Top Conferences and NCAA Bids

[PaulNewman]

Christan, thanks for checking in.  Congrats on all of the above.  Nothing better than being the parent of a couple of toddlers.  Life is good.  I'm sure D3 soccer is ranking very low on your priority list.

That said, would be nice if you could chime in at tournament bid time!  Your analysis last year (and I'm sure in prior years) was outstanding.

[PaulNewman]

Big weekend for conference and bid positioning.

In the NESCAC, after Amherst which should be safe, there appear to be 6-7 teams jockeying for playoff seeding and for what I would assume will be 3 other NCAA bids.  When factoring in schedules teams #2-#8 are essentially tied coming down the stretch.

Big weekend in the UAA with all teams playing twice starting with full slate today. 

In the NCAC, Oberlin gets a great opportunity to prove they are a serious contender with an away match at DePauw.  The Oberlin schedule is brutal for the stretch run, and a result in Greencastle would go a long way for their confidence and chances.  Allegheny gets the next crack at #1 OWU on Saturday before Kenyon travels to OWU on Tuesday.  Allegheny is likely going to need an upset win somewhere along the way if the Gators hope to snag a NCAC tourney spot.  Kenyon's win over Denison this week puts them in a good spot. If the Lords take care of Wabash tomorrow then they can take their best shot at OWU without too much pressure, although a result would certainly boost their national standing.  Denison, despite a very good record thus far, already has losses to Allegheny and Kenyon, and is going to need some big wins down the stretch (probably including against DePauw or OWU) if the Big Red hope to edge out Allegheny and Oberlin for a playoff berth.

I'm curious to see how the Centennial plays out.  A #10 national ranking for Dickinson seems high given a loss to Ursinus and a draw since then that was probably unexpected.  Curious to see who and how many will get bids in this conference with F&M, Swat, and I assume Haverford very much in the mix.

Watch out for Wheaton (Ill).  The Thunder look to be making a big push.  I see a Wheaton-Loras re-match down the road.

[gustiefan04]

Does anyone know when the first set of NCAA rankings will be release? Its got to be soon, I would imagine.

[LaPaz]

this wednesday

[PaulNewman]

Huge away win by Oberlin over DePauw, and must be taken seriously.  Oberlin now something like 12-1-2.  Must be best start to a season in more than 30 years.  Congrats to the Yeoman, but they still face Denison away, OWU, Allegheny, and Kenyon away.

DePauw now may need to buckle down to ensure a conference tourney slot and stay on track for a NCAA bid (although they are a threat to win the conference tourney outright as they have 2 years in a row on the OWU home field).  Their season could come down to a dicey game away at Denison as Denison most likely will badly need a win as well. 

OWU throttles Allegheny 6-0 and it could have been even worse.  Next test is surging Kenyon coming to town on Tuesday, and then OWU is away at Oberlin next weekend.

[PaulNewman]

Almost nailed it -- OWU 1 Kenyon 1 Final

Denison brings Oberlin back to earth 3-0.

[PaulNewman]

In the NCAC...

Oberlin still controls its destiny and will finish 1st if can run the table against OWU, Allegheny and away at Kenyon.  That seems unlikely, although if the somehow pull off what would seem like a massive upset at home against OWU then suddenly the task looks doable.  They also could lose all 3 and fail to make the NCAC tourney.  They most likely have to win the Allegheny game (and Allegheny is basically reduced to a spoiler role now) and then even a draw in either of the other 2 games would provide some security.

Kenyon has a trap game away at Hiram.  If they can win that one Kenyon is pretty much a lock for the #2 spot and could even finish #1 if they get some help with OWU from Oberlin or Denison.

Denison closes with OWU and DePauw, although both are at home.  Assuming an away win at Wabash tomorrow, they may need to win one of those last 2 games to make the NCAC tourney.  The last game with DePauw could be a great one as both teams may need it.

DePauw has Allegheny away tomorrow, and assuming they get that one DePauw's season may come down to the final game away at Denison, unless Oberlin loses all 3 of their final games, as Oberlin has the head-to-head edge on DePauw.

There is a scenario where Oberlin, Denison, and DePauw could all finish 5-3-1 and require going to secondary tiebreakers but that scenario I believe would be dependent on Denison beating OWU and then DePauw losing to Allegheny but beating Denison.

BTW, OWU hasn't lost a regular season conference in like forever.  The tie with Kenyon was actually the first tie they've had in conference (regular season) in a long time.

[PaulNewman]

The battle for at large spots appears tighter than ever.

The NESCAC is too jumbled to figure out.  Amherst looks to be the only safe team with Williams almost safe although a quarterfinal conference tourney loss might put them in jeopardy.  The question is whether they get 3 or 4 bids.  Given what is going on elsewhere 4 seems like a stretch.  Gordon continues to roll with Roger Williams and Western New England in the picture.  And will the NEWMAC get more than 1 team?  Brandeis has a high regional ranking but is near the bottom of the UAA with two UAA games to go.  I would assume they have to win both of those to be viable.

The Centennial is wild.  Dickinson in my view has been overranked all season and took a beating yesterday from F&M.  Then there are Swat and Haverford with Haverford besting Swat yesterday.  The Centennial has gotten 3 before.

In the NCAC, credit to Oberlin for bouncing back from Denison loss to tie top-ranked OWU.  That's two ties in a row for OWU who no doubt will lose their #1 ranking this week.  Oberlin has huge trap game with Allegheny Wednesday, and although Allegheny has been eliminated from a conference playoff spot they might embrace role of spoiler especially since Oberlin knocked Allegheny out of the playoffs last year.  Allegheny got a bad break yesterday with a PK call against DePauw.  Kenyon took care of business against Hiram and is in a good spot where they could still finish #1 if Denison gets a result against OWU (unlikely but Denison has to have at least a draw to stay alive) and can do no worse than 3rd if they lose their last game at home to Oberlin.  Oberlin can finish as high as 2nd and no lower than 4th.  The last game with Kenyon could determine which team has a home game in the NCAC playoffs and they could play again in their next game.  DePauw likely can't get higher than 3rd but will only finish outside of the playoffs if Denison gets a result against OWU and DePauw loses to Denison at Denison in the final game.  Bottom line is NCAC has 5 teams this year with impressive overall records.  Denison really shot itself in the foot losing to Wabash yesterday.  I'm biased, but I think the NCAC deserves at least 3 bids this year.

Will the NCAC situation be impacted by the OAC race?  Ohio Northern is in the driver's seat with a win over John Carroll last night but wasn't even ranked regionally last week.  John Carroll now has just the 1 conference loss and a very impressive overall record.  They have a big game with regionally ranked Heidelberg coming up.  So the OAC is probably going to get 2 bids?

The UAA is a real wild card.  Emory, Rochester and Carnegie Mellon look to be in good positions.  And then there still are Brandeis, Chicago and Wash U.  5 bids out of the UAA again would be too many from my viewpoint, but even getting 4 seems questionable. 

I don't know the other conferences well enough to comment, although the Liberty has some very good teams in a dogfight as well.

The only guarantee is that with only 19 pool C bids at least a few teams are going to be very, very disappointed.

[PaulNewman]

Can someone explain how the at large bids work?  I get that the regional rankings are critical, but are there a certain number of slots per region that are then filled based on the regional rankings?  Or does the committee get down to comparing let's say a John Carroll or Oberlin with a Bowdoin or Roger Williams?  In other words, does it ultimately come down to comparing teams from different regions?  And if a clear choice like an Amherst or OWU doesn't get their conference's automatic bid because of losing in their tournaments, does that have the effect of knocking out another team in their own region or in ANY region?

[Ron Boerger]

The committees rank the teams in each region (that have not already received Pool A/B bids), then they compare each region's top team with the other regions' top team and select the best by the criteria the NCAA defines.   Say the top team in the Midwest region is the one selected; then the #2 team is promoted to the top of the Midwest list and they do the comparisons all over again.   That process is repeated until all Pool C bids have been awarded.

It DOES ultimately get down to comparing teams from other regions per the criteria.  Teams with high winning percentages, strength of schedule, and wins over other regionally ranked teams will have the advantage over teams lacking in any of those areas.    In your example it would be all about how OWU or Amherst compares to the other team when the teams are regionally ranked prior to the selections being made.

[jknezek]

If it works the same as in football then each Regional Ranking committee comes up with a final ranking list before they sit in committee. Each committee then puts the first team on their list without an AQ up for discussion against the other regional first teams. It goes in rounds as one team is selected from the first group. Then a replacement from the selected region is put up, the second team from the list not receiving an AQ, and the discussion goes around again. There are no set spots for regions, but you can only put one team up at a time and that team cannot be "taken down" unless they come off the board holding a "C" ticket. So if you have a bunch of conferences where the overwhelming favorite fails to win the AQ, then it gets very messy for power conferences with depth.

How exactly the teams are compared is a bit beyond me, but at least in football it is done with an emphasis on SOS and results (not necessarily wins) against RR opponents. With so many more games and cross region play, perhaps soccer is weighted slightly differently.

** Ron beat me to the punch...

[PaulNewman]

Thanks to both of you.  So, if I am following correctly, if let's say Oberlin ends up ranked #4 in Great Lakes and the committee never gets past #3 on the Great Lakes list then Oberlin will not even get a hearing/discussion.  Is that right?  You can't jump down a spot or two within region to pull a team in for discussion even if some or most think that team is better or at least worthy of discussion about whether they are better?

[jknezek]

That's correct. You can't be discussed if you don't make it to the table. And you can only make it to the table if your own Regional Ranking committee puts you there. So if number 3 doesn't come off the board, and you are number 4, then you don't get a chance to be discussed.

"most think that team is better or at least worthy of discussion about whether they are better?"

I'm not sure what you are going for here. What most? The Regional Committee ranks the teams so the "most" of that committee wouldn't disagree with itself. They've already discussed it and the "most" have put the teams in a 3/4 setup prior to the committe call. The other Regional Committee's aren't going to be real concerned with whether your 4 is better than your 3, they are going to be concerned with getting their current candidate off the board or selecting the best candidate from those on the board.

If the "most" is fans, well, there are relatively few of those that are going to be more educated regarding DIII soccer than the regional committees. Finally, you probably won't know the final Regional Rankings from each region, or who was on/off the board. We can guess at it, and occassionally we get an interview or two through the D3 sites (primarily in football and basketball) that give some insight into the committees, but mostly it's a bit of a black box.

[PaulNewman]

Thanks.  Not sure what I was after either!  I guess just that whether you are #3 or #4 or #4 or #5 can be critical and obviously there can be very thin lines between those teams.  But as you suggest, obviously the committees know this.  Do you know if they weight last 5 games heavier than a middle 5 game stretch, or like a big win early vs a big win late?

[WLCALUM83]

Update on the NACC:

Benedictine-after being picked to finish 7th in the conference, clinched the top seed for the NACC tournament--Dominican, Aurora, MSOE and Edgewood are also in.  CUW and WLC are fighting for the last spot. WLC gets Lakeland and CUW gets Edgewood. If the Falcons and Warriors finish tied. WLC gets in, having beaten CUW head to head.--

(casual fan cheering)