Pool C -- 2012

[smedindy]

Witt being 5th in the RR makes me feel that they're pretty secure in their spot, though if all plays out they'll still be 3rd on the potential "C" table in the North.

Wabash not being RR'd makes is a tough road for the LG's. I'm sure Wally will formalize his punditry on this ("guaranteed more accurate than Dick Morris or your money back")

[USee]

With Wheaton being the likely #4 Pool C team out of the North, their Pool C hopes are on life support. Only way to the dance for them is AQ via an IWU win Saturday.

Interesting that in the North, the committee's ranked straighline 1 loss teams then 2 loss teams. But they change up their order of 1 loss teams with OWU, and Adrian. Not sure why they would do that as Adrian is already in as AQ so it shouldn't matter. 

[02 Warhawk]

What is this economic restraint that people are referring to that won't allow Linfield to be #1 in the West, and St. Thomas #1 in the North?

Is that because it'll be cheaper to fly Linfield into the midwest, rather than numerous midwest schools flying out west?

I guess I assumed this:
1 West - Linfield
1 North - St. Thomas (two and three being UWO and *NCC - what a region that would be)
1 East - UMU
1 South - MHB

*Or, with two losses, they might tell NCC to fly out west to play Cal Luth and/or Linfield

Problem is that when you get your 32 schools, it's hard to center enough of them within 500 miles of UST. Unless we have an entire bracket that has to fly anyway ... and that would have to contain both Linfield and UMHB, which is an even worse solution.

So are you saying that UST might be shipped out West?

[MonroviaCat]

What is this economic restraint that people are referring to that won't allow Linfield to be #1 in the West, and St. Thomas #1 in the North?

Is that because it'll be cheaper to fly Linfield into the midwest, rather than numerous midwest schools flying out west?

I guess I assumed this:
1 West - Linfield
1 North - St. Thomas (two and three being UWO and *NCC - what a region that would be)
1 East - UMU
1 South - MHB

*Or, with two losses, they might tell NCC to fly out west to play Cal Luth and/or Linfield

Problem is that when you get your 32 schools, it's hard to center enough of them within 500 miles of UST. Unless we have an entire bracket that has to fly anyway ... and that would have to contain both Linfield and UMHB, which is an even worse solution.

So are you saying that UST might be shipped out West?

Likely St. Thomas would be #2 seed in the west and would only be shipped to the real west in round 3 (assuming they and Linfield were the last teams left in the west)---They'd have home games probably before that....The West bracket is always a problem because you always have at least 2 teams (possibly 3 this year) that are really in the West (insted of the midwest)---and those teams usually have to play each other regardless of their rankings......

[02 Warhawk]

What is this economic restraint that people are referring to that won't allow Linfield to be #1 in the West, and St. Thomas #1 in the North?

Is that because it'll be cheaper to fly Linfield into the midwest, rather than numerous midwest schools flying out west?

I guess I assumed this:
1 West - Linfield
1 North - St. Thomas (two and three being UWO and *NCC - what a region that would be)
1 East - UMU
1 South - MHB

*Or, with two losses, they might tell NCC to fly out west to play Cal Luth and/or Linfield

Problem is that when you get your 32 schools, it's hard to center enough of them within 500 miles of UST. Unless we have an entire bracket that has to fly anyway ... and that would have to contain both Linfield and UMHB, which is an even worse solution.

So are you saying that UST might be shipped out West?

Likely St. Thomas would be #2 seed in the west and would only be shipped to the real west in round 3 (assuming they and Linfield were the last teams left in the west)---They'd have home games probably before that....The West bracket is always a problem because you always have at least 2 teams (possibly 3 this year) that are really in the West (insted of the midwest)---and those teams usually have to play each other regardless of their rankings......

So that leaves Oshkosh No. 1 in the North with probably Wittenberg and NCC. That would be a favorable draw for Oshkosh.

[wally_wabash]

Alright, I laid out Pools A and B a little earlier.  Here's my current Pool C projection based on today's regional ranking:

3N Elmhurst, 8-1, 0.530 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO
5E Rowan, 6-2 (6-1 in D3), 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO
4N Heidelberg, 8-1, 0.450 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO
5S Huntingdon, 6-2, 0.602 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO
6W Pacific Lutheran, 6-2, 0.627 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO
7W Bethel, 7-2, 0.585 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO
8W Concordia-Moorhead, 7-2, 0.604 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO

...with Wittenberg, Louisiana College, and Lycoming left on the table. 

So what happened here?  The rankings buried Wheaton behind both Witt and OWU which kills their shot at getting to the board.  OWU sits behind Witt which makes some sense, but also kills their shot.  Why?  Because Wittenberg is a hard choice wth that 0.420 SOS.  Every team that Witt is lumped with either has an SOS of over .600, a win vs RRO, or both. 

So why did I pick Heidelberg who also has a poor SOS and zero quality wins?  I think Heidelberg's SOS will tick up enough after this Saturday that they'll be a fairly easy choice as a 9-1 OAC runner up.  I know that what league you play in is not criteria, but does anybody really believe that the 9-1 OAC runner up won't get in?  But after Heidelberg comes off, Witt clogs up the North board in a big way.  At least that's how I see it. 

Big losers here I think are Wheaton and North Central.  If either or both wind up in Pool C they are hopelessly buried behind other at-large teams.  PLU wins by jumping up over the MIAC losers from last week, but they really could have used Willamette getting ranked to make their candidacy a lock.  One other loser here I think is F&M.  F&M now has a 2-1 record vs RRO (Wabash is the only other Pool C-ish team out there with 2 wins vs. RRO) but did not jump Muhlenberg.  That's big because there's a chance that Lycoming wins the MAC and puts a third East at-large team in play (after Rowan and Widener if Lycoming wins the MAC).  And of course the biggest loser of the day is probably Wabash.  The Oberlin result negated the good work they did at Wittenberg and OWU and the LGs are out of the rankings entirely and barring total armageddon on Saturday are not in the playoff conversation.  Oh and Lycoming.  Endicott being ranked and not Delaware Valley is no good for Lycoming.  That's purely an SOS play there for Endicott. 

One other thing to note here...if the national committee loves a win pct as much as the North RAC does, then you'd likely see Witt and OWU both get peeled off the board before Huntingdon.  Which brings Wheaton and probably North Central into play and could very well knock out the two MIAC teams here.  Certainly Concordia-Moorhead. 

And what of Lousiana College?  The SOS just isn't there.  They obviously need to beat HSU to stay relevant in Pool C, but they need the RRO result even more.  Give the Cougars a RRO win and they'd be selected before Concordia-Moorhead here. 

[USee]

The other thing that is a possibility is that Wheaton's appearance on the board is a prelude to a further jump over Witt and OWU. It's unlikely but not unprecedented. It seems a bit unfair to see 2 loss teams jump 1 loss teams in other regions and not in the North. There may be a bit of Regional Committee arbitrage here. So seeing 3 west teams with 2 losses get in while none are considered in the North would be interesting. Interesting developments.

[USee]

Also, Wally, what happens if Kenyon loses to Denison and Witt gets the AQ (which should happen if the D3 powers do what's fair)? If Wheaton can jump OWU in the final secret squirrel regional ranking regalia, then we may see a scenario closer to what Keith outlined?

[lakeshore]

wow Wheaton really got nailed in the regional rankings...what gives?  I sense the committee is not done with these yet and once Wheaton's resume is compared with that of OWU and Witt more thoroughly we could very well see the jump Usee is talking about. 

[art76]

Wally,

I appreciate the thoroughness of the discussion you give to the process. I hope you plan to recalculate or recalibrate as needed after Saturday's "bubble" games are finished.

[wally_wabash]

Also, Wally, what happens if Kenyon loses to Denison and Witt gets the AQ (which should happen if the D3 powers do what's fair)? If Wheaton can jump OWU in the final secret squirrel regional ranking regalia, then we may see a scenario closer to what Keith outlined?

If Kenyon does lose to Denison, I think Witt gets the league's AQ, but I can say that with only about 4.5% certainty.  I'm giving up on trying to figure out how they arbirtrarily apply the already arbitrary tiebreak "rules".  But IF Kenyon lose and IF Witt wins and IF Witt gets the NCAC's ticket to the show, then You'd still have to see Wheaton magically jump over OWU.  IF that were to happen, then yes, you'd wind up with what Keith projected in his DD post this morning. 

[wally_wabash]

wow Wheaton really got nailed in the regional rankings...what gives?  I sense the committee is not done with these yet and once Wheaton's resume is compared with that of OWU and Witt more thoroughly we could very well see the jump Usee is talking about.

You guys might be right.  I certainly don't think anything is impossible as we've seen last minute changes here before.  The thing that gives me pause is that I don't know what could happen on Saturday, other than OWU or Witt losing, that changes what we already know about Witt/OWU/Wheaton/NCC.  Nobody is playing a ranked team, nobody is going to get significant positive SOS inertia from Saturday's game (Wheaton will actually take a decent hit)...I just don't know why, if the regional committee thinks or is harboring thoughts that Wheaton and/or NCC should be ranked ahead of Witt/OWU that they wouldn't have done it today.  Saturday's results (barring upsets) really shouldn't move the needle much here. 

[wally_wabash]

Wally,

I appreciate the thoroughness of the discussion you give to the process. I hope you plan to recalculate or recalibrate as needed after Saturday's "bubble" games are finished.

I probably will project the 32 sometime Saturday night/Sunday morning just to finish out this little journey that I've been on for a month or so now.  But really be sure to check out the full bracket projection that the gurus do here...that'll be the most complete picture that you'll get before the official bracket is announced on Sunday night. 

[wesleydad]

great job Wally et al.  excellent reading for those of us who like to follow the national scene and not just our own little world of d3. +1 to you.

[USee]

Wally,

I am not saying some mythical jump is probable, but it isn't unprecedented. We have seen it more than once. Why did Adrian get jumped by OWU in this weeks rankings? several teams jumped others in the east/west with similar results. From my discussions with coaches and people familiar with the Regional Committee's, those coaches know who the best teams are and really try to position them for success at the national table. I am not saying I like it (because each region seems to be ranking teams inconsistently) but I think its a reality. You will remember in 2008 when Wheaton jumped Wooster in the final rankings that no one saw. Both teams won their last game and somehow Wheaton got picked and Wooster stayed home, even though Wooster was ranked higher the week before and both teams had same records with similar results. Again, I don't count on it, but it has happened.