Top Conferences and NCAA Bids

[Ambush004]

DePauw spot can be up for grabs but Messiah will be upset.  You heard it here first!

[lastguyoffthebench]

Messiah has ZERO chance of getting upset in the MAC...  ZERO I tell ya!

[PaulNewman]

Lastguy, I think the poster meant the Final Four, but of course likely an upset if Messiah doesn't get that far as well

Exciting day of soccer today.  Fate of a lot of good teams on the line.

[Saint of Old]

From here on out, all games are playoff games.

[OWUSoccer]

DePauw is in serious danger of missing out on the NCAA tournament altogether.  After coming back from a 2-0 deficit to tie Denison, DePauw sits at 14-2-2 but has zero wins over ranked opponents (record of 0-2-2).  They get the best possible opportunity to lock up a spot this week with a rematch at OWU, but if they lose that game, I think there's a good chance they're on the outside looking in. 

Comparing resumes for teams 2-4 in the NCAC:

Team A: 14-2-2 (5-2-2 NCAC), 0-2-2 versus ranked opponents, best win home against Knox or Centre
Team B: 13-3-3 (6-0-3 NCAC), 2-0-3 versus ranked opponents, best win neutral against Calvin
Team C: 13-2-4 (5-1-3 NCAC), 1-1-2 versus ranked opponents, best wins at Team A and at Hope (who will probably be ranked next week).

I seriously don't know who you pick there. A = DePauw, B = Kenyon, C = Oberlin.  Now, let's assume OWU wins the NCAC tournament so DePauw ends at 14-3-2, 0-3-1 versus ranked opponents (Denison no longer ranked), best win home against Knox or Centre. 

Scenario 1: Kenyon beats Oberlin. Kenyon would be 14-4-3, 2-1-3 versus ranked, best win neutral against Calvin or home against Oberlin.  Oberlin would be 13-3-4, 2-1-2 versus ranked opponents (Hope ranked, Denison not), best wins at DePauw and at Hope.

Scenario 2: Oberlin beats Kenyon.  Oberlin is 14-3-4, 3-1-2 versus ranked opponents, best wins at DePauw, at Kenyon, at Hope.  Kenyon 13-4-3, 1-1-3 versus ranked, best win neutral against Calvin.

I think in either case the winner of Kenyon-Oberlin gets the nod over DePauw.  Now, Depauw could take out OWU and make this a moot point, but interesting nonetheless.

[PaulNewman]

Good analysis OWUSoccer.

I think the winner of Kenyon-Oberlin is in.  I think the question, assuming OWU wins, is whether they get 3 teams, in which case who would get the nod between the loser of Kenyon vs Oberlin and DePauw.  If DePauw beats OWU I still think they get 3, and of course the winner of Kenyon vs Oberlin will like their chances better in a home game vs DePauw in that scenario. 

In terms of the 3 team argument remember that NESCAC and UAA may get less than usual.  IMHO the NCAC has 4 deserving teams.

[PaulNewman]

Great Lakes deserves 4-5 at large bids -- 3 from NCAC, 1 from OAC, and CMU if CMU needs it.

In North, Carleton and St Olaf should both get in with Luther on the fence.

The South Atlantic is stacked.  Probably all 7 of the regionally ranked teams here should get in, and that's not even counting Randolph that has been nationally ranked most of the year and is still something like 14-1-1 and Christopher Newport might be on the fence.  Didn't calculate how many at large bids we might be looking at here once the AQs are taken off the board.

The East seems pretty clear cut and will have to see how the AQs flush out (e.g. Rochester needing an at large or not).

The Mid-Atlantic is confusing to me.  Don't know all the regionally ranked teams that well, and Haverford and Swat aren't even ranked.

The Central seems weak, and noteworthy that Dominican and Hope aren't ranked (yet).

New England has a ton of conferences so will have to see how that shakes out, but I'd be surprised if there are more than 5-6 at large bids here (2 NESCACs, MIT or Wheaton, Brandeis, and 1 or 2 more).

Don't know the West but doesn't appear strong.

[KICKIN95]

The North will have Wartburg in before St Olaf. Luther has to get an AQ or take the Final match into OT to have a chance.

[PaulNewman]

I was presuming Wartburg as in already.

[Durantula]

I agree with kickin... that would be 3 at large bids for the north and four with luther. The north has 4 AQ and one pool b bid (oshkosh) With three at-large bids that would be 8 teams from the north? Is that possible? It looked like the last two years only 6 came from the north although i've heard some of the other regions are a bit weaker this year...?

[OWUSoccer]

Wednesday will really lay out the landscape for everything with many (most) conference semifinals taking place and the last official regional rankings coming out.  Should be a crazy week.

[PaulNewman]

Well, someone probably just lost a spot.  Gordon gets knocked off by RWU and surely will scoop up one of the at large bids.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Well there goes another bubble bursted...  Lycoming advances past Messiah in PKs...

[lastguyoffthebench]

Add Montclair to the Pool C.   

I would expect 3 NJAC teams to get in, not sure about TCNJ after tonight's result.  Camden could have put in 6 or 7, but TCNJ gk made some great saves.   

[PaulNewman]

Wow.  Some of these results are going to keep out at least several teams that have had great seasons.  A shame really.  Doesn't really hurt these top teams that lose and is great for teams that qualify who otherwise would not have, but seems really unfair for the almost top teams who will miss out.