Top Conferences and NCAA Bids

Started by PaulNewman, August 06, 2013, 09:36:24 PM

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Puerco Espin

Quote from: Midwest Soccer on December 13, 2013, 11:54:25 AM
NCAC....

Good topic for discussion. Messiah is on another level clearly.

Then you have to ask yourself how you measure success to rate the next few. Loras has been to 4 final 4's since 2007 which is 2nd only to Messiah which is remarkable. Williams has actually been to 3 since 2009 as well but I don't think anyone measures them in the same talks as your Messiah's, Wheaton's, Loras', OWU's, etc.

OWU has been to 2 final fours since 2006. Excluding the 2 less final 4 appearances, the only thing OWU has on Loras (excluding regular season records) in that same time span is a National Title.

Messiah, Wheaton, Trinity, and OWU I think are historically the top 4 programs, but with early tournament exits peppering Wheaton, Trinity, and OWU over the last decade or so, programs like Loras are starting to chip away and etch their name at the top of the list.

Currently it's hard to disagree with your order.

I think once Loras get the monkey off their back in the Final 4 game they will raise a trophy. I see they return a lot of talent so they should be fun to watch again.

Side note: All-americans came out today. And before the Loras faithful can jump at it, I will jump at it for them. Pretty ridiculous that Loras only got 1 all-american in Cavers. He's a first team talent as well. Figura should be on there. I've particularly been impressed with Fluegel as their season wore on also.

Completely baffled by the All-American selections. Granted, Cavers did not have the numbers that he did in 2012, but his impact on the pitch is matched by few. Are these selections based primarily on statistics? If so, Fluegel, who had similar numbers to Cavers in 2012 (8G-5A) was left off.

Loras could very well be feeling the effect of being 25+ deep. This results in fewer minutes for the top tier players and less scoring chances. I can sit on the board and complain for hours but that won't solve anything at this point. I can say first-hand that these postseason awards are not what the Loras players are in search of. Not to sound cliche, but they have bought into this system that Rothert has instituted, which means sacrificing themselves for the program.

I'm very interested to see what D3Soccer.com does with their All-American selections...
NCAA Final Four: 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2015
NCAA Sweet 16: 2005, 2009, 2010, 2014
NCAA Tournament: 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015
IIAC Champions: 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

Midwest Soccer

Puerco

I too am looking forward to the d3soccer.com selections. In my opinion, those are always a little more accurate. But you are spot on with the fact that Loras is feeling the effects of playing 25+....if you look at recent previous years, teams who go deep in the tournament and also deep into their bench don't necessarily get rewarded with the individual post-season accolades we're talking about. However, the fact that Loras has bought into Rothert's system you speak of and don't care about the awards is just another sign that Loras is becoming one of the more elite programs.

Messiah justly gets 3 all-americans, Robbins should probably be a 1st team along with Payne and Wood. How about Jack Thompson being a 2nd team all-region selection? Talk about a snub. Jack may be the most potent player on that team demonstrated by his 18 or so assists. Brian Ramirez would be another worthy selection but Division III will always be geographically driven to select these teams.

Can anyone speak on behalf of the forwards from Gordon and Randolph? Especially Randolph, having a 1st teamer from a team who didn't qualify for the tournament is a bit ridiculous if you ask me. Same with Ben Brewster and Bowdoin. Not to say these players aren't good, but these awards usually cater to those players on teams with post-seasons. Just at first glance I counted 10 players from teams who didn't have a post-season existing in the NCAA tournament. I know it's not a requirement to be in the tournament in order to be an all-american but.....I think you guys get my point.

PaulNewman

 Cavers and Robbins on 3rd team is a joke, but I guess to make the list at all is pretty fortunate.  There are so many players in D3 with such small shades of difference.

nescac1

#303
I think you are more than a bit unfair to NESCAC, mjdNJDevils.  NESCAC is an incredibly strong conference, across-the-board, year in and year out.  It may not always have one nationally dominant team, but its depth is its hallmark, and the quality of soccer is consistently high -- NESCAC teams don't have the luxury of beating up on 4-5 really bad teams each year, like in many conferences.  This year NESCAC did not have a truly dominant team, but FOUR different teams in the conference featured all-American players (five players total), and you extrapolate WAY too much from ONE rough day vs. Messiah (hardly the only team in the NCAA to experience that) by a young Williams team that frankly overachieved this season. 

Last year, Williams lost by one goal in the Final Four -- hardly an embarrassing performance -- and could easily have won that game, several golden opportunities missed.  And last year, frankly, Amherst was an absolutely dominant team, really should have beaten Williams to make the Final Four, and would have likely won in the semifinal and given Messiah a run for its money in the title tilt -- that 2012 Amherst squad was  loaded.  In 2009, Williams lost to Messiah 2-1 in the Final Four, again, a very respectable (at a minimum) performance.  And of course you conveniently omit the fact that Middlebury in 2008 (or maybe 2007, can't recall) was one of the VERY few non-Messiah schools to win the national championship in recent years.  And going back farther, Williams also owns a national title and a second-place finish (to a team that soon thereafter moved up a division) in the 1990s.  Historically, NESCAC has performed in the Final Four about as well as you would expect based on random chance -- they certainly have not generally been overmatched.  Messiah is the dominant force in Division III, and have embarrassed more than one team from various conferences even deep into the tournament.  But the NESCAC powers are right there with the other teams in the next tier, based on historical performance.  If NESCAC squads consistently made the Final Four and then got destroyed, you'd have a point, but that is not even close to what has happened -- this year was an aberration.  NESCAC teams, rather, make the Final Four because they are among the 4-5 best teams in the nation.  NESCAC is also the only conference that has had THREE teams that have made numerous deep tourney runs and been legitimate national title contenders over the past decade. 

Just look at the number of all-American players from NESCAC this year, or the number of players who have gone on to play high-level professional soccer from the conference.  The talent level in the league is absolutely legit -- this year, it just happened to be more widely dispersed rather than heavily concentrated in a few top teams. 

Midwest Soccer

Quote from: nescac1 on December 14, 2013, 08:00:07 AMJust look at the number of all-American players from NESCAC this year, or the number of players who have gone on to play high-level professional soccer from the conference.  The talent level in the league is absolutely legit -- this year, it just happened to be more widely dispersed rather than heavily concentrated in a few top teams.

Who from the NESCAC has gone on to play high-level professional soccer? Khari Stephenson comes to mind but I'm having trouble thinking of others.

In 2007, I believe Middlebury became the first team to ever fail to register a goal at the final 4 and win the national championship. That Trinity team they beat never trailed a game all season and were one of the best teams to ever come through Division III.

I'd hardly say that because Williams lost by 1 goal to Ohio Northern in 2012 that they had a good showing after ONU went on to get beat 5-1. I watched the ONU v Williams game. Anyone else who did knows the better team won, it was 3-1 until very late when Williams snuck one in to make it interesting. Doesn't bode well being outplayed by the team that went on to lose 5-1.

No offense, but I don't think NESCAC will get the respect you feel is deserved from some posters on this board until you start playing good programs from other regions. Not to say that there aren't good teams in the NESCAC, but if teams from the NESCAC start beating some other programs from outside their own conference then people will take notice.

lastguyoffthebench

#305
Quote from: Midwest Soccer on December 13, 2013, 12:32:33 PM
I mistakenly left off Stevens as another program that I think is coming on strong in the Division III soccer world. Making an appearance in the 2008 title game only to fall in PK's to Messiah....correct me if I'm wrong but didn't you guys beat Amherst pretty good in that final 4 game?

I'm with you on all your views of the NESCAC. Their schedule is frustrating because none of the better teams travel out of region to play any other good programs. And I hate the fact that most years, due to the scheduling, one NESCAC team will be in the final 4. Don't get me wrong, it's not like it's a walk in the park for that team to get there and I'm in no way taking away from the fact that it's difficult to win tournament games, let alone 4 of them. But I REALLY wish that NESCAC teams would be thrown into different pods, if for no other reason, to see how they fare against other conferences. I'd like to see Amherst or Williams travel to play a good program out of region.


And NCAC, I was just typing out that Calvin should be included as well. Historically but also recently. Despite missing the tournament this year (and playing one of the hardest non-conference schedules in the country), from 2009-2011 they had 2 appearances in the National Championship game (most besides Messiah in same time-frame) and the other year was a loss in PK's in the elite 8.



Why are the Messiah vs Steven Tech PKs not on youtube?  Sorry mjd, but the 3 consecutive saves by Blossey (Brandt deciding to sub him in) was amazing to watch.   That was a great game overall.

Very excellent points about the NESCAC, and how NCAA managed to put Rutgers-Newark, Roger Williams, Williams, Brandeis in that pod (teams that did not win their conference and Brandeis was 4th or 5th in the UAA)... whereas York/Stevens/Camden/Montclair/CMU/Rochester were all grouped together.   Total joke.

I used to mention this on the d3soccer.net forum about how it would be a great thing if the NJAC and NESCAC had a tourney challenge like the ACC B10 does in basketball.   Could be held at a neutral location midway between NJ and Mass, pitting the top 8 teams in some random draw against each other.   Or possibly hosted by an NJAC school and NESCAC school on alternating years.

nescac1

#306
Seems like you hold NESCAC soccer to an impossible high standard.  How many other conferences have had two different programs win national titles?  I guess when even a national championship win isn't good enough to impress (in Midd's case), there isn't really much more I can say.  All I know is, TWO teams have won national titles other than Messiah in the past decade, and one of them was from NESCAC.  Sorry their national title wasn't stylish enough for you, but the fact is, they have a national title, which is more than Loras can say.   I promise you every single Midwest team would gladly have traded places with Midd (a true defensive juggernaut with a fantastic GK) that year.  In fact, I don't really understand why Loras should be considered (but not NESCAC) a great national power when they've never won a SINGLE game in a SINGLE Final Four.  They've yet to -- unlike NESCAC teams -- prove anything on the big stage.  I'm not knocking Loras -- I think they are a great program.  But they haven't proven to be a better program over the last decade than Amherst, Williams, or Midd, as they too have fallen victim to the Messiah juggernaut (or this year, lost to another team). 

NESCAC teams aren't going to start flying out to Ohio to play soccer games regularly.  I'm sure they would happily host top teams from other regions, but I don't see Loras and Ohio Wesleyan and such rushing out to head to Williamstown or Middlebury, either.  I don't claim that the Midwest teams are not worthy because they are "afraid" to come to New England and face the best from NESCAC.  In addition to playing in arguably the deepest conference (and inarguably one of the top) in Division III soccer, many NESCAC teams regularly play other top teams from their region.  In a fairly short season (remember, NESCAC starts practicing / playing later than other schools), there are very few non-conference games, and those are, justifiably, going to be played primarily vs. regional rivals.  Coaches from around the country, who I trust more than posters with a gripe, consistently recognize just how good NESCAC soccer is by the number of players earning individual all-American honors. 

What's most ridiculous is that because a team that Williams lost to by a single goal lost to Messiah in a blow-out in the title, suddenly, Williams (which was, again, only the second-best NESCAC squad that season) was not a legitimate Final Four team that year.  And they had to beat one of the top 2-3 teams in the country last year (believe me they were better than Ohio Northern) just to get to the Final Four. 

By your logic, there was not a SINGLE Division III team, other than Messiah, who deserved to be a Final Four team in 2004, 2006, and 2012, because in each of those years, Messiah blew out a team in the championship game (who of course in turn had beaten every other team it previously faced in the tourney).  Messiah is often on a whole different level from the rest of Division III.  But the top teams in NESCAC have proven that they belong squarely in the next tier.  Or are you saying that Wheaton (IL), UC Santa Cruz, and Ohio Northern were all crappy, undeserving teams because they, too, were dominated by Messiah in the Final Four?   There is clearly no shame in making a Final Four and losing badly to Messiah -- if there was, plenty of Final Four teams would be considered illegitimate. 

Here are the list of professional soccer players from Williams alone:

http://static.psbin.com/t/o/7xkrbnh7sphgep/Ephs_to_the_Pros.pdf


PaulNewman

nescac1, I think everyone recognizes that the NESCAC is a strong conference.  What I've sensed is a shift from NESCAC being considered the default best conference to just one of the best.  I started this thread with the idea that NESCAC and the UAA are the two strongest, with the UAA perhaps getting the nod as the current #1.  I was asking which other conferences are close, like #3 thru #5.  And of course I had an agenda promoting that the NCAC should be among the conferences where 3 NCAA bids should be considered reasonable (and to my delight the NCAC did get 3 bids for the first time and arguably could have had 4 with DePauw left out who was nationally-ranked from start to finish with only 2 losses). 

What I'm reading here is that the NESCAC shouldn't be awarded #1 status just by default any longer.  There is a theme about the NESCAC being too insular and then having a road to the final four that largely involves beating another NESCAC team.  Aren't we all just a little tired of the Williams-Amherst matchup?  The insularity theme comes from several angles -- 1) the NESCAC initially refused to participate in the NCAA tourney; 2) the NESCAC, perhaps to some degree rightly, considers itself distinct from the rest of D3 with the idea of being a select conference of the New England elite academic institutions, even though other conferences are also laden with elite academic D3s; 3) the NESCAC plays less games and for the most part out-of-conference schedules against overmatched local D3s; and 4) advancing in the NCAA tournament often means beating these same overmatched local D3s. 

Over the last two years the NESCAC wins that stand out in my mind are Williams beating Brandeis twice in the sweet sixteen (and this year a Brandeis team that certainly was quite good but still only mid-table in the UAA), Tufts beating Brandeis mid-season, and Amherst squeaking by SLU (frankly a team that would have given Messiah a much better game than Williams did).

In terms of top conferences the NESCAC now has serious competition.  In addition to the UAA, there is the Centennial where usual bottom feeder Ursinus beat some big boys, and where the top 4-5 teams likely could compete on pretty equal footing with the toop 4-5 NESCACs.  By the way, the NESCAC at least recently also has had its bottom feeders, and the up-and-comers like Tufts and Conn College haven't exactly knocked the door down (although I think Tufts will next year).  The is of course the "gritty" NJAC and also the Liberty, NCAC, etc.  And what would happen if the top 3 NESCACs went head-to-head with Loras/Wartburg/Luther?  Because D3 does tend to be very eastern and New England-centric, we easterners especially don't tend to think about or include in the discussion other regions/teams being undersold or unfairly left out of the tournament....Calvin, DePauw, North Park, Oglethorpe, Randolph, etc.

At a minimum more NESCAC teams could play SLU, Rochester, Hobart, Union, Vassar, etc during the regular season and all of the PA/NJ schools are driveable as well.  Don't want to drive?  I'm sure OWU, Messiah, Franklin&Marshall, Kenyon, Dickinson, Christopher Newport, York, Salisbury, Stevens, etc would make the trip to New England for an early season weekend against two NESCAC foes.  And I am sure the NESCAC teams would win their share of these type of games, and I'm pretty sure everyone would benefit.

Side note:  there have been numerous references to Messiah's scoreline against Ohio Northern.  Messiah can lay a 5-1 beating on any D3 team depending on the day.  I think too much is made of that one game in evaluating how good (or not good) Ohio Northern was in 2012.  It's not like ONU backed into the final four.

lastguyoffthebench


NJAC have won 5 National Champions (Rowan 2x, Kean, TCNJ, and Stockton), with Camden being close to the 5th team.

PaulNewman

nescac1, Iowa is a hike but I'm sure you could get OWU to spend a weekend in New England.  They went to Virginia Beach 2 years ago and are always looking to play top-flight competition early in the season.  See if you can get Amherst or Williams to host an early season weekend tournament with OWU, Stevens, York, Swat, F&M, Messiah, etc.  Messiah will come because they went to OWU in 2011.

You keep mentioning the All-Americans.  Does NESCAC really have more proportionately than other conferences???

lastguyoffthebench

Hard to argue Cavers not being on 2nd team atleast, but that 1st team is a very great group.   Not a fan of only 3 midfielders. Cavers was a very special player and total game changer who's stat line didn't show it.

Can you imagine how many goals Wood and Payne could have really had this year if they played more than 1200 minutes.   I guess that's why Messiah doesn't totally annihilate teams in conference... 

nescac1

(1) I wish I had any influence over Williams and Amherst, but I certainly don't.  I would of course love to see them host a tournament featuring Messiah or OWU!  I don't believe they are ever afraid to play top-flight competition, but they definitely (despite having a ton of institutional wealth) have a very limited travel budget, so if reciprocity is part of the deal, it is unlikely to happen. 

(2) I am not someone who claims (and I don't see anyone who HAS) claimed that NESCAC is indisputably the best conference.  If that is the default perception, that is news to me.  I think it is indisputably in the top group of conferences, and I do believe that Midd, Amherst and Williams are three of the best programs in Division III and all belong in that next tier of 10-12 top programs following Messiah.  The attacks here go far beyond "NESCAC is not the best conference" -- that is a straw man, as no one has claimed that here as far as I am aware.

(3) Several of the NJAC titles came before NESCAC was first eligible to compete in the NCAAs (1993 -- and in the first two years of eligibility, Williams finished 2nd and 1st, nationally).  Williams could well have had a Messiah-esque run starting in the late 1980s had it been eligible, as most Williams observers believe that the 1988-89 era teams featuring Mike Masters and Dan Calichman were the best in Williams history.  I would certainly, in all events, group NJAC with NESCAC as top soccer powerhouses -- the two conferences have squared off many times in NCAA play, and typically -- albeit not always -- the games are highly competitive and evenly-matched. 

(4) re: all-Americans, it seems like NESCAC most years features a lot of all-American players from a broad group of schools in the conference.  My point is not to say NESCAC is best -- again, it's to say that coaches consistently recognize the talent level in NESCAC as nationally elite. 


Midwest Soccer

Messiah also went to that same Virginia Beach tournament in 2009 to play Christopher Newport and Virginia Wesleyan. As well as traveling to New York this year to play Oneonta St. one year after making the Final 4 and when they played Cal Lutheran this year, Cal Lutheran was ranked in the top 10 I believe. In 2010 OWU went to Wheaton as well the first weekend of the year. In 2011 Wheaton as well as Messiah both came to OWU (alternating weekends). These programs are making efforts to play each other.

NCAC--good point about making too much of the ONU scoreline, you are probably right that I have read too much into that. But in my opinion, ONU was the better team. No bias, just my opinion.

I also wasn't trying to say that Middlebury's national championship should be moot. Simply stating a pretty amazing fact that a team won the national championship without scoring a goal at the final 4. Winning a national championship, no matter how you do it, is something to hang your hat on. There are many ways to win one, they did it with defense.

You make valid points about other teams getting blown out by Messiah. With the recent trends of Messiah's dominance there certainly isn't much shame in losing by 3 or 4 goals to Messiah in the tournament, as NCAC said, any given day Messiah can hang that on just about anyone.

2003- Trinity
2007- Middlebury
2011- Ohio Wesleyan

When you look at it from 2000, it's pretty amazing that every other year the national championship has been won by Messiah.

I think there is a changing of the guard in regard to the top conference in Division III. I feel like it use to be unanimous that it was the NESCAC....I just don't think they are the unanimous choice anymore. Nothing personal.

PaulNewman

Midwest, on ONU, you mean stronger team than Williams in 2012, right?  And I agree.

nescac1, the NESCAC HAS been considered the default #1 conference for some time, with the recent concession of the UAA being in that discussion.  The fact that you are not claiming #1 status for NESCAC in itself represents a shift.  And I'm sure Messiah and OWU would be glad to play in a New England without reciprocity.  Of course it is odd that NESCAC schools have such limited travel budgets given that as you suggest they are far and away the wealthiest D3 institutions in the country (probably by far). 

The other suggestion which already has been mentioned earlier is to mix the NESCAC NCAA teams across at least two quadrants (so that we don't get continued All-NESCAC elite 8s). 

And I think you will be better represented next year.  I would expect Williams and/or Amherst, Tufts, and Middlebury to get bids with Wesleyan in the mix as well.

PaulNewman

BTW, the biggest obstacle to teams traveling to New England for an early season tournament is that most teams are looking to do that on that opening weekend before NESCAC schools start play.  All scenarios for some improved out-of-conference games involve the NESCAC compromising on their traditions in some regard.  But the problem is not other schools being unwilling to come play them in New England.  And there is NO excuse for more NESCACs not playing Rochester, SLU, Union, Hobart, etc in their regular seasons.