Bracket of Death Question

[jeffjo]

I'm having a little trouble figuring out this "Bracket of Death" thing. First off, is it an 8-team Div. III "region," or a 16-team Div. I "region?" Either could be called a "bracket."

Second, which bracket is this "Bracket of Death?" The talk from Hoopsville seems to say it the one with #1 St. Thomas. Straight seeding says the 16-team bracket should contain #1, #8, #9, and #16. What it actually contains, based on the D3HOOPS poll, is #1, #8, #9, #12, and #14. That's a little heavy, but not extremely so and only in the lower rankings. And it is properly divided between the two 8-team brackets. Based on Massey ratings, it has #1, #4, #8, #10, #16, and #17. And the top four of those are all in St. Thomas's 8-team region, so it is a little heavy by this measure.

But now let's look at Whitewater's bracket. Based on the D3HOOPS poll, where they are #3, it should contain #3, #6, #11, and #14. It actually contains #3, #5, #7, #10, and #17, which is heavier than St. Thomas's (based on where in the order the extra team is). And more of the imbalance is in Whitewater's 8-team bracket. Based on Massey Ratings, where Whitewater is #2 and the bracket should contain #2, #7, #10, and #15, they actually have #2, #3, #6, #12, and #22. And again, the top four are in Whitewater's 8-team bracket. And again, by this measure, it is heavier that St. Thomas's.

So I'd say it is the Whitewater/North Central/Ill. Wesleyan/Wash U. bracket that deserves the title. Each of these teams had a legitimate hope to win the championship, before being placed in the B.O.D., but only one can emerge to the round of eight. St. Thomas does have strong opponents, but (according to Massey, at least) none seem to be a serious threat to upset.

And what are we comparing this to? I have to guess it is the 2009 Men's bracket that comprised the major contributors to both of this year's candidate B.O.D.s. That 16-team bracket had the D3HOOPS #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #7, #8, and three more in the top 25. From Massey, these same ten teams were all in the top 11 (missing only #10). Wash U. emerged from that melee, and cruised to the title in Salem.

[Mr. Ypsi]

My usage of THE Bracket of Death is, indeed, the 2009 men's bracket (quadrant) that you referenced - the sectional that year was MUCH tougher than the FF!  My usage of Bracket of Death this year is, as you surmised, the 8 teams including second round matches (if no upsets in the first round) of IWU/WashU and UWW/NCC, with winners meeting way too early in round three.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Well... for starters "straight seeding" is only done in major tournaments in the professional ranks and in things like the Division I men's and women's basketball tournaments. Other tourns in the NCAA certainly have some seeding, but nothing as straight forward.

In Division III, there are no seeds. Teams are bracketed based on the best match-up that regional rankings allow PLUS the geographic nature of limiting the number of flights needed to conduct the tournament (a maximum of 500 miles is allowed to move a team before a flight is used). We don't normally ever see at #1 vs. #16 games because it just doesn't happen.

Secondly, remember the D3hoops.com Top 25 is a poll... not a seeding. So while teams may be ranked pretty high, their regional criteria may not allow them to be as high (i.e. Calvin). The Top 25 is not part of the criteria - nor is any Top 25 - and thus not used by the NCAA when bracketing.

As for what we were referring to on Hoopsville... it was the IWU/Wash U / North Central/UWW bracket of eight teams - not the St. Thomas one. The bracket we are talking about has the #1, #2 and #3 regionally ranked teams from the Midwest along with the #3 West ranked team all meeting potentially in the second round and then the winners facing each other in the third round. This eliminates all but one of these teams and thus the "bracket of death."

The term has been around for a long time dating back to the early 2000's when it was FAR more common for a scenario like this to occur based on a far more geographic and regional mandate for bracketing and not as keen an awareness of creativity from the national committee. We haven't seen a brutal bracket of eight since at least 2007 because the committees have done an amazing job of being creative with who travels where and how they separate the teams. However, this year they got into a pickle with the lack of neutral games we normally have (30 hosts in round #1 vs. 16-18 hosts a normal first weekend). Mike DeWitt admitted they couldn't get themselves out of this scenario and even when Pat and I tried to bracket the teams prior to knowing the NCAA's version, we kept running into major problems in the Midwest.

While this isn't the greatest scenario to be had this year... I do take solace in two things: there is a lot of parity this year and there was bound to be a tough 8-bracket or two because of so many good teams; the track record for the committee has been so good that while I am not thrilled with this issue, I give them the benefit of the doubt considering their circumstances. May the best team win.

[jaybird44]

We should all relax, I guess...especially comparing this seasons BOD to that 2009 aggregate.

As long as there are geographical concerns and demands involved in crafting the tournament, there will often be one or two talent-overloaded quadrants, and a couple of comparatively weak ones.  The Missouri State High School Activities Association bases its tournament by geographic arrangements in the district tournaments, without seeding the district winners.  So, the four paths to that final four can be significantly different, regarding the degree of difficulty.

Just gotta win...

[Mr. Ypsi]

We should all relax, I guess...especially comparing this seasons BOD to that 2009 aggregate.

As long as there are geographical concerns and demands involved in crafting the tournament, there will often be one or two talent-overloaded quadrants, and a couple of comparatively weak ones.  The Missouri State High School Activities Association bases its tournament by geographic arrangements in the district tournaments, without seeding the district winners.  So, the four paths to that final four can be significantly different, regarding the degree of difficulty.

Just gotta win...

Easy to say for a fan of the team that survived THE Bracket of Death (then 'coasted' to the title)!

Being a fan of IWU (who wasn't in the 2009 tourney), I view this year's BoD a bit differently - if we beat Transy in round one (not a given), we face WashU, to whom we lost in December.  IF we get revenge, we then face (probably) either UWW or NCC, against whom we were 1-2 this season.  (That's three of the five season losses right there (and a fourth was to a team Transy finished ahead of in the HCAC)! )

This year's BoD does not even begin to compare to the 2009 version (THAT will hopefully never be repeated), but it is still much tougher than rounds two and three ought to be.  And yes, I recognize the logistical difficulties in avoiding it; that said, I still have a fan's right to complain about it!

[(509)Rat]

I'm having a little trouble figuring out this "Bracket of Death" thing. First off, is it an 8-team Div. III "region," or a 16-team Div. I "region?" Either could be called a "bracket."

Second, which bracket is this "Bracket of Death?" The talk from Hoopsville seems to say it the one with #1 St. Thomas. Straight seeding says the 16-team bracket should contain #1, #8, #9, and #16. What it actually contains, based on the D3HOOPS poll, is #1, #8, #9, #12, and #14. That's a little heavy, but not extremely so and only in the lower rankings.

Bracket of death should probably be re-worded to "region" or "section" of death. Lately it has referred to a heavy 8 team "region" of one of the 16 team portions of the bracket.

In an 8 team region, using NCAA DI type seeding, the #1 seed should also have #16, #17, #32, #33, #48, #49, and #64. That is nowhere NEAR what you said.

Looking at St. Thomas' 8 team region...and we'll use Massey so that we can get rankings for all teams in the "region" and attempt to compare apples to apples, your (incorrect) DI example to the DIII bracket...you have #1, #4, #8, #10, #23, #28, #72, #83....

Even using d3hoops top 25 you get #1, #12, #14, #19, #22, #29, and aurora and northwestern don't register (also the last 2 in Massey). Again, a lot more difficult than the path a #1 seed in the division I tourney would have.

So yes. Bracket of death seems entirely appropriate. But, like others have said, the d3 committee operates with a lot of financial restrictions and does a good job overall.

[kiko]

As for what we were referring to on Hoopsville... it was the IWU/Wash U / North Central/UWW bracket of eight teams - not the St. Thomas one. The bracket we are talking about has the #1, #2 and #3 regionally ranked teams from the Midwest along with the #3 West ranked team all meeting potentially in the second round and then the winners facing each other in the third round. This eliminates all but one of these teams and thus the "bracket of death."

What I heard on Hoopsville was that you asked the question in the context of the IWU/Wash U etc. bracket.  You didn't overtly state this was the bracket you were referring to, as it seemed sort of obvious that it was the tougher grouping.  But when Mike DeWitt answered, he made a reference to St. Thomas -- which struck me that maybe the committee thought the bracket of death was on the other side of the draw.

Not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things.  I actually thought that it may be a great example of a bunch of folks (i.e. - us) sitting outside the bubble getting into the weeds and presuming we've figured everything out, when in fact, those inside the bubble may have had a completely different take on things.

[John Gleich]

I'm having a little trouble figuring out this "Bracket of Death" thing. First off, is it an 8-team Div. III "region," or a 16-team Div. I "region?" Either could be called a "bracket."

Second, which bracket is this "Bracket of Death?" The talk from Hoopsville seems to say it the one with #1 St. Thomas. Straight seeding says the 16-team bracket should contain #1, #8, #9, and #16. What it actually contains, based on the D3HOOPS poll, is #1, #8, #9, #12, and #14. That's a little heavy, but not extremely so and only in the lower rankings. And it is properly divided between the two 8-team brackets. Based on Massey ratings, it has #1, #4, #8, #10, #16, and #17. And the top four of those are all in St. Thomas's 8-team region, so it is a little heavy by this measure.

But now let's look at Whitewater's bracket. Based on the D3HOOPS poll, where they are #3, it should contain #3, #6, #11, and #14. It actually contains #3, #5, #7, #10, and #17, which is heavier than St. Thomas's (based on where in the order the extra team is). And more of the imbalance is in Whitewater's 8-team bracket. Based on Massey Ratings, where Whitewater is #2 and the bracket should contain #2, #7, #10, and #15, they actually have #2, #3, #6, #12, and #22. And again, the top four are in Whitewater's 8-team bracket. And again, by this measure, it is heavier that St. Thomas's.

So I'd say it is the Whitewater/North Central/Ill. Wesleyan/Wash U. bracket that deserves the title. Each of these teams had a legitimate hope to win the championship, before being placed in the B.O.D., but only one can emerge to the round of eight. St. Thomas does have strong opponents, but (according to Massey, at least) none seem to be a serious threat to upset.

And what are we comparing this to? I have to guess it is the 2009 Men's bracket that comprised the major contributors to both of this year's candidate B.O.D.s. That 16-team bracket had the D3HOOPS #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #7, #8, and three more in the top 25. From Massey, these same ten teams were all in the top 11 (missing only #10). Wash U. emerged from that melee, and cruised to the title in Salem.

One problem I see here is that you're misconstruing seeds and rankings.

Yes, in the D-I tournament, a 1 seed plays a 16 seed (or at least they did before the play-in games). There would be 4 #1 seeds and 4#16 seeds.

So, in all likelihood, you would have the top 4 ranked teams ranked as #1 seeds, playing the 4 bottom teams (though it's likely not actually like this, due to automatic bids...)

So, this is what a "perfect" D-I bracket would look like:

#1 seed (#1 ranked) vs #16 seed (#64 "ranked") --> Region A
#1 seed (#2 ranked) vs #16 seed (#63 "ranked") --> Region B
#1 seed (#3 ranked) vs #16 seed (#62 "ranked") --> Region C
#1 seed (#4 ranked) vs #16 seed (#61 "ranked") --> Region D
#2 seed (#5 ranked) vs #15 seed (#60 "ranked") --> Region D
#2 seed (#6 ranked) vs #15 seed (#59 "ranked") --> Region C
#2 seed (#7 ranked) vs #15 seed (#58 "ranked") --> Region B
#2 seed (#8 ranked) vs #15 seed (#57 "ranked") --> Region A
#3 seed (#9 ranked) vs #14 seed (#56 "ranked") --> Region A
Etc.

So the #1 ranked team would be in a 16 team bracket with the #8, the #9, and the #16 ranked teams... but the first chance they'd have to play each other would be in the Elite 8. They would only play the #8 or #9 team... but not both (#8 and #9 would play in the Sweet 16).

So, this is what the road would look like for the #1 team:

1 vs 16
1 vs 8/9
1 vs 4/13 or 5/12
1 vs 2/15 or 3/14 or 6/11 or 7/10

This is regular stuff... we grew up on it watching the D-I tournament. We're used to it.

But what are these teams' rankings?

#1 vs #64
#1 vs #32/#33
#1 vs #16/#49 or #17/#48
#1 vs #8/#57 or #9/#56 or #24/#41 or #25/#40

So, the toughest path that the #1 seed could have...

Would be 64, 32, 16, 8.

That's with no upsets. Any upsets for the top team in any quadrant along the way, and the path gets easier for a #1 seed.


Now let's look at the St. Thomas bracket.

#19 Rose Hulman vs #12 Calvin
Northwestern vs #14 Stevens Point
#1 St. Thomas vs Aurora
#22 Wheaton vs ORV St. Norbert
#25 Va Wesleyan vs Delaware Valley
ORV Christopher Newport vs Rutgers Newark
#8 Williams vs Wesley
#9 Catholic vs Staten Island.

So St Thomas' route would look like this:

#1 vs Aurora
#1 vs #22
#1 vs #12/#14/#19
#1 vs #8/#9/#25

Aurora is not the worst team in the tournament, so their first game will be tougher than a #1 vs #64.
Their second game will likely be against a team 10 places ahead of the "ideal" listed above. Their third game would be against the #8 or #9 team.

In the "ideal" world, there would be 7 top 25 teams (one more than the other three quadrants if it was the #1 quadrant), but the UST bracket has 8

But that's going by the poll. How about Massey?

#1 vs #72 Aurora (that looks about right)
#1 vs #10 Wheaton/#28 St. Norbert (Way too early for a match-up vs a top 10 team... this shouldn't happen until Sweet 16 or Elite 8)
#1 vs #3 Stevens Point/#8 Calvin/#23 Rose Hulman/#83 Northwestern (Way too early for a match-up vs a top 3 team, shouldn't happen until the Final 4)
#1 vs #16 VA Wesleyan/#17 Williams/#24 Catholic/#36 Chris Newport/#47 Wesley/#67 Rutgers Newark/#119 Del Valley/#120 Staten Island

So, if these ratings are to be believed, then a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 match-up is to take place in round 2, a Final Four match-up is to happen in the Sweet 16, and then for the Elite 8, the game will be easier than the last two.

It's unbalanced. But, again, looking at the "perfect" bracket, this quadrant should have 7 top 25 teams. Instead there are 8. And there shouldn't be any "better" than 5, at the very least, and only two better than eight... but there are three.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

As for what we were referring to on Hoopsville... it was the IWU/Wash U / North Central/UWW bracket of eight teams - not the St. Thomas one. The bracket we are talking about has the #1, #2 and #3 regionally ranked teams from the Midwest along with the #3 West ranked team all meeting potentially in the second round and then the winners facing each other in the third round. This eliminates all but one of these teams and thus the "bracket of death."

What I heard on Hoopsville was that you asked the question in the context of the IWU/Wash U etc. bracket.  You didn't overtly state this was the bracket you were referring to, as it seemed sort of obvious that it was the tougher grouping.  But when Mike DeWitt answered, he made a reference to St. Thomas -- which struck me that maybe the committee thought the bracket of death was on the other side of the draw.

Not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things.  I actually thought that it may be a great example of a bunch of folks (i.e. - us) sitting outside the bubble getting into the weeds and presuming we've figured everything out, when in fact, those inside the bubble may have had a completely different take on things.

I believe his reference was along the lines of the fact they had trouble moving teams around and that they had a similiar challenge in the St. Thomas section with teams like the Tommies, Wheaton, Rose-Hulman, and St. Thomas.

However, I know having talked to Mike prior to the interview when referencing the bracket of death to him... the IWU/Wash U/North Central/UWW bracket was the one he knew I was talking about and vis versa.

Just for comparison:
- The IWU/Wash U/North Central/UWW bracket features #1, #2, and #3 from the Midwest and #3 from the West. (FYI: Transylvania is #7 in the Midwest)
- The St. Thomas/Rose-Hulman/Wheaton/UWSP bracket features #1 and #2 from the West and #4 and #5 from the Midwest. (FYI: Calvin is #5 in the Great Lakes)

Clearly the higher regionally ranked teams are facing off in the first example than the second.

[John Gleich]

We should all relax, I guess...especially comparing this seasons BOD to that 2009 aggregate.

As long as there are geographical concerns and demands involved in crafting the tournament, there will often be one or two talent-overloaded quadrants, and a couple of comparatively weak ones.  The Missouri State High School Activities Association bases its tournament by geographic arrangements in the district tournaments, without seeding the district winners.  So, the four paths to that final four can be significantly different, regarding the degree of difficulty.

Just gotta win...

Yep... for those who weren't around, in 2009, we had, in the second round, in the same region:

#1 St Thomas vs #4 Stevens Point
#2 Wash U vs #8 Whitewater
#3 Wheaton vs #5 Platteville
#7 Puget Sound vs #21 Whitworth

In the Sweet 16, it was
#2 Wash U vs #3 Wheaton
#1 St Thomas vs #7 Puget Sound

Wash U beat St. Thomas and cruised to the National Championship with two double digit wins in Salem.


Everything pales in comparison to this.

[WUPHF]

#1 St Thomas vs #4 Stevens Point
#2 Wash U vs #8 Whitewater
#3 Wheaton vs #5 Platteville
#7 Puget Sound vs #21 Whitworth

In the Sweet 16, it was
#2 Wash U vs #3 Wheaton
#1 St Thomas vs #7 Puget Sound

Wash U beat St. Thomas and cruised to the National Championship with two double digit wins in Salem.

And, to think, the closest game for the National Champs was actually the two point win in the first round over Lawrence.  The Vikings led for the last several minutes of the game before Aaron Thompson sank a three-pointer to take the lead and a last second layup to tie the game was no good.

[John Gleich]

#1 St Thomas vs #4 Stevens Point
#2 Wash U vs #8 Whitewater
#3 Wheaton vs #5 Platteville
#7 Puget Sound vs #21 Whitworth

In the Sweet 16, it was
#2 Wash U vs #3 Wheaton
#1 St Thomas vs #7 Puget Sound

Wash U beat St. Thomas and cruised to the National Championship with two double digit wins in Salem.

And, to think, the closest game for the National Champs was actually the two point win in the first round over Lawrence.  The Vikings led for the last several minutes of the game before Aaron Thompson sank a three-pointer to take the lead and a last second layup to tie the game was no good.

That IS interesting!

In 2010, UWSP beat Carleton by 1 (59-58) in the first round... then won the rest by 15, 7, 16, 12, and 5.

Point was by no means in a "bracket of death" in 2010... it was much more balanced than in 2009, but still, they were pushed to the limit in the first round.

[kiko]

As for what we were referring to on Hoopsville... it was the IWU/Wash U / North Central/UWW bracket of eight teams - not the St. Thomas one. The bracket we are talking about has the #1, #2 and #3 regionally ranked teams from the Midwest along with the #3 West ranked team all meeting potentially in the second round and then the winners facing each other in the third round. This eliminates all but one of these teams and thus the "bracket of death."

What I heard on Hoopsville was that you asked the question in the context of the IWU/Wash U etc. bracket.  You didn't overtly state this was the bracket you were referring to, as it seemed sort of obvious that it was the tougher grouping.  But when Mike DeWitt answered, he made a reference to St. Thomas -- which struck me that maybe the committee thought the bracket of death was on the other side of the draw.

Not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things.  I actually thought that it may be a great example of a bunch of folks (i.e. - us) sitting outside the bubble getting into the weeds and presuming we've figured everything out, when in fact, those inside the bubble may have had a completely different take on things.

I believe his reference was along the lines of the fact they had trouble moving teams around and that they had a similiar challenge in the St. Thomas section with teams like the Tommies, Wheaton, Rose-Hulman, and St. Thomas.

However, I know having talked to Mike prior to the interview when referencing the bracket of death to him... the IWU/Wash U/North Central/UWW bracket was the one he knew I was talking about and vis versa.

Just for comparison:
- The IWU/Wash U/North Central/UWW bracket features #1, #2, and #3 from the Midwest and #3 from the West. (FYI: Transylvania is #7 in the Midwest)
- The St. Thomas/Rose-Hulman/Wheaton/UWSP bracket features #1 and #2 from the West and #4 and #5 from the Midwest. (FYI: Calvin is #5 in the Great Lakes)

Clearly the higher regionally ranked teams are facing off in the first example than the second.

Thanks -- clearly I didn't have line of sight to whatever off-air conversations you'd had.  Without that context, his comment was not quite as clear.

[Titan Q]

And, to think, the closest game for the National Champs was actually the two point win in the first round over Lawrence.  The Vikings led for the last several minutes of the game before Aaron Thompson sank a three-pointer to take the lead and a last second layup to tie the game was no good.

I remember watching the round 3 game vs Wheaton (at Wheaton) - that was a real barnburner as well.

http://athletics.wheaton.edu/custompages/mbball/mbbarchivedstats/2009/secsemi2.htm

Wheaton led 52-51 with 3:08 to play and lost 55-52.

[Ralph Turner]

This discussion is great for newbies to the boards.  I think that the committee did a very good job of handling the challenge that is presented by the "D-3 basketball stronghold" that is a 500 mile radius of Chicago.

When you look at the 40-odd conferences in D-3, there are about 8-10 weaker conferences in the classification.  Most of them are located in a 300-mile radius from Hartford CT.  Until the presidents of D-3 institutions change to focus and emphasis of intercollegiate athletics in D3, we will be stuck with this every year.

Midwesterners can take pride in the quality of basketball played in the area.