Top Conferences and NCAA Bids

Sirius90 · October 03, 2013, 12:56:59 PM

OhioSocYea · October 07, 2013, 12:44:33 AM

Big game coming up in the NCAC, Ohio Wesleyan vs. Depauw on Saturday.

Any predictions?

PaulNewman · October 07, 2013, 10:24:34 AM

This will be an extremely competitive game and brutally hard-fought. DePauw is very physical, big, and athletic. OWU can certainly play a chippy game but not their preference. You can bet this is a game OWU does not want to lose, as DePauw is the only school to really have their number over the past couple of years. They will likely meet again once or twice, so this one isn't necessarily the most important but it's the most important right now. Jay Martin will have his team primed. OWU wins 3-1 and then Kenyon knocks off OWU a week and a half later at OWU.

lastguyoffthebench · October 07, 2013, 12:36:37 PM

OWU 2, DePauw 1 (OT)

OWUSoccer · October 07, 2013, 07:38:49 PM

Competing dynamics: DePauw hasn't really played anybody, but I'd venture to guess they're in OWU's head a little bit. Having already tied once in conference play, pressure is on DePauw to get a result.

Generally speaking, you can't really go head-to-head in an open game with OWU unless you have the horses to do it (Messiah), so I'd still expect DePauw to sit in and try to hit on the counter. What would really make it interesting if is DePauw scores first, because OWU has had a habit all season of allowing the first goal. Could they recover again?

PaulNewman · October 07, 2013, 08:39:40 PM

OWUSoccer, with all due respect, and understanding that you no doubt have a high standard, Centre and Kenyon are both pretty good teams that DePauw has played. In fact, if memory serves, Centre knocked OWU out of the NCAA tourney last year. That said, I'd be shocked if DePauw gets another result against OWU this weekend.

OWUSoccer · October 08, 2013, 09:29:32 AM

Point taken, but I'd also note that those are the only two teams DePauw has played that are even over .500 aside from Knox (who I admittedly know nothing about). And yes, Centre did knock OWU out last year, but I'd argue their results this year, where OWU has already equalled last year's win total and Centre is 5-3-2, speak a little louder.

I don't mean that as a knock on DePauw - they are a good team, and you can only beat the people placed in front of you. However, I think you started this thread to discuss potential NCAA bids, and this is where that SOS comes into play. If Centre doesn't start winning games, DePauw currently has zero quality wins, at least with regards to the criteria used by the NCAA regional committee. This puts a lot of pressure on them in conference to beat OWU, or to win the conference tournament, just to get into the NCAA tournament.

For example, if it comes down to Carnegie Mellon with 5 losses/draws, or DePauw with only 3 (tie with Kenyon and let's say 2 Ls elsewhere), Carnegie will get that spot. I'm with you, and think the NCAC is strong this year and should get a couple of teams, but DePauw's schedule makes their margin for error very small.

PaulNewman · October 08, 2013, 09:57:17 AM

Understood, and I admit I don't know a lot about how SOS plays into the bids, but I would assume DePauw as the #5 or #6 team in the country is fairly safe if they lose to OWU, lose another game or tie someone, and fail to win the NCAC tournament. I guess they also could be in trouble if some team other than OWU (or them) won the NCAC tourney. I think the bigger question, which relates to why I started the thread, is whether the NCAC is worthy of 3 bids. I believe it is, but of course as you note Centre struggling doesn't help DePauw or Kenyon nor does Calvin picking up losses which downgrades Kenyon's win there. Oberlin had a nice early win over Hope. Oberlin in theory is very much in the mix, although dropping points to Witt could be a killer. In short, I expect a team out of Denison, Kenyon, Allegheny and Oberlin to emerge as a legit 3rd NCAC bid.

PaulNewman · October 09, 2013, 10:17:43 PM

Capital knocks off Ohio Northern 2-0. Great Lakes Region wide open after OWU and DePauw.

lastguyoffthebench · October 12, 2013, 01:56:31 AM

Brad McCarty going for his 100th win in his FIFTH SEASON vs none other than "rival" E-town...

PaulNewman · October 13, 2013, 12:39:43 PM

Well, I got OWU-DePauw correct. 3-1 OWU with all goals scored in the last 12-13 minutes. Remarkable how many times OWU scores a backbreaking goal somwhere between the 73rd and 80th minutes. Uncanny actually, and very demoralizing to opponents who have played them tooth and nail to lose late. They beat Denison last year literally at the buzzer.

Despite a good win earlier over Denison, Allegheny appears to be fading, dropping points yesterday to Wabash and with some tough tilts ahead. Denison vs Kenyon this week is big and then somewhat depending on that result Kenyon vs OWU a week later. Oberlin is sporting a very gaudy record, but the killer part of their schedule is on the horizon with the top 5 teams (other than themselves) remaining.

OWUSoccer · October 13, 2013, 11:33:03 PM

Spot on, and from what I've seen the late goals are a function of just wearing teams down. Case in point, OWU brought their 3 top scorers (combined 20 goals, 12 assists thus far) off the bench yesterday.

Here's a link to the highlights, the best of which is easily OWU's second goal (by the right back no less).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrlOz0JjnD0

NEPAFAN · October 14, 2013, 09:59:00 AM

USMMA is not playing due to the government shutdown. If this continues how does this affect the Landmark , they have already played 2 conference games? Do you just wipe those results any pretend USMMA did not have a season??

PaulNewman · October 14, 2013, 09:22:45 PM

Is Christan Shirk OK? Or gone? He does great work and is a joy to read, but I noticed no "Flybys" or other articles since Week 3.

Christan Shirk · October 18, 2013, 01:21:42 AM

Quote from: NCAC New England on October 14, 2013, 09:22:45 PM
Is Christan Shirk OK? Or gone? He does great work and is a joy to read, but I noticed no "Flybys" or other articles since Week 3.

Thank you for the compliment. I am fine, just have not had the time to contribute as I would like last season and this one. I have a 2-1/2 year old daughter and a 14 month old son, and they have changed my life, my priorities, and my free time for hobbies such as writing for D3soccer.com. I miss being able to do the research and write the columns, but family needs to come first and between them and a full-time job, there's little time left. And this season has also overlapped with us making an offer on and buying a house; we settled a week ago and have been moving in the past week. I am hopeful that next year I will be able to contribute more again. We'll see. Again, thanks for the kind words.

P.S. If anyone out there has a serious interest in writing for the site, let me or Jim Matson know. We'd love to have more original content on the site.