NESCAC 2012

[Ocean 1]

This will be a good test to see if Wheaton's #2 Regional Ranking is changed tomorrow at this point in the season.

Logic: Wheaton has a 1-1-1 performance since the first Regional Ranking last week, including a loss to #9 ranked MIT and tie with #12 Babson.

But, Wheaton also has wins against higher ranked teams including Williams, Springfield and UMass-Boston earlier in the season which is how, in part, they got to #2.

With Hamilton's big loss to Tufts (unranked), Springfield's 2-0 performance against unranked teams and Bowdoin, Brandeis, Williams, Midd and Amherst holding their own against unranked teams, I might expect to see Wheaton stay where they are, but MIT move-up at Hamilton's expense. Just unsure how that strength-of-schedule stuff weighs-in here. We shall see.

[Ocean 1]

Further to Regional Rankings, interesting to see correlations between actual rankings and the Regional Data Sheets as of 10/17 for each of the Top 5 ranked teams:

                  WL %           Opp. WL %               Opp.-Opp. WL %              SOS          Vs. Ranked Teams

1. Midd      9-1-1 (.864)         .605                           .577                        .596             .875 (3-0-1)

2. Whea   13-0-2 (.933)         .532                           .555                        .539            1.000 (3-0-0)

3. Will        9-2-1 (.792)         .647                           .583                        .626             .583 (3-2-1)

4. Amh       9-1-1 (.864)         .600                           .599                        .600             .700 (3-1-1)

5. Bow       9-3-0 (.750)         .608                           .574                        .596             .400 (2-3-0)

Key Insights: We read that the Primary Criteria for Regional Rankings (not listed in priority order because they don't give us this) are:

- WL % against regional opponents
- Strength-of-schedule (SOS)
- In-region head-to-head competition
- In-region results vs. common regional opponents
- In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams

My guess on criteria weightings priority is i) WL %, ii) SOS and iii) results vs. ranked teams...followed by balance of other criteria/weightings. Anyone out there that can confirm?

Further, if we review the rankings against primary criteria, it starts to make some sense:

- While Wheaton has the WL % and performance vs. ranked teams edge, Midd noses them out for #1 based on SOS and total of 5 criteria combined.
- Williams does the same with Amherst for #3, and on the strength of winning their head-to-head match.

One thing for sure...we have all the makings for a shake-up based on tomorrow's games and the NESCAC Tournament results!

[jc2]

A bit surprising to me that the NCAA uses a "secret" formula to arrive at the rankings even though they make the data public.

Even though there is a lot of uncertainty in the NESCAC race for the playoffs, one game is already set (Bowdoin v Hamilton).

[2xfaux]

If you google "secret formula ncaa" not much relevant comes up and much to my surprise if you try "secret formula ncaa Dick Cheney" still not that much.  Which leads me to believe that in the end there is a hat involved some how. 

[Giggs]

Tufts playing for its life tied 1-1 with Bowdoin in the second half.  A tie is not good enough for them to stay in the play for the tournament.

[jc2]

The NESCAC race for playoff spots looks very interesting. Bates and Tufts are out. There is a logjam for the last couple of spots. The tiebreak rules (whatever they are) are going to be put to good use!

[Giggs]

So here is the tie breaking procedure if three teams will be tied in the position to determine who is in and who is out.  Will not try to figure out the head to head at this point as the calculation depends on what Colby and Conn does--win or tie they are out of the formula and are in the tournament:

3-way or more tie (or if teams tied during the regular season):
1. Best record among tying teams, against one another (head-to-head).
2. Best conference winning percentage.
3. Most conference wins (in games that are part of the conference schedule and count toward league standings).
4. Comparison of results of conference games played against top 4 teams (including all teams at the 4th spot).
5. Comparison of results of conference games played against top 8 teams (including all teams at the 8th spot).
6. Comparison of results of conference games played against conference teams in rank order. Comparisons shall be made one team at a time starting with the highest ranked team.
7. If the tie remains after comparing results against the highest ranked team, the results against the next team in rank order shall be used. This process is continued until a winner is determined.
8. Coin flip (or similar random action involving all tied teams).

[jc2]

Last day of the regular season.

Midd has beaten Williams 3-1, so should be the #1 seed.

Amherst v Conn and Bates v Colby this afternoon will be important in dictating the last teams to get in.

[amh63]

Near the end of the first half of the men's soccer game with Amherst ahead, 2-0, one of the CT. announcers reported that the women's game in the lower field also had a 2-0 score with Amherst having the lead.  The women's team had such a lead against Williams and lost to the Ephs in the last 30 seconds.  Go Jeffs.

[Jump4Joy]

So Amherst defeated Conn, 2-1, leaving a three-way tie for first among Amherst, Middlebury and Williams. Middlebury beat Williams today, 3-1, so based on head-to-head and then record against top 4 in the league, Middlebury gets the #1 seed. If they win their quarterfinal Saturday, they play host for the semis and finals.

[Giggs]

Actually, congrat's to Conn for making the tournament. Perhaps the beginning of a better path?

[machine54]

Batman and Robin combine to dismantle Williams. Seriously flawed gameplay/execution by the Ephs playing into what Midd likes to do best.  This is Midd's window of opportunity but Wesleyan will be a tough opponent and after making some adjustments played a great second half v. Midd when they met during the season. Should Midd advance loser of Amherst/Williams semi-final would appear to be in jeopardy of not receiving NCAA bid.

[Jump4Joy]

You speak like the Riddler, Machine. What does Midd like to do best? And which would you choose as Batman?

[jc2]

This will be a good test to see if Wheaton's #2 Regional Ranking is changed tomorrow at this point in the season.

Logic: Wheaton has a 1-1-1 performance since the first Regional Ranking last week, including a loss to #9 ranked MIT and tie with #12 Babson.

But, Wheaton also has wins against higher ranked teams including Williams, Springfield and UMass-Boston earlier in the season which is how, in part, they got to #2.

With Hamilton's big loss to Tufts (unranked), Springfield's 2-0 performance against unranked teams and Bowdoin, Brandeis, Williams, Midd and Amherst holding their own against unranked teams, I might expect to see Wheaton stay where they are, but MIT move-up at Hamilton's expense. Just unsure how that strength-of-schedule stuff weighs-in here. We shall see.

This week's Regional Rankings:
1 Middlebury
2 Williams
3 Amherst
4 Wheaton (MA)
5 Bowdoin
6 Brandeis
7 MIT
8 Springfield
9 Hamilton
10 Babson
11 Western CT ST
12 Westfield ST

[Ocean 1]

Actually, congrat's to Conn for making the tournament. Perhaps the beginning of a better path?

As our fellow board member and keen observer of NESCAC soccer Becks once said..."Beware the hissing Camel".

These ladies have been making great strides on the pitch this year...and seemingly saving their best performances against the best teams...giving fits to Williams, Midd and Amherst. They could be on the rise.