Top Conferences and NCAA Bids

[Ron Boerger]

Wow.  Some of these results are going to keep out at least several teams that have had great seasons.  A shame really.  Doesn't really hurt these top teams that lose and is great for teams that qualify who otherwise would not have, but seems really unfair for the almost top teams who will miss out.

Always the way this time of year, tho Messiah losing is a shocker the likes of which we rarely see.

Southwestern (#5 South) pulled off a 1-0 upset of Trinity TX (#1 South) earlier this year despite a similar 38-4 shot deficit.   They'll probably face each other again in the SCAC championship on Sunday (to be held at Southwestern) and should they pull off another upset that would take away another Pool C bid.  I doubt SW would get a bid if they lose this weekend. 

[lastguyoffthebench]

Well atleast it's much better now than the days where there were only FOUR Pool C bids!

[KICKIN95]

Well atleast it's much better now than the days where there were only FOUR Pool C bids!

I thought that was Pool B that only got 4?

[lastguyoffthebench]

Well atleast it's much better now than the days where there were only FOUR Pool C bids!

I thought that was Pool B that only got 4?

I believe it was around 2005/2006 when it expanded from 44 teams to 57.     

[PaulNewman]

So Carleton gets by St. Olaf.  In another less advertised game, Catholic loses to Juniata, so Catholic now at risk after strong season?

[PaulNewman]

Christan, great job as always!

Interesting to me that you (and I assume committee) view ties as blemishes.  Do you think they give weight to quality away ties and/or less weight to home ties or close home wins?  Does Oberlin's win over DePauw count more because it was away?

Also curious about your thoughts re: Randolph, John Carroll, etc....basically any teams with gaudy records and especially ones that have been nationally ranked but not regionally ranked. 

Also was surprised you have Brandeis and Dickinson so high.  Obviously I'm missing something.  Given their slip-ups (middling conference showing for Brandeis and bad losses for Dickinson) how can there be such a clear-cut gap between them and a team like DePauw?

Seems like SOS involves a bit of luck.  Both DePauw and Kenyon scheduled Centre who would have been expected to have a much better year but didn't pan out that way.

[OWUSoccer]

I think the predictions were done based on guesses on committee selection, not who is most deserving.  Brandeis was already #2 in New England and won their only game this week, so can't imagine them dropping.  As the top-ranked Pool C team in New England that probably guarantees them a spot.

Dickinson has an extremely high strength-of-schedule and five wins over regionally-ranked teams.  Those are perhaps the top two criteria when we really get into Pool C.  When you compare them to DePauw, that's where the separation shows up.  While some of it may be scheduling luck, if memory serves Centre is usually regionally unranked or ranked very low, so even if they'd had a great year I don't know who they would have displaced in the Great Lakes rankings.

John Carroll doesn't have any good wins and one of the lowest SOS in Pool C plus some bad results so they're pretty firmly out IMO.  Randolph is a bit confusing - again, no good wins, but winning 17 games is no easy feat.  They're also coming from a conference that has made some tournament noise recently.

[OWUSoccer]

While we're at it, predictions?

18 seem clear to me, while the last one is tough.  Messiah, Montclair State, Brandeis, Carnegie Mellon, Dickinson, Salisbury, Wartburg, Williams, Kenyon, North Park, Carthage, Gustavus Adolphus, Gordon, Oberlin, Roger Williams, Catholic, Rutgers-Newark, and Luther.  Lucky No. 19? Oneonta State

While I don't think they necessarily should, I'm guessing Oneonta State gets the final bid.  If, as has been suggested previously, the committee really only looks at 8 teams at a time (the top Pool C team in each region) when making its selection, that would mean they would have to pass over Oneonta State 19 straight times.  I just have a hard time believing the East Region representative will let that happen, but who knows.

The same could be said for Texas-Dallas and Whitworth (3/4 in West), but the committee usually places a ton of emphasis on strength-of-schedule and they are tied for the lowest in Pool C.  The UAA is already getting 3 teams in so I don't think Emory goes.  MIT will be 8th in New England, and no other region seems to be going past 6th so I think they're out.  Same for St. Olaf, who will be 7th in the North, has a weak ranked-teams record (1-3) and would be the third bid for the MIAC.  I just don't see happening. 

The hard one for me is DePauw - I may be biased, but the NCAC has a pretty legitimate claim as the best conference in the country this year.  And, unlike the other 7 teams in the "Pick 'Em" group, they have no bad blemishes.  So while they may be 0-3-2 against ranked teams, they also haven't had any slip-ups (draws or losses) against unranked teams.  Still, doubtful the committee takes 4 NCAC teams, or 4 at-large teams from the Great Lakes region.  So that just lets in Oneonta.

[tjcummingsfan]

No Pool C bids for the Central Region?  That seems a bit bizarre, no?

[Thunder1]

No Pool C bids for the Central Region?  That seems a bit bizarre, no?

Very bizarre!  A very "east centric" tournament bracket.  Very sad not to see North Park or Carthage in.  Both very good teams. 

[Christan Shirk]

Carthage, even though I predicted the committee would select them, isn't a big surprise to be left out given the 7 losses, and personally I agree with it.  I just figured the Central region was still good for two at-large selections.  North Park as the No. 2 team in the Central region is a surprise omission. 

And who is the surprise inclusion?  Misericordia from the Mid-Atlantic. After Messiah and then the Centennial pair of F&M and Dickinson, I thought the Mid-Atlantic was rather weak.  So I figured maybe Catholic, but not Catholic and Misericordia.  I'll have to review how their number compare to North Park and Carthage as well as some of the other teams I had on my "bubble".

Overall, though, rather predictable selections based on the regional rankings and knowledge of past year's selections.  And that's the intent: that there's no real surprises and teams have a good sense where they stand before today.

[Thunder1]

Carthage, even though I predicted the committee would select them, isn't a big surprise to be left out given the 7 losses, and personally I agree with it.  I just figured the Central region was still good for two at-large selections.  North Park as the No. 2 team in the Central region is a surprise omission. 

And who is the surprise inclusion?  Misericordia from the Mid-Atlantic. After Messiah and then the Centennial pair of F&M and Dickinson, I thought the Mid-Atlantic was rather weak.  So I figured maybe Catholic, but not Catholic and Misericordia.  I'll have to review how their number compare to North Park and Carthage as well as some of the other teams I had on my "bubble".

Overall, though, rather predictable selections based on the regional rankings and knowledge of past year's selections.  And that's the intent: that there's no real surprises and teams have a good sense where they stand before today.

Interested to get your thoughts on having Ohio Wesleyan, Messiah and Wheaton all in the same quarter of the bracket.

[PaulNewman]

Very happy for Oberlin.  First bid ever apparently.  Tough for DePauw.  Play in a quality conference, 14-2-3.  Just by the eye test they look better that some of the teams considered locks from other regions.  However, it was pretty obvious a week or so ago that someone out of Kenyon, Oberlin and DePauw was going to be bitterly disappointed.  MidAtlantic really did well with both Catholic and Misercordia.

Speaking of OWU, Messiah and Wheaton all in the same quarter, here is Kenyon's road to the final four -- Ohio Northern (national runnerup), Wheaton on Wheaton's home pitch, OWU (again), and then merely Messiah.  I like Oberlin's draw much better.  Some other teams (Williams for one) got great draws.

[PaulNewman]

OWU (36), Wheaton (34) and Messiah (24) also by far and away the 3 schools with most NCAA appearances.

[PaulNewman]

Best teams not to get in?  DePauw, Emory, North Park, Carthage, Randolph, Wesleyan?