2012 Playoffs: Bracket Reactions & more

[pg04]

I guess we'll either both be near the top or both near the bottom 

[emma17]

This is kind of a weird year to me. Did anyone else at least go somewhat outside the box when doing the bracket challenge? The first round or two was rather standard but after that I ended up with some interesting combinations.

I think I picked Heidelberg over Hobart, and Salisbury over Widener. Those are my two biggest round-two upsets.

Call me crazy, but I have MHB over UWO in the Stagg Bowl.

This may not be smart to say but I'm dead serious in saying that all of what you stated there is exactly what I did. Everything. Those two upsets and the Stagg Bowl.

Now that's a little weird.

[emma17]

Mount Union has the easier road to the semis by quite a wide margin

Interesting how that works pretty much every year. 

It is not UMU's fault that geography is nearly all in the d3 NCAA world, and that the western half is MUCH stronger than the eastern half, and they are in the eastern half. 

Last year and this year I think the committee has done a marvelous job of balancing things out.  I'd agree that UMU seems to have a relatively safe path to the semis (exceeded, perhaps, by St. Thomas), but having to beat consensus #2 UMHB to reach the Stagg itself will be a MAJOR test.

I too like the job the committee did in balancing the regions. 
I hesitate to give MHB too much of a chance vs Mt simply because I don't know that they have the overall defense.  I do think the one thing UWW has shown over the years is the importance of a very strong defense, especially vs. the run.  Stopping the run has been one of the biggest keys to beating Mt.  Does MHB have that type of defense?

I haven't dug real deep into MHB yet, but what I've found so far is that a lot of their points surrendered are late in their games after they have a big lead.  Unlike Mount where the 2nd and 3rd strings have given up less points than the starters (starters = 31 / reserves 14), the MHB 2nd unit seems to be much worse than their starters, which I think would be very typical around D3. 

One of the things that has set Mount apart is their depth.  Their 2nd string could go at least 7-3 if not better with a couple breaks.

And Emma is right, the best way to beat Mount is at the line of scrimmage.  If you can stop the run and get constant pressure on the QB without blitzing you're in good shape.  If you have to get creative & take chances to get pressure, Mount has too many athletes at the skill positions and is too diverse in their scheme to not burn you.    If the game is a stalemate at the line of scrimmage, then I like Mount's chances of our skill people being better than yours.   

What Whitewater has done in the late 2000's is to dominate the line of scrimmage and make the game a slug fest.  When Mount has won, it's been because of their skill people overcoming the deficit at the LOS. 

The inherent weaknesses of this Mount team, much like the recent past, is that the defense is very undersized and will struggle against a big, strong O-line.  It's built perfectly to defend the spread offenses that are typical in the OAC.  It's not built to defend a power running game.   And offensively they are built around a GREAT receiving corps that goes 6 or more deep.  Mount has an effect running game overall, but is missing that stub RB that can get the tough yards.  They're running game is more spread, finesse type schemes than what they were previously.  And none of their RB's are anywhere near as talented as Kmic, they're your typical D3 running backs.   A cold nasty rainy day (Salem in '07) or extreme winds (Salem '02) would have a terrible affect on this offense.

You're being a gentleman here Coach- the truth is the first team defense of MHB has given up quite a few points. Now, I don't think Mt has played the level of competition from an offensive perspective that MHB has, so I shouldn't draw too many conclusions.
My gut tells me MHB will struggle to stop Mt. - perhaps we see a shootout for the ages.

[AUKaz00]

And I'm going to leave the picks as they are with the timestamp before my post so that it can be shown I didn't cheat 

I'm not sure you can make adjustments after submitting your picks.  I went back to change one of mine, but was unable.

[Pat Coleman]

Yeah, there was a ton of offense in the ASC this year. Meanwhile, a lot of OAC teams had disappointing years, as evidenced by the four coaching changes so far.

[roocru]

Mount Union has the easier road to the semis by quite a wide margin

Interesting how that works pretty much every year. 

It is not UMU's fault that geography is nearly all in the d3 NCAA world, and that the western half is MUCH stronger than the eastern half, and they are in the eastern half. 

Last year and this year I think the committee has done a marvelous job of balancing things out.  I'd agree that UMU seems to have a relatively safe path to the semis (exceeded, perhaps, by St. Thomas), but having to beat consensus #2 UMHB to reach the Stagg itself will be a MAJOR test.

I too like the job the committee did in balancing the regions. 
I hesitate to give MHB too much of a chance vs Mt simply because I don't know that they have the overall defense.  I do think the one thing UWW has shown over the years is the importance of a very strong defense, especially vs. the run.  Stopping the run has been one of the biggest keys to beating Mt.  Does MHB have that type of defense?

I haven't dug real deep into MHB yet, but what I've found so far is that a lot of their points surrendered are late in their games after they have a big lead.  Unlike Mount where the 2nd and 3rd strings have given up less points than the starters (starters = 31 / reserves 14), the MHB 2nd unit seems to be much worse than their starters, which I think would be very typical around D3. 

One of the things that has set Mount apart is their depth.  Their 2nd string could go at least 7-3 if not better with a couple breaks.

And Emma is right, the best way to beat Mount is at the line of scrimmage.  If you can stop the run and get constant pressure on the QB without blitzing you're in good shape.  If you have to get creative & take chances to get pressure, Mount has too many athletes at the skill positions and is too diverse in their scheme to not burn you.    If the game is a stalemate at the line of scrimmage, then I like Mount's chances of our skill people being better than yours.   

What Whitewater has done in the late 2000's is to dominate the line of scrimmage and make the game a slug fest.  When Mount has won, it's been because of their skill people overcoming the deficit at the LOS. 

The inherent weaknesses of this Mount team, much like the recent past, is that the defense is very undersized and will struggle against a big, strong O-line.  It's built perfectly to defend the spread offenses that are typical in the OAC.  It's not built to defend a power running game.   And offensively they are built around a GREAT receiving corps that goes 6 or more deep.  Mount has an effect running game overall, but is missing that stub RB that can get the tough yards.  They're running game is more spread, finesse type schemes than what they were previously.  And none of their RB's are anywhere near as talented as Kmic, they're your typical D3 running backs.   A cold nasty rainy day (Salem in '07) or extreme winds (Salem '02) would have a terrible affect on this offense.

You're being a gentleman here Coach- the truth is the first team defense of MHB has given up quite a few points. Now, I don't think Mt has played the level of competition from an offensive perspective that MHB has, so I shouldn't draw too many conclusions.
My gut tells me MHB will struggle to stop Mt. - perhaps we see a shootout for the ages.

If you are looking at defensive stats, you have to take into account the ASC as a whole.  In an ATN post, Keith mentioned talking about the high scoring shootouts in the ASC this year.  The ASC is a prolific passing conference as shown below:
Total Passing Offense
National Rank    Team    YPG      Record
1   Hardin Simmons     423.3        6-4
11  Sul Ross              333.0        5-5
14  Texas Lutheran     325.6        4-6
18  Louisiana College   308.8        8-2
42  ETBU                  267.4         3-7
84  UMHB                  221.4        10-0
126  Miss College       190.5         2-7
213  Howard Payne     134.9        1-9

In addition UMHB played
47  Wesley                262.78      8-1
51  Trinity                 253.1        7-3
113   Kean                 199.28     5-4

If we look at Passing Efficiency:
5   UMHB                   171.04
9   Hardin Simmons      165.9
10  Sul Ross               164.33
50  Texas Lutheran      145.3
59  Louisiana College    141.52
146 ETBU                   118.02
166  Mississippi Col      110.57
225  Howard Payne      87.58

Once again in addition to conference UMHB played:
4  Trinity    173.86
64   Wesley   140.0
101  Kean      128.8

If you go by individual stats, The ASC had 5 quarterbacks in the top 100 at 3,8,10,58,and 67 and UMHB also faced non conference quarterbacks ranked, 12,62 and 92.  While looking at these stats it appeared that only the NWC conference was comparable, they just did not play as many games.

Texas high schools play a 7 on 7 season during the summer which adds greatly to the development of QB's who go on to college.  They are heavily influenced by the high scoring Big 12 offenses and other schools like Texas A&M and the University of Houston teams coached by Kevin Sumlin.  There are a lot of Texas HS qb's playing throughout the college ranks and the pros (RG3, Andrew Luck, Colt McCoy, Vince Young, etc.). 

I am not trying to bragg on UMHB in this post, just trying to place their low national rankings on pass defense into perspective.

[Ron Boerger]

Or maybe nobody in the ASC/Texas knows how to play pass defense.  ;-)

[Pat Coleman]

It is definitely a two-way street. These things do not exist independently of each other.

[roocru]

Or maybe nobody in the ASC/Texas knows how to play pass defense.  ;-)

They knew enough to beat Trinity by 21. 

[K-Mack]

Love the capsules.  I love them better when Wabash gets profiled.   

I know the super juicy games come next weekend, but there are some really good games this weekend.  The few that have more of my interest than others are..

North Central @ CLU - This may be a pretty unpopular opinion, but I kind of think North Central has way more benefit of the doubt capital than they've really earned.  I know they aren't thrilled about being the team that got singled out to fly in round 1, but I think they should really embrace the opportunity.  This right here is the road that North Central can go through to finally validate all of the "next big thing" talk that has circled that team for the last few years. 

Witt @ Heidelberg - Here's the best non-Mount Union game for Heidelberg this year.  Probably the best team Witt has seen as well.  A little bit of NCAC/OAC pride going on here as well.  My sense is that Heidelberg is the better side, but when Wittenberg gets that offense clicking they can beat some good teams. 

W&J @ Hopkins - If you don't have another horse amongst the 32 teams, hard not to be pulling for the Presidents to make a run. 

Also would have loved to see Louisiana College separated from UMHB, but I think we knew better.

I don't think these are the only great games, but not much to quibble with here. Totally agree about North Central. I nearly dropped them out of the top 25 after the Wheaton loss. At some point, they have to beat somebody, not just be the team that came within 10 of Whitewater that one year.

(I know the year, I'm just saying it that way for effect)

[umhb2001]

Game day! Lets do this!


GO CRU![/color]

[hazzben]

Or maybe nobody in the ASC/Texas knows how to play pass defense.  ;-)

I think a significant part of this is both the massive popularity of HS football down south and the proliferation of 7 on 7 (Skelly) competitions down there. There are just tons of quality QB's and receivers flooding out of this region, Tx in particular, into all levels of college football right now. With the weather being what it is, and the football devotion, these guys are playing in increasingly complex offenses and many are playing some form of football year round. The Big12 is a classic example of this. The defenses are SEC standard. But the QB's are also better than anywhere in the country. And most of those QB's come out of TX (except for the best one this year, at outlier homeschooled kid from CO). I wouldn't be surprised if there was a correlation in the DIII ASC.

[02 Warhawk]

I foolishly picked a non-Mount union OAC team to advance two rounds...what was I thinking.

Outside of Mount, it's hard to find a team that can compete nationally in that conference. It's hard to gage how good that conference is, since they play only one non-conference game.

[pg04]

I foolishly picked a non-OAC team to advance two rounds...what was I thinking.

Outside of Mount, it's hard to find a team that can compete nationally in that conference. It's hard to gage how good that conference is, since they play only one non-conference game.

Well we both bit the bullet today on Heidelberg. I also foolishly picked Washington and Jefferson. My bracket is pretty much done, although our grand scale is still possible.

[02 Warhawk]

if all the current scores hold up, that heidi game will be my only loss. but off course there's still some games that haven't started yet.