NESCAC 2012

[2xfaux]

It is my understanding that Becks is preping to moderate the next Presidential Debate.  I am afraid you folks are on your own.

[Jump4Joy]

C'mon, Giggs. Stick around!

[jc2]

NCAA has posted the first Regional Rankings of the season. Any thoughts? NESCAC dominates the list with 5 of the top 7 teams.

[Jump4Joy]

I'll play. First of all, no surprise that NESCAC has numbers here. Secondly, the rankings were obviously done before Wheaton lost to MIT. Lastly, how does Middlebury end up at #1 if they have the same record as Amherst, including a tie with the Jeffs and a loss to unranked Conn College?

[jc2]

Don't claim to understand how the percentages are converted into actual rankings but IF it's a simple sum of the percentages in each column, a loss to an unranked team gets buried in the overall win-loss percentage while a loss to a ranked team can have a huge impact. For example, if you play only one ranked team your W-L percentage is 1.000 but if you lose it is 0.000. This can have a huge effect on your ranking. Amherst's loss was to a ranked team while Midd's was to an unranked team. Thus, it would appear that the Regional Rankings are strongly influenced by the W-L record against ranked teams. Furthermore, if this is a correct analysis the rankings could change dramatically during the NESCAC playoffs as ranked teams will be facing off against each other.

Anyone know exactly how the NCAA converts the percentages into rankings?

[Ocean 1]

No doubt the big game coming up on the NESCAC schedule is next Wednesday's Will vs. Mid match. Barring an upset today, winner will have #1 seed in NESCAC Tournament. Top 3 teams...Williams, Amherst and Mid seem to be matched very evenly.

Should be a terrific conference tournament.

[Jump4Joy]

jc2, you're right about weight of losses to ranked teams v. losses to unranked team. Doesn't that seem bonkers to you? The way I see it, if you lose to an unranked team, that should hurt you more than if you lose to a ranked team because--on paper--a ranked team shouldn't lose to an unranked team, but a ranked team is supposed to give another ranked team a challenge. Anyway, the NESCAC tourney should be a pressure cooker!

[jc2]

Tufts beat Hamilton 4-0??? Is this accurate? Quite the stunner. Anyone see the game?

[pcc]

As far as NCAA tournament goes, do 3 NESCAC teams getting bids sound right this year? More? Less?

[Giggs]

I would say that three are in play at this point, but it also depends on how teams do in the NESCAC tournament.  Three teams made it in two of the past two three years, but there are really a very limited number of at-large slots available. 

[Ocean 1]

Agree with Giggs view. Some more color:

In 2011, only 4 of 22 NCAA 'at-large' berths were awarded to the New England Region (in addition to the 8 automatic qualifying conference champion berths).

Two 'at-large' berths went to NESCAC (Williams & Midd) / two went to NEWMAC (Springfield & Wheaton).

Importantly, the key determination for 'at-large' bids is where teams finish in the final NCAA Regional  Rankings. In 2011, Midd and Williams were ranked at #2 and #3 (behind Amherst at #1, the NESCAC Champ and AQ-automatic qualifier) while Springfield and Wheaton were ranked #4 and #5 respectively (#6 MIT was the NEWMAC Champ and AQ).

So who are leading NESCAC candidates for NCAA bids in 2012? Let's turn to the recent 2012 Regional Rankings as of 10/17 (there are still two more rankings to come before final selection): #1 Midd, #2 Wheaton, #3 Williams, #4 Amherst, #5 Bowdoin, #6 Brandeis, #7 Hamilton, #8 Springfield, etc.

At this point, assuming form holds as in 2011 and nothing else changes, NCAA shoe-ins would appear to be Midd, Williams and Amherst with Bowdoin running as a dark horse.

But, as Giggs points out...not so fast...as both regular season completion and conference championships will play a big factor toward final Regional Rankings, AQ's and the 'at-large' selection process.

Probably the most competitive race for Regional Rankings and NCAA's in recent NESCAC history...we're in for a treat!

[pcc]

So, an early exit in the NESCAC tournament for say Bowdoin could be the kiss of death getting an NCAA berth?

[Jump4Joy]

Yes, depends on Bowdoin's tourney success, perhaps.
Last week's NCAA regional poll (will be updated tomorrow, with guaranteed changes, especially for Wheaton, I imagine):
Rank  School          In-Region Overall
1   Middlebury        9-1-1    9-1-1
2   Wheaton (MA)13-0-2   13-0-2
3   Williams        9-2-1    9-2-1
4   Amherst        9-1-1    9-1-1
5   Bowdoin        9-3-0    9-3-0
6   Brandeis      10-3-1   10-3-1
7   Hamilton        8-3-1    8-3-1
8   Springfield        8-4-1    8-4-1
9   MIT              10-3-1    10-3-1
10   UMass-B      13-1-0   13-1-0
11   Westfld St.      12-0-1   13-0-1
12   Babson        6-3-1     7-0-1

[jc2]

How does the NCAA go from the data (winning pct, opponents winnning percentage, etc.) to the regional rankings? It doesn't appear to be a simple sum of the components. There must be some sort of weighting. Could someone in the know post the formula the NCAA uses?

[Giggs]

jc2, here is a link that "explains" the ranking process.  Let us know if you can figure this out!  http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2011/about.  Also, in my estimation (assuming that they defeat Tufts in the last game) to have a chance Bowdoin needs to at least make it to the conference finals and beat Amherst, Williams or Mid along the way--the three teams that have beat them and are ahead of them in the rankings.