now at 9-1).

Wouldn't the committee choose to do something similar to what they did last year?  They could construct an eastern-most bracket where UMU played Adrian or Lake Forest in the first round and then mostly East Region teams from there on.  New England teams could play at Hobart or Widener and MAC/NJAC teams could play in the southern-most bracket.

[Frank Rossi]

this could cause a real chaotic problem in bracketing.  Mount Union is assumed to be a #1 seed atop the East-centric bracket.  Yet, if the NEFC winner, the ECFC winner and Bridgewater State are 6, 7 and 8 in the bracket, Mount Union would be forced to face #5 in the bracket in the First Round to avoid a flight.  The New England teams are all 500+ miles away, and the more teams we see from New England, the uglier the matchups will look in terms of quality teams being ousted in the first round at the hands of the Mount Unions of the fields.  I think the Committee is going to be pained in choosing Bridgewater State, knowing the geographic Twister the pick could cause.  However, I believe it becomes unavoidable under the projected status of the board currently (which can only get better from Bridgewater State in the clubhouse right now at 9-1).

Wouldn't the committee choose to do something similar to what they did last year?  They could construct an eastern-most bracket where UMU played Adrian or Lake Forest in the first round and then mostly East Region teams from there on.  New England teams could play at Hobart or Widener and MAC/NJAC teams could play in the southern-most bracket.

I think this year's bracketing makes things tough in that respect.

1) Mount Union
2) Hobart
3) Widener
4) Cortland St.
5) Rowan
6) Salve Regina/Framingham St.
7) Bridgewater St.
8) Mt. Ida/Castleton St.

The only way it would be feasible would be to roll Rowan out of the East and into the South with a Rowan/Wesley matchup in the First Round.  However, bringing in a really low-profile team with three or four losses would make the bracket extremely imbalanced.  I'm not saying it would be impossible.  However, something's gotta give if Bridgewater is indeed a Pool C team.

[Pat Coleman]

Nothing will have to give because Bridgewater State will not be a Pool C team.

[Frank Rossi]

Nothing will have to give because Bridgewater State will not be a Pool C team.

Because...?

[AO]

Nothing will have to give because Bridgewater State will not be a Pool C team.

Because...?

Strength of Schedule
Pacific Lutheran: .625
Bethel: .585
Wabash: .561
Wheaton: .558
Bridgewater State: 0.511

[AUKaz00]

this could cause a real chaotic problem in bracketing.  Mount Union is assumed to be a #1 seed atop the East-centric bracket.  Yet, if the NEFC winner, the ECFC winner and Bridgewater State are 6, 7 and 8 in the bracket, Mount Union would be forced to face #5 in the bracket in the First Round to avoid a flight.  The New England teams are all 500+ miles away, and the more teams we see from New England, the uglier the matchups will look in terms of quality teams being ousted in the first round at the hands of the Mount Unions of the fields.  I think the Committee is going to be pained in choosing Bridgewater State, knowing the geographic Twister the pick could cause.  However, I believe it becomes unavoidable under the projected status of the board currently (which can only get better from Bridgewater State in the clubhouse right now at 9-1).

Wouldn't the committee choose to do something similar to what they did last year?  They could construct an eastern-most bracket where UMU played Adrian or Lake Forest in the first round and then mostly East Region teams from there on.  New England teams could play at Hobart or Widener and MAC/NJAC teams could play in the southern-most bracket.

I think this year's bracketing makes things tough in that respect.

1) Mount Union
2) Hobart
3) Widener
4) Cortland St.
5) Rowan
6) Salve Regina/Framingham St.
7) Bridgewater St.
8) Mt. Ida/Castleton St.

The only way it would be feasible would be to roll Rowan out of the East and into the South with a Rowan/Wesley matchup in the First Round.  However, bringing in a really low-profile team with three or four losses would make the bracket extremely imbalanced.  I'm not saying it would be impossible.  However, something's gotta give if Bridgewater is indeed a Pool C team.

One of the New England schools could go to Wesley, another to Hobart and the last to Widener (assuming they're undefeated).  Mount Union gets a North or West team in the first round.  Cortland could get JHU in the "east" and Rowan could go to Salisbury in the "south".  I liked what the committee did last year and hope they mix and match regions again.

[wally_wabash]

Nothing will have to give because Bridgewater State will not be a Pool C team.

Because...?

I think because Bridgewater State was buried behind a bunch of two loss East teams.  You can wipe SJF off of those in the way of Bridgewater State after Saturday.  But still in the way are Rowan and whoever is left over from the MAC (Widener or Lycoming and/or possibly Delaware Valley if they win on Saturday).  I think it's just too many teams in Bridgewater State's way for them to be selected. 

Unless they totally jumble the regional rankings from last week.  Why not?  Let's keep it interesting.   

[Frank Rossi]

Nothing will have to give because Bridgewater State will not be a Pool C team.

Because...?

Strength of Schedule
Pacific Lutheran: .625
Bethel: .585
Wabash: .561
Wheaton: .558
Bridgewater State: 0.511

Two things, though:  one loss vs. two losses accounts for some offset.  Also, Bridgewater will benefit in SOS from the NEFC Championship Game.  The only offset to that would be Springfield's result vs. WPI (Springfield win helps, loss hurts).  I guess we're going to learn how much RRO stats mean in these scenarios at the end of the day -- this will be interesting.

[wally_wabash]

Nothing will have to give because Bridgewater State will not be a Pool C team.

Because...?

Strength of Schedule
Pacific Lutheran: .625
Bethel: .585
Wabash: .561
Wheaton: .558
Bridgewater State: 0.511

Two things, though:  one loss vs. two losses accounts for some offset.  Also, Bridgewater will benefit in SOS from the NEFC Championship Game.  The only offset to that would be Springfield's result vs. WPI (Springfield win helps, loss hurts).  I guess we're going to learn how much RRO stats mean in these scenarios at the end of the day -- this will be interesting.

I'm estimating here, but I don't think Bridgewater is going to get a significant bump in SOS from the NEFC title game happening.  Follow me here...

Bridgewater State played Frahmingham State who could get an extra win.  That pushes BSU's OWP up by one game.  BSU's OWP right now is .5116 which if I assume all of their opponents have regional games it means those opponents are 46-45 currently.  One more win makes BSU's opponents 47-45 for a .5165 OWP. 

Now, if we assume BSU's opponent's opponents have all regional games, then their record currently is something on the order of 413-397.  If we add another 9-1 record on to that, we get 422-398 or a OOWP of .5146 compared to .5097 before the NEFC title game. 

Add up 2/3 of OWP and 1/3 of OOWP and you get a new SOS of 0.516 compared to 0.511.  This is all estimation and there will be a game here or there that I'm not accounting for, but one game here or there isn't going to give BSU the 0.05 or so SOS boost they need to start leaping teams that the RAC has already decided are in front of them. 

[Pat Coleman]

Springfield also plays WPI this week. I suspect that's going to cancel out pretty much anything that BW State would gain from Framingham playing Salve.

[Frank Rossi]

Springfield also plays WPI this week. I suspect that's going to cancel out pretty much anything that BW State would gain from Framingham playing Salve.

If Springfield wins, that would help OWP, no?  Also remember that most of Bridgewater St.'s opponents and opponents' opponents are in the clubhouse.  So, there isn't going to be much movement in the SOS for Bridgewater St. aside from what's been specifically mentioned.  Lycoming has an 0-9 team to go, which means at least an 0.03 drop in SOS overall, with everything else being equal.  I'm pretty confident there's no way Lyco's SOS would remain above Bridgewater St.'s barring some really extreme results in the OOWS numbers on both sides.

(Wally, you might be forgetting that only two teams in the NEFC play this weekend -- and most of the NEFC schedules overlap themselves.)

[Pat Coleman]

By one game it would help OWP but it would hurt OOWP the same amount that Salve would help it.

[wally_wabash]

Springfield also plays WPI this week. I suspect that's going to cancel out pretty much anything that BW State would gain from Framingham playing Salve.

If Springfield wins, that would help OWP, no?  Also remember that most of Bridgewater St.'s opponents and opponents' opponents are in the clubhouse.  So, there isn't going to be much movement in the SOS for Bridgewater St. aside from what's been specifically mentioned.  Lycoming has an 0-9 team to go, which means at least an 0.03 drop in SOS overall, with everything else being equal.  I'm pretty confident there's no way Lyco's SOS would remain above Bridgewater St.'s barring some really extreme results in the OOWS numbers on both sides.

(Wally, you might be forgetting that only two teams in the NEFC play this weekend -- and most of the NEFC schedules overlap themselves.)

No, I'm aware of who is playing on Saturday.  BSU's SOS just isn't going to move much because they're in the clubhouse.  They'll be adding just two results to their OWP and the OOWP size is so big at this point that movement there is negligible. 

Even with the drop in SOS for Lycoming, I think it's hard for the RAC to have BSU jump Lycoming when BSU doesn't play, assuming Lycoming wins of course. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

A clarification, please, on SoS.  Both OWP and OOWP are calculated for all d3 opponents (whether in or out of region), but only for d3 opponents - correct?