Pool C -- 2012

[smedindy]

Well, Usee really "incited" me with his "insights"! 

[shepherd]

Well, Usee really "incited" me with his "insights"! 

Bad spelling and pain killers.

[smedindy]

Pat, et. al.

OWU DID play a regionally ranked team. Wabash was regionally ranked last week. I assume 'once ranked, always ranked' still holds.

[USee]

Awesome bracket and analysis from Pat, Keith, and the team on front page for Playoff projections.

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2012/week10-playoff-projection

Pat, a couple of questions:

I didn't see anywhere you addressed the NCAC tie breaker but Witt is your AQ. Is that just a plug until the air clears? Also, I really liked the way you broke the field up for travel and consistency. I certainly hope the committee uses this kind of flexibility (similar to last year). Why do you think there is such a discrepancy with the regional committees rankings of the teams? I am referring to the East and West, who have clearly placed good 2-loss teams in position over 1 loss teams with inferior criteria. It seems to me that if a team like Wheaton could be at the table to compare to Bethel, Conc Moorehead, etc they would have a decent shot at a bid (7-2, somewhere near a .535 SOS, 1-1 v RRO) but they are buried behind OWU and Witt.

Great analysis in any case.

[MonroviaCat]

Awesome bracket and analysis from Pat, Keith, and the team on front page for Playoff projections.

...
Great analysis in any case.

Agreed---looks pretty good.  And I think you are right that PLU drives to Linfield not only because it saves the flight, but because if they did try to avoid the conference rematch by sending them to CLU it would just be a non-conference rematch between CLU and PLU.  I guess if they really wanted to avoid first round rematches they could send PLU to MHB and St. Scholastica to Linfield and keep Huntington at CLU......but I think the Linfield/PLU rematch is most likely....

[emma17]

Awesome bracket and analysis from Pat, Keith, and the team on front page for Playoff projections.

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2012/week10-playoff-projection

Pat, a couple of questions:

I didn't see anywhere you addressed the NCAC tie breaker but Witt is your AQ. Is that just a plug until the air clears? Also, I really liked the way you broke the field up for travel and consistency. I certainly hope the committee uses this kind of flexibility (similar to last year). Why do you think there is such a discrepancy with the regional committees rankings of the teams? I am referring to the East and West, who have clearly placed good 2-loss teams in position over 1 loss teams with inferior criteria. It seems to me that if a team like Wheaton could be at the table to compare to Bethel, Conc Moorehead, etc they would have a decent shot at a bid (7-2, somewhere near a .535 SOS, 1-1 v RRO) but they are buried behind OWU and Witt.

Great analysis in any case.

Loss differential, properly used, easily weeds some of this out.  In the biggest game of the regular season for Bethel, which is the same as a playoff game, they lost to the #1 team in their conference by 37 points.  Bad game nothing, this was their playoff game, they knew it, and they got crushed.  Pull them off the board.  Ohio Wes- in the biggest game of their season- just like a playoff game, were beat by Wabash by 28 points- pull them off the board.  That leaves Conc Moor (lost to Bethel by a 2 point conversion) and Wheaton-in the biggest game of their regular season they beat the #1 team in their conference.
Loss differential isn't a sole determiner, but how do we justify Bethel and Oh Wes given what they did in the biggest games of their regular seasons?  Do you really write that off "as a bad game" when they both knew it was the biggest games of their seasons?  Use all the data out there.       

[Pat Coleman]

Awesome bracket and analysis from Pat, Keith, and the team on front page for Playoff projections.

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2012/week10-playoff-projection

Pat, a couple of questions:

I didn't see anywhere you addressed the NCAC tie breaker but Witt is your AQ. Is that just a plug until the air clears? Also, I really liked the way you broke the field up for travel and consistency. I certainly hope the committee uses this kind of flexibility (similar to last year). Why do you think there is such a discrepancy with the regional committees rankings of the teams? I am referring to the East and West, who have clearly placed good 2-loss teams in position over 1 loss teams with inferior criteria. It seems to me that if a team like Wheaton could be at the table to compare to Bethel, Conc Moorehead, etc they would have a decent shot at a bid (7-2, somewhere near a .535 SOS, 1-1 v RRO) but they are buried behind OWU and Witt.

Great analysis in any case.

It is a plug-in, basically. But I don't have an NCAC team getting an at-large bid so I felt plugging one team in would get it done.

I don't know why East/North ranks one way and West/South ranks another. I know East lost both of its co-chairs from last year so they may lack a little institutional knowledge.

[wally_wabash]

Awesome bracket and analysis from Pat, Keith, and the team on front page for Playoff projections.

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2012/week10-playoff-projection

Pat, a couple of questions:

I didn't see anywhere you addressed the NCAC tie breaker but Witt is your AQ. Is that just a plug until the air clears? Also, I really liked the way you broke the field up for travel and consistency. I certainly hope the committee uses this kind of flexibility (similar to last year). Why do you think there is such a discrepancy with the regional committees rankings of the teams? I am referring to the East and West, who have clearly placed good 2-loss teams in position over 1 loss teams with inferior criteria. It seems to me that if a team like Wheaton could be at the table to compare to Bethel, Conc Moorehead, etc they would have a decent shot at a bid (7-2, somewhere near a .535 SOS, 1-1 v RRO) but they are buried behind OWU and Witt.

Great analysis in any case.

Loss differential, properly used, easily weeds some of this out.  In the biggest game of the regular season for Bethel, which is the same as a playoff game, they lost to the #1 team in their conference by 37 points.  Bad game nothing, this was their playoff game, they knew it, and they got crushed.  Pull them off the board.  Ohio Wes- in the biggest game of their season- just like a playoff game, were beat by Wabash by 28 points- pull them off the board.  That leaves Conc Moor (lost to Bethel by a 2 point conversion) and Wheaton-in the biggest game of their regular season they beat the #1 team in their conference.
Loss differential isn't a sole determiner, but how do we justify Bethel and Oh Wes given what they did in the biggest games of their regular seasons?  Do you really write that off "as a bad game" when they both knew it was the biggest games of their seasons?  Use all the data out there.     

Heidelberg, in the biggest game of their season, got blown out.  Should we throw them out, too?  Point differentials, cherry picked from whatever game(s) you've arbitrarily decided are important, just don't tell a very accurate story. 

[emma17]

Awesome bracket and analysis from Pat, Keith, and the team on front page for Playoff projections.

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2012/week10-playoff-projection

Pat, a couple of questions:

I didn't see anywhere you addressed the NCAC tie breaker but Witt is your AQ. Is that just a plug until the air clears? Also, I really liked the way you broke the field up for travel and consistency. I certainly hope the committee uses this kind of flexibility (similar to last year). Why do you think there is such a discrepancy with the regional committees rankings of the teams? I am referring to the East and West, who have clearly placed good 2-loss teams in position over 1 loss teams with inferior criteria. It seems to me that if a team like Wheaton could be at the table to compare to Bethel, Conc Moorehead, etc they would have a decent shot at a bid (7-2, somewhere near a .535 SOS, 1-1 v RRO) but they are buried behind OWU and Witt.

Great analysis in any case.

Loss differential, properly used, easily weeds some of this out.  In the biggest game of the regular season for Bethel, which is the same as a playoff game, they lost to the #1 team in their conference by 37 points.  Bad game nothing, this was their playoff game, they knew it, and they got crushed.  Pull them off the board.  Ohio Wes- in the biggest game of their season- just like a playoff game, were beat by Wabash by 28 points- pull them off the board.  That leaves Conc Moor (lost to Bethel by a 2 point conversion) and Wheaton-in the biggest game of their regular season they beat the #1 team in their conference.
Loss differential isn't a sole determiner, but how do we justify Bethel and Oh Wes given what they did in the biggest games of their regular seasons?  Do you really write that off "as a bad game" when they both knew it was the biggest games of their seasons?  Use all the data out there.     

Heidelberg, in the biggest game of their season, got blown out.  Should we throw them out, too?  Point differentials, cherry picked from whatever game(s) you've arbitrarily decided are important, just don't tell a very accurate story.

They tell a very important part of a story.  I'm not saying they tell the whole story.  If you want Pool C to consist of teams that have a reasonable chance of playing with the best teams in the country (presumably the Pool A teams)- don't look at SOS- look at how they actually played the best teams on their regular season schedule.   
I'm not "cherry picking" a game, I'm picking the biggest game of each team's regular season- which to some degree can be indicative of how they might perform in the next biggest game of their season- a playoff game.  If the decision is between two teams, each with two losses- then I look at how they performed against the best team on their schedules.  I'd rather choose on their actual performance criteria than base it on the luck of the SOS draw.   

[wally_wabash]

Awesome bracket and analysis from Pat, Keith, and the team on front page for Playoff projections.

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2012/week10-playoff-projection

Pat, a couple of questions:

I didn't see anywhere you addressed the NCAC tie breaker but Witt is your AQ. Is that just a plug until the air clears? Also, I really liked the way you broke the field up for travel and consistency. I certainly hope the committee uses this kind of flexibility (similar to last year). Why do you think there is such a discrepancy with the regional committees rankings of the teams? I am referring to the East and West, who have clearly placed good 2-loss teams in position over 1 loss teams with inferior criteria. It seems to me that if a team like Wheaton could be at the table to compare to Bethel, Conc Moorehead, etc they would have a decent shot at a bid (7-2, somewhere near a .535 SOS, 1-1 v RRO) but they are buried behind OWU and Witt.

Great analysis in any case.

Loss differential, properly used, easily weeds some of this out.  In the biggest game of the regular season for Bethel, which is the same as a playoff game, they lost to the #1 team in their conference by 37 points.  Bad game nothing, this was their playoff game, they knew it, and they got crushed.  Pull them off the board.  Ohio Wes- in the biggest game of their season- just like a playoff game, were beat by Wabash by 28 points- pull them off the board.  That leaves Conc Moor (lost to Bethel by a 2 point conversion) and Wheaton-in the biggest game of their regular season they beat the #1 team in their conference.
Loss differential isn't a sole determiner, but how do we justify Bethel and Oh Wes given what they did in the biggest games of their regular seasons?  Do you really write that off "as a bad game" when they both knew it was the biggest games of their seasons?  Use all the data out there.     

Heidelberg, in the biggest game of their season, got blown out.  Should we throw them out, too?  Point differentials, cherry picked from whatever game(s) you've arbitrarily decided are important, just don't tell a very accurate story.

They tell a very important part of a story.  I'm not saying they tell the whole story.  If you want Pool C to consist of teams that have a reasonable chance of playing with the best teams in the country (presumably the Pool A teams)- don't look at SOS- look at how they actually played the best teams on their regular season schedule.   
I'm not "cherry picking" a game, I'm picking the biggest game of each team's regular season- which to some degree can be indicative of how they might perform in the next biggest game of their season- a playoff game.  If the decision is between two teams, each with two losses- then I look at how they performed against the best team on their schedules.  I'd rather choose on their actual performance criteria than base it on the luck of the SOS draw.   

Maybe the matchup stinks.  Maybe the conditions were terrible which could also lend istelf to a deceptively close score (see the UMU/ONU game last year).  Should we reward a team for losing a game to a good team by a close score because the game was in a monsoon?  Maybe players were injured.  Do you account for stuff like that, or do you just assume that because a team lost by a certain margin one time that they aren't playoff material?  It's a really, really arbitrary analysis in my view.  Dangerously so. 

[MonroviaCat]

Awesome bracket and analysis from Pat, Keith, and the team on front page for Playoff projections.

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2012/week10-playoff-projection

Pat, a couple of questions:

I didn't see anywhere you addressed the NCAC tie breaker but Witt is your AQ. Is that just a plug until the air clears? Also, I really liked the way you broke the field up for travel and consistency. I certainly hope the committee uses this kind of flexibility (similar to last year). Why do you think there is such a discrepancy with the regional committees rankings of the teams? I am referring to the East and West, who have clearly placed good 2-loss teams in position over 1 loss teams with inferior criteria. It seems to me that if a team like Wheaton could be at the table to compare to Bethel, Conc Moorehead, etc they would have a decent shot at a bid (7-2, somewhere near a .535 SOS, 1-1 v RRO) but they are buried behind OWU and Witt.

Great analysis in any case.

Loss differential, properly used, easily weeds some of this out. In the biggest game of the regular season for Bethel, which is the same as a playoff game, they lost to the #1 team in their conference by 37 points.  Bad game nothing, this was their playoff game, they knew it, and they got crushed.  Pull them off the board.  Ohio Wes- in the biggest game of their season- just like a playoff game, were beat by Wabash by 28 points- pull them off the board.  That leaves Conc Moor (lost to Bethel by a 2 point conversion) and Wheaton-in the biggest game of their regular season they beat the #1 team in their conference.
Loss differential isn't a sole determiner, but how do we justify Bethel and Oh Wes given what they did in the biggest games of their regular seasons?  Do you really write that off "as a bad game" when they both knew it was the biggest games of their seasons?  Use all the data out there.     

So, if I'm reading this correctly,  pull Bethel off the board because they lost big to St. Thomas leave Concordia on the Board because they lost to Bethel in a close one?  Huh?

[short]

I choose NOT to look at the Oberlin game (too many things just didn't go Wabash's way) but please do look at the OWU game.  If you look at SOS #'s and Wins vs RRO Wabash's look pretty good!

[emma17]

Awesome bracket and analysis from Pat, Keith, and the team on front page for Playoff projections.

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2012/week10-playoff-projection

Pat, a couple of questions:

I didn't see anywhere you addressed the NCAC tie breaker but Witt is your AQ. Is that just a plug until the air clears? Also, I really liked the way you broke the field up for travel and consistency. I certainly hope the committee uses this kind of flexibility (similar to last year). Why do you think there is such a discrepancy with the regional committees rankings of the teams? I am referring to the East and West, who have clearly placed good 2-loss teams in position over 1 loss teams with inferior criteria. It seems to me that if a team like Wheaton could be at the table to compare to Bethel, Conc Moorehead, etc they would have a decent shot at a bid (7-2, somewhere near a .535 SOS, 1-1 v RRO) but they are buried behind OWU and Witt.

Great analysis in any case.

Loss differential, properly used, easily weeds some of this out.  In the biggest game of the regular season for Bethel, which is the same as a playoff game, they lost to the #1 team in their conference by 37 points.  Bad game nothing, this was their playoff game, they knew it, and they got crushed.  Pull them off the board.  Ohio Wes- in the biggest game of their season- just like a playoff game, were beat by Wabash by 28 points- pull them off the board.  That leaves Conc Moor (lost to Bethel by a 2 point conversion) and Wheaton-in the biggest game of their regular season they beat the #1 team in their conference.
Loss differential isn't a sole determiner, but how do we justify Bethel and Oh Wes given what they did in the biggest games of their regular seasons?  Do you really write that off "as a bad game" when they both knew it was the biggest games of their seasons?  Use all the data out there.     

Heidelberg, in the biggest game of their season, got blown out.  Should we throw them out, too?  Point differentials, cherry picked from whatever game(s) you've arbitrarily decided are important, just don't tell a very accurate story.

They tell a very important part of a story.  I'm not saying they tell the whole story.  If you want Pool C to consist of teams that have a reasonable chance of playing with the best teams in the country (presumably the Pool A teams)- don't look at SOS- look at how they actually played the best teams on their regular season schedule.   
I'm not "cherry picking" a game, I'm picking the biggest game of each team's regular season- which to some degree can be indicative of how they might perform in the next biggest game of their season- a playoff game.  If the decision is between two teams, each with two losses- then I look at how they performed against the best team on their schedules.  I'd rather choose on their actual performance criteria than base it on the luck of the SOS draw.   

Maybe the matchup stinks.  Maybe the conditions were terrible which could also lend istelf to a deceptively close score (see the UMU/ONU game last year).  Should we reward a team for losing a game to a good team by a close score because the game was in a monsoon?  Maybe players were injured.  Do you account for stuff like that, or do you just assume that because a team lost by a certain margin one time that they aren't playoff material?  It's a really, really arbitrary analysis in my view.  Dangerously so.

Wally, what part of your argument doesn't apply to SOS? 
Every team plays for the conference championship - every team knows who the top conference team to beat is. Judge me by how I performed in the biggest game and not by how many games my opponents and their opponents won.

[smedindy]

It's pure horse-hockey to do the MOV thing and totally ignore the entire body of work.

Do you really think that each and every team knows THE TEAM before the games are played? Did anyone ever think Kenyon or Ohio Wesleyan would be in title contention for the NCAC when the season started? NO! Some conferences don't know the story they're telling until more than halfway through the season.

Here's the data point that KILLS this argument:

9/22 - UW - Whitewater 34, UW - Stevens Point 7
10/27 - UW - Stevens Point 17, UW - Whitewater 14

*drops mic*

[emma17]

Awesome bracket and analysis from Pat, Keith, and the team on front page for Playoff projections.

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2012/week10-playoff-projection

Pat, a couple of questions:

I didn't see anywhere you addressed the NCAC tie breaker but Witt is your AQ. Is that just a plug until the air clears? Also, I really liked the way you broke the field up for travel and consistency. I certainly hope the committee uses this kind of flexibility (similar to last year). Why do you think there is such a discrepancy with the regional committees rankings of the teams? I am referring to the East and West, who have clearly placed good 2-loss teams in position over 1 loss teams with inferior criteria. It seems to me that if a team like Wheaton could be at the table to compare to Bethel, Conc Moorehead, etc they would have a decent shot at a bid (7-2, somewhere near a .535 SOS, 1-1 v RRO) but they are buried behind OWU and Witt.

Great analysis in any case.

Loss differential, properly used, easily weeds some of this out. In the biggest game of the regular season for Bethel, which is the same as a playoff game, they lost to the #1 team in their conference by 37 points.  Bad game nothing, this was their playoff game, they knew it, and they got crushed.  Pull them off the board.  Ohio Wes- in the biggest game of their season- just like a playoff game, were beat by Wabash by 28 points- pull them off the board.  That leaves Conc Moor (lost to Bethel by a 2 point conversion) and Wheaton-in the biggest game of their regular season they beat the #1 team in their conference.
Loss differential isn't a sole determiner, but how do we justify Bethel and Oh Wes given what they did in the biggest games of their regular seasons?  Do you really write that off "as a bad game" when they both knew it was the biggest games of their seasons?  Use all the data out there.     

So, if I'm reading this correctly,  pull Bethel off the board because they lost big to St. Thomas leave Concordia on the Board because they lost to Bethel in a close one?  Huh?

Absolutely. They have equal records. The game between them clearly could go either way. Based on actual performance, which of these teams is most likely to give a strong opponent a good game?  Apparently you would prefer to rely on SOS, I prefer to rely on actual performance against a very good team- St Thomas.