The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.

[d3baseball411]

Morning snapshot (Rating is multiplying in-region winning percentage by NCAA SOS rating [2/3 OWP, 1/3 OOWP]).
1. Marietta      .4719
2. Wooster      .4039
3. Manchester  .3928
4. Case            .3812
5. Adrian          .3705
6. PS-Behrend  .3578
7. W&J              .3572
8. La Roche       .3541
9. Allegheny     .3369
10. Oberlin        .3358
11. Hope           .3334
12. JCU             .3282   

Big remaining games:
Case DH 4/30 vs BW, Case DH 5/4 @Marietta
JCU @ Wooster 4/30, JCU @ BW 5/1, JCU probably needs to sweep ONU too.
W&J @ Penn State Behred 5/5

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Glad to see more NCAC teams your ranking.

[forheavendial4999]

Morning snapshot (Rating is multiplying in-region winning percentage by NCAA SOS rating [2/3 OWP, 1/3 OOWP]).
1. Marietta      .4719
2. Wooster      .4039
3. Manchester  .3928
4. Case            .3812
5. Adrian          .3705
6. PS-Behrend  .3578
7. W&J              .3572
8. La Roche       .3541
9. Allegheny     .3369
10. Oberlin        .3358
11. Hope           .3334
12. JCU             .3282   

Big remaining games:
Case DH 4/30 vs BW, Case DH 5/4 @Marietta
JCU @ Wooster 4/30, JCU @ BW 5/1, JCU probably needs to sweep ONU too.
W&J @ Penn State Behred 5/5

Multiplying a decimal times another decimal?

[EttaFan1]

Tuesday's games provided for some interesting results for teams hoping to boost their regional ranking/pool C resume.

Case split a series with BW, needing a walkoff win in the ninth in he first game. 

Wooster soundly defeated John Carroll yesterday.

JCU and B-W play today.  Wooster plays Heidelberg.

Case is an interesting story this year.  They are certainly having a good year.  Currently they are 25-12.  Here is a look at their record against some key opponents.

In Region, ranked opponents
#2 Wooster 1-1
#9 JCU 2-1
#1 Marietta (Saturday May 4)

Ranked Regional Oppponents (out of region)
#6 (NY) St. John Fisher 2-1
#5 (Cen) Washington U 2-0 (In region game for CWRU as Washington is a member of the UAA)

Other Regional Series vs. "Better teams" (.500 or better overall)
Ohio Wesleyan 1-1
Baldwin Wallace 1-1
W & J 1-1
Emory 1-1 (part of the UAA)
Thiel 2-0
Oberlin 1-1
Heidelberg 2-1

Against regionally ranked opponents they are 7-3.  Against teams who are .500 or better overall they are 9-6. 

I don't know how their resume stands up to the other top pool "B" teams for one of those births, nor how it will stack up to the Pool C group.  Their record against regionally ranked opponents thus far is solid, but I would say their blemish is their record against the rest of the quality teams on their slate.  Their series against Marietta on saturday is signficant to helping their resume. 

[jos s]

the strength of sced stat is huge for case,  not many teams have played a tougher slate.

[EttaFan1]

Using numbers from the "Pool C Discussion on the national topics thread provided by forheavendial4999

Currently Case Western is 23-11 in region.  Their NCAA SOS rating is 39th and their OWP is rated 49th.  Their Regional Win Pct is .676.  They have two games left to go.  The series at Marietta will improve their SOS and OWP, significantly. 

If they win two, their Region win pct is .694 (25-11).  I think this makes them a lock for the regional based on their schedule strength and win pct.
If they split their region win pct is .667 (24-12).  Based on who made "the cut" in 2012, I think this puts them on the bubble but still in.
If they drop two, their region win pct is .639 (23-13).  Again based on who made "The cut" in 2012, This puts them squarely on the bubble, and makes it too close to call.

For example (thanks to forheavendial4999) 
In 2012:     Whitewater in.  RWP: .625 OWP rank 35 SOS rank 30. 
                  Neuman in.  RWP .667 OWP Rank 20 SOS rank 16
                  Ill Wesleyan in.  RWP .641 OWP rank 24 SOS Rank 21.
                 Chicago OUT.  RWP .633 OWP rank 9, SOS rank 9
                 ECSU OUT.  RWP .645 OWP rank 15, SOS rank 11

So how much will the DH at Marietta improve their OWP rank and SOS rank?  Then it comes down to who else is in the mix.  For example if Marietta and Wooster fail to win their respective pool A bids, it my push Case out of the tournament. 

• For example, let's say Marietta goes 4-1 in their five games this weekend (all in region), splitting with Case, and then goes 2-2 in the OAC  tournament (still in region).  (Wilmington hurts the SOS and OWP significantly.  Frostburg and Case will hopefully negate that.)  So if they are 6-3 over the next two weeks MC's regional win pct would be .777 (28-8). Their SOS and OWP would probably still be very strong.
• Then let's say Wooster wins two of three this weekend, and then goes 2-2 in the NCAC tournament.  By going 4-3 It pushes their regional record to 24-10.  Their in region WP is .705, their SOS and OWP numbers are currently stronger than the Spartans'.
• Case is 24-12 in region for a win pct of .667.  Their SOS and OWP numbers will improve.

And while it is a "national" group of the possible Pool C bids, if you add two schools like Wooster and Marietta to the pool C mix, it may be enough to push Case out of the tournament. 

There is a lot on the line Saturday for both Marietta (whom I feel is playing mostly for regional seeding at this point, barring a complete and total collapse) and Case (who is playing to qualify for the tournament).  I think Case is at a disadvantage by NOT having the opportunity to play in a conference tournament following the regular season.  They also will become cheerleaders for Wooster and Marietta for the NCAC and OAC tournaments.   

[forheavendial4999]

Pretty much how I see it. 1 win and Case is in good shape since they should get the benefit of doubt over Washington. Only 1 team has won at Marietta this year (and that was likely Pool B Huntingdon), and no Mideast region teams have beaten Marietta on the road or at a neutral site. So, needless to say, even 1 win for Case would be a big resume-builder.

You never know what's going to happen in conference tournaments. But a split would put Case in pretty good shape.

I don't agree with not having a conference tournament hurting Case. For one thing, don't they have one in Florida? That doesn't count against their game total, does it? For another, conference tournaments are another chance to lose. If they went into the weekend 24-12 in region and then went 2 and out in a conference tournament, that would hurt a lot. They could play for a Pool A berth but nothing about that is at all guaranteed in any conference they'd be likely to play in regionally.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Yes the UAA has a tournament in the spring
University of Rochester, Case, Emory, Bradies and  Washington U go down south and play. Chicago does not participate because there spring break is a different date than the other UAA schools.

Wash U and Case shared the title.

http://www.uaa.rochester.edu/weekly_sport_updates/BB_Update.html

[jos s]

bottom line, Case has an outstanding record, and played one of the toughest sceds in the nation....if that does not get them into post season, it is a real shame.....  proves hollow wins vs. less talented teams is more important than pushing to be the best you can be as a program.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Lets face it, the tournament is not about the best teams. Most of the best teams get in but as long as it is set up the way it is for equal access it will not be that way. Their will be Not so good Pool A teams from Bad pool A conferences pushing out deserving Pool C candidates. And it gets worse when their is a upset in a pool A tourney and the best team gets knocked out and takes their superior numbers into Pool C.

Case has decided that they prefer the Pool B\C route. Otherwise they would lobby to join a Pool A conference (Cough,NCAC,cough) and take a shot at Pool A. Case has chosen what they feel is best for all their sports. It is what it is.

If they have the numbers and their are not too many upsets they have a chance.

[EttaFan1]

Lets face it, the tournament is not about the best teams. Most of the best teams get in but as long as it is set up the way it is for equal access it will not be that way. Their will be Not so good Pool A teams from Bad pool A conferences pushing out deserving Pool C candidates. And it gets worse when their is a upset in a pool A tourney and the best team gets knocked out and takes their superior numbers into Pool C.

Case has decided that they prefer the Pool B\C route. Otherwise they would lobby to join a Pool A conference (Cough,NCAC,cough) and take a shot at Pool A. Case has chosen what they feel is best for all their sports. It is what it is.

If they have the numbers and their are not too many upsets they have a chance.

Couldn't agree more.  Look at Chicago last year, pool B team with strong numbers in SOS and OWP, they were left sitting at home.  Same with ECSU last year. Strong SOS and OWP, yet left at home. 

Who is to say:  what happens this year may differ entirely from what happened last year.  Bottom line is somebody deserving will be left at home and there will be plenty of butt-hurt to go around.  Based on their "body of work" is Case deserving? The absolutely are (as was Chicago last year).  Either outcome will not surprise me when it comes to Case. It will come down to conference tournaments and the other teams which are pushed to the pool C group.

[ADL70]

Case has decided that they prefer the Pool B\C route. Otherwise they would lobby to join a Pool A conference (Cough,NCAC,cough) and take a shot at Pool A. Case has chosen what they feel is best for all their sports. It is what it is.

When the affiliation with PAC for football was announced, I inquired whether consideration had been given to baseball affiliation as well.  I was told it was an interesting thought, but was not under consideration.  PAC has an odd number of teams.

[EttaFan1]

2013 regional rankings part 2 (last week I n parenthesis)

1. Marietta (1)
2.  Manchester (2)
3. Wooster (4)
4.  La Roche (3)
5.  Case (5)
6.  W&J (NR)
7.  Hope (7)
8.  John Carroll (9)
9.  Thomas More (6)

Dropped out Adrian.

[forheavendial4999]

2013 regional rankings part 2 (last week I n parenthesis)

1. Marietta (1)
2.  Manchester (2)
3. Wooster (4)
4.  La Roche (3)
5.  Case (5)
6.  W&J (NR)
7.  Hope (7)
8.  John Carroll (9)
9.  Thomas More (6)

Dropped out Adrian.

Did W&J beat anyone special in the intervening period?

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Case has decided that they prefer the Pool B\C route. Otherwise they would lobby to join a Pool A conference (Cough,NCAC,cough) and take a shot at Pool A. Case has chosen what they feel is best for all their sports. It is what it is.

When the affiliation with PAC for football was announced, I inquired whether consideration had been given to baseball affiliation as well.  I was told it was an interesting thought, but was not under consideration.  PAC has an odd number of teams.

+1 ADL, I had forgotten about the PAC affiliation. Case was a founding member of the NCAC and a part of the conference for 15 years till they left in 1999