Pool C -- 2012

[smedindy]

Heidelberg's #4 in the North RR. Wheaton was 9th and even behind OWU (#6) That's a lot of jumping. Endicott was behind Bridgewater.

I know SOS is a factor, but Heidelberg ran the table of the OAC save Mt. Union. That's going to count for something.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Heidelberg's #4 in the North RR. Wheaton was 9th and even behind OWU (#6) That's a lot of jumping. Endicott was behind Bridgewater.

I know SOS is a factor, but Heidelberg ran the table of the OAC save Mt. Union. That's going to count for something.

Agreed, smed. The SOS numbers count for something, but some qualitative judgement has to come into play here.  If anyone really wants to argue that Wabash, with losses to Oberlin and Allegheny, deserves to come to the board before Heidelberg, then I have no faith at all in the Pool C process.

[wally_wabash]

Projection forthcoming as soon as get the post all edited and what have you.  What's that?  Willamette is still playing?  Ummm...we'll go ahead and say this is my 32 team projection with 99% of the precincts reporting.   

Will have it up in a few minutes.  Early tease...what I came up with surprised me. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Projection forthcoming as soon as get the post all edited and what have you.  What's that?  Willamette is still playing?  Ummm...we'll go ahead and say this is my 32 team projection with 99% of the precincts reporting.   

Will have it up in a few minutes.  Early tease...what I came up with surprised me.

Wally, did your team at least make it back into the discussion, or were they hopelessly trapped behind the team they beat 28-0?

[MonroviaCat]

Projection forthcoming as soon as get the post all edited and what have you.  What's that?  Willamette is still playing?  Ummm...we'll go ahead and say this is my 32 team projection with 99% of the precincts reporting.   

Will have it up in a few minutes.  Early tease...what I came up with surprised me.

I think Willamette is like Hawaii for Obama or Texas for Romney--you can just call that a win for the Bearcats, cuz UPS aint mounting a comeback from 27 down. 

[wally_wabash]

Here's my final (sort of) projection for the field of 32.  I've ordered things the way I think the RACs will order them after today's results.  I may revisit the Pool C selections by ranking teams per the way I apply the criteria, but for now, we can consider this my "what I think the committee will do" final projection.  Let's get on with it. 

First the Pool A's.  Here they are, in all of their kick-your-feet-up-and-relax-on-Sunday glory. 

League	Team
ASC	UMHB
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	North Central
ECFC	Mount Ida
E8	Salisbury
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Coe
LL	Hobart
MIAA	Adrian
MAC	Widener
MWC	St. Norbert
MIAC	St. Thomas
NEFC	Framingham State
NJAC	Cortland State
NCAC	Wittenberg
NAC	Concordia-Chicago
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Washington & Lee
PAC	Washington & Jefferson
SCIAC	Cal Lutheran
UMAC	St. Scholastica
USAC	Christopher Newport
WIAC	UW-Oshkosh

I know CNU is still playing, but I'm giving the USAC.  If they lose, there isn't a trickle effect into the at-large process, so no harm no foul if they don't win tonight. 

Pool B- Wesley.  Slam dunk.  As discussed previously. 

Pool C.  This is why we're here.  First, I'll give you how I've ordered the teams that are in play in each region.  This is built from the regional rankings published Wednesday, adjusted somewhat for today's results.  I think the only adjustment is Waynesburg.  Everybody else here won today. 

East: Rowan, Lycoming, Bridgewater State (then Endicott if you want, but we're not getting that deep in this pool)
South: Louisiana College, Waynesburg, Muhlenberg (Huntingdon was in easy...gut punch loss there)
North: Elmhurst, Heidelberg, OWU, Wheaton
West: Pacific Lutheran, Bethel, Concordia-Moorhead, UW-Platteville

Here we go.  I hope we know the process here at this point. 

Round 1 - Elmhurst.  Easy pick.  9-1, 0.531 SOS, 1-1 vs RROs.  Welcome to the dance, Jays.  Heidelberg, please step to the table. 

Round 2 - Rowan.  Rowan is 7-1 in D3, 0.506 SOS, 0-1 vs RROs.  I'm favoring 1-loss here above a good RRO record (Louisiana College) and a monster SOS (PLU).  This seems consistent with how past committees have done this.  Lycoming, you're on the board now.

Round 3 - Heidelberg.  Starting to wade into some murky SOS waters here, but the win percentage carries the day.  The Berg have a 0.471 SOS and are '0-1 vs RROs.  The argument for Rowan basically applies for the Berg here.  Ohio Wesleyan, you're now at the table. 

Round 4 - Ohio Wesleyan.  9-1, 0.483 SOS, 0-1 vs RROs.  You know what's different about OWU and Heidelberg as far as the criteria are concerned?  Nothing.  Not a darn thing.  So OWU is in.  Wheaton comes to the table. 

Round 5 - Louisiana College.  The North had to run out of 1-loss teams eventually.  LC is 8-2, 0.515 SOS, and they got a HUGE RRO result today.  For the last couple of weeks, the lack of an RRO win kept them out.  They got that today, and they got help from Adrian to get to the top of the South's list.  Waynesburg, you are at the table. 

Round 6 - Wheaton.  8-2, 0.517 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO.  So why not Waynesburg and their 9-1 record?  0-0 vs RROs and an SOS of 0.441...one of the worst in all of D3.  Waynesburg is a hard pick to make now without any RRO results of note and that SOS.  Yes, the Berg and OWU got in, but they have SOSs that are significantly higher than Waynesburg. 

Ok, so I'm out of ranked North teams to replace Wheaton with.  Let's find one.  Right now, I think you're looking at either 8-2 Wabash or 8-2 Otterbein.  If you're ranking those two teams, 8-2 Wabash has a 0.540 SOS and is 2-0 vs RROs while 8-2 Otterbein has a 0.495 SOS and is 0-2 vs RROs.  Wabash, you're at the table. 

Round 7 - Wabash.  The résumé is spelled out above.  2-0 vs RROs is the whole enchilada here. 

Which leaves Waynesburg (9-1, 0.441 SOS, 0-0 vs RRO), Lycoming (8-2, 0.496 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO), and PLU (7-2, 0.625 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO), on the table. 

Wow.  Did not expect that.  PLU has an SOS  of 0.625.  PLU is also 0-2 vs RROs.  Now here's the thing...Lake Forest lost today.  Lake Forest was your #10 team in the West.  If Willamette wins tonight (they're gonna) and if Willamette gets onto the not-for-our-eyes rankings and PLU gets an RRO win, then the whole thing changes and it changes in a bad, bad way for Wheaton and Wabash as  Bethel and Concordia-Moorhead would/should both be picked before Wheaton.  The difference between PLU and the other two loss teams that got picked in front of them here are quality wins.  And that's why PLU got stranded on my board (and Bethel and Concordia-Moorhead got caught in the logjam and never got a chance). 

I hope this doesn't look like a homer play.  I've tried to approach this objectively from the start (when I started I believed wholeheartedly that Wabash was going to qualify automatically!) and apply the criteria the same way each and every week.  This is what happened organically as I went through the process.  Surprised me,  to say the least. 

[CalLuforLife]

I appreciate all your hard work, Wally. Just really hoping you're wrong about PLU.

[LaCollegeFan]

So you think with the RRO win today for LC that we should hear their name called tomorrow? Even if PLU gets in? Btw this is the first year i've followed D3 football, and having people on here like Wally have really helped me to get hooked and make me a life-long d3 fan. Thanks for all you have done!

[Schwami]

Wally, I did not know the national committee could go beyond the ten ranked teaqms from each region?  Doesn't the North region play itself out when they run out of teams?  (Hoping I'm wrong, and you're right, of course  )

[AO]

Wow.  Did not expect that.  PLU has an SOS  of 0.625.  PLU is also 0-2 vs RROs.  Now here's the thing...Lake Forest lost today.  Lake Forest was your #10 team in the West.  If Willamette wins tonight (they're gonna) and if Willamette gets onto the not-for-our-eyes rankings and PLU gets an RRO win, then the whole thing changes and it changes in a bad, bad way for Wheaton and Wabash as  Bethel and Concordia-Moorhead would/should both be picked before Wheaton.  The difference between PLU and the other two loss teams that got picked in front of them here are quality wins.  And that's why PLU got stranded on my board (and Bethel and Concordia-Moorhead got caught in the logjam and never got a chance). 

Willamette is now up 34-0 with 5min left in the 3rd quarter.  They are easily the best team not currently in the West regional rankings according to the criteria, currently 6th best SOS, regionally ranked win over Hardin Simmons.  St. Norbert's SOS is currently 205th.

[USee]

I love you Wally!

[wally_wabash]

I appreciate all your hard work, Wally. Just really hoping you're wrong about PLU.

Entirely possible.  That's just how it fell out when I went through the process.  I would have guessed/assumed that PLU would have been the 3rd or 4th team in to be honest with you.  Just never know for sure until you start to line them up round by round. 

For giggles, I gave PLU an RRO win for Willamette.  And went through my process again.  I came up with: Elmhurst, PLU, Rowan, Bethel, H'berg, OWU, LC.  So, that's how much I think that RRO result matters.  It's the difference between PLU being passed over seven times in a row and being the second team in. 

[wally_wabash]

So you think with the RRO win today for LC that we should hear their name called tomorrow? Even if PLU gets in? Btw this is the first year i've followed D3 football, and having people on here like Wally have really helped me to get hooked and make me a life-long d3 fan. Thanks for all you have done!

Yes I do, regardless of what they do with PLU.  PLU getting in quickly just gets Bethel in quickly.  Concordia-Moorhead isn't quite the slam dunk that Bethel is because they are 0-2 vs RROs. 

LCs path to the playoffs was a three-pronged situation:
- Hardin Simmons got regionally ranked with 3 losses...not a thing against HSU's fine team, but that was a surprise
- LC beat HSU to get a win against an RRO team
- Adrian beat Huntingdon and got them out of LC's way

Now, while I think LC is fairly safe, their selection is going to rely on where the committee ranks Waynesburg relative to LC and then how long it takes Waynesburg to get picked if they do wind up first in line from the South.  I don't think Waynesburg will be first in line, but it's definitely something that could happen. 

[Ralph Turner]

I have a hard time leaving the #1 Pool C candidate in the West Region on the table for all 7 rounds.

I think that PLU is in. They are on an island, but played the toughest schedule that they could.

They play the champ and runner-up in the SCIAC and only lose to the #1 team in the region by a TD.

Now how they seed the West will be interesting.

[hazzben]

Wally, I think this is certainly a defensible projection. But I sure hope you are wrong.

The 2 major variables, as I see them.

1. Does the West Region Committee rank Willamette. The Lake Forest loss opens the door and I think they do. Keep in mind Terry Horan (HC at Concordia-Moorhead) is on the committee. While he won't be on the phone to discuss his own team, you know he's going to lobby hard for two things, or he should. Willamette getting ranked and Bethel staying above UWP and Willamette.

2. W/L v. SoS & RRO results. Wally's projections bear out what happens if the Selection committee leans towards the former.

The curveball is really variable 1.

If Willamette gets ranked, PLU is a monster SoS and now 1-2 v. RRO. In this scenario, they come off the board no later than Rd 5, possibly as early Rd 4 (Rd 3 would be a bit of a stretch). Let's assume Rd 5.

Now the dominoes might start falling. Bethel probably comes to the board next. Wheaton, LC, Bethel and Lycoming are all in play. Bethel has equal to better results v. RRO at 1-2 and the best SoS numbers.

Welcome Concordia-Moorhead to the board. Like Bethel, they the best SoS numbers, but are 0-2* RRO results. I'd say it's either LC or Concordia-Moorhead here.

Left on the board are LC/C-M, Lycoming and Wheaton. Waynesburg never gets to the table.

Basically, these are the two variables that push things either Wally's direction or this one. And really, the major variable is what the West committee does with Willamette