Pool C -- 2012

[K-Mack]

Schedules are usually done a few years in advance for many teams so you never can tell if one team is going to be good (or bad) when you play them.

True, but as to what Hazz is saying, Wartburg usually contends, so that was a safe bet.

Oh, I understand. Just saying that 'safe' bets sometimes aren't.

A better example might be someone who scheduled Oshkosh three years ago thinking it was getting a middling WIAC team and got KAPOWNateWaraSuckas!

[matblake]

KAPOWNateWaraSuckas!

That needs to be a Twitter hashtag.

[hazzben]

KAPOWNateWaraSuckas!

That needs to be a Twitter hashtag.

Yes it does!

If D3 were like our FBS cousins, this may have already become a Gagliardi Award campaign slogan 

[emma17]

Wally- You do great work and I appreciate your insight and your willingness to crunch the SOS numbers.

I'm interested in opinions on the idea of consideration of a team's largest loss to a D3 opponent.  So much is made of wins/losses and SOS.  Wins and losses are controllable, SOS not always as previously mentioned.  Teams like Bethel, Elmhurst, LA Coll, Willamette and OH Wes have lost D3 games by margins ranging from 28-37 points.  A 4-touchdown spread is a blow-out.  If one of the goals of Pool C selection is to ensure the best competition possible, a team that was beaten that badly has made a statement. 
Conversely, there are teams like Rowan, Huntingdon, Pac Luth, Concord-Mor, Witt, Wheaton and North Central (up for debate a bit) that have been in every game.  The spreads of loss for these teams is no greater than 14 points down to 3.  If I was on the selection committee, I'd want the greatest assurance that my Pool C selections will be competitive- and I'd look to their actual results on the field.       

[smedindy]

I don't know about comparing scores like that. Sometimes the ball rolls downhill and you just can't stop it. Sometimes you have a bad game. Elmhurst's blowout against North Central doesn't really say anything except Elmhurst had a horrible day and North Central probably played their best game. If they played again, it'd be competitive.

Elmhurst lost 44-10 to North Central who lost 35-21 to Wheaton. Of course, Elmhurst BEAT Wheaton.

[hazzben]

Wally- You do great work and I appreciate your insight and your willingness to crunch the SOS numbers.

I'm interested in opinions on the idea of consideration of a team's largest loss to a D3 opponent.  So much is made of wins/losses and SOS.  Wins and losses are controllable, SOS not always as previously mentioned.  Teams like Bethel, Elmhurst, LA Coll, Willamette and OH Wes have lost D3 games by margins ranging from 28-37 points.  A 4-touchdown spread is a blow-out.  If one of the goals of Pool C selection is to ensure the best competition possible, a team that was beaten that badly has made a statement. 
Conversely, there are teams like Rowan, Huntingdon, Pac Luth, Concord-Mor, Witt, Wheaton and North Central (up for debate a bit) that have been in every game.  The spreads of loss for these teams is no greater than 14 points down to 3.  If I was on the selection committee, I'd want the greatest assurance that my Pool C selections will be competitive- and I'd look to their actual results on the field.     

It's worth discussing.

But does considering margin of loss then bring margin of victory in the back door? Does it create a scenario where teams are encouraged to run up the score? I hate that sort of activity in the DI world.

And what should hurt you more. A bad loss to a very good team or a close loss to an average-to-bad team?

Bethel and North Central are a good case study here.

BU's losses are by 37 points and 7 points. NCC's are by 14 and 4. By the blowout loss criteria, Bethel is the worse candidate (note: I'm not really arguing here about who would win a H2H between the two teams).

But look closer. Bethel loses 37-0 to an undefeated, #4 ranked UST squad on the road and by 7 to a 2 loss St. Olaf team on the road, giving up the lead with 2 minutes left to play. North Central lost at home by 4 to a 4-5 UWL team (who also has several blowout losses on their resume if you're going to apply the criteria consistently) and by 14 at home to Wheaton. In the latter game, they were down by 21 points on two occasions in the 4th quarter and only drew within 14 by scoring a touchdown with 2 minutes left. So what does margin of loss really tell us about these two teams and their playoff worthiness?

To me, margin of loss and victory is only helpful when comparing common opponents between two teams with no H2H, also taking into consideration home v. away of the CO results. After that, there's just a lot of variables involved that make it a very slippery tool.

[MonroviaCat]

I don't know about comparing scores like that. Sometimes the ball rolls downhill and you just can't stop it. Sometimes you have a bad game. Elmhurst's blowout against North Central doesn't really say anything except Elmhurst had a horrible day and North Central probably played their best game. If they played again, it'd be competitive.

Elmhurst lost 44-10 to North Central who lost 35-21 to Wheaton. Of course, Elmhurst BEAT Wheaton.

Yeah--way too many reasons for a lopsided loss that do not necessarily indicate a team's quality.  Home vs Road, weather, coaches decision on when to bring reserve players into a game, and even when in the season a game was played. 

[USee]

I don't know about comparing scores like that. Sometimes the ball rolls downhill and you just can't stop it. Sometimes you have a bad game. Elmhurst's blowout against North Central doesn't really say anything except Elmhurst had a horrible day and North Central probably played their best game. If they played again, it'd be competitive.

Elmhurst lost 44-10 to North Central who lost 35-21 to Wheaton. Of course, Elmhurst BEAT Wheaton.

I'd be careful about "what if's" here Smed. I think NCC beats Elmhurst 10 out of 10 and 8 of those times by a similar margin. Elmhurst beat an average Augie team at home by scoring with 6 seconds left and beat a winless (in conference) Millikin in OT because Millikin fumbled at the 1 while going in for the winning TD. Their win over Wheaton was after giving up 600 yds in part because Wheaton had 2 assignment errors on 3rd and goal at the 2 and was stopped on 4th down and another assignment error that led to a blindside hit on the qb for a pick 6. Elmhurst is living large and deserves what they are getting because they won those games but when the playoffs arrive, we will all see the emperor has no clothes IMO.

[wally_wabash]

Wally- You do great work and I appreciate your insight and your willingness to crunch the SOS numbers.

I'm interested in opinions on the idea of consideration of a team's largest loss to a D3 opponent.  So much is made of wins/losses and SOS.  Wins and losses are controllable, SOS not always as previously mentioned.  Teams like Bethel, Elmhurst, LA Coll, Willamette and OH Wes have lost D3 games by margins ranging from 28-37 points.  A 4-touchdown spread is a blow-out.  If one of the goals of Pool C selection is to ensure the best competition possible, a team that was beaten that badly has made a statement. 
Conversely, there are teams like Rowan, Huntingdon, Pac Luth, Concord-Mor, Witt, Wheaton and North Central (up for debate a bit) that have been in every game.  The spreads of loss for these teams is no greater than 14 points down to 3.  If I was on the selection committee, I'd want the greatest assurance that my Pool C selections will be competitive- and I'd look to their actual results on the field.       

Oh no no no no.  We don't want to wade into MOVs as being indicative of much of anything when considering a season's worth of games and data.  If we have learned anything this year (and really, teams everywhere learn this one way or another every year) it is that every week in the season is a unique experience.  The ONLY time I would be even semi-comfortable looking at score margins in cherry-picked games would be for common opponents (a rarity when we get to one team per region at one time during the selection process) and even then I don't feel great about it.  I happen to think Ohio Wesleyan is better than Wittenberg at this moment.  The rankings don't reflect that, most people's gut feeling won't buy that, and it isn't supported by those teams' scores against their best common measuring stick (Wabash), but I think OWU is better.  OWU's score (zero) wasn't entirely representative of their offensive ability and Witt's score (24) I think over-represents their ability against Wabash.  Just my personal feeling from having watched those games and just one example of where common scores may not accurately represent teams' relative strength. 

I digress...I think it's dangerously shortsighted to pluck one game out of a ten game schedule and say these bums lost by 4 TDs; get 'em out of the tournament.  I mean where do you draw the line on what constitutes a "blowout"?  Is it 17...21...30?  Plus every game has it's own unique context.  How were points accumulated?  How were points NOT scored in some cases.  It's just a slippery slope and I think it's too hard to judge teams from different regions and without common opponents that way.  Here in the Pool C we all know these teams can lose.  They wouldn't be here otherwise.  I'm much more interested in who these teams have proven they can beat than I am who they lost to. 

[USee]

Good point Wally. An example of that is 2005 when Capital lost @ Mt Union 32-12 in the regular season and then played them in the playoffs @ Mt Union and led late before losing 17-14. The first game wasn't that competitive and the playoff game was a nail biter.

[@d3jason]

Another good example would be Wesley in 2005 losing 47-0 at Brockport. Beating undefeated Salisbury 63-28 the next week, defending Stagg Bowl runner up UMHB in the second round and not losing until the semis to UWW.

[emma17]

Another good example would be Wesley in 2005 losing 47-0 at Brockport. Beating undefeated Salisbury 63-28 the next week, defending Stagg Bowl runner up UMHB in the second round and not losing until the semis to UWW.

This is a good example.  However, the loss margin wouldn't be a sole determining factor. 

[smedindy]

I don't know about comparing scores like that. Sometimes the ball rolls downhill and you just can't stop it. Sometimes you have a bad game. Elmhurst's blowout against North Central doesn't really say anything except Elmhurst had a horrible day and North Central probably played their best game. If they played again, it'd be competitive.

Elmhurst lost 44-10 to North Central who lost 35-21 to Wheaton. Of course, Elmhurst BEAT Wheaton.

I'd be careful about "what if's" here Smed. I think NCC beats Elmhurst 10 out of 10 and 8 of those times by a similar margin. Elmhurst beat an average Augie team at home by scoring with 6 seconds left and beat a winless (in conference) Millikin in OT because Millikin fumbled at the 1 while going in for the winning TD. Their win over Wheaton was after giving up 600 yds in part because Wheaton had 2 assignment errors on 3rd and goal at the 2 and was stopped on 4th down and another assignment error that led to a blindside hit on the qb for a pick 6. Elmhurst is living large and deserves what they are getting because they won those games but when the playoffs arrive, we will all see the emperor has no clothes IMO.

You sure NC isn't the one with no clothes? They lost to a completely meh LaCrosse team and a Wheaton team that lost to Albion who lost to Benedictine that lost to Aurora. We could do this all day.

[USee]

Maybe. My point is really that Elmhurst is likely one and done with their defense. NCC may be right behind them. We will see

[shepherd]

Maybe. My point is really that Elmhurst is likely one and done with their defense. NCC may be right behind them. We will see

USEE - You had some great incites from your previous posts.

I was at the NCC Wheaton game and got to see behind the scenes.  I saw a lot of key players and positions of North Central players limping off the field.  Joey Michal's was taken out of the game with trainers working on his leg.  Maybe its not as bad as it appeared I don't know but if I saw that from Wheaton I would be worried. 

Second point about Wheaton defense.  The defense was beating themselves early in the season over pursuing too soon leaving gaps in the defense for runners to move to the open hole.  In no way did I see a Wheaton defense that was being overpowered.  They fixed the mistakes and it was no coincidence or luck what they did against NCC's running game.