Pool C -- 2012

[smedindy]

Emma,

Let me make this clear. You don't know what the conference championship game will be in Week 1, Week 4, or Week 7. You may think you know, but you don't know for sure.

[emma17]

I'd take St. Olaf before OWU.   Better SOS, common opponent DePauw was dispatched by the Oles 31-10 while the Bishops would have won by 1 without a last minute field goal.

AND OWU lost by 28 points to the best team on their schedule.   

[emma17]

Emma,

Let me make this clear. You don't know what the conference championship game will be in Week 1, Week 4, or Week 7. You may think you know, but you don't know for sure.

You're right Smed.  Bethel had not idea St Thomas was such an important game.  OWU had no idea Wabash was such an important game.  Elmhurst had no idea NCC was such an important game.  Willamette had no idea Linfield was such an important game.   

[smedindy]

That team also lost to a team OWU beat 34-7 just last week. That team also lost to a team OWU beat 29-17 (with a key injury to its QB at the half).

Comparing scores? Hah.

[smedindy]

Emma,

Let me make this clear. You don't know what the conference championship game will be in Week 1, Week 4, or Week 7. You may think you know, but you don't know for sure.

You're right Smed.  Bethel had not idea St Thomas was such an important game.  OWU had no idea Wabash was such an important game.  Elmhurst had no idea NCC was such an important game.  Willamette had no idea Linfield was such an important game.   

If OWU played Wabash in week 2, it wouldn't have been a big deal, really, that Wabash beat them 28-0. Could Elmhurst have REALLY known that they would only lose to North Central, given their past in the CCIW?

[HScoach]

If Witt gets the AQ, OWU has to be stacked up against the other "C" teams and they don't look that great against them. They'll be third in line in the North probably, maybe 4th if the North re-does their RRs before the selection. They have to get to the table first, then be compared against two-loss teams (probably) with excellent credentials.

It's tricky, but that's the breaks.

And to be honest, I don't think OWU (or Witt) are better than Heidelberg, Elmhurst, or Wheaton. They may be equal to Rowan but Rowan has a better at-large resume. They're probably not as good as Bethel or C-M or PLU or Huntingdon (and the Hawks' golf coach may go on a ramage if a very good Huntingdon team doesn't make it  ) They're probably not as good as Louisiana College. So 9-1 for OWU and Witt in a weak-ish NCAC that had a bad record against the UAA and other conferences and saw it's best team lose an inexplicable game (Allegheny) and another where they under-estimated a decent opponent (Oberlin with Mandel is decent) to me smells like a one-bid league.

I agree 100%.   Even in the best of years, the NCAC is barely worthy of being a 2 team league.  This year it looks like they barely warrant their AQ.

[wally_wabash]

I'd take St. Olaf before OWU.   Better SOS, common opponent DePauw was dispatched by the Oles 31-10 while the Bishops would have won by 1 without a last minute field goal.

AND OWU lost by 28 points to the best team on their schedule.

You should let the North region RAC know that...they seem to have completely forgotten. 

[smedindy]

If Witt gets the AQ, OWU has to be stacked up against the other "C" teams and they don't look that great against them. They'll be third in line in the North probably, maybe 4th if the North re-does their RRs before the selection. They have to get to the table first, then be compared against two-loss teams (probably) with excellent credentials.

It's tricky, but that's the breaks.

And to be honest, I don't think OWU (or Witt) are better than Heidelberg, Elmhurst, or Wheaton. They may be equal to Rowan but Rowan has a better at-large resume. They're probably not as good as Bethel or C-M or PLU or Huntingdon (and the Hawks' golf coach may go on a ramage if a very good Huntingdon team doesn't make it  ) They're probably not as good as Louisiana College. So 9-1 for OWU and Witt in a weak-ish NCAC that had a bad record against the UAA and other conferences and saw it's best team lose an inexplicable game (Allegheny) and another where they under-estimated a decent opponent (Oberlin with Mandel is decent) to me smells like a one-bid league.

I agree 100%.   Even in the best of years, the NCAC is barely worthy of being a 2 team league.  This year it looks like they barely warrant their AQ.

I disagree based on the traditional strength of Wittenberg. Not everyone is the OAC, as you always forget.

[smedindy]

I'd take St. Olaf before OWU.   Better SOS, common opponent DePauw was dispatched by the Oles 31-10 while the Bishops would have won by 1 without a last minute field goal.

AND OWU lost by 28 points to the best team on their schedule.

You should let the North region RAC know that...they seem to have completely forgotten.

But they lost TWICE!! 

[Pat Coleman]

About St. Olaf -- I wasn't surprised they weren't in the regional rankings this week but they will be Saturday night with a win. If they don't win Saturday night, St. Olaf discussion is moot.

[art76]

What would be wrong with a coin flip in this case after tomorrow's games if needed?

Plus coin flips are hard to do when there is a 3-way tie. I don't have a 3-sided coin to use and it isn't fair to do 2 teams first, leaving the third team only facing one elimination instead of two. The probability of the winner of the first flip also winning the second is significantly lower...

Statistically, whenever you flip a coin the results will eventually even out to a 50% chance - regardless how many times you flip it. It may "seem" like the team that won the first flip doesn't have as good a chance on the second flip, but they do. Really.

[AO]

About St. Olaf -- I wasn't surprised they weren't in the regional rankings this week but they will be Saturday night with a win. If they don't win Saturday night, St. Olaf discussion is moot.

If Olaf figured out a way to stop Ayrton Scott and Augsburg the criteria might have supported 4 teams from the MIAC getting bids.

[emma17]

That team also lost to a team OWU beat 34-7 just last week. That team also lost to a team OWU beat 29-17 (with a key injury to its QB at the half).

Comparing scores? Hah.

You are drifting into mulitple layers of comparative scores, which is the same problem SOS has.  It's not that complicated (like me).  When comparing similar record teams for entry into Pool C, look at how they did in the biggest game on their schedule, because that game is most like a playoff game.  When you have two teams from the same conference vying for Pool C- it's even simpler.   Ok, so UST had injuries when they played C-M and therefore, theoretically the score wasn't lopsided, what does that have to do with Bethel getting beat by 37 points by UST?  Bethel had their chance to show how they stack up vs a very good team- and they didn't come through. 

[LaCollegeFan]

Let me give an example of why I believe MOV shouldn't be used. Not making any excuses just stating what happened. You stated LC got blown out by UMHB which on the scoreboard they did by 27 points. On the field, however, they didn't. With 0.1 seconds left in the first half the score was 3-0 LC. LC lined up for a field goal, it was blocked and returned for a TD. Halftime score UMHB 6-3. Later in the 3rd Q, the score is still only 13-3, LC loses two of its starting defenders, including the leader of the defensive, Phil Ford. Going in to the 4th, still only 20-3 UMHB. LC drives the ball down the field, UMHB makes an amazing one handed interception saving a TD, essentially ending the game. Final-30-3. Like i said not making any excuses for LC, as UMHB is just as good as advertised, a superb team. I see your side of the argument as you just want the best teams that aren't going to go into the playoffs, and lose to the MUs or UMHBs by 40 points. At the same time however, just because a team lost 30-3 on the scoreboard doesn't mean they were blownout on the field, because just as others have mentioned, alot of other variables come into play.

[hazzben]

I know this horse is almost dead.

When has beating a dead horse every stopped any of us posting on these boards