Top Conferences and NCAA Bids

[PaulNewman]

Perhaps this has been covered before, and let me acknowledge at the outset that my bias is that the NCAC should get more than 2 NCAA bids per year on average.

IMHO, the top conferences are NESCAC and UAA, probably historically in that order, although I think the UAA arguably has been stronger the past couple of years.  There are some other conferences which may have 1 and occasionally 2 teams as good or better than the best in NESCAC and UAA (Loras, Dominican, Trinity, Wheaton, Calvin, etc), but they do not have near the depth (or please correct me where I am wrong).  The UAA had 5 bids last year and NESCAC 4, I believe.

So what conferences are #'s 3-5?  Again, IMHO, the top contenders are Centennial, NCAC, NJAC, Liberty, and maybe the MIAC, USAC, and Landmark.  Do the CCIW, IIAC and/or MIAA have sufficient depth to trump any of those?  Also not well-versed on the ODAC, SCIAC, and NWC.  NEWMAC has some good teams but is small, and the same for SAA.  Comments appreciated.

And my question is whether conferences #'s 3 thru 5 or 6 should typical garner 3 bids if the top 2 are getting 4-5.

[Wild10]

I think that the Centennial as a whole has been down for the past two years.  The top team(s) are still extremely competitive nationally - Dickinson two years ago, Swarthmore and Haverford last year.  And Swarthmore should be outstanding this year with almost every major piece returning after a Sweet 16 run last year. 

Pool C has only 19 bids, so if the NESCAC and UAA each get four teams in, we're down to 13 Pool C spots...year in and year out to say that the Centennial, NCAC, NJAC, Liberty, etc. each deserve three bids, that takes an additional 6-8 Pool C spots right there which, in some years, may make sense, and in other years, simply doesn't.  Having followed Centennial soccer pretty extensively of late, that Conference provides a perfect case study.  Last year, two teams deserved to make the tournament and both did.  In 2011, MAYBE Johns Hopkins was a bit of a snub at 7-1-1 in Conference but was only 10-5-3 overall.  And in 2010, Swarthmore and Muhlenberg were clearly deserving and with a weaker Pool C field Johns Hopkins got in despite an 8-8-2 record overall.  So in the last three years alone, you have a good case where a league deserves one bid, two bids, and gets a little lucky with three. 

Ultimately, it is much more about region and performance in region and the balance between conference and non-conference schedule strength...if you do well in a strong conference, it is reflected in the NCAA data at the end of the year.  And to my memory, at least by the D3soccer.com math in the past few years, there haven't been that many "snubs" in any given year...

[NokeAlum15]

At one time 99-2004, the ODAC was deserving of 2 bids annually, but since then, It's my observation that it's been a one bid conference.  Roanoke has stayed a top 5-10 regional team since then and the way Lynchburg has come up the ranks, we can see that possibly return.

Just my 2 cents

[PaulNewman]

Let me put this another way as a NCAC fan.....what conferences other than NESCAC and UAA have 6-7 teams stronger than Ohio Wesleyan, Depauw, Denison, Kenyon, Allegheny, Hiram, Oberlin? 

Hiram didn't get a bid last year with a record of 15-3-1.  Allegheny had a similar record. 

And in the example above, even with a weak pool, JHU getting in with a record of 8-8-2 in 2010 must have had something to do with perceived strength of conference.  I'm guessing that there were a bunch of teams with substantially better records that didn't get in that year.

[Wild10]

I think it was actually a lot of name reputation with Hopkins that year...

Massey ratings, which seem to be a pretty accurate metric, put NCAC 7th last year out of Division III Conferences. 

http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=csoc2012&sub=11620&c=1

Third in 2011, 6th in 2010, albeit its a metric of top to bottom strength as opposed to the relative power of the elite teams. 

For what it is worth, Massey had DePauw 23, OWU 26, Allegheny 35, and Hiram 45.
Compare Centennial: Swarthmore 7, Dickinson 24, Haverford 28, F&M 40, Muhlenberg 44
                UAA:          Brandeis 16,   CMU 18, Rochester 29, Chicago 36, Wash U 41, Emory 43
                NESCAC:    Amherst 2, Williams 5, Wesleyan 21, Tufts 30, Bowdoin 47.

So at least by this one metric, in a down year for the Centennial, there were five teams better than Hiram.  In the UAA, there were six teams better than Hiram, and in the NESCAC, there were three teams better than DePauw and four better than Allegheny. 

And when it comes to at-large bids, seven are gone by the time you get to DePauw and 15 by the time you get to Allegheny (so Allegheny is right on the bubble as a last four team in potentially by this metric.) 

Just some thoughts. 

[PaulNewman]

Thanks for that link!  Interesting to see UAA over NESCAC for several years running.  After those 2 some significant variation.  The NJAC shows well.  Liberty looks volatile.  Centennial and NCAC both have moved around a lot.  Unless I'm missing something the rating meshes the SAA and SCAC together, so that seems a little skewed. 

Obviously this is D3, but it would be interesting to see a little more outside region play in the early season, like 4 teams from Centennial or NCAC going against 4 NESCACs.

On the 2012 ratings, Depauw and OWU's ratings seem low.  Those were top 15 teams IMHO.  I can see that Hiram and Allegheny would be debatable, but not getting a bid at 15-3-1 is a little tough to swallow.  With your point on name recognition, I doubt Denison or Kenyon would be left out with that same record. 

Do you think there is any East Coast bias in general when evaluating these leagues?

Looking forward to the season.

[Madhatter5]

Being someone who has been following the IIAC these last 5-10 years I would say that back in the 07-09 years 2 bids were deserved from that conference with maybe a 3rd as well. Those teams being Loras, Wartburg, and Central. But as of late I feel most the teams, besides Loras, have dropped off and make the conference a 1 big only conference.

The MIAC always have good, strong defensive teams that beat up on each other throughout the season and are pretty dead by the time playoffs come around.

My two cents.

[Brother Flounder]

From top to bottom, the NESCAC would probably be the strongest.......

[PaulNewman]

The first post endorsed NESCAC and UAA as the top 2 leagues.  Between those 2, I would argue that the bottom of the UAA is tougher than the bottom of the NESCAC. 

Side note:  Brandeis doesn't get half of the attention of the top 4-5 NESCACs, and Brandeis arguably will be the best team in New England this year.  Most of a very good, elite 8 team returning and what appears to be a very strong (and large) incoming frosh class.

The original question was...if NESCAC and UAA get 4-5 bids a year, are there any other conferences that typically deserve 3?

[PaulNewman]

Current standing of NCAC teams

In national polls, OWU is #2 in NSCAA and D3soccer with Depauw #20 in NSCAA and #11 in D3soccer, and Denison receiving votes in D3soccer and off to very strong start.

Regionally (Great Lakes), OWU is #1, Depauw is #3, Denison is at #5, Allegheny is at #9, followed by Kenyon at #10.  Oberlin has dropped out after appearing previously.  I expect OWU and Depauw to maintain high rankings, Kenyon to rise, Allegheny to drop, and Denison being the wild card.

We all know the NCAC won't get 4 bids (and may not get 3), but OWU, Depauw, Denison and Kenyon all appear to be NCAA tourney worthy squads.  Not sure about Allegheny and Oberlin.  Bottom line is that this is a strong year for the NCAC.

[PaulNewman]

OWU remains undefeated with away win at Ohio Northern 2-1 in typical OWU fashion trailing 1-0 and scoring twice in final 13 minutes.

Denison wins in last 30 seconds of 1st OT vs a previously unbeaten Capital team to stay unbeaten themselves at 6-0-1.

[PaulNewman]

NCAC update -- OWU likely #1 next week.  DePauw solidly in the top 10.  Denison cracks top 25 and still unbeaten.  Kenyon lurking in the background with big away contest at DePauw looming this weekend.

[PaulNewman]

In addition to the teams noted above, Oberlin is now 7-1-1 and has an early season win at Hope on its resume, and Allegheny keeps winning as well.

[DagarmanSpartan]

Watch out for Case Western Reserve!

With a victory over John Carroll yesterday, they remain undefeated at 4-0-3.

The upcoming matches against Hiram and Oberlin will be interesting.  Of course, the UAA conference schedule will always be tough.

If we beat Oberlin, it might help to make up for our recent embarrassing football loss to the Yeomen; we had beaten them 29 straight times prior to that!

[casualfan]

Dominican University loses their first NACC game in their history, 1-0 to Benedictine U! They are now  85-1-3 in NACC play. Could this be the year another team makes the NCAA tournament from the NACC? Maybe Aurora, MSOE, etc.?