Pool C -- 2012

[wally_wabash]

Sort of playing around a bit with SOS numbers in the North region...we can do some estimation on this since Saturday's games won't be factored in to OWPs. 

I did a little more than estimate with Wabash.  Wabash enters Saturday with an OWP of .6111 (opponent's regional record less results vs. Wabash is 33-21, FYI).  To that number, Wabash is going to add DePauw's 1-5 record (boo), Witt/Oberlin/OWU/Wooster will add two wins and two losses no matter how those games go.  That leaves results from Hanover (vs. Franklin), Denison (vs. Kenyon), and Allegheny (vs. Hiram) to factor in.  I'll go ahead and count Allegheny as a win.  I think we have to project Denison and Hanover as losses.  Add it all up and Wabash is going to add 4 wins and 9 losses to their OWP, which translates to a 37-30 opponents' record.   What does it do to Wabash's SOS... [(33/54) *(2/3)] - [(37/67) * (2/3)] = .0392.  Wabash stands to lose about .0392 on their SOS, which really stinks.  That's a big hit.  Now, DePauw's OWP of .5652 (give or take this weekend's results) is going to get lumped in to Wabash's OOWP of .4601, so some of that loss will be offset, but it's still going to be a net loss for Wabash's SOS.  If Denison can beat Kenyon, that loss gets cut to 0.029.  If Hanover and Denison win, it shrinks further to just 0.019.  Just something to watch for. 

I did the extra math for Wabash because I have an extra interest there, obviously.  One other thing to note here is that the effect of DePauw's record on Wabash's SOS is magnified because Wabash's aggregregate regional record is smaller because Washington and Carnegie Mellon are ridiculously not factored in. 

Anyway, looking and estimating what to expect from other SOS's this week amongst our North region hopefuls...

Elmhurst - Probably the big winner this weekend (unless they lose of course).  IWU will bump their OWP, and later today I'd almost bet the farm that Wheaton will pop up as a regional win for them.  IWU's OWP will ding the Jays' OOWP just a smidge.  Elmhurst's opponents are probably looking at a 1-2 weekend which also doesn't help, but overall this is going to be a net win for Elmhurst this weekend.  I think the Titans get about a 0.01 or so boost...new estimate 0.540.


Wheaton - North Park's 1-8 record plus non-league opponent's results are probably going to knock down Wheaton's SOS by somewhere around 0.03 points...kind of in the same boat as Wabash.  New estimate - 0.530

North Central - Augustana will keep their OWP about the same.  UWs Stout and LaCrosse are likely losers this weekend.  Redlands is a likely winner.  Net result here is that North Central's SOS shouldn't move too much, maybe a touch lower if anything.  New estimate - 0.540

Witt - Oberlin will actually bump Witt's SOS but it's really pretty marginal.  New estimate - 0.425

OWU - Wooster does not help OWU's SOS.  Bishops are looking at a drop of 0.025 or so.  New estimate - 0.485

Heidelberg - Gets a boost from B-W.  I'm estimating about 0.025.  But the Berg's SOS is still very low.  New estimate - 0.475

And for completeness, I'm estimating Wabash's SOS to land somewhere around 0.525. 

What's it all mean?  Mostly, I think it means Wittenberg is in trouble if they don't get the NCAC AQ.  For everybody else, I think it means you can order these teams in almost any way you want and so justifiably.  Whether you like win pct or quality wins or schedule strength, there is a wildly different way to order these teams that fits any preference.  This is going to be super interesting to see what happens this afternoon.   

[short]

Wally, are you saying that if Witt doesn't get the AQ OWU and Wabash would be in front of them as Pool B at large teams? 

[wally_wabash]

Wally, are you saying that if Witt doesn't get the AQ OWU and Wabash would be in front of them as Pool B at large teams?

Pool C teams, just so that we're accurate.  You could certainly make a case that OWU and Wabash would be in front of Witt in the North Region.  I doubt that will happen.  Despite the h2h results and superior SOS, my feeling is that Wabash is going to get hammered for losing a second game.  Thems the breaks. 

Wittenberg doesn't have a Wabash problem right now as much as I think they've got an everybody else problem.  Witt has a poor SOS that won't get better on Saturday.  They will not have any quality wins to hang their hat on.  The best thing Witt can say about their schedule is that they beat two teams that Wabash lost to and at that point you're really starting to get into some pretty skinny arguments when trying to get selected in front of teams like Bethel (strong SOS, quality win), Huntingdon (same as Bethel), or even a team like PLU who has a monster SOS without a quality win.  Witt's SOS right now ranks as 218 out of 229 which wins them zero favors from a selection committee.  That's the bottom line for Wittenberg I think. 

We'll know what's up with Witt when the rankings come out.  They will be behind Elmhurst and Heidelberg.  They may be behind Wheaton as well.  And there is a slim chance that they get behind Wabash also.  I think if Witt winds up behind Wheaton they have basically zero chance at selection.  They'll have a slim chance if they stay ahead of Wheaton.  Witt really needs Elmhurst or Heidelberg to lose to feel good about getting an invitation to the tournament. 

[K-Mack]

I know we saw a 2 loss team jump a 1 loss team last year but I just have a hard time believing that will happen in the North this year. Do you guys really think Witt and OWU with 1 loss will be ahead of Wheaton? I would love that but my head tells me no way.

See chart.

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2012/11/07/your-handy-guide-to-pool-c/

[K-Mack]

I still don't know how Kenyon gets the NCAC AQ? Will the NCAC issue a definitive statement?

In discussion on ATN board. They have been cooperative, but I would not call the statement definitive. I think I walked through how I get Kenyon either there or in the post.

[K-Mack]

I think St. Thomas will get the top seed over Linfield if it wins. Linfield's SOS will continue to slide and St. Thomas' will climb. St. Thomas' recent postseason history gives them the nod in that unbeaten-team tiebreaker that was put in last year.

My #1 seeds would be:

#1 UMHB (south)
#2 Mount Union (east)
#3 Linfield (west)
#4 Oshkosh (north)

I kind of anticipate UMHB going as the #1 because of SOS, but mostly because of their out-of-conference win over Wesley. IMO, that has given them the #1 seed after that W alone. The committee seems to look to SOS to determine those seeds (Remember 2010, Wesley got the #1 overall seed and had the best SOS).

I definitely think St. Thomas grades out above UW-Oshkosh, and if there was a way they could do it, both UST and Linfield would get the 1 seeds, along with UMHB and UMU.

Interesting with UMHB as overall 1. Hadn't thought about that, but makes sense ... and a difference, playing in December in Ohio, Minn/Wisc, Delaware, or TEXAS :lol:

[wally_wabash]

I still don't know how Kenyon gets the NCAC AQ? Will the NCAC issue a definitive statement?

In discussion on ATN board. They have been cooperative, but I would not call the statement definitive. I think I walked through how I get Kenyon either there or in the post.

It definitely seems like Kenyon gets the AQ if everybody who we think should win wins.  I don't know why common opponents matter when examining, top to bottom, who you beat but then common opponents don't matter when examining, bottom to top, who you lost to. 

The office is probably fairly mum on this because you kind of have to wait for all of the results to come in before you can say who wins what tiebreak.  For instance, if Witt and Kenyon win and OWU loses, then it matters who wins the tie for third between Wabash and OWU (Wabash does, I think, but that applies logic and reason which has no place in the NCAC's tiebreak rules so who really knows).  There are probably just too many permutations here to say who wins in what scenario.  If it were an either/or situation it probably would've been in the weekly release or blasted out in a tweet by now. 

[USee]

I added record and opponent this weekend to Wally's data here.

That's a really good piece, Keith.  It's really tough to try and order these teams while trying to balance win percentage, h2h results, results vs RROs and SOS.  Usually, it falls into place pretty well (see: last week). Not so much right now. 

I thought we'd kick off Regional Rankings day wiht a Pool A recap.  Here's what I've got so far in Pool A...new teams to list are in italics, teams that have clinched bids are bolded.   

League	Team
ASC	UMHB (9-0, v Miss College, 2-7)
CC	Johns Hopkins (7-1, v. McDaniel, 0-8)
CCIW	North Central (7-2, @ Augustana, 5-4)
ECFC	Castleton State (7-2, v Mount Ida, 7-2)
E8	Salisbury (7-2, @Frostburg St, 3-6)
HCAC	Franklin (7-2, v Hanover, 6-3)
IIAC	Coe (9-0, v Central, 5-4)
LL	Hobart (9-0, v Rochester, 4-4)
MIAA	Adrian (8-1, @Huntington, 6-2)
MAC	Widener (8-0, v Delaware Valley, 7-2)
MWC	Lake Forest (8-1, @ St Norbert, 7-2)
MIAC	St. Thomas (9-0, v St Olaf, 7-2)
NEFC	Salve Regina (9-1, @ Framingham St, 9-1)
NJAC	Cortland State (7-1, v Ithaca, 6-3)
NCAC	Kenyon (6-3, v Denison, 3-6)
NAC	Concordia-Chicago (9-0, @ Maranatha, 0-9)
NWC	Linfield (8-0, v Pacific, 3-5)
OAC	Mount Union (9-0, @ John Carroll, 6-3)
ODAC	Washington & Lee (7-2, v Shenandoah, 1-8)
PAC	Waynesburg (9-0 v Wash and Jeff, 7-2)
SCIAC	Cal Lutheran (7-1, v Chapman, 6-2)
UMAC	St. Scholastica (8-2, @ Minn Morris, 6-4)
USAC	Christopher Newport (6-3, v Methodist, 4-5)
WIAC	UW-Oshkosh (9-0, v Stout, 3-6)

Everybody who hasn't clinched is in a win and in situation with the following exceptions:
North Central- Needs an Elmhurst win to force a three-way tiebreak. 
Kenyon - Strangley, Kenyon needs Witt and OWU to both win to force a three way tie. Or just Witt..I guess Kenyon probably wins a tiebreak with Wittenberg also.  I don't know.  It's screwy. 

I guess we can also talk about Pool B before the rankings are released.  Wesley will be granted the Pool B bid.  They hold advantages on win pct, RRO results, SOS, and h2h against their only real Pool B challenger, Huntingdon.

[wally_wabash]

Remember when the rankings were posted at around 12:30 last week?  Good times.   

[SUADC]

I think St. Thomas will get the top seed over Linfield if it wins. Linfield's SOS will continue to slide and St. Thomas' will climb. St. Thomas' recent postseason history gives them the nod in that unbeaten-team tiebreaker that was put in last year.

My #1 seeds would be:

#1 UMHB (south)
#2 Mount Union (east)
#3 Linfield (west)
#4 Oshkosh (north)

I kind of anticipate UMHB going as the #1 because of SOS, but mostly because of their out-of-conference win over Wesley. IMO, that has given them the #1 seed after that W alone. The committee seems to look to SOS to determine those seeds (Remember 2010, Wesley got the #1 overall seed and had the best SOS).

I definitely think St. Thomas grades out above UW-Oshkosh, and if there was a way they could do it, both UST and Linfield would get the 1 seeds, along with UMHB and UMU.

Interesting with UMHB as overall 1. Hadn't thought about that, but makes sense ... and a difference, playing in December in Ohio, Minn/Wisc, Delaware, or TEXAS :lol:

It is so unfortunate that both UST and Linfield cannot get #1 seeds due to economic circumstances. I am not going to lie, I would donate to the cost that would allow each team to garner a #1 seed.

[MonroviaCat]

I think St. Thomas will get the top seed over Linfield if it wins. Linfield's SOS will continue to slide and St. Thomas' will climb. St. Thomas' recent postseason history gives them the nod in that unbeaten-team tiebreaker that was put in last year.

My #1 seeds would be:

#1 UMHB (south)
#2 Mount Union (east)
#3 Linfield (west)
#4 Oshkosh (north)

I kind of anticipate UMHB going as the #1 because of SOS, but mostly because of their out-of-conference win over Wesley. IMO, that has given them the #1 seed after that W alone. The committee seems to look to SOS to determine those seeds (Remember 2010, Wesley got the #1 overall seed and had the best SOS).

I definitely think St. Thomas grades out above UW-Oshkosh, and if there was a way they could do it, both UST and Linfield would get the 1 seeds, along with UMHB and UMU.

Interesting with UMHB as overall 1. Hadn't thought about that, but makes sense ... and a difference, playing in December in Ohio, Minn/Wisc, Delaware, or TEXAS :lol:

It is dso unfortunate that both UST and Linfield cannot get #1 seeds due to economic circumstances. I am not going to lie, I would donate to the cost that would allow each team to garner a #1 seed.

I'd rather donate to the fund that would allow Linfield to get a new oponent in round 1 of the playoffs instead of a team they've already played this year and the last several years (Cal Lu or PLU), but I'd settle for St. Thomas being in a different bracket.  Actually, go ahead and send them and OshKosh to the North

[USee]

Rankings are out:

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3

[02 Warhawk]

What is this economic restraint that people are referring to that won't allow Linfield to be #1 in the West, and St. Thomas #1 in the North?

Is that because it'll be cheaper to fly Linfield into the midwest, rather than numerous midwest schools flying out west?

I guess I assumed this:
1 West - Linfield
1 North - St. Thomas (two and three being UWO and *NCC - what a region that would be)
1 East - UMU
1 South - MHB

*Or, with two losses, they might tell NCC to fly out west to play Cal Luth and/or Linfield

[Pat Coleman]

Regional rankings are out:
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2012/11/07/second-2012-ncaa-regional-rankings/

[Pat Coleman]

What is this economic restraint that people are referring to that won't allow Linfield to be #1 in the West, and St. Thomas #1 in the North?

Is that because it'll be cheaper to fly Linfield into the midwest, rather than numerous midwest schools flying out west?

I guess I assumed this:
1 West - Linfield
1 North - St. Thomas (two and three being UWO and *NCC - what a region that would be)
1 East - UMU
1 South - MHB

*Or, with two losses, they might tell NCC to fly out west to play Cal Luth and/or Linfield

Problem is that when you get your 32 schools, it's hard to center enough of them within 500 miles of UST. Unless we have an entire bracket that has to fly anyway ... and that would have to contain both Linfield and UMHB, which is an even worse solution.