Pool C -- 2012

[hazzben]

Wally...excellent work.

There's still a lot to get played out this week. As Keith notes, several Regional Ranked teams finish against each other. Other Pool C candidates have challenges left.

Finally, it sucks that we don't get to see the final rankings, but it's important to keep in mind that even if everyone wins that we expect to win, SoS numbers will still shift and could affect those final Regional Rankings.

Can't wait for Saturday...and then Sunday!! Great time of year to be a D3 fan

[MonroviaCat]

PLU wins by jumping up over the MIAC losers from last week, but they really could have used Willamette getting ranked to make their candidacy a lock. 

I was just looking at some things and was kind of suprised that Willamette didn't crack the rankings.  They have the same record as Platville but a much higher SOS and a win against a team that is ranked (but not in their own region) in Hardin Simmons.    Platville has not beat a team with a winning record and Willamette has beat 2 teams with winning records (HSU and Whitworth).  So any thoughts on why Platville is ranked 9 in Region and Willamette doesn't make the list?  (and I'm a Linfield guy so I'm certainly not holding any unrealistic hopes for Willamette to make the playoffs or anything though I do think PLU should be a lock).

[K-Mack]

One other loser here I think is F&M.  F&M now has a 2-1 record vs RRO (Wabash is the only other Pool C-ish team out there with 2 wins vs. RRO) but did not jump Muhlenberg.

Because Muhlenberg beat F&M, 21-0. This is the correct call.

PLU wins by jumping up over the MIAC losers from last week, but they really could have used Willamette getting ranked to make their candidacy a lock.

I've definitely made this point, and after reading MonroviaCat's argument, Willamette might be getting a bit jobbed on this one.

And what of Lousiana College?  The SOS just isn't there.  They obviously need to beat HSU to stay relevant in Pool C, but they need the RRO result even more.  Give the Cougars a RRO win and they'd be selected before Concordia-Moorhead here.

Wildcats.

LC, though it played an ambitious schedule, is going to regret having two NAIAs early in the season. If it could have played a B-SC or a Millsaps and received the SoS boost from beating a six- or seven-win team, that would have helped.

Also actually winning the Wesley game would have too.

Re: Wheaton, I went into the numbers thinking the Thunder didn't really have a shot. Anecdotally I would take LC first, and maybe C-M, although Wheaton looks good every time I watch them (fourth qtr vs. IWU, much of the NCC game) and I wouldn't have a problem with them getting in.

Wheaton, while guaranteeing (basically) itself a win by playing North Park, also is going to go backwards in SoS, and probably enough to make the difference between it and the teams it was playing a negotiable one.

I don't know who to really endorse here. A lot of these two-loss teams who don't grade out definitively on the criteria are ones I'd like to see play in the postseason.

Also the NCAC needs to have one of its legit teams win the tiebreak.

[USee]

The biggest beef I have with Wheaton (my alma mater) is their scheduling. They have the ability to schedule WIAC teams which would significantly help their SOS most years. I understand (and agree to some degree) they don't need to schedule the UWW and Oshkosh type WIAC teams but I would think scheduling a middle of the pack WIAC team would seriously help their SOS (by virtue of OOWP) and prepare them for the CCIW season more so than Luther! So, while I hope they squeak in, the reality is they made their own bed through playing as well as scheduling and are now bystanders in the process.

[d-train]

PLU wins by jumping up over the MIAC losers from last week, but they really could have used Willamette getting ranked to make their candidacy a lock.

I've definitely made this point, and after reading MonroviaCat's argument, Willamette might be getting a bit jobbed on this one.

I too was hoping for Willamette to sneak in at #9 or 10 (to boost PLU's chances) and was thinking the HSU result might matter a bit more.  But the Bearcats are an ugly 1-2 over the past 3 weeks (barely getting that win).  Maybe the West raters are having a hard time with that.

I was also going to say that they seem to be suggesting that including teams down to 2nd place in a conference is plenty for a regional ranking.  But that doesn't really account for the MIAC schools, unless they are viewing them as MIAC 2a and 2b (just ahead of WIAC 2) because of the way that head-to-head ended?

[K-Mack]

wow Wheaton really got nailed in the regional rankings...what gives?  I sense the committee is not done with these yet and once Wheaton's resume is compared with that of OWU and Witt more thoroughly we could very well see the jump Usee is talking about.

You guys might be right.  I certainly don't think anything is impossible as we've seen last minute changes here before.  The thing that gives me pause is that I don't know what could happen on Saturday, other than OWU or Witt losing, that changes what we already know about Witt/OWU/Wheaton/NCC.  Nobody is playing a ranked team, nobody is going to get significant positive SOS inertia from Saturday's game (Wheaton will actually take a decent hit)...I just don't know why, if the regional committee thinks or is harboring thoughts that Wheaton and/or NCC should be ranked ahead of Witt/OWU that they wouldn't have done it today.  Saturday's results (barring upsets) really shouldn't move the needle much here.

What did it for me, re: Wheaton was the huge SoS difference (.558 to .511 OWU and .420 Witt), plus having beaten North Central while those two hadn't beaten any RROs. But then if those are the factors that allow an 8-2 to jump the 9-1s, those would also be the factors that get Wabash (.560, 2-0) above all three teams.

As Wally said, I think you can justify it any which way here.

The good news is there are other paths for all of these teams, based on what happens in the CCIW and NCAC on Saturday, so there's no guarantee any of this will come to pass.

[K-Mack]

PLU wins by jumping up over the MIAC losers from last week, but they really could have used Willamette getting ranked to make their candidacy a lock.

I've definitely made this point, and after reading MonroviaCat's argument, Willamette might be getting a bit jobbed on this one.

I too was hoping for Willamette to sneak in at #9 or 10 (to boost PLU's chances) and was thinking the HSU result might matter a bit more.  But the Bearcats are an ugly 1-2 over the past 3 weeks (barely getting that win).  Maybe the West raters are having a hard time with that.

I was also going to say that they seem to be suggesting that including teams down to 2nd place in a conference is plenty for a regional ranking.  But that doesn't really account for the MIAC schools, unless they are viewing them as MIAC 2a and 2b (just ahead of WIAC 2) because of the way that head-to-head ended?

Three Centennial teams deep, four NEFC teams ... I think it's strictly on the numbers, not conferences, at least in the three regions.

In the north, it sounds like 9-1 is going to trump 8-2 regardless.

[wally_wabash]

One other loser here I think is F&M.  F&M now has a 2-1 record vs RRO (Wabash is the only other Pool C-ish team out there with 2 wins vs. RRO) but did not jump Muhlenberg.

Because Muhlenberg beat F&M, 21-0. This is the correct call.

I hope I didn't come off as criticizing the Muhlenberg/F&M ranking.  2-loss Muhlenberg absolutely should be ranked ahead of 2-loss F&M.  F&M may have held out some hope that the RRO results they have banked would be enough to edge them in front of Muhlenberg which is why I pointed to them as a "loser" in today's rankings. 

MonroviaCat-

I'll echo what Keith has said about Willamette here.  Willamette looks better per the criteria than Platteville and Concordia-Moorhead.  I think they should be in that West top 10 somewhere.  That they aren't doesn't help PLU, but PLU's placement today puts them in a pretty good spot heading into Sunday.  I know that the Menlo game doesn't show up in the SOS or in the regional record anywhere, but I don't think PLU wants to lose that game.  There are some D3 results there on Menlo's schedule that could give the RAC something to rethink if PLU doesn't show well there.  The Lutes can solidify their spot atop the West tableau with a result that compares favorably to what Linfield and Wesley did against them. 

[K-Mack]

The biggest beef I have with Wheaton (my alma mater) is their scheduling. They have the ability to schedule WIAC teams which would significantly help their SOS most years. I understand (and agree to some degree) they don't need to schedule the UWW and Oshkosh type WIAC teams but I would think scheduling a middle of the pack WIAC team would seriously help their SOS (by virtue of OOWP) and prepare them for the CCIW season more so than Luther! So, while I hope they squeak in, the reality is they made their own bed through playing as well as scheduling and are now bystanders in the process.

They played Albion/UW-Platteville/Olivet in 2010-11 and Concordia (Wis.)/Bethel/Hope in 2008-09.

Benedictine/Albion/Luther is definitely not their best work.

Bethel, UW-Platteville and Wheaton would all have benefitted by winning a non-con game against one another this season. (Although by winning it, it might have knocked them from the regional rankings, which would lessen the benefit. but there's still SoS)

Mature and true:
"they made their own bed through playing as well as scheduling"

[MonroviaCat]

I too was hoping for Willamette to sneak in at #9 or 10 (to boost PLU's chances) and was thinking the HSU result might matter a bit more.  But the Bearcats are an ugly 1-2 over the past 3 weeks (barely getting that win).  Maybe the West raters are having a hard time with that.

I was also going to say that they seem to be suggesting that including teams down to 2nd place in a conference is plenty for a regional ranking.  But that doesn't really account for the MIAC schools, unless they are viewing them as MIAC 2a and 2b (just ahead of WIAC 2) because of the way that head-to-head ended?

Yeah--wanted to see Willamette there for PLU's sake and it would only bolster Linfield's #1 ranking (by adding another win over a RR team).

[MonroviaCat]

One other loser here I think is F&M.  F&M now has a 2-1 record vs RRO (Wabash is the only other Pool C-ish team out there with 2 wins vs. RRO) but did not jump Muhlenberg.

Because Muhlenberg beat F&M, 21-0. This is the correct call.

I hope I didn't come off as criticizing the Muhlenberg/F&M ranking.  2-loss Muhlenberg absolutely should be ranked ahead of 2-loss F&M.  F&M may have held out some hope that the RRO results they have banked would be enough to edge them in front of Muhlenberg which is why I pointed to them as a "loser" in today's rankings. 

MonroviaCat-

I'll echo what Keith has said about Willamette here.  Willamette looks better per the criteria than Platteville and Concordia-Moorhead.  I think they should be in that West top 10 somewhere.  That they aren't doesn't help PLU, but PLU's placement today puts them in a pretty good spot heading into Sunday.  I know that the Menlo game doesn't show up in the SOS or in the regional record anywhere, but I don't think PLU wants to lose that game.  There are some D3 results there on Menlo's schedule that could give the RAC something to rethink if PLU doesn't show well there.  The Lutes can solidify their spot atop the West tableau with a result that compares favorably to what Linfield and Wesley did against them.

Yeah--Menlo is a pretty good team this year---it would be an interesting test of the ranking committees implementation of the criteria if PLU did lose but I'd like to see the Lutes make the field so I'm pulling for them to win it (and I think they should).

[hazzben]

Bethel, UW-Platteville and Wheaton would all have benefitted by winning a non-con game against one another this season. (Although by winning it, it might have knocked them from the regional rankings, which would lessen the benefit. but there's still SoS)

True enough. Although I think Bethel scheduled Wartburg for just this reason. Most didn't expect the Knights to struggle like they have.

[smedindy]

Schedules are usually done a few years in advance for many teams so you never can tell if one team is going to be good (or bad) when you play them.

[K-Mack]

Schedules are usually done a few years in advance for many teams so you never can tell if one team is going to be good (or bad) when you play them.

True, but as to what Hazz is saying, Wartburg usually contends, so that was a safe bet.

[smedindy]

Schedules are usually done a few years in advance for many teams so you never can tell if one team is going to be good (or bad) when you play them.

True, but as to what Hazz is saying, Wartburg usually contends, so that was a safe bet.

Oh, I understand. Just saying that 'safe' bets sometimes aren't.