Pool C -- 2012

[Pat Coleman]

Regional SOS is only regional numbers, so it's your regional record, the opponents' regional record and their opponents' regional record, calculated for your games that are in-region.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Regional SOS is only regional numbers, so it's your regional record, the opponents' regional record and their opponents' regional record, calculated for your games that are in-region.

Thanks - I didn't realize that SoS was also only in-region.

[Frank Rossi]

Springfield also plays WPI this week. I suspect that's going to cancel out pretty much anything that BW State would gain from Framingham playing Salve.

If Springfield wins, that would help OWP, no?  Also remember that most of Bridgewater St.'s opponents and opponents' opponents are in the clubhouse.  So, there isn't going to be much movement in the SOS for Bridgewater St. aside from what's been specifically mentioned.  Lycoming has an 0-9 team to go, which means at least an 0.03 drop in SOS overall, with everything else being equal.  I'm pretty confident there's no way Lyco's SOS would remain above Bridgewater St.'s barring some really extreme results in the OOWS numbers on both sides.

(Wally, you might be forgetting that only two teams in the NEFC play this weekend -- and most of the NEFC schedules overlap themselves.)

No, I'm aware of who is playing on Saturday.  BSU's SOS just isn't going to move much because they're in the clubhouse.  They'll be adding just two results to their OWP and the OOWP size is so big at this point that movement there is negligible. 

Even with the drop in SOS for Lycoming, I think it's hard for the RAC to have BSU jump Lycoming when BSU doesn't play, assuming Lycoming wins of course.

I don't look at it as an idle team jumping.  I look at it as an active team slipping.  There's actually a difference there beyond semantics.

[USee]

it may not be relevant to what you are discussing but an actual example from 2008 was that in the week before the final games the regional rankings for the North came out and had Wooster ahead of Wheaton (both with 2 losses). Both teams won their final game and Wheaton ended up the last team picked while Wooster stayed home. Wheaton ended up in the semifinals against Mt Union. Clearly Wheaton jumped Wooster in the regional rankings in order to get to the table. Something similar may have happened last year with SJF.

[K-Mack]

Pat's point on the podcast, re: Bridgewater State, is that they have an h2h loss to Framingham, which means they won't jump them. Then, because one of the criteria is results in postseason contests, and theory that a bad result is better than no result, Salve would still have to get in before Bridgewater.

I don't think I started out thinking that way, but I am more convinced than before that Bridgewater State is up against it, and their 9-1 might not be judged better than the NEFC title game loser's 9-2.

[K-Mack]

My pre-regional-ranking guide to Pool C:

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?p=2034

[HScoach]

Good projection.   I can't shoot any holes in the 7 teams you picked.   Now the fun will be re-calculating this after Saturday's games screw it all up.....

Who are your #1 seeds, in seeded order?   Mine would be:
#1 Mount Union (east)
#2 MHB (south)
#3 Linfield (west)
#4 Oshkosh (north)

Based on schedule, I could also see MHB being the overall #1 instead of Mount.   IMHO, Oshkosh is a clear #4 overall. 

[thewaterboy]

My #1 seeds would be:

#1 UMHB (south)
#2 Mount Union (east)
#3 Linfield (west)
#4 Oshkosh (north)

I kind of anticipate UMHB going as the #1 because of SOS, but mostly because of their out-of-conference win over Wesley. IMO, that has given them the #1 seed after that W alone. The committee seems to look to SOS to determine those seeds (Remember 2010, Wesley got the #1 overall seed and had the best SOS).

[USee]

I know we saw a 2 loss team jump a 1 loss team last year but I just have a hard time believing that will happen in the North this year. Do you guys really think Witt and OWU with 1 loss will be ahead of Wheaton? I would love that but my head tells me no way.

[wally_wabash]

That's a really good piece, Keith.  It's really tough to try and order these teams while trying to balance win percentage, h2h results, results vs RROs and SOS.  Usually, it falls into place pretty well (see: last week). Not so much right now. 

I thought we'd kick off Regional Rankings day wiht a Pool A recap.  Here's what I've got so far in Pool A...new teams to list are in italics, teams that have clinched bids are bolded.   

League	Team
ASC	UMHB
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	North Central
ECFC	Castleton State
E8	Salisbury
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Coe
LL	Hobart
MIAA	Adrian
MAC	Widener
MWC	Lake Forest
MIAC	St. Thomas
NEFC	Salve Regina
NJAC	Cortland State
NCAC	Kenyon
NAC	Concordia-Chicago
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Washington & Lee
PAC	Waynesburg
SCIAC	Cal Lutheran
UMAC	St. Scholastica
USAC	Christopher Newport
WIAC	UW-Oshkosh

Everybody who hasn't clinched is in a win and in situation with the following exceptions:
North Central- Needs an Elmhurst win to force a three-way tiebreak. 
Kenyon - Strangley, Kenyon needs Witt and OWU to both win to force a three way tie. Or just Witt..I guess Kenyon probably wins a tiebreak with Wittenberg also.  I don't know.  It's screwy. 

I guess we can also talk about Pool B before the rankings are released.  Wesley will be granted the Pool B bid.  They hold advantages on win pct, RRO results, SOS, and h2h against their only real Pool B challenger, Huntingdon. 

[USee]

That's a really good piece, Keith.  It's really tough to try and order these teams while trying to balance win percentage, h2h results, results vs RROs and SOS.  Usually, it falls into place pretty well (see: last week). Not so much right now. 

I thought we'd kick off Regional Rankings day wiht a Pool A recap.  Here's what I've got so far in Pool A...new teams to list are in italics, teams that have clinched bids are bolded.   

League	Team
ASC	UMHB
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	North Central
ECFC	Castleton State
E8	Salisbury
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Coe
LL	Hobart
MIAA	Adrian
MAC	Widener
MWC	Lake Forest
MIAC	St. Thomas
NEFC	Salve Regina
NJAC	Cortland State
NCAC	Kenyon
NAC	Concordia-Chicago
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Washington & Lee
PAC	Waynesburg
SCIAC	Cal Lutheran
UMAC	St. Scholastica
USAC	Christopher Newport
WIAC	UW-Oshkosh

Everybody who hasn't clinched is in a win and in situation with the following exceptions:
North Central- Needs an Elmhurst win to force a three-way tiebreak. 
Kenyon - Strangley, Kenyon needs Witt and OWU to both win to force a three way tie. Or just Witt..I guess Kenyon probably wins a tiebreak with Wittenberg also.  I don't know.  It's screwy. 

I guess we can also talk about Pool B before the rankings are released.  Wesley will be granted the Pool B bid.  They hold advantages on win pct, RRO results, SOS, and h2h against their only real Pool B challenger, Huntingdon.

Wally,

Awesome stuff.

[Pat Coleman]

I think St. Thomas will get the top seed over Linfield if it wins. Linfield's SOS will continue to slide and St. Thomas' will climb. St. Thomas' recent postseason history gives them the nod in that unbeaten-team tiebreaker that was put in last year.

My #1 seeds would be:

#1 UMHB (south)
#2 Mount Union (east)
#3 Linfield (west)
#4 Oshkosh (north)

I kind of anticipate UMHB going as the #1 because of SOS, but mostly because of their out-of-conference win over Wesley. IMO, that has given them the #1 seed after that W alone. The committee seems to look to SOS to determine those seeds (Remember 2010, Wesley got the #1 overall seed and had the best SOS).

[smedindy]

I still don't know how Kenyon gets the NCAC AQ? Will the NCAC issue a definitive statement?

[SUADC]

I think St. Thomas will get the top seed over Linfield if it wins. Linfield's SOS will continue to slide and St. Thomas' will climb. St. Thomas' recent postseason history gives them the nod in that unbeaten-team tiebreaker that was put in last year.

My #1 seeds would be:

#1 UMHB (south)
#2 Mount Union (east)
#3 Linfield (west)
#4 Oshkosh (north)

I kind of anticipate UMHB going as the #1 because of SOS, but mostly because of their out-of-conference win over Wesley. IMO, that has given them the #1 seed after that W alone. The committee seems to look to SOS to determine those seeds (Remember 2010, Wesley got the #1 overall seed and had the best SOS).

So how much weight or consideration does the committee give teams for past playoff apperances? Which holds more weight, SOS or recent playoff appearances?

[smedindy]

Past playoff appearances only matter when considering unbeaten teams and i think it's a secondary criteria.