Pool C -- 2012

[Pat Coleman]

The NCAC office broke down tiebreaker scenarios:
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2012/11/09/north-coast-athletic-conference-tiebreakers/

[smedindy]

Awesome bracket and analysis from Pat, Keith, and the team on front page for Playoff projections.

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2012/week10-playoff-projection

Pat, a couple of questions:

I didn't see anywhere you addressed the NCAC tie breaker but Witt is your AQ. Is that just a plug until the air clears? Also, I really liked the way you broke the field up for travel and consistency. I certainly hope the committee uses this kind of flexibility (similar to last year). Why do you think there is such a discrepancy with the regional committees rankings of the teams? I am referring to the East and West, who have clearly placed good 2-loss teams in position over 1 loss teams with inferior criteria. It seems to me that if a team like Wheaton could be at the table to compare to Bethel, Conc Moorehead, etc they would have a decent shot at a bid (7-2, somewhere near a .535 SOS, 1-1 v RRO) but they are buried behind OWU and Witt.

Great analysis in any case.

Loss differential, properly used, easily weeds some of this out. In the biggest game of the regular season for Bethel, which is the same as a playoff game, they lost to the #1 team in their conference by 37 points.  Bad game nothing, this was their playoff game, they knew it, and they got crushed.  Pull them off the board.  Ohio Wes- in the biggest game of their season- just like a playoff game, were beat by Wabash by 28 points- pull them off the board.  That leaves Conc Moor (lost to Bethel by a 2 point conversion) and Wheaton-in the biggest game of their regular season they beat the #1 team in their conference.
Loss differential isn't a sole determiner, but how do we justify Bethel and Oh Wes given what they did in the biggest games of their regular seasons?  Do you really write that off "as a bad game" when they both knew it was the biggest games of their seasons?  Use all the data out there.     

So, if I'm reading this correctly,  pull Bethel off the board because they lost big to St. Thomas leave Concordia on the Board because they lost to Bethel in a close one?  Huh?

Absolutely. They have equal records. The game between them clearly could go either way. Based on actual performance, which of these teams is most likely to give a strong opponent a good game?  Apparently you would prefer to rely on SOS, I prefer to rely on actual performance against a very good team- St Thomas.

I prefer not to cherry pick my data points when doing an analysis. If I take results against a team, say, Gustavus as my data points then I see Bethel as better than St. Thomas.

[emma17]

It's pure horse-hockey to do the MOV thing and totally ignore the entire body of work.

Here's the data point that KILLS this argument:

9/22 - UW - Whitewater 34, UW - Stevens Point 7
10/27 - UW - Stevens Point 17, UW - Whitewater 14

*drops mic*

Huh?  Did somebody say "totally ignore the entire body of work"? 
It helps to argue the actual point.

[emma17]

Awesome bracket and analysis from Pat, Keith, and the team on front page for Playoff projections.

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2012/week10-playoff-projection

Pat, a couple of questions:

I didn't see anywhere you addressed the NCAC tie breaker but Witt is your AQ. Is that just a plug until the air clears? Also, I really liked the way you broke the field up for travel and consistency. I certainly hope the committee uses this kind of flexibility (similar to last year). Why do you think there is such a discrepancy with the regional committees rankings of the teams? I am referring to the East and West, who have clearly placed good 2-loss teams in position over 1 loss teams with inferior criteria. It seems to me that if a team like Wheaton could be at the table to compare to Bethel, Conc Moorehead, etc they would have a decent shot at a bid (7-2, somewhere near a .535 SOS, 1-1 v RRO) but they are buried behind OWU and Witt.

Great analysis in any case.

Loss differential, properly used, easily weeds some of this out. In the biggest game of the regular season for Bethel, which is the same as a playoff game, they lost to the #1 team in their conference by 37 points.  Bad game nothing, this was their playoff game, they knew it, and they got crushed.  Pull them off the board.  Ohio Wes- in the biggest game of their season- just like a playoff game, were beat by Wabash by 28 points- pull them off the board.  That leaves Conc Moor (lost to Bethel by a 2 point conversion) and Wheaton-in the biggest game of their regular season they beat the #1 team in their conference.
Loss differential isn't a sole determiner, but how do we justify Bethel and Oh Wes given what they did in the biggest games of their regular seasons?  Do you really write that off "as a bad game" when they both knew it was the biggest games of their seasons?  Use all the data out there.     

So, if I'm reading this correctly,  pull Bethel off the board because they lost big to St. Thomas leave Concordia on the Board because they lost to Bethel in a close one?  Huh?

Absolutely. They have equal records. The game between them clearly could go either way. Based on actual performance, which of these teams is most likely to give a strong opponent a good game?  Apparently you would prefer to rely on SOS, I prefer to rely on actual performance against a very good team- St Thomas.

I prefer not to cherry pick my data points when doing an analysis. If I take results against a team, say, Gustavus as my data points then I see Bethel as better than St. Thomas.

What does Gustavus have to do with this?  Again, the committee is trying to decide between two teams w equal records. In this case both play in the same conference. IMO I put significantly more weight in their performance against the best team in their conference than I do SOS.

[MonroviaCat]

Awesome bracket and analysis from Pat, Keith, and the team on front page for Playoff projections.

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2012/week10-playoff-projection

Pat, a couple of questions:

I didn't see anywhere you addressed the NCAC tie breaker but Witt is your AQ. Is that just a plug until the air clears? Also, I really liked the way you broke the field up for travel and consistency. I certainly hope the committee uses this kind of flexibility (similar to last year). Why do you think there is such a discrepancy with the regional committees rankings of the teams? I am referring to the East and West, who have clearly placed good 2-loss teams in position over 1 loss teams with inferior criteria. It seems to me that if a team like Wheaton could be at the table to compare to Bethel, Conc Moorehead, etc they would have a decent shot at a bid (7-2, somewhere near a .535 SOS, 1-1 v RRO) but they are buried behind OWU and Witt.

Great analysis in any case.

Loss differential, properly used, easily weeds some of this out. In the biggest game of the regular season for Bethel, which is the same as a playoff game, they lost to the #1 team in their conference by 37 points.  Bad game nothing, this was their playoff game, they knew it, and they got crushed.  Pull them off the board.  Ohio Wes- in the biggest game of their season- just like a playoff game, were beat by Wabash by 28 points- pull them off the board.  That leaves Conc Moor (lost to Bethel by a 2 point conversion) and Wheaton-in the biggest game of their regular season they beat the #1 team in their conference.
Loss differential isn't a sole determiner, but how do we justify Bethel and Oh Wes given what they did in the biggest games of their regular seasons?  Do you really write that off "as a bad game" when they both knew it was the biggest games of their seasons?  Use all the data out there.     

So, if I'm reading this correctly,  pull Bethel off the board because they lost big to St. Thomas leave Concordia on the Board because they lost to Bethel in a close one?  Huh?

Absolutely. They have equal records. The game between them clearly could go either way. Based on actual performance, which of these teams is most likely to give a strong opponent a good game?  Apparently you would prefer to rely on SOS, I prefer to rely on actual performance against a very good team- St Thomas.

I get what you are saying (I think) but I just don't think ignoring a head to head matchup make much sense even if it was a close game.  I still think there are way too many factors that affect scores that trying to use score differential vs. common opponents doesn't work out.  Perhaps as a tie breaker where everything else is pretty much the same....but in the case of Bethel and Concordia Moorhead-- they played each other and one team won (though barely).

[Bishop#1fan]

Those tie-breaker posts r about as Witt bias as you can posiblly get!!!!!...This is a joke right?!!!!

Kenyon all do respect needs to take a seat....shouldn't even be in the conversation!!!!!

OWU beats CM in Pitt...totally out ranks Capital and Chicago that Witt played.....and owu beat Kenyon.....

It has to be a strong arm from the NCAA NOT TO PAY for OWU to travel to the game because of the 500 mile radius!!!!!

[smedindy]

It's pure horse-hockey to do the MOV thing and totally ignore the entire body of work.

Here's the data point that KILLS this argument:

9/22 - UW - Whitewater 34, UW - Stevens Point 7
10/27 - UW - Stevens Point 17, UW - Whitewater 14

*drops mic*

Huh?  Did somebody say "totally ignore the entire body of work"? 
It helps to argue the actual point.

No, it doesn't.

Again, slowly...

One single data point is useless. Gustavus IS germaine in your scenario, it's a common H2H opponent. And if Bethel played St. Thomas again, it could be a different ball game. See above, which illustrates my point clearly.

[smedindy]

Those tie-breaker posts r about as Witt bias as you can posiblly get!!!!!...This is a joke right?!!!!

Kenyon all do respect needs to take a seat....shouldn't even be in the conversation!!!!!

OWU beats CM in Pitt...totally out ranks Capital and Chicago that Witt played.....and owu beat Kenyon.....

It has to be a strong arm from the NCAA NOT TO PAY for OWU to travel to the game because of the 500 mile radius!!!!!

Oh, come on now. You cannot blame Kenyon for this. They didn't write the scenarios. The NCAA doesn't care at all who makes it. And OWU would probably be on the bus to Heidelberg or with their low SOS instead of hosting Adrian. The 500-mile radius isn't much of a factor in OWU's region since a lot of teams are nearby.

You can either blame the coaches that wrote this tiebreaker that was a little sketchy, or blame yourself for losing to Wabash.

[Pat Coleman]

Those tie-breaker posts r about as Witt bias as you can posiblly get!!!!!...This is a joke right?!!!!

Kenyon all do respect needs to take a seat....shouldn't even be in the conversation!!!!!

OWU beats CM in Pitt...totally out ranks Capital and Chicago that Witt played.....and owu beat Kenyon.....

It has to be a strong arm from the NCAA NOT TO PAY for OWU to travel to the game because of the 500 mile radius!!!!!

Oh, come on now. You cannot blame Kenyon for this. They didn't write the scenarios. The NCAA doesn't care at all who makes it. And OWU would probably be on the bus to Heidelberg or with their low SOS instead of hosting Adrian. The 500-mile radius isn't much of a factor in OWU's region since a lot of teams are nearby.

You can either blame the coaches that wrote this tiebreaker that was a little sketchy, or blame yourself for losing to Wabash.

Bishops#1Fan -- welcome to the board but you have to learn about the NCAA system before you throw around stuff like that. OWU would NEVER have a problem with the 500-mile radius IN ANY SPORT because Ohio is practically the epicenter of Division III.

[K-Mack]

Not going to quote (or read) the entire thing, but to a degree I support emma17 in this. I see the other side too, with the Wesley-Brockport example and the 'one bad day doesn't wipe out the other 9' arguments.

IMO, though, Pool C should primarily be reprieve for teams who would have gone undefeated/earned the AQ if not for being squeezed by one single result. And to be honest, Cortland State losing to Rowan in overtime and being 9-1 in (07 or whatever year it was) should be an automatic Pool C, but the criteria favored teams who had been blown out instead. I think there is a difference between being one play away from conference champion and one day away from conference champion.

That said, I don't have a great suggestion for how to apply this (in poll voting, I use three breakdowns, was it a blowout (21+), 8-20 points (2-3 scores) or a game that could have gone either way, and I usually look at midway or early in the fourth quarter, just so late scores don't skew my thinking) and I think it also runs concurrent to my logic in a discussion with USee about home and road wins each being just "wins" so I'll just leave it at that:

There is a difference between being one play away from conference champion and one day away from conference champion.

[hazzben]

Absolutely. They have equal records. The game between them clearly could go either way. Based on actual performance, which of these teams is most likely to give a strong opponent a good game?  Apparently you would prefer to rely on SOS, I prefer to rely on actual performance against a very good team- St Thomas.

Ok, I'll bite.

Bethel lost badly to UST on the road. They got beat. But some weird things made the score skewed (punt bounces off a blockers leg on UST's second possession and they recover on the 10 & score when it could have still been 0 - 0, etc.).

Several weeks later Concordia loses at home to UST. The loss is closer than the Bethel game, but UST is also playing without more than a half dozen starters - out due to injury - who played against Bethel. UST was crazy banged up at that point and still won handily on a long road trip. And even per Keith's criteria, UST was up by 21 until late in the 4th.

Bottom line, like everyone else is saying, there are lots of variables, too many in fact. Even just the way teams A and B may match up differently with team C affects things.

[MonroviaCat]

I'm interested in opinions on the idea of consideration of a team's largest loss to a D3 opponent.

Mission accomplished

[hazzben]

There is a difference between being one play away from conference champion and one day away from conference champion.

The issue still stands though. Let's say Team A and Team B are the last legit one loss teams on the board for the final Pool C slot. Both lost to a RRO.

If team A is 9-1 and lost 48-10 at home and Team B is 9-1 and lost 27-24 in OT on the road emma's logic is that Team B gets the bid. MOV must be considered. But what if Team A lost to a final 4 caliber team and Team B lost to the Pool A winner of a fairly week conference. We've all seen the gap between the top 2-6 teams in D3 in a given year and the 35th best. It can get ugly real fast. What if Team A had their QB go down mid 2nd quarter or Team B knocked the other teams QB out of the game. The variables go on and on.

What initially looks like Team A being a day away and Team B being a play away just isn't that cut and dry.

Not to mention, this year we are talking about bubble squads that are either one loss teams with really weak SoS numbers or two loss teams. None of these two loss teams can claim to have been a play away from the playoffs.

[wally_wabash]

Those tie-breaker posts r about as Witt bias as you can posiblly get!!!!!...This is a joke right?!!!!

Kenyon all do respect needs to take a seat....shouldn't even be in the conversation!!!!!

OWU beats CM in Pitt...totally out ranks Capital and Chicago that Witt played.....and owu beat Kenyon.....

It has to be a strong arm from the NCAA NOT TO PAY for OWU to travel to the game because of the 500 mile radius!!!!!

No, it isn't Witt biased.  These are the rules that have been in place in the NCAC for a long, long time.  There weren't made up on the fly last week. 

I'm not sure how OWU fits into the 500 mile travel rule here either.  Here's the list of teams that OWU could travel to (or vice versa) based on the current D3football.com projection:

Mount Union
Adrian
Wittenberg
Concordia-Chicago
Heidelberg
North Central
Franklin
Waynesburg
Elmhurst
Washington & Lee
USAC champion
Lake Forest
Johns Hopkins
Widener
Hobart
SUNY Cortland

That's half the field.  They can find a place for OWU to not fly to. 

[Bishop#1fan]

Ok...first....I wasn't blaming Kenyon for anything....infact...if you RE-READ I gave them kudos for a good season....Second I do realize that Ohio and D3's epicenter......instead of stating the obvious answer the SOS on OWU and WItt!!!!!.....your going to disagree that beating Carnegie Mellon in Pitt is not bigger than Witt beating Capital and Chicago?!!!!....Yeah lets get back to this calculation...

Thanks for the welcome....

Also how do you bring a team in with a 6-3 overall record decides the tie-breaker of  two teams with a 8-1 record overall and tied for first?!!!!!!....seriously?!!!!!.......what ever happen to simply the best record wins and if the top 2 end up in a tie at the end....split the div title or play aa tie breaker game.....not hard at all