Pool C -- 2013

[smedindy]

Fans of other pool "C" teams probably need Heidelberg to beat John Carroll. JCU's non-conference win over St. Norbert has to help them more than 'Berg's dismantling of Alma, even if the JCU win was non-region.

They are all "regional" games this year.  All D3 games get counted in the SOS math so long as you play a certain percentage of your games in region (I think it's 75%).

Either way, the winner of JCU/HBerg is about as close to lock status as anybody will get in this year's pool C. As long as the don't lose again to a not-UMU team.

The OAC isn't the lock that it's been for the last 20 years.   Any of the 3 could win it.    And all 3 finishing 9-1 is a distinct possibility.    H'Berg might have the toughest route to 10-0 as they play at JCU the week after hosting Mount.   Going to tough for Berg to rise again the  next week.  Especially if they beat Mount.

HSCoach - Are you Lou Holtzing your Raiders/  At least you're not saying those fine fellows at Muskingum could give us a great game!

[HScoach]

No "Holtzing".   Just my honest opinion.    Berg and JCU are much improved and Mount is young.

[wally_wabash]

I'll go ahead and move the projection into this forum.  Here we go. 

Pool A:

League	Team
ASC	UMHB
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	North Central
ECFC	Gallaudet
E8	Salisbury
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Wartburg
LL	Hobart
MAC	Lebanon Valley
MIAC	Bethel
MWC	Illinois College
MIAA	Adrian
NACC	Concordia (Wis.)
NCAC	Wabash
NEFC	Salve Regina
NJAC	TCNJ
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Hampden-Sydney
PAC	Washington & Jefferson
SCIAC	Redlands
UMAC	Greenville
USAC	Maryville
WIAC	UW-Whitewater

Coe out, Wartburg in (could have also gone with Dubuque there...either way, it doesn't affect the at-large situation below).  Also Huntingdon is out, Maryville is in.  That whole thing there gets messy if LaGrange wins out and Huntingdon beats Maryville in week 11. 

Pool B - In order of selection:
Millsaps (6-0, 0.571 SOS)
Texas Lutheran (5-0, 0.363 SOS)
Wesley (5-2, 0.689 SOS)

I think Millsaps is obvious at this point.  Texas Lutheran will rankle some, but undefeated is undefeated and we haven't seen undefeated teams get left out (post-1999....yes, I know undefeated teams got left out "back in the day" when there were only 8 teams in the tournament...the old days aren't relevant now).  I have Wesley juuuust barely hanging on.   It was a weird week for the Wolverines...they lost, but Salisbury picked up a big win which helps tremendously, but Huntingdon lost a head scratcher which doesn't help at all.  For the moment, Wesley has the only guaranteed quality win amongst the other teams in play for that last spot (basically WashU and Framingham...Centre and Rhodes are nice but both were beaten by WashU and I'm not sure they'll be in a regional ranking down the road) and that's why I went with Wesley, along with their impressive SOS.  Quick note on Wesley's SOS...that thing took a drop from 0.751 last week to 0.689 this week.  If that thing continues to fall over the next few weeks, Wesley's spot here becomes more tenuous than it already is. 

Pool C- In order of selection:
UW-Platteville (6-0, 0.439 SOS)
St. John Fisher (5-1, 0.580 SOS)
Pacific Lutheran (5-1, 0.572 SOS)
Wheaton (6-0, 0.558 SOS)
Concordia-Moorhead (5-1, 0.534 SOS)

It is admittedly a little weird to see the lowest SOS here on the top of the list, but I'm playing a little futures here...If Platteville (or Oshkosh or Whitewater) are a 1-loss runner up, they'll have a quality win or two and those SOSs are going up in a big way starting this week.  So I'm fudging just a little bit with the WIAC runner up. 

Fisher lost, but lands at the top of the East board.  I think the win over W&J helps them (I think WJ will be ranked when we get that far) and they have a big SOS.  Something to watch for here....last year the East RAC made a last-week secret ballot change to their rankings and pushed Bridgewater State up in front of a 2-loss Lycoming team and Bridgewater State wound up in the field, which nobody saw coming (except for Rossi...I think it was Rossi who was all over that).  That's me saying that if it turns out that WJ isn't a good win when it's time to cash in those at-large chips, Framingham (if they don't get picked up in Pool B) could be in play.  They have a solid SOS. 

Pacific Lutheran is next off...great SOS plus they now have a quality win over Pacific (which may not be a quality win once the regional rankings come along, but Pacific seems to be legit...they could stay in a top 10 in the West). 

Wheaton comes off next.  Nice SOS, but zero quality wins to this point.  That could change this coming Saturday with a game agianst IWU. 

And finally, I went with Concordia-Moorhead, who currently sits atop the MIAC at-large pecking order.  St. John's is definitely a quality win for the Cobbers. 

Left on my board are John Carroll, WashU, and Delaware Valley.  Coe would be the next team off in the West (not counting St. Johns as I stick to my one at-large team from each league rule).  Washington starts to become an interesting case if Centre and/or Rhodes get into a regional ranking and Whitewater keeps destroying everybody on their schedule except for WashU.  I think it's more likely that WashU would end up being selected in Pool B than Pool C, but the South region is really hurting for at-large teams and it's not all that hard to see the Bears on top of the South's Pool C table. 

[HScoach]

The ever-shrinking size of Pool C makes for an interesting problem come Selection Sunday.   A 9-1 OAC runner-up has always been a sure-fire lock to make the field, but that might not be the case with only 5 spots open.   With 9 in-conference games each year, the OAC has little chance to make their SoS diverge from 500 point that conferences like the CCIW and E-8 have.   And if H'Berg is the runner-up, they really screwed themselves by playing Alma.   Whereas Mount beat Franklin who should be regionally ranked and win the HCAC and John Carrol beat St Norbert who could finish 9-1 themselves.   

Though I don't want to be in this position, the surest Pool C qualifier from the OAC would be Mount Union.    Would be awfully hard to keep the defending and 11-time National Champion out of the field simply because their SoS number isn't much above 500.   In my mind John Carroll has a good chance to make it at 9-1 if they get there based on a quality opener and they would have beaten either H'Berg or Mount to end the year.   H'Berg is the most sketchy due to the Alma opener.     What becomes really messy is if all 3 finish 9-1.   I have no idea what the OAC's tie breaker is, but knowing the geniuses in the league office it's probably something like the old Big Ten Rose Bowl rule.

[d-train]

Only 4 Pool C's (per this morning's podcast)?! Yikes!

[Pat Coleman]

Wait, it turns out the handbook is wrong. I'll explain on the front page.

[AO]

Wait, it turns out the handbook is wrong.

[Ralph Turner]

Wait, it turns out the handbook is wrong. I'll explain on the front page.

Okay, I have behaved myself since I got off frequent postings on the politics message board back in 2009, but this comment is just too ripe to pass over.

Which will be corrected first?

The Obamacare website?

Or the NCAA Division-III Championship Handbooks?

[ExTartanPlayer]

Wait, it turns out the handbook is wrong.

+K.  I lol'd.

[ExTartanPlayer]

The ever-shrinking size of Pool C makes for an interesting problem come Selection Sunday.   A 9-1 OAC runner-up has always been a sure-fire lock to make the field, but that might not be the case with only 5 spots open.   With 9 in-conference games each year, the OAC has little chance to make their SoS diverge from 500 point that conferences like the CCIW and E-8 have.   And if H'Berg is the runner-up, they really screwed themselves by playing Alma.   Whereas Mount beat Franklin who should be regionally ranked and win the HCAC and John Carrol beat St Norbert who could finish 9-1 themselves.   

Though I don't want to be in this position, the surest Pool C qualifier from the OAC would be Mount Union.    Would be awfully hard to keep the defending and 11-time National Champion out of the field simply because their SoS number isn't much above 500.   In my mind John Carroll has a good chance to make it at 9-1 if they get there based on a quality opener and they would have beaten either H'Berg or Mount to end the year.   H'Berg is the most sketchy due to the Alma opener.     What becomes really messy is if all 3 finish 9-1.   I have no idea what the OAC's tie breaker is, but knowing the geniuses in the league office it's probably something like the old Big Ten Rose Bowl rule.

I was kind of wondering this myself.  For the first time in a while, this seems like a realistic possibility in the OAC with three teams that have clearly distinguished themselves from the rest of the field.

WITHOUT considering the "on paper" criteria, I would think that a 9-1 OAC runner up is about as strong as it gets in Pool C, but the criteria exist for a reason; we can't just use the "eyeball test" because that's about as unfair as it gets.

I have previously stated, and stand by this, that no one should truly "count" on a Pool C berth and that we should have a "win your league or don't complain" attitude.  As you've alluded, for the OAC's top three, the playoffs just start a few weeks early

As far as their chances: any potential Pool C candidate needs to root for all conference favorites to keep winning and for every team that already has a loss to take another (example: now that St. John Fisher has lost to Salisbury, the OAC/CCIW/WIAC runners-up will be in direct competition with a potentially 9-1 St. John Fisher for a Pool C bid; they need to hope that Fisher takes a second loss somewhere along the way).

[Pat Coleman]

Paging Ralph Turner. Ralph Turner, please pick up the courtesy phone:

http://www.d3football.com/notables/2013/10/playoff-adjustment

[Ralph Turner]

Paging Ralph Turner. Ralph Turner, please pick up the courtesy phone:

http://www.d3football.com/notables/2013/10/playoff-adjustment

Thanks.  When I went to the front page earlier, I missed the link.

The MASCAC pulling out of the NEFC certainly tightened the noose on Pool C.  IMHO, there is a huge difference between the 6th best Pool C team staying home and the 7th.

[Pat Coleman]

Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.

Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?

[NCF]

Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.

Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?

I hope they take one someday!

[ExTartanPlayer]

Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.

Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?

I know this is probably not how it works, but I'm laughing at the image of some NCAA rep calling either the NESCAC office or the NESCAC champion's AD to congratulate them on their playoff invitation and make arrangements for the first-round game, only to be told "Uh, we don't play in the playoffs."