Can someone explain the playoffs for me?

Started by SpartanMom_2016, September 06, 2012, 10:54:43 PM

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ExTartanPlayer

Good stuff, guys, I essentially agree with everything said.

jknezek, I agree that it's hard to get the Tartans into the South Region rankings because they really don't have any common opponents to evaluate.  Even if they beat Wabash (a long shot, but a possiblity) how does one figure out where they rate compared to that mish-mash at the bottom of the South Region fan poll?  Also, FTR, in my book there's no way that a 1-loss CMU deserves a C bid unless they put an awfully big scare into Wabash and thoroughly handle everyone else.  In my opinion, they're either in through Pool B with an undefeated record, or not in at all.

I don't see any of the B teams taking a Pool C bid for the same reasons you guys have enumerated already: Pool C will be very deep and it now looks like many of the Pool B candidates will have some kind of wart on their resume that you just can't afford when stacked up against a bunch of 9-1 conference runners-up from strong conferences.

This quote, in particular, kind of nails it:

"But if you were going to ask me pre-season if by week 3 Wesley, Trinity, Centre, Huntingdon etc were all going to have losses, I wouldn't have bet on it. This incredibly strong Pool B looks very awkward right now."
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

wally_wabash

I think it's also important to remember the process...one team per region, evaluated against just one other team from the other three regions, repeat until you've got 7 selections.  If B-SC were to only lose to Wesley and Wesley gets selected as a Pool B team, B-SC (if we were to take the South Region fan poll as a mock regional ranking which I realize is starting to suspend disbelief a good deal), would probably be the first at large team on the table when Pool C talks start.  Are there going to be 7 teams from other regions that get selected before B-SC?  I would doubt it. 

Obviously, there's a lot of this that is hard to speculate on because we don't have SOS metrics yet, but to me, it looks like one or more of these non-AQ teams, especially in the South Region, would be in a good position to be on the table for Pool C selection. 

jknexek- I think what makes the Pool B excess different this year and why there is a real good chance to see one grab an extra bid is the depth of that pool.  The dissolution of the SCAC has made Pool B more than just Wesley, Huntingdon, and CWRU which is what is has been for a while now.  This year you've got seven extra teams, all playing fairly traditional D-3 schedules.  I don't think that the committee has particularly shunned Pool B overflow in the Pool C selection process as much as there really hasn't been quality in that Pool B excess (although CWRU was close last year).
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

jknezek

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 19, 2012, 11:22:55 AM

jknexek- I think what makes the Pool B excess different this year and why there is a real good chance to see one grab an extra bid is the depth of that pool.  The dissolution of the SCAC has made Pool B more than just Wesley, Huntingdon, and CWRU which is what is has been for a while now.  This year you've got seven extra teams, all playing fairly traditional D-3 schedules.  I don't think that the committee has particularly shunned Pool B overflow in the Pool C selection process as much as there really hasn't been quality in that Pool B excess (although CWRU was close last year).

That's a great point.

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 19, 2012, 11:22:55 AM
jknexek- I think what makes the Pool B excess different this year and why there is a real good chance to see one grab an extra bid is the depth of that pool.  The dissolution of the SCAC has made Pool B more than just Wesley, Huntingdon, and CWRU which is what is has been for a while now.  This year you've got seven extra teams, all playing fairly traditional D-3 schedules.  I don't think that the committee has particularly shunned Pool B overflow in the Pool C selection process as much as there really hasn't been quality in that Pool B excess (although CWRU was close last year).

True - the last time there were this many quality Pool B teams, there were also more Pool B bids available (look at some of the discussions from 2005, 2006, 2007 on the Pool B thread when there were 3-4 Pool B bids up for grabs).
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

Ralph Turner

Pool B teams getting a Pool C bid is not uncommon in baseball where you have several quality teams that were not in Pool A Conferences. However, Pool B teams are moving into conferences whenever it serves their needs, and the Pool A conferences seem to like having the good programs.

hazzben

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on September 19, 2012, 10:15:08 AM
Quote from: jknezek on September 19, 2012, 09:05:50 AM
When your "B" pool will contain Wesley, the UAA, the SAA, the SCAC, Huntingdon, and a few others there is a lot of havoc that can be created! Macalaster anyone?

As a fan of another possible B candidate if the stars align (CMU), I'll be interested to follow Macalaster this season.

If Macalaster goes undefeated AND they are the only undefeated team in Pool B, I will support them getting a Pool B bid, although we can all line up and qualitatively scream that Wesley, Trinity, CMU and whomever else could beat them head to head because of their tougher schedules.

I'm not comfortable with leaving undefeated teams out of the field because we've arbitrarily decided that going undefeated against their schedule didn't merit a playoff bid.  How do we know they aren't better than we think?  You never know when we'll leave out an undefeated "weak sister" that actually COULD have won a playoff game.

Worth noting: Macalaster will have to beat three MIAC teams to go undefeated; even if they are three of the lesser MIAC teams, all have a few wins to their credit this season.  So they will have to beat a few semi-decent teams from one of Division III's better conferences.  If they go undefeated, I think they'll have to earn it.

I posted this question about Macalaster earlier in this thread. I've been thinking about it a bit since then.

IF Mac goes unbeaten, they'll have to defeat 3 of the weaker MIAC teams. Augsburg has hovered around .500 for the last 5 years, they may be legit this year. But if they lose to Mac no one in our league will view them that way. Carleton hasn't had more than 3 wins in 3 years. Hamline is a joke, they've averaged 2-3 wins during the entire D3football.com era and were winless last year. If that is the reason for giving them an Pool B bid, I'm not convinced they've earned it. The better measuring stick may be their game this weekend against Lewis & Clark. L&C went 7-2 last year and are 2-0 so far this year.

Here's my biggest issues with Mac getting a Pool B. Their SOS will be one of the lowest in the nation.

But more than that, Mac has a very clear route into playoffs...rejoin the MIAC as a full member and compete for the Pool A with the rest of us. I get why they dropped out, they were getting murdered. However, the argument was that they wanted to get back on their feet and when prepared, come back into full league membership. I've got little respect for a team dropping its football team from the conference where all its other sports exist and then complaining that at 10-0 against cherry picked, beatable competition they should have gotten into the dance. That, and I don't think Mac would stand a chance against the top 4 or 5 Pool B teams this year.

It's apples to oranges in my book comparing Mac to a weak team from a weak conference getting a Pool A. I get equal access, and while I hate seeing better teams left home, those Pool A's earned their way in. Mac just strikes me as a different deal. They've got a conference, one they left because they couldn't compete in. So how does dropping to lesser competition by choice, when a route to a legit Pool A was available, now mean they think they've earned their way into the playoffs. You 'deserve it' because you wimped out of the clearest route available to you?

If Mac goes 10-0, their first concern should be about how soon they'll be rejoining the MIAC, not worrying about if they may get into the playoffs. Rant over  :)

smedindy

Are you sure Mac is concerned with the playoffs? Do you know what they 'think'?
Wabash Always Fights!

hazzben

Quote from: smedindy on September 19, 2012, 06:50:43 PM
Are you sure Mac is concerned with the playoffs? Do you know what they 'think'?

At this point, they should be concerned with winning against L&C. If they get to 7-0 or 8-0, you can't tell me the players and coaches won't be thinking and dreaming about possibly making the playoffs. Human nature.

But the topic was brought up on this board. So at the very least the D3football.com community is thinking about it.

More than that, I don't think the selection committee contacts eligible at large teams and asks them their level of interest in making the playoffs. My point is simply that given their weak schedule and the reality that they have a defined pathway to a Pool A, that should be how they get in. I understand they're independent right now. But when they made the move to Ind. they stated their goal was to return to the MIAC. IMO, unless they're playing great teams as an Ind. (like many of the others are) then the playoffs shouldn't be on the table. Not when they're located in an area filled with quality competition and they've gone out of their way only to schedule the easiest.

frank uible

How long has it been since both Macalester and also the playoffs have been uttered in the same breath?

hazzben

Quote from: frank uible on September 20, 2012, 02:39:49 PM
How long has it been since both Macalester and also the playoffs have been uttered in the same breath?

I know right! After this weekend we may realize it's all premature, or it might actually start to like a discussion with some grounding in reality.

jknezek

It's definitely premature. But the board was slow so it was a fun discussion. If last year proved anything, it's that the selection committee can surprise. Idle chatter in week 3 isn't worth much except entertainment!

Pat Coleman

This time last year, if anyone was saying the same thing about Lewis and Clark, it would have been amazingly premature, but they did get within a couple of games of the playoffs. Mac has a long way to go.
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bluenote

Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 20, 2012, 05:18:36 PM
This time last year, if anyone was saying the same thing about Lewis and Clark, it would have been amazingly premature, but they did get within a couple of games of the playoffs. Mac has a long way to go.

L&C would have had the auto seed from the NWC if they had beat Linfield in 2011. Unfortunately for them they got clobbered at the CatDome. But they did have a shot at it. And that was pretty cool to see after all they had gone through the past few years....almost dropping football altogether. I look forward to seeing the Macalester/L&C game this Saturday in Portland since my Wildcats have a bye. I'm looking forward to the game!

ExTartanPlayer

Ok, maybe we didn't have to worry about Macalaster going undefeated. Kudos to L & C.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

Ron Boerger

I think it's safe to say that, trailing UMHB 21-0 with 5 minutes still to play in the 1st quarter, we don't have to worry about Trinity(TX) getting a Pool B, C, or Z this year.    :o